Congratulations! The war is over! Now what?

darrell wrote:
Quote: A Rising Thunder: “So, I repeat the question. Are we in agreement that we should authorize Admiral Kingsford’s commerce and infrastructure-raiding strategy?”
No one spoke. But then, slowly, one by one, heads nodded all around the table.


If they are smart and stick to commerce raiding only, the SL won't give "lots of opportunity" to harden resistance in the GA, nor will the GE be able to counter attack solarian targets.

What are the chances that the commerce raiding strategy will work in any way shape or form?

They might grab the odd freighter but even the weakest system defence would inflict tremendous losses on the SLN, losing 5 BC's for 50 or 60 LAC's wouldn't be seen as a good trade off.



And from the looks of it, the Mandarins are going to try to keep member systems in the League by force, which means for the GA to succeed they come in with a fleet of their own and offer protection and economic benefits to the seceding system and they look like the hero's while the League and the SLN will look like the incompetents they are. And it will spread like wildfire when other systems starting inviting GA forces to protect them from "their" government because they want to secede.

darrell wrote:Quote: A Rising Thunder: “So, I repeat the question. Are we in agreement that we should authorize Admiral Kingsford’s commerce and infrastructure-raiding strategy?”
No one spoke. But then, slowly, one by one, heads nodded all around the table.


If they are smart and stick to commerce raiding only, the SL won't give "lots of opportunity" to harden resistance in the GA, nor will the GE be able to counter attack solarian targets.

The point I keep trying to make is that the GA should NOT be "counter-attacking Solarian targets" -- at least not in the Core worlds. They should be treating the SLN the same way they treated "Silesian Pirates" funded by Manpower; precisely targeted expeditions against bases supporting commerce and infrastructure raids.

The primary military element of the GA's war against the League is going to be Commerce Protection and restricting League commerce access to wormholes.

Also, I'm not sure what you mean by "harden resistance in the GA." It is the Solarian League Core and Shell that should not be "hardened" by the GA that is the potential failure point of the GA being overly aggressive.

Adm Gold Peak's conquest of the Madras sector and (presumably) Mesa is possibly a step too far, although that can be argued both ways. Conquest of Madras was necessary as that was the immediate source of attacks and intrigue against the SEM, and Mesa wasn't part of the League.

Any military action not associated with commerce or infrastructure protection has to be carefully considered. Support of "liberation" groups in the Verge is already on the table, thanks to the MAlign, but as long as the GA is opposing OFS in the Verge they aren't going to seem threatening to Core worlds; that is just "Neobarbs bashing each other."

Sigs wrote:And from the looks of it, the Mandarins are going to try to keep member systems in the League by force, which means for the GA to succeed they come in with a fleet of their own and offer protection and economic benefits ...

They don't really need to "come in with a fleet," they just need to provide (or broker) system defense systems sufficient to deter the SLN. Erewhon and Anderman will be able to make a mint providing "Haven Sector Quality" system defense pods, and ships.

As more and more systems secede, mutual defense against the SLN will improve with or without direct GA participation. Arms merchants will be far more influential in the break-up of the League than fleets will.

Sigs wrote:

darrell wrote:
Quote: A Rising Thunder: “So, I repeat the question. Are we in agreement that we should authorize Admiral Kingsford’s commerce and infrastructure-raiding strategy?”
No one spoke. But then, slowly, one by one, heads nodded all around the table.


If they are smart and stick to commerce raiding only, the SL won't give "lots of opportunity" to harden resistance in the GA, nor will the GE be able to counter attack solarian targets.

What are the chances that the commerce raiding strategy will work in any way shape or form?

They might grab the odd freighter but even the weakest system defence would inflict tremendous losses on the SLN, losing 5 BC's for 50 or 60 LAC's wouldn't be seen as a good trade off.



And from the looks of it, the Mandarins are going to try to keep member systems in the League by force, which means for the GA to succeed they come in with a fleet of their own and offer protection and economic benefits to the seceding system and they look like the hero's while the League and the SLN will look like the incompetents they are. And it will spread like wildfire when other systems starting inviting GA forces to protect them from "their" government because they want to secede.

Well, if they throw 500 BCs at the GA's rear areas, the odds are actually quite good someone will find a detachment somewhere that only has legacy ships(perhaps an outsystem convoy escort), as the vast majority of the new ships are on the front lines or protecting critical locations.

The problem is, their overall operation has then spent 490 or 495 BCs to kill perhaps a dozen or a score of the RMN's oldest and outmoded ships still in service. Whilst this is vastly more than Battle Fleet has accomplished, it's still not a war-winning exchange ratio.

I can't remember the exact details of Kingsford's strategy - was he going after Haven as well or just Manticore's Silesia and Talbott quadrants?

Don't suppose it makes much difference either way. If he's attacking Havenite territory, he'll be going up against defenses prepared for Eighth Fleet's raids...

drothgery wrote:

HB of CJ wrote:I happily give up here. Too much time spent in this excellent forum. It would take days to explain to everybody the historical events of WW2. What will happen will happen with the HH future books. I look extremely forward to the next 2-3 titles.

And we keep trying to explain to you why that parallel does not apply.

Try this scenerio:

Instead of 2,000 ships, the GA has 10,000 SD's with an acceleration of 500 G's
Instead of 2,000 ships, the SL has 100 SD's with an acceleration of 400 G's

The GA has ghostrider but not FTL communications (radar) and apollo.
The SL has FTL communications and Apollo.

