Scenario of War with the League

So many things.

The SL has the SLN, primarily Battle Fleet to keep the lid on any of the League Members who might want to go adventuring and taking over other systems within the League. It's not quite so clean cut but essentially BF exists to keep ANY system in the League from not playing by the rules and starting intersystem wars.
Frontier Fleet is the people working the edge and keeping the peace outside of the League Proper. They are also operating as the muscle for Office of Frontier Security to both acquire "protectorates" (which can then be milked by OFS of their transtellar partners) and has essentilay the same plus being hired thugs for the rulers of systems who are not under the thumb of OFS etc but are typicaly totaliran dictatorships (in everything by actual name) with the screws well down on their own populations. Monica rented out it's ships and troops as mercenaries, Frontier Fleet and OFS Intervention Battalions have leagal cover as the Boarder Security and protectors of everything outside the actual League that has not yet been absorbed into the League. They reach outward as systems become worthy of notice (profitable enough to make it somebody's worth while to take them over to bleed them).

Lacoon I pulled almost all of the Manticore Merchant shipping out of the League and essentially anything controlled by OFS. That crippled the SL and out to the Verge (under OFS control or connected to their areas) trade and interstellar economies. Big strike one against the League.

Lacoon II was RMN Task Forces running down chains and bridges of wormhole connections leading back to Manticore. Note: Idaho is NOT part of the the Manticore junction but the Idaho - Zunker wormhole bridges a LOT of distance from one edge of SL/OFS controlled or at least intersted area (Manticore pointedly "negotiated" for Zunker and while OFS has a small office there they can't drag Zunker in as a "protectorate" to "help" them while grabbing off the wormhole fees. That means that that to get at Manticore from the relative direction of where you would leave other systems for Zunker, you now have a LONG way in hyperspace that doesn't stop at either Zunker or Idaho (they are very out-of-the-way if you can't use the wormhole.
The other Lacoon II situation shown is a LONG chain of wormholes and then hyperspace that leads into an area which is actuall "SL" space. Again, Manticore has put blockning forces at both end of each wormhole set and the League (BF & FF) really are in for a problem in having to take away EACH end of EACH wormhole to cut the hyperspace time in transit to something truly usable in tactical and strategic situation.
The Mandarins are screaming about Beowulf and the Sigma Draconic Terminus as an "arrow at the heart of the League" and an invasion pathway. Manticore isn't posting propaganda pieces, it has gone out and SECURED the wormhole routes that would offer the SLN any kind of "short" approch to Manticorian Space. Mr. Webber has remained silent on the whole Joshua- Erwhon-Tere Haut-Hennessy path but if Manticore thought this was going to be a problem, they would have at least beefed up Hennesy's terminus and POSSIBLY come to an arrangement with Tere Haut.

IF- and neither Manticore nor Haven had actually attacked the SLN in SL space though Lacoon II sets that stage for SLN to attempt to attack them - IF the GA does actally raid a SLN yard or base, don't you suppose that at least 50% of the League Members are going to scream for actual SLN forces in their systems to protect them. Same with the OFS and their buddies controling systems in the Verge and beyond. Even if the GA does NOT launch anything, systems are going to want to start building their own SDF protection. Even if it isn't going to be anywhere near good enough most systems are going to have to prove to their own populations that they are DOING SOMETHING to protect them while they are being shamefully and cowardly being ignored by the League and SLN. See the problem of not being able to be defended by SLN but having to keep paying? At what point does the Great and Powerful Solarian League become a burden? An actual Liability? And if you build your little navy (or build up your navy) perhaps you should use it to "resolve" some long standing issues with some neighbor. That is part of what is going to do the League in.

Look at the mapping. The SL almost has to send any strikes against Manticore (at/through Beowulf, through Talbott Quadrant through Lynx and way out and around to Basilisk. The alternative is what Filearta did trying to drive that truly long way to get at Manticore through hyperspace.
So just exactly how are you thinking the SLN is going to attack Haven without 1st comming through or around Manticoreian space? Sure, there was really backdoor trade and tech exchange between sellers in the SL and Haven but it was not fast. We don't have a route but you might want to put it in the similar idea of having to go around South America and then trans-Pacific to get to Saudi Arabia rather than leave Norway and go by either the Med and use the Suez Canal OR you sail down and around Africa. Sure, you can do it but will it accomplish what you need. Ship "modern" SL tech to the PRH in violation of SL rules and get paid vs sending a several hundred ship fleet or two with logistics train (you have NO friendly places along the way even if there might be inhabited planets scattered about ) and then start attacking Haven systems and attempt to stay at least one system ahead of the retribution that WILL be coming? No, cutting through the non-Manticorian part of the Talbott Quadrant isn't going to cut it, you "could" do it but you would need to not be noticed by anybody or word could be passed and you might find a welcome committee waiting for you somewhere out "beyond" Manticore in the direction of Haven.

munroburton wrote:The SLN isn't responsible for the security of all of the SL's systems on a day to day basis. That job is handled by the SDFs; each system decides how much defense it needs. There are of course exceptions such as the Sol system and wherever the major SLN bases are.

