The Economics of Piracy

kzt wrote:

cthia wrote:[
It's beginning to sound like everyone is trying to force normalcy and its associated thinking onto pirates. These are not logical people, at least the logic as you and I know it. (I'm tentatively including you as having vision) And they, and therefore their thinking and lifestyle, aren't driven by common logic.

Why does a pirate decide to pirate anyways? It's because Murphy has beat the shit out of him so many times that they bunk together.

Piracy is a problem people. It is real. You all seem to be babies about it. Pirates don't just take what they "need to survive" from the "total booty available in the universe" like native American Indians who respect the cycle of life.

Street gangs are composed of people like that. Last I heard there were 50,000 members of the Gangster Disciples in Chicago. When was the last time they tried to hit Fort Knox? How about the Chicago Federal Reserve bank? Why not?

Because there is only one Fort Knox. And everyone has their eyes on it. It's never unsupported or traveling through treacherous avenues of space.


All pirates want to grab as big a score as possible. If you think any different, you're fooling yourself. Small minded thieves aren't pirates. They're thugs. Don't disrespect pirates by comparing them to thugs.


Pirates are thieves, yes. Criminals, yes. Murderers and rapists, yes. But above all, they are opportunists. And when opportunity knocks, they answer. They can't afford not to be at home. To think that Murphy's Law hasn't played itself out in the universe of piracy in so many ways in the Honorverse is ludicrous. In the many worlds of piracy and opportunities in the Honorverse, I suspect that any living pirate can tell you Sea Shantys that'll shiver ye timbers.

And some of you. You're excluded if you weren't present, seem to not be able to imagine that some outbound convoy, who were at some port awaiting military escort, are now in the outbound lane screaming bloody murder because their escort is suddenly headed elsewhere, and they are being ignored even though their captain is screaming "What about my escort!" All because of the confusion, shock and surprise of a Case Zulu that no one's informing you of.

So some poor sap has to make the big call. He has to send you about your business, because if you sit in the home system you could be destroyed anyways. And now they can't afford for that powerful escort to babysit you, when there may not be a Star Kingdom left anymore! He does what he can. He sends you a few tin-cans. And even they may ignore you, and decide to stay and fight as well!

For a pirate to engage in criminal acts is a crime - malum prohibitum. For pirates to think small minded is just plain wrong, it's a crime against nature, malum in se.

Fine. Let us modify kzt's analogy. By your logic, Chicago should have descended into complete anarchy as basic commerce slams to a halt. All those armoured cars transporting cash hither and yon have zero escort outside of the two person crew. Plenty of opportunity, minimal opposition, large swaths of unprotected routes. Just use some high calibre assault weapons or some RPGs to rob those, it is not as if anyone is going to care. Clearly, Chicago is now a desolate wasteland where a handful of refugees scratch out a living because the gangs have taken over.

Oh, wait, Chicago is still standing.

And by the way, your objection that "there is only one Fort Knox" is asinine. It is not as if there are unescorted multi-trillion cargos wandering around the Honoverse blindly either.

A Pirate is an opportunist, sure. But he's also going to be smart about it, and what he can and cannot afford to do.


The smart pirate takes smaller scores, because that's what can be relied upon to be regularly available and regularly disposed of safely for profit.
The smart pirate doesn't draw undue attention to himself and his operations.
The smart pirate plans around irregular small scores, because, frankly, a pirate will have dry spells where he's not making money on new prizes.



A once-in-a-lifetime mega score of a multi-trillion cargo is almost certainly something that you can't shift very easily. It's also the kind of thing that stays under escort at all times. That's ignoring the fact that it paints a massive target on you, even supposing you pull it off.
It's like looting the Louvre - or any major art museum - of its entire collection - how are you going to shift it all? Answer, you can't shift it quickly, you have to take time to move any of it safely.



In the Honorverse, the only for-profit pirates have been using light cruisers and smaller. The only times we've seen heavy cruisers or battlecruisers in the hands on non-state actors, they're either acting as a political movement's supporters/loyalists or as mercenaries, sometimes both. The Honorverse's Golden Age of Piracy is over.

