The Economics of Piracy

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:You're still thinking rather small Sigs. A BC is for a score that's so large that it will have formidable escort, but also too large to pass up. Let's say this certain info comes to you, and you have access to a BC...

"In 3 months gentlemen, a shipment consisting of a single freighter is scheduled to travel along this route. She will be making port here, here and... ... ... here! Where she'll be the most loaded and vulnerable - like pushing baby chicks to a hungry crocodile. She'll be escorted with only two DDs, (possibly only one for at least three of the legs) and she's burning the marquee up with an astronomical price tag; 100 Trillion dollars people. With at most a pair of DDs. Or a singleton."

The odds of having reliable enough routing information to try that seem low, especially for a shipment so valuable it gets a heavy escort.

To some people the machine tools Manticore sent to Grayson were probably worth a fortune. But the chance you miss the once in a lifetime target (because it go rescheduled, or to a deceptive routing, or the escort was way heavier than expected, or just because the escorts ordered the crew to abandon ship and nuked the freighter when they realized they couldn't save it... The odds just don't seem good. And if you blow away a couple of DDs to try and take a super rich prize the odds are the parent navy of those DDs will make it their mission in life to hunt you to the ends of the galaxy.
It's one thing if you can hide behind a government that's got a navy to stand up to that (aka a privateer), but relying on hiding your base, or yourself, indefinitely seems risky.

Sooner or later your old crew is going to start to brag, or get picked up on another pirate ship and trade details in exchange for your life. And then you've got a vengeful navy on your tail and (hopefully) one BC to stand them off... Oops.

All too true Jonathan. But that type of payout beckons to the criminally insane like a beacon in the night. Every single pirate will be a millionaire. You expect run of the mill pirates, who've been scraping by all their lives to pass on that sort of a one time slam bam thank you mam? Newsflash! Many men don't have the sort of mettle it requires to pass on those, even though they lack the wood to take advantage of it.

Besides, everyone on that ship are patsies for the uphill flow of money anyways. Some guy is hiding behind so many cutouts that it's almost criminal to search for him. Only the little big pirates who couldn't pass on the one sure rags-to-riches story might be tracked down. In fact, they may be murdered by the guy at the top to erase loose ends!

The only thing that can defeat gravity is the uphill flow of money.

A huge score like you postulate is the kind of thing that is (a) already under escort, (b) extremely difficult to discretely convert to liquid funds quickly, (c) distributed and concealed in smaller shipments, and/or (d) is a hired hit*.
*A hired hit might have ships provided that you can keep afterwards, depending on the deal. Of course, said provided ship or ships might also include remote detonated nukes to disappear the evidence. Plus, with a hired hit, you're not getting anywhere near the full value of the target, at best you're getting a small fixed percentage and a set fee.


Most of the profit from any given pirate hit isn't actually ending up in the hands of the people that get executed for piracy (ie, are out in ships taking other ships). They're getting a tiny percentage. Nobody further up the chain really cares enough to subsidize anything more than a light cruiser as a regular raider if their incentive is making money.


By the time pirates who are in it for the money can afford to both buy and maintain a battlecruiser, they have made enough to either safely retire wealthy and/or promote themselves out of the line of fire into a rear echelon type. In either case, they have no interest in shelling out big money for a battlecruiser that they're not going to use themselves and someone else is going to use and possibly loose.
In addition, generally hostile third parties with battlecruisers (or heavy cruisers, really) are priority targets for anyone and everyone interested in maintaining general peace and security.


Most pirates are only loosely organized.


If you're financing pirates and their support network for profit as the primary goal, and have X amount of resources, where are you going to spend most of your money? Where it will make you the most money - and that, for piracy, is on many more smaller, faster ships, than on one battlecruiser. Each small ship only needs to take one prize and its paid for, and every one after that is making you a profit, and you can afford to replace small ships and their crews much more readily than a battlecruiser. In addition, small ships are a lot easier to acquire without drawing attention, and small ships being pirates draw a lot less attention than a battlecruiser.
For that matter, you'll make more money faster with a bunch of small ships than you will with one big one, because even if there's a 50% miss rate on small ship interceptions, the collective group of small ships will be making many more interceptions than the one big ship.