But many systems, believing the SLN will be around to provide a counter-strike force, may decide to focus their SDFs on units that can't leave their system: LACs or forts. Anything else risks being commandeered in the event of a Gbaba or Bug attack.

Relax's point about forts being more firepower for X amount of currency is, pardon the pun, on the money. They can be twice the mass of SDs, minus hyper generator and interstellar bunkerage, with the same crew. And in peacetime, personnel costs are the highest demand upon a navy/SDF's budget.

A SDF which has built 24 Manticoran-style forts has the firepower of over 50 SDs and doesn't register on the list of top 25 or even 50 navies. Yet only the top five or ten stand any hopes of defeating it.

Even only one such fort is sufficent to assure your home system's security should an unreliable neighbour acquire one of those white elephant wallers. Does it less threatingly than acquiring one or two elephants of your own too.

1)The SLN is in fact responsible for the defence of all League systems, should a war breakout the central government could take over the SDF and intergrade them into the SLN sort of like the US government can mobilize the National Guard as a federal asset.

2)How many systems do you think would build and man even one fort when they have spend the last 300-400 years thinking the League is the strongest and most advanced nation in existence and no one can even come close to actually threaten them because they have 2,300 SD's in regular commission and 8,000 in reserve.


3)Gbaba or bug attack? Wrong series. And not building ships because you are worried about them being commandeered is probably one of the dumbest reasons not to build ships.

4)Relax's point would be valid if we were discussing a rational government with a military that can actually fight a war. What we have in the series is an arrogant nation with a military that is so bloated rank wise and so confident of its capabilities that it KNOWS, not thinks but knows that no one can ever threaten in any series manner. Therefore I doubt that forts exist in such great numbers as to give the GA any problems. If a system has them and the GA would risk serious losses then they would bypass them until such a time as they can afford the risk.

5)What suggest that more than a dozen or even two dozen SDF have any true combat capabilities? Why would so many core worlds worry about a fleet if they know the SLN is going to defend them? How can they convince their citizens that they need multiple heavily armed forts and the logistical infrastructure to go with them if the SLN is protecting them? And even if and that is a big if they, have them would they keep them up to date? The equation would change if the core systems all had SDF's and they had SD's, DN's and forts, if that was the case and they could double the SLN's order of battle that would change the equation but as far as the evidence we have suggest few of them have any defence of their own at all.

munroburton wrote:

Fox2! wrote:
Unfortunately, you would eventually learn that all of your infil team leads were Mesan Alphas, and most of their members were Alphas and Betas, with perhaps a few Gammas thrown in to do the grunt work.

Any "Normals" would be kept out of the loop and sent after distractions. Any who managed to find something useful would be "discovered" by local Counter-Intelligence.

Shiny!

ONI has treecats available. Wholesale counter-penetration on that scale that isn't going to happen!

Manticoran ONI had treecats, yes. SLN, not so much. Which ONI are you speaking of?

Sigs wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:It doesn't really matter who or what is defending Earth, going directly to an opponent's Capitol isn't Manticoran or Havenite policy "pre-Buttercup" and therefore not likely to be the policy of the GA.

I'm sorry. I didn't really think about that. I know that both Manticore and Haven are utterly incapable of as nations to think outside the box. I mean it would NEVER in a million years occur to them to go after the League's capital even though they are much closer to the League's Capital than the League is to their Capitals.

Sarcasm ill becomes you.

How long before either got around to abandoning a "frontier" war? Manticore only adopted a deep raiding strategy because they didn't have enough capability after Thuderbolt.

Haven adopted Beatrice out of desperation because Apollo would be as effective as Buttercup was if allowed to go into general deployment.

What exactly is different about the Solarian League that would entice the GA to gamble on a single deep-penetration attack when they don't have the tech advantage of Buttercup or Apollo?

Weird Harold wrote:

Sigs wrote:

I'm sorry. I didn't really think about that. I know that both Manticore and Haven are utterly incapable of as nations to think outside the box. I mean it would NEVER in a million years occur to them to go after the League's capital even though they are much closer to the League's Capital than the League is to their Capitals.

Sarcasm ill becomes you.

How long before either got around to abandoning a "frontier" war? Manticore only adopted a deep raiding strategy because they didn't have enough capability after Thuderbolt.