Kytheros wrote:A Pirate is an opportunist, sure. But he's also going to be smart about it, and what he can and cannot afford to do.

That's my point as well. A pirate can't afford to ignore a score of a whole herd of buffalo corralled into one freighter when buffalo are so dry on the plains of Kansas. That isn't smart. How can you not expect that any pirate is looking for that one big score? The career expectancy of a pirate can't be as long as his life. Especially when you're on Harrington's short list. You can't keep going out on these excursions stealing nickel and dime booties for minimum wage.

Piracy is real in the Honorverse and very much alive. One, because the hunting grounds - therefore the policing grounds - are so immense.

Whereas, I do agree that the Golden Age of piracy is probably over; the Bronze Age isn't exactly slim pickings. Especially in Silesia.

Kytheros wrote:The smart pirate takes smaller scores, because that's what can be relied upon to be regularly available and regularly disposed of safely for profit.

Perhaps this is how it works in RFCs world. I don't know. Haven't discussed it with him. But in reality, in as huge an expanse as the Honorverse, I would imagine that a pirate takes whatever weakling that comes along in a back alley of space. The smaller shipments are probably more numerous and weakly guarded. A freighter partly loaded or fully loaded will both easily die with a freighter's buffalo gun. A pirate is supposed to pass up a score that size because he can't hide it all? In the immensity that is space? And I'm supposed to believe that he can't find any fences for it, in the immensity of space? With all the poor and corrupt governments? I'm supposed to believe, that the long history of piracy in the Honorverse hasn't produced a number of fences that pirates know about? I'm supposed to believe that when a pirate boards his catch and sees it too full of buffalo he throws it back into the ocean because it is too large a catch? I thought you only throw small fish back into the ocean. (Except my sister, who wants to keep them all for stew. lol)

Kytheros wrote:The smart pirate doesn't draw undue attention to himself and his operations.

Continuing to go out on small penny anty scores and getting picked up and put on a Harringron short list is calling attention to yourself, of the worst and quite possibly fatal kind. Getting in and getting out, doesn't.

Kytheros wrote:The smart pirate plans around irregular small scores, because, frankly, a pirate will have dry spells where he's not making money on new prizes.

A smart pirate plans around what's available. The plains are dry of buffalo. It's like saying that the fishing trawlers, who always have dry runs, are going to ignore an opportunity for a big catch because its too huge - when its so dry.

The only dry spell a pirate really worries about is the one caused as a result of being airlocked. So, get in. Get out.

Kytheros wrote:A once-in-a-lifetime mega score of a multi-trillion cargo is almost certainly something that you can't shift very easily. It's also the kind of thing that stays under escort at all times. That's ignoring the fact that it paints a massive target on you, even supposing you pull it off.

First off, let's not be so quick in assuming multi-trillion dollar shipments are rare. Freighters are designed to carry that much capacity for a reason. They need too! The demand is there. They are supplying goods to entire planets that has to last at least for months along their routes. You don't just order 18 palettes of commodity A. You order several billion. The supplier won't be back until the next season - if you're lucky and it's not shortstopped by another pirate named Murphy. So, multi-trillion dollar shipments seem large in our minds, but these are shipments in the Honorverse. And they are not escorted at all times. They can't be. Or piracy would be dead. Even textev states that they travel in herds when possible, for safety, when escorts aren't available.

It's like looting the Louvre - or any major art museum - of its entire collection - how are you going to shift it all? Answer, you can't shift it quickly, you have to take time to move any of it safely.

It is NOT like looting the Louvre! Many people are familiar with the Louvre's inventory. And it would be stolen on Earth and fenced on Earth. Big difference.

As opposed to stolen in the huge expanse of space and sold elsewhere in the huge expanse of space. When you steal in the Honorverse, your goods are already loaded in the getaway car. And it's always dark outside. And deserted! Besides, anyone looting the Louvre already has a buyer. Smuggling is their only problem. There is no immediate concern for customs in the Honorverse.