Kytheros wrote:A huge score like you postulate is the kind of thing that is (a) already under escort, (b) extremely difficult to discretely convert to liquid funds quickly, (c) distributed and concealed in smaller shipments, and/or (d) is a hired hit*.
*A hired hit might have ships provided that you can keep afterwards, depending on the deal. Of course, said provided ship or ships might also include remote detonated nukes to disappear the evidence. Plus, with a hired hit, you're not getting anywhere near the full value of the target, at best you're getting a small fixed percentage and a set fee.


Most of the profit from any given pirate hit isn't actually ending up in the hands of the people that get executed for piracy (ie, are out in ships taking other ships). They're getting a tiny percentage. Nobody further up the chain really cares enough to subsidize anything more than a light cruiser as a regular raider if their incentive is making money.


By the time pirates who are in it for the money can afford to both buy and maintain a battlecruiser, they have made enough to either safely retire wealthy and/or promote themselves out of the line of fire into a rear echelon type. In either case, they have no interest in shelling out big money for a battlecruiser that they're not going to use themselves and someone else is going to use and possibly loose.
In addition, generally hostile third parties with battlecruisers (or heavy cruisers, really) are priority targets for anyone and everyone interested in maintaining general peace and security.


Most pirates are only loosely organized.


If you're financing pirates and their support network for profit as the primary goal, and have X amount of resources, where are you going to spend most of your money? Where it will make you the most money - and that, for piracy, is on many more smaller, faster ships, than on one battlecruiser. Each small ship only needs to take one prize and its paid for, and every one after that is making you a profit, and you can afford to replace small ships and their crews much more readily than a battlecruiser. In addition, small ships are a lot easier to acquire without drawing attention, and small ships being pirates draw a lot less attention than a battlecruiser.
For that matter, you'll make more money faster with a bunch of small ships than you will with one big one, because even if there's a 50% miss rate on small ship interceptions, the collective group of small ships will be making many more interceptions than the one big ship.

I understand all of that. You all have made me see the light. Except that I don't want to get too cocky and dismissive. In other words, amongst all of us here in the forum, if we all end up in the Honorverse at some bar and we heard of that type of legendary score, I'll be the only one not surprised?

cthia wrote:"In 3 months gentlemen, a shipment consisting of a single freighter is scheduled to travel along this route. She will be making port here, here and... ... ... here! Where she'll be the most loaded and vulnerable - like pushing baby chicks to a hungry crocodile.

I think that case would attract a one-time coalition of six to ten frigate or destroyer sized Pirate companies than it would make a BC attractive on economic grounds.

Given the typical "discount" offered by a fence,
That kind of hit would be needed at least every other year.

(I think you're discounting the "boom and bust" lifestyle of typical pirates -- or almost any criminal looking for "that one big strike.")

Ok, so you are targeting someone who has such leaky security that every pirate in the universe knows about their secret transport plan. Where are you going to get, on short notice, a modern BC with a trained crew? Who is going to cough up the billion or two, in cash, needed to buy it? I can think of better things to do with a billion in cash that has a much better payoff. Like running with the money and sending an anonymous tip to Manticore, Haven, the Andies or Beowulf about this pirate cabal and where they are. Or getting formal clemency for your cooperation and keeping a big chunk of the money.

Or each of these 10 pirate captains takes their 100-200 million in cash and retires.

cthia wrote:

Kytheros wrote:A huge score like you postulate is the kind of thing that is (a) already under escort, (b) extremely difficult to discretely convert to liquid funds quickly, (c) distributed and concealed in smaller shipments, and/or (d) is a hired hit*.
*A hired hit might have ships provided that you can keep afterwards, depending on the deal. Of course, said provided ship or ships might also include remote detonated nukes to disappear the evidence. Plus, with a hired hit, you're not getting anywhere near the full value of the target, at best you're getting a small fixed percentage and a set fee.