Haven adopted Beatrice out of desperation because Apollo would be as effective as Buttercup was if allowed to go into general deployment.

What exactly is different about the Solarian League that would entice the GA to gamble on a single deep-penetration attack when they don't have the tech advantage of Buttercup or Apollo?

1) If the Core worlds are defenceless it simplifies the problem. If the SLN sends a large portion of its wall to attack either Manticore or Haven that would open Earth and the other core systems to the GA.

2)It does not really count as a "deep penetration attack" if they are right next door. Attacking the stars around Trevor's Star is not really a deep penetration attack because you have a base right in the middle of the enemies territory.

3) As I said, 2,300 SD's wont go far if you have to keep 500 or 600 as a Home Fleet around Earth because the other 1,400-1,500 will not be that overwhelming because by the time the SLN consolidates their forces, organizes them into one fleet and gets into a position to attack they would be facing upwards to 2,000 SD's in the GA wall, all of them much newer backed up by pods and forts in each and every important system. If they lose most or all of the say 1,500 SD's in their attack on the GA home systems, even if the GA loses half of their fleet, they would be able to replace is quicker. Within another year, the League or what is left of it might have new yards converted to build warships but in the same year the GA will likely have another few hundred SD's.


4)If the core worlds expect the League to protect them and the League abandons them, they will make peace with the GA build a fleet of their own and become an independent state. Those core systems will likely not be interested in rejoining the League once they have sufficient firepower to protect themselves from extrernal threats.


So basically, (a)the SLN will have to send most of it's SD's to attack the GA without much in the way of consolidation or organization in order to save time or (b)they will have to defend the core with their fleet and buy time to build up their forces or(c) a combination of the two and keep a large portion of their Fleet to defend Earth and the core while sending a portion of their fleet to Attack the GA.

Option (a): means opening the core and the Capital to GA attacks and being met in Haven/Manticore with the SLN CNO and the SL government and Mandirins to inform you that the war is over the League has surrendered.

Option (b): They will defend the League Core and shell with their SD's while trying to build up their shipyards and mobilize their reserve. This means they surrender the initiative and in 4 years the GA might have 4,000 or 5,000 modern SD's while they would still have the 2,300 SD's plus whatever they could mobilize from the Reserve and whatever they build from their few yards. This has some chance of success if the GA let's them have a breather but I highly doubt they would do anything of the sort.

Option (c): Buys you the worst of both worlds, the attack fleet is not overwhelming in strength and if it attacks Manticore it would go up against pods, fortresses and mobile fleets of several Hundred SD's. If it attacks Haven it will face the same problems. And if it decide to attack the less heavily defended systems of either Manticore or Haven their fleet train might not allow them to remain in the fight for long. But this also means that while they are traveling to their destination the GA has a free hand wherever they want in the core and they can hit the core systems and defeat their pickets in detail.



As for what is different? If Haven has uncovered their capital or important systems do you think that Manticore would have hesitated for a second? Knowing you can punch out the enemy Capital with little effort and be back at home to defend your territory before they got there?

Sigs wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:Sarcasm ill becomes you.

How long before either got around to abandoning a "frontier" war? Manticore only adopted a deep raiding strategy because they didn't have enough capability after Thuderbolt.

Haven adopted Beatrice out of desperation because Apollo would be as effective as Buttercup was if allowed to go into general deployment.

What exactly is different about the Solarian League that would entice the GA to gamble on a single deep-penetration attack when they don't have the tech advantage of Buttercup or Apollo?

1) If the Core worlds are defenceless it simplifies the problem. If the SLN sends a large portion of its wall to attack either Manticore or Haven that would open Earth and the other core systems to the GA.

2)It does not really count as a "deep penetration attack" if they are right next door. Attacking the stars around Trevor's Star is not really a deep penetration attack because you have a base right in the middle of the enemies territory.

3) As I said, 2,300 SD's wont go far if you have to keep 500 or 600 as a Home Fleet around Earth because the other 1,400-1,500 will not be that overwhelming because by the time the SLN consolidates their forces, organizes them into one fleet and gets into a position to attack they would be facing upwards to 2,000 SD's in the GA wall, all of them much newer backed up by pods and forts in each and every important system. If they lose most or all of the say 1,500 SD's in their attack on the GA home systems, even if the GA loses half of their fleet, they would be able to replace is quicker. Within another year, the League or what is left of it might have new yards converted to build warships but in the same year the GA will likely have another few hundred SD's.

4)If the core worlds expect the League to protect them and the League abandons them, they will make peace with the GA build a fleet of their own and become an independent state. Those core systems will likely not be interested in rejoining the League once they have sufficient firepower to protect themselves from extrernal threats.