Kytheros wrote:In the Honorverse, the only for-profit pirates have been using light cruisers and smaller. The only times we've seen heavy cruisers or battlecruisers in the hands on non-state actors, they're either acting as a political movement's supporters/loyalists or as mercenaries, sometimes both. The Honorverse's Golden Age of Piracy is over.

The Bronze Age in Silesia is still pretty profitable.

Ok, the freighter is a multi-trillion dollar catch. So what. It is still consolidated and wrapped in a nice big pretty bow of one single freighter. With all of the corrupt systems, poor systems, and corrupt poor systems, and corrupt rich systems, fences are everywhere. Really, how hard can it be to fence in a huge ocean like space? Heck, the bright light given off from the huge smelters and welders can be visible for parsecs, and still not be seen.

lol

Potato wrote:Fine. Let us modify kzt's analogy. By your logic, Chicago should have descended into complete anarchy as basic commerce slams to a halt. All those armoured cars transporting cash hither and yon have zero escort outside of the two person crew. Plenty of opportunity, minimal opposition, large swaths of unprotected routes. Just use some high calibre assault weapons or some RPGs to rob those, it is not as if anyone is going to care. Clearly, Chicago is now a desolate wasteland where a handful of refugees scratch out a living because the gangs have taken over.

Oh, wait, Chicago is still standing.

And by the way, your objection that "there is only one Fort Knox" is asinine. It is not as if there are unescorted multi-trillion cargos wandering around the Honoverse blindly either.

No. By your logic - which I can't follow without a head&arse scratch. I don't see the similarity.

Chicago isn't in a backwater region of space where no one will hear you if you scream or set off alarms. And freighters aren't in a region of Chicago where the long arm of the law can be on top of you in minutes. In Chicago, a criminal can't outrun the radio. It's a very long distance call from a back alley lane in space, where essentially the operator, if you can get a dial tone, will have you on hold for weeks. Or months. Guns, torpedos, screams and missiles don't make a sound in space. Even if they do, who is around to hear?

cthia wrote:

Potato wrote:Fine. Let us modify kzt's analogy. By your logic, Chicago should have descended into complete anarchy as basic commerce slams to a halt. All those armoured cars transporting cash hither and yon have zero escort outside of the two person crew. Plenty of opportunity, minimal opposition, large swaths of unprotected routes. Just use some high calibre assault weapons or some RPGs to rob those, it is not as if anyone is going to care. Clearly, Chicago is now a desolate wasteland where a handful of refugees scratch out a living because the gangs have taken over.

Oh, wait, Chicago is still standing.

And by the way, your objection that "there is only one Fort Knox" is asinine. It is not as if there are unescorted multi-trillion cargos wandering around the Honoverse blindly either.

No. By your logic - which I can't follow without a head&arse scratch. I don't see the similarity.

Chicago isn't in a backwater region of space where no one will hear you if you scream or set off alarms. And freighters aren't in a region of Chicago where the long arm of the law can be on top of you in minutes. In Chicago, a criminal can't outrun the radio. It's a very long distance call from a back alley lane in space, where essentially the operator, if you can get a dial tone, will have you on hold for weeks. Or months. Guns, torpedos, screams and missiles don't make a sound in space. Even if they do, who is around to hear?

Ah, but remember that in RFC's universe pirates have to prey on ship in n-space near the edges of occupied systems. (Because ships in hyper are virtually immune from detection or interception). So you're never ambushed on a deserted highway, at worst your ambushed on the edge of a ghetto.
That still doesn't get you better police response from the ghetto, so your still screwed there. On the other hand nobody is shipping multi-trillion dollar once in a lifetime cargos to ghetto because the people in the ghetto can't afford to buy that.

The kind of ultra valuable cargo your talking about would be getting sent between wealthy system, which usually do have responsive police forces (in addition to the escort accompanying the freighter).

cthia wrote:

Potato wrote:Fine. Let us modify kzt's analogy. By your logic, Chicago should have descended into complete anarchy as basic commerce slams to a halt. All those armoured cars transporting cash hither and yon have zero escort outside of the two person crew. Plenty of opportunity, minimal opposition, large swaths of unprotected routes. Just use some high calibre assault weapons or some RPGs to rob those, it is not as if anyone is going to care. Clearly, Chicago is now a desolate wasteland where a handful of refugees scratch out a living because the gangs have taken over.