Most of the profit from any given pirate hit isn't actually ending up in the hands of the people that get executed for piracy (ie, are out in ships taking other ships). They're getting a tiny percentage. Nobody further up the chain really cares enough to subsidize anything more than a light cruiser as a regular raider if their incentive is making money.


By the time pirates who are in it for the money can afford to both buy and maintain a battlecruiser, they have made enough to either safely retire wealthy and/or promote themselves out of the line of fire into a rear echelon type. In either case, they have no interest in shelling out big money for a battlecruiser that they're not going to use themselves and someone else is going to use and possibly loose.
In addition, generally hostile third parties with battlecruisers (or heavy cruisers, really) are priority targets for anyone and everyone interested in maintaining general peace and security.


Most pirates are only loosely organized.


If you're financing pirates and their support network for profit as the primary goal, and have X amount of resources, where are you going to spend most of your money? Where it will make you the most money - and that, for piracy, is on many more smaller, faster ships, than on one battlecruiser. Each small ship only needs to take one prize and its paid for, and every one after that is making you a profit, and you can afford to replace small ships and their crews much more readily than a battlecruiser. In addition, small ships are a lot easier to acquire without drawing attention, and small ships being pirates draw a lot less attention than a battlecruiser.
For that matter, you'll make more money faster with a bunch of small ships than you will with one big one, because even if there's a 50% miss rate on small ship interceptions, the collective group of small ships will be making many more interceptions than the one big ship.

I understand all of that. You all have made me see the light. Except that I don't want to get too cocky and dismissive. In other words, amongst all of us here in the forum, if we all end up in the Honorverse at some bar and we heard of that type of legendary score, I'll be the only one not surprised?

"That Legendary Score" is most likely a paid hit with inside information and/or is an act of corporate espionage.

Also, in the Honorverse, I think the Golden Age of Piracy is over.


If you're in it for the money, you want to get a small fast ship, and grab say a few dozen smaller transports, smaller scores. Sure, each one isn't going to be "that legendary score" ... but you don't need a legendary score to be able to make enough to retire if you're smart about your money. And frankly, making a "legendary score" will put a target on your back even if you do seek to retire.



Plus, it's worth noting that historically speaking, pirates that got rich and successfully retired were extremely rare.
Who're the big names in historical piracy? Basically all of them were killed before they could retire.

cthia wrote:You're still thinking rather small Sigs. A BC is for a score that's so large that it will have formidable escort, but also too large to pass up. Let's say this certain info comes to you, and you have access to a BC...

"In 3 months gentlemen, a shipment consisting of a single freighter is scheduled to travel along this route. She will be making port here, here and... ... ... here! Where she'll be the most loaded and vulnerable - like pushing baby chicks to a hungry crocodile. She'll be escorted with only two DDs, (possibly only one for at least three of the legs) and she's burning the marquee up with an astronomical price tag; 100 Trillion dollars people. With at most a pair of DDs. Or a singleton."

What say ye, we toast... mate?

I also imagine some of the wealthier and successful pirates were able to get out fast, as ye all say, because they were smart enough or lucky enuff, to get that one astronomical score. I'm looking at BCs as disposable items. And what about the almost priceless shipments and those carrying secrets? Not just military secrets, but trade secrets. And isn't there Honorverse armored vehicles? How armored are they?

Oh no. I've become a power monger. Power is intoxicating!!!

The most hilarious damn thought just "popped" in my head. Wouldn't it be funny if one of Honor's offspring became the most legendary and successful pirate in history? She's captaining a BC, and she's every bit the mettle of her mother. Her BC is named Freighter's Bane.

Yet this litle lad, steals from the rich and gives to the poor yet, deserving planets. Like whatshisface's gf's, that we all wish would just kiss already. You know, the redhead. Can't think of her name but can't forget that hair either, and that story about her poor little planet.