So basically, (a)the SLN will have to send most of it's SD's to attack the GA without much in the way of consolidation or organization in order to save time or (b)they will have to defend the core with their fleet and buy time to build up their forces or(c) a combination of the two and keep a large portion of their Fleet to defend Earth and the core while sending a portion of their fleet to Attack the GA.

Option (a): means opening the core and the Capital to GA attacks and being met in Haven/Manticore with the SLN CNO and the SL government and Mandirins to inform you that the war is over the League has surrendered.

Option (b): They will defend the League Core and shell with their SD's while trying to build up their shipyards and mobilize their reserve. This means they surrender the initiative and in 4 years the GA might have 4,000 or 5,000 modern SD's while they would still have the 2,300 SD's plus whatever they could mobilize from the Reserve and whatever they build from their few yards. This has some chance of success if the GA let's them have a breather but I highly doubt they would do anything of the sort.

Option (c): Buys you the worst of both worlds, the attack fleet is not overwhelming in strength and if it attacks Manticore it would go up against pods, fortresses and mobile fleets of several Hundred SD's. If it attacks Haven it will face the same problems. And if it decide to attack the less heavily defended systems of either Manticore or Haven their fleet train might not allow them to remain in the fight for long. But this also means that while they are traveling to their destination the GA has a free hand wherever they want in the core and they can hit the core systems and defeat their pickets in detail.

As for what is different? If Haven has uncovered their capital or important systems do you think that Manticore would have hesitated for a second? Knowing you can punch out the enemy Capital with little effort and be back at home to defend your territory before they got there?

One thing that you are forgetting, in a 1910 PD world, the GA dosen't have as big a missile advantage as it does in 1922. Therefore all the objections about the SL replacing SD's has a fatal flaw, the reserve.

The SL looses half it's active SD's? it should be able to activate each reserve SD in a matter of weeks instead of the years that building a new SD would take.

Therefore, in a 1910 SL war, the GA has to do deep penetration raids to destroy the reserve ships.

What exactly is different about the Solarian League that would entice the GA to gamble on a single deep-penetration attack when they don't have the tech advantage of Buttercup or Apollo?

From an in universe perspective: Large though it may be, the Grand Alliance's War with the League is still a David vs Goliath affair. David only won that confrontation because he was quick and he hit Goliath in just the right spot.

It isn't a gamble to strike, it is a gamble to wait. The GA has better ship, doctrine, and crew. If they deploy simultaneous strikes against Earth, Mesa, and other highly strategic targets, this war will be over. On the other hand, the longer the GA wait the more likely the more likely the Sollies are to catch up and the more likely the Alignment is to out-manuever them.

From an out-universe perspective: David Weber isn't going to spend another ten years working on this series. I believe I saw another thread on this forum where someone said he was going to wrap up this series in another two or three books.

You all talking about the Solarian League Navy to defend the core worlds but you forget, that some of the core Systems have their own fleets, not so big as the League Navy but at the other side, if I remember correct, they send observers to the Manticore/Haven war and learn about it so they could be a Little bit better than the League Navy.

At the other Hand, what can the League do if the Alliance attack an important League System? Every Core world will call for League Ships and if the League don´t send them they can make a lot of pressure to the goverment. Maybe the attack of Meyers from Michelle Henke is enough to Paralyse the League Navy for some time.

Maldorian wrote:You all talking about the Solarian League Navy to defend the core worlds but you forget, that some of the core Systems have their own fleets, not so big as the League Navy but at the other side, if I remember correct, they send observers to the Manticore/Haven war and learn about it so they could be a Little bit better than the League Navy.

At the other Hand, what can the League do if the Alliance attack an important League System? Every Core world will call for League Ships and if the League don´t send them they can make a lot of pressure to the goverment. Maybe the attack of Meyers from Michelle Henke is enough to Paralyse the League Navy for some time.

We know fewer than 20 SDFs (probably 12-15) have a squadron or more of wallers, and probably a similar # have 3-7 wallers, and of those 20 with a squadron, we know of 2 (Beowulf and Mannerheim) and can guess at 1 or 2 more (Visigoth). Out of 1800 member worlds, fewer than 40 have any significant waller strength, and none is as large as the IAN or GSN, let alone the RMN or RHN. At best, all the SDFs may be able to add >800 wallers (BBs-SDs) to the SLN's total - If the SLN can entice them to give them up.

lot been said since i was last on.

there were mentions of 3 "inasion" corridors the SL could use to try and hit the GA.

Beowulf, lynx and bassilisk.

there is also the option of using erewhon.

of course that would be almost as stupid as trying to hit any of the Manticore junction's termini.

even the "primitive" MDMs that Rozark had at Torch (which were old to him by erewhon) would be enough to slaughter any solly fleet that tried to use erewhon's junction