Oh, wait, Chicago is still standing.

And by the way, your objection that "there is only one Fort Knox" is asinine. It is not as if there are unescorted multi-trillion cargos wandering around the Honoverse blindly either.

No. By your logic - which I can't follow without a head&arse scratch. I don't see the similarity.

Chicago isn't in a backwater region of space where no one will hear you if you scream or set off alarms. And freighters aren't in a region of Chicago where the long arm of the law can be on top of you in minutes. In Chicago, a criminal can't outrun the radio. It's a very long distance call from a back alley lane in space, where essentially the operator, if you can get a dial tone, will have you on hold for weeks. Or months. Guns, torpedos, screams and missiles don't make a sound in space. Even if they do, who is around to hear?

Never mind Chicago. As the future capital of the Solarian League, that's a particularly bad example.

The point is, pirates very, very rarely intercept anything in hyperspace. Most hijacks are made by ships lurking around the least-time approaches to planets.

Now, if the only real windows of opportunity to intercept that is at the hyper limit of any system, whether inbound or outbound, then all piracy is essentially happening on the outskirts of cities, not out in the middle of the ocean or mountain boondocks.

Only really poor systems do not have the capability to police that volume of space. In other words, the kind of system that would not be receiving an unescorted multitrillion-dollar shipment.

I suspect that piracy may pay poorly(relative to the losses caused) in the Honorverse, due to the sheer volumes involved and the rules of supply and demand. Unless it's something very, very generic(like wheat), nobody's going to send ten million agricultural tractors somewhere, unless that destination actually has a demand for ten million tractors and has placed orders(this is probably why freighters are kept so much slower than courier boats - they conduct all the deals ahead of the freighters).

A pirate can hijack this shipment, but then has to decide whether he demands a ransom to complete the delivery or waits for his fence to dispose of all these tractors to alternative markets. In other words, shipments may become almost worthless anywhere other than their contracted destinations. Pennies on the megadollars once you fill the smaller demands elsewhere and the black market is flooded.

Let me rephrase things ... what gets more attention and draws more heat - a bunch of convenience or liquor stores getting robbed, or a big jewelry store or bank or casino getting hit?
The big jewelry store, bank, or casino of course.
Alternatively, what gets more attention and draws more heat - a bunch of muggings or an armored transport getting hijacked?
The armored transport, of course.
Sure, the big heists happen ... but not really that often compared to smaller ones.


That's not to say that pirates are going to let a mega score go after they grabbed it because it's "too valuable", but they're also not going to depend on huge scores.
Let's also be realistic ... the highest value to bulk items are going to be things like Kodiak Max pelts, or silverwood, and the like - non-Terran-origin biological luxury items. And there are going to be major limitations on how much of that you can harvest annually without hurting your long-term prospects for exploiting that resource.
So, yes, if you fill a big transport up with that kind of thing, you can easily get to trillions of dollars in value. But you won't - they're going to be a relatively small portion of a ship's total load, and the rest of the ship will be loaded with lower-value goods.
Remember, you got to your multi-trillion cargo by filling an 8 megaton cargo ship with nothing but marijuana at street prices. That's not exactly going to be a standard cargo.

Well, that's not entirely true ... I suppose if you managed to jack a transport carrying ammo (missiles, not pulser darts) and/or military spares you could easily get to the trillions, but that'd be risky.


Nobody is saying that epic scores couldn't happen.
What we're saying is that those scores would be extremely rare and can't be depended upon to be a pirate's sustenance - pirates have to sustain themselves on lesser paydays that happen more frequently.

cthia wrote:

Potato wrote:Fine. Let us modify kzt's analogy. By your logic, Chicago should have descended into complete anarchy as basic commerce slams to a halt. All those armoured cars transporting cash hither and yon have zero escort outside of the two person crew. Plenty of opportunity, minimal opposition, large swaths of unprotected routes. Just use some high calibre assault weapons or some RPGs to rob those, it is not as if anyone is going to care. Clearly, Chicago is now a desolate wasteland where a handful of refugees scratch out a living because the gangs have taken over.