Anyways, a clone of Honor pirating a BC. Now tell her again why it isn't a good idea.

What I am getting from this is that a Pirate would have a BC just in case a once in a lifetime opportunity pops up or they keep a BC in storage until they need it.


For the first part it seems like a waste to keep a BC as your pirate vessel if you are waiting for a potential once in a lifetime opportunity. If it doesn't come you would be limiting yourself to only a fraction of the potential prizes while keeping expenses high and your crew less than pleased.

On the other hand, keeping a BC in reserve means you either have to have the crew on hand or be able to get a reasonably competent crew assembled quickly which seems unlikely and worst of all is that even if you assembled it in time they would not be well oiled machine like a real warships crew would be so even if they face one or two tin cans the pirates still run the risk of serious damage if not outright destruction even by a couple of ships they out mass by quite a bit. The regular navy will likely have several generations better equipped weapons, sensors and EW which means even if the escorts are outgunned they can still prevent the pirates from capturing the cargo in question.


As for secrets? You have to know which ship is carrying secrets and what's more you need to be able to access those secrets once you have physical control of the ship. If it is information it would be on a warship if important enough or on a courier where the crew cannot open it even if they wanted to.

cthia wrote:

Duckk wrote:That scenario is completely, utterly implausible. That much monetary value is the equivalent of a Core system's yearly gross domestic product. It would never be defended by anything like a pair of tin cans - it would be defended by an entire freaking navy. The shipper would recognize the value of the cargo just as much as the pirates, and would damn well make sure that the cargo is protected.

Shit happens, sir! Especially during a state of war, a visit by Murphy and an idiot as lackadaisical as Santino or Young ordered to escort it and Young buggered out to save his own ass. Think Young'll die for a freighter of some other system's booty, even at infinite times the value?

Besides, I haven't seen implausible as a limit in the Honorverse.

The problem is that you would be depending on the incompetence of the escort commander but just because he might be incompetent and a coward doesn't means that the rest of the escort will abandon the merchantman.

It is unlikely that you would get the information early enough to be able to acquire the BC and get the crew together. So it would mean you would have to have the BC as a just in case ship but that still leaves you with the problem of getting together a crew of over 2,000 in a short time. Even if you managed that what are the chances you would have time to work them into a team that allows you to rival the regular navies of the region?


Even a couple of DDs can do enough damage and cause enough distraction to prevent the freighters capture and if they die in the process and damage your BC you are SOL, a damaged ship, a once in a lifetime opportunity missed and most likely will go to the nearest naval base and wait for a heavier escort, heavy enough that if you should try it would destroy you and your BC.

cthia wrote:"In 3 months gentlemen, a shipment consisting of a single freighter is scheduled to travel along this route. She will be making port here, here and... ... ... here! Where she'll be the most loaded and vulnerable - like pushing baby chicks to a hungry crocodile. She'll be escorted with only two DDs, (possibly only one for at least three of the legs) and she's burning the marquee up with an astronomical price tag; 100 Trillion dollars people. With at most a pair of DDs. Or a singleton."

I suspect more than a few pirates would smell something fishy...namely a certain Mon Calamari admiral uttering his iconic line in their heads.

cthia wrote:Shit happens, sir! Especially during a state of war, a visit by Murphy and an idiot as lackadaisical as Santino or Young ordered to escort it and Young buggered out to save his own ass. Think Young'll die for a freighter of some other system's booty, even at infinite times the value?

Besides, I haven't seen implausible as a limit in the Honorverse.

Your scenario is that someone is so terminally stupid not to recognize the value of said cargo that they don't even take quarter-assed measures to protect their cargo commensurate to the value of that cargo. It's so faultily constructed, so fundamentally idiotic that you might as well have said that everyone forgot to breathe one day and left the door unlocked for anyone to grab the ship. It's not. Going. To. Happen.