Instead of haven being able to build 10-20 new SD's a month, the GA can only build 1 new SD a month.
Instead of building 1 new SD a month, the SL could build 20 a month.

My scenerio would fit the US vs Japan setup.

IF AND ONLY IF the SL had superior warships and technology, as well as CURRENT superior manufacturing, but a smaller fleet, the GA would run rampant for a year or two, then the SL would clean the GA clock.

Instead, the SL has INFERIOR warships and technology, and it's CURRENT warship manufacturing is 1/10 that of Haven. under this set of paradigms, it will take at least a decade before the SL would be able to match the GA, and this would happen only if the GA allowed it.

The GA wouldn't need to occupy the SL to neutralize it, just take out it's SD's and any shipyard capable of manufacturing SD's.

Technically, when measuring the ability to build combat relevant ships, the SL has a warship manufacturing capability of zero.

kzt wrote:

drothgery wrote:- The Grand Alliance is not made up of Nazis and Imperial Japanese. The average citizen of League knows very well that even if under some bizarre circumstance the Grand Alliance dropped an occupation force on Sol, it wouldn't be any more repressive than the League government and would be more competent.

No they don't. Why would they possibly think that?

Because Beowulf is a major player in the Grand Alliance, and has been a League core member from the very beginning until a few months ago, and everyone knows Beowulfers? Because pretty much anyone who's been anywhere outside of the deep core went through Manticore on the way and noted that things there look just as high-tech and civilized as things back at home? Because anyone involved in interstellar commerce deals with Manticorans all the time, and has some idea of what they're like? Because they've been fed decades of pro-Haven spin during the Havenite wars, and so probably have a good opinion of Haven for the wrong reasons?

drothgery wrote:Because anyone involved in interstellar commerce deals with Manticorans all the time, and has some idea of what they're like? Because they've been fed decades of pro-Haven spin during the Havenite wars, and so probably have a good opinion of Haven for the wrong reasons?

Notice that David includes several SL officals who have been involved with Manticore in commerce. And they were relentlessly hostile to Manticore with pretty much zero respect for them or their prowess.

munroburton wrote:

Sigs wrote:What are the chances that the commerce raiding strategy will work in any way shape or form?

They might grab the odd freighter but even the weakest system defence would inflict tremendous losses on the SLN, losing 5 BC's for 50 or 60 LAC's wouldn't be seen as a good trade off.

And from the looks of it, the Mandarins are going to try to keep member systems in the League by force, which means for the GA to succeed they come in with a fleet of their own and offer protection and economic benefits to the seceding system and they look like the hero's while the League and the SLN will look like the incompetents they are. And it will spread like wildfire when other systems starting inviting GA forces to protect them from "their" government because they want to secede.

Well, if they throw 500 BCs at the GA's rear areas, the odds are actually quite good someone will find a detachment somewhere that only has legacy ships(perhaps an outsystem convoy escort), as the vast majority of the new ships are on the front lines or protecting critical locations.

The problem is, their overall operation has then spent 490 or 495 BCs to kill perhaps a dozen or a score of the RMN's oldest and outmoded ships still in service. Whilst this is vastly more than Battle Fleet has accomplished, it's still not a war-winning exchange ratio.

I can't remember the exact details of Kingsford's strategy - was he going after Haven as well or just Manticore's Silesia and Talbott quadrants?

Don't suppose it makes much difference either way. If he's attacking Havenite territory, he'll be going up against defenses prepared for Eighth Fleet's raids...

Panamax 2 ships are about 500K tons. Take the largest container ship, fully loaded, multiply by 10, and that is the cargo capacity of the average freighter.

Not counting silesia before annexation, most freighters don't travel in convoy in the honorverse. Most locations are relatively free of pirates and it is not economical for a ship to wait months for a handy warship going their way.

So yes, a commerce raiding strategy does have a good chance of success. Send out a bunch of DD's & CL's, if it one of the rare convoys don't leave stelth. if it is one of the way more numerous single freighters, one captured manty freighter and no one knows who captured it, or even the fact that it was captured for months.

Remember saltash, The govonor captured 2 manty freighters, and manticore wouldn't have known about it if it wasn't for a friendly andy freighter.

Just one of many scenerios: A SL DD or CL can enter a system outside detection range (most systems don't have deep space arrays) and wait in stealth. In a few weeks a manty freighter will come in range and be captured. leave the system with your prize and you can go to a nearby for your next ship. Rotate between 2-3 systems and you will be hard to find or stop.


Peep raiding in silesia used BC's because manticore used DD's and CL's for piracy patrol in silesia, but would have worked if they didn't run across a bunch of q-ships that had SD weapons.

kzt wrote:

darrell wrote:With talbot and silesea, the SEM can easily increase their shipbuilding 10 fold, if not more.

Considering that the current production rate of the SEM is ZERO, I'm sure they can. Eventually. After they build shipyards. After they build the industrial base to build shipyards. After they train people in how to run this industrial gear and build ships. How long does that take, and why is it so much faster for them than someone who already has a modern industrial base and an existing trained workforce.

And what happens when the GA shows up, punches out any defenses and dictates terms to a planet: You're conquered. We are granting an immediate parole, however, under the condition that you do not aid the SLN's war on us. Build no shipyards, build no weapons.

Building a shipyard takes time and even a DD can blow it to dust. If a few half-built yards eat a MDM in impact mode the Sollies will find it very hard to build new shipyards.