Oh, wait, Chicago is still standing.

And by the way, your objection that "there is only one Fort Knox" is asinine. It is not as if there are unescorted multi-trillion cargos wandering around the Honoverse blindly either.

No. By your logic - which I can't follow without a head&arse scratch. I don't see the similarity.

Chicago isn't in a backwater region of space where no one will hear you if you scream or set off alarms. And freighters aren't in a region of Chicago where the long arm of the law can be on top of you in minutes. In Chicago, a criminal can't outrun the radio. It's a very long distance call from a back alley lane in space, where essentially the operator, if you can get a dial tone, will have you on hold for weeks. Or months. Guns, torpedos, screams and missiles don't make a sound in space. Even if they do, who is around to hear?

Jonathan_S wrote:Ah, but remember that in RFC's universe pirates have to prey on ship in n-space near the edges of occupied systems. (Because ships in hyper are virtually immune from detection or interception). So you're never ambushed on a deserted highway, at worst your ambushed on the edge of a ghetto.
That still doesn't get you better police response from the ghetto, so your still screwed there. On the other hand nobody is shipping multi-trillion dollar once in a lifetime cargos to ghetto because the people in the ghetto can't afford to buy that.

The kind of ultra valuable cargo your talking about would be getting sent between wealthy system, which usually do have responsive police forces (in addition to the escort accompanying the freighter).

Edges of ghettos are fine. It's worked so far. It is where the bears go to catch the salmon swimming upstream.

It seems that everyone is continuing to base their logic on 18-wheeler deliveries here on Earth that may have only one destination. A multi-trillion dollar freighter is probably going to tens of systems. A single system doesn't have to place that kind of order.

Moreover, even if it is only sent between wealthier systems - there are always poorer waypoints along the route. Would you expect a freighter to backtrack a few weeks or a month to bypass the next system because he's loaded and because the next system is in the ghetto? That may begin to happen, but it hasn't yet.

And I'm still not certain that at least half-trillion dollar shipments are not regular. Our math tells us that a single freighter can hold a theoretical max of ~ 2.2 trillion at high grade marijuana prices. A half-trillion dollar score may only be less than a quarter load. Surely there are more things much more valuable than marijuana. Here on Earth, a sister of mine has the ugliest damn $150,000 Louis Vuitton bag. An entire freighter load of those babies probably wouldn't be shipped, but there's an idea of valuable cargo. Kodiak max pelts were mentioned in storyline because they are expensive and probably easier to smuggle. NOT because they are the most valuable commodity. Just the most valuable smuggled commodity.

But seriously, why are freighters built to carry so much goods if they don't? My original point way back when dinosaurs roamed the forums, is this...

To a pirate, there are many big scores. A freighter only a third full can theoretically be worth trillions depending on the booty, and I couldn't understand why there weren't stories of rich pirates or families who made their fortune pirating, or why the cost of upgrading a ship is a concern.

And my original scenario supplied load, route, waypoints and payout.

And next time, don't be so dismissive when I say that Murphy oftentimes has his hand in things. What if a freighter gets a flat tire and has to divert to the nearest ghetto planet or be stranded?

A pirate doesn't need a anything heavier or more modern than a old frigate to catch merchants. There are only three things that a bigger ship gets for a pirate - (1) somewhat more endurance on station lurking for merchants, (2) more crew so as to put prize crews on more merchant ships before needing to stop, (3) increased ability to fight light warships that are usually used to hunt pirates or run escort on convoys.

1 is sort of meh - you probably need to get more crew and such every few months anyways.
2 is a mixed bag - more crew means more prize ships without taking breaks, but you're probably running up against endurance issues, and the more crew means the ships you do take are split between more people, so each individual crewmember gets less. And moving up in ship size is a massive increase in crew size.
3 is sort of meh as well - you shouldn't be fighting warships anyways, you should be running and hiding from them.


A bigger ship requires more ongoing expenses than a smaller one, and the difference between what you make on average when committing piracy with a frigate or destroyer and when committing piracy with a battlecruiser are likely fairly small.