I wanted a more systematic description of the situation at the front at the end of the book so I decided to write one. Once I had that detailed speculation came naturally. This post starts by laying out what I understand the situation to be as of April 15th, the day when Harshu met with his commanders at the end of RTH. The last scene in the book set at the front. I will give Sharonan forces, then Arcanan forces and then I will speculate. Yes, it is a very long post but I couldn’t say everything I wanted to in a shorter post.
Sharonan Forces
Karys/Traisum Portal – This portal is contested, Sharonan forces are on the Traisum side. Harshu believes them to be substantial but we have no information regarding who is actually here. At various times much of the 3rd Corps has been here but they are now all elsewhere. I guess that there is something between a division and a corps here but we have no idea who or how many.
Failcham/Karys Portal – This portal is held by Sharona. It is guarded by 3 regiments from the 3rd Dragons (all of 1st Brigade and the 23rd regiment from 2nd Brigade) under Chan Geraith’s personal command. Having just made the run through Failcham they are probably out of fuel.
Failcham/Therym Portal – This portal is held by Sharona. The other regiment of the 3rd Dragoons 2nd Brigade (9th regiment) was assigned to guard it until they could be relieved at which point they were to proceed to the Failcham/Karys Portal. They have not been relieved yet so they are still guarding the portal.
Therym and Nairsom – Sharona has extensive forces in these two universes although there exact location is unknown. On April 6th, Chan Geraith briefed his officers and provided expected arrival times of additional forces. He said chan Bykahlar’s infantry brigade would arrive in Therym in a week and a half. So they should be arriving today (April 15th) or tomorrow at the Nairsom/Therym portal. The second brigade of that infantry division is five days behind them. I assume the last division of the Fifth Corps (the 9th Infantry Division) is following behind but am not aware of an ETA for them. Sharona also has a very large number (I estimate ten to twenty thousand total) of construction workers in Therym and Nairsom. They are working on the railroad.
The last hard position we have for the railhead is on February 15th when chan Geraith is standing at it and thinks it is 2000 miles from the Lashai/Resym portal and 700 miles from the Nairsom/Resym portal. There is obviously some rounding going on there (and there must be since I believe the railhead to be a two to four hundred mile long construction zone) but taking the 2000 miles as the solid number and assuming they are laying track at the 25 miles a day predicted in Chapter two that means it should reach the Nairsom/Resym portal in 30 days (or March 17th). It is only 590 miles across Nairsom but building track across Alaska in March/April may slow them down some I will assume that takes them another month. This means that the railhead arrives in Thermyn in mid April (so about now). There is one text that could be understood to contradict this, chan Bykahlar is shown leaving his train, presumably at the railhead, in Resym on March 26th. I choose to believe that his brigade is unloading over a fairly extended area and that he is close to the Resym/Nairsom portal and so this doesn’t contradict the above.
Regardless of precise position the railroad construction crews are doubtless into Therym and while they probably aren’t any good for, and can’t be spared from construction work for, offensive action. I expect they have been armed like light infantry and taught how to use the weapons to defend themselves. Since the wilderness gives them nowhere to run and they have doubtless heard rumors even worse than reality about how the Arcanans treat prisoners and they have a score to settle with Arcana, like all Sharonans, I expect them to fight like trapped rats, neither giving nor accepting quarter if attacked. That makes them militarily relevant.
Thermyn/New Uromath Portal – This portal is held by Sharona but there are no known Sharonan forces there. There is certainly a voice relay point and a picket to guard it but I don’t know of any significant force that could be here.
New Uromath/Hell’s Gate Portal – This portal is held by Sharona but we have no evidence of significant forces here and given its size and proximity to the Hell’s Gate/Mahritha Portal stationing significant forces here makes not sense.
Hell’s Gate/Mahritha Portal – This portal is held by Sharona and guarded by the 3rd Brigade of the 3rd Dragoons.
Arcanan Forces
Karys/Traisum Portal – This portal is contested. The Arcanan forces are on the Karys side of the portal. The main body of the AEF is here with 2000 Harshu in command. Its precise strength is unknown but given the starting numbers we received in Hell’s Gate (more then 14,000) and the losses and diversions we saw I would guess he has seven or eight thousand here, mostly infantry, but that is a guess.
Thermyn – Harshu stationed a quarter of his dragons (at a time), all his surviving heavy horse and most of his light cavalry here so they could feed themselves by hunting and grazing. I would guess that this will amount to almost 2000 men and a large portion of the AEF’s firepower. It needs to be noted here that whoever it was on Harshu’s staff responsible for setting up backup Hummer relays, outside of the forts, actually did his job (unlike most Arcanans so he should probably get a medal for it) as a result Arcanan communications have not been cut and Harshu will be able to coordinate his forces.
Mahritha – There was apparently a significant force guarding the Hell’s Gate/Mahritha portal, possibly two thousand men since they say it was outnumbered three to one and are estimated the force that attacked it is as large or larger as chan Geraith’s force which they estimate at 5000. We don’t know how many managed to escape when they lost the portal but they have presumably gathered at Fort Rycharn.
Erthos – Mul Gurthik is here and may have other forces available to him, we really have no idea what he has or what he might make of the new situation.
Speculation about Sharonan actions
Sharona would appear to me to have three goals at this point with a clear order of priority. Most important is holding on to the Hell’s Gate/Mahritha portal. If they can keep that closed all Arcanan units on their side of it will eventually be forced to surrender by lack of supplies. Second is keeping Harshu out of Thermyn. He may have to surrender eventually but if he gets into Thermyn he will be a major threat to their supply lines until he does. Last, begin scouting Mahritha and advance into it if possible.
To achieve these goals I expect they will send the first infantry brigade into Thermyn to the Thermyn/Failcham portal. It will be tight for it to beat Harshu there if he tries to make a run for it and can get past chan Geraith so it needs to move now. The second brigade will head for the Hell’s Gate/Mahritha portal to reinforce the 3rd Dragoons 3rd Brigade there. The railroad will head for the Hell’s Gate/Mahritha portal. We know from Chapter 41 that it is about 800 miles from Thermyn/Nairsom to the Thermyn/New Uromath portal and only another 280 to the Hell’s Gate/Mahritha portal from there, through relatively easy terrain. If nothing interferes the railhead should arrive at the Hell’s Gate/Mahritha portal by late May or early June.
We know Fort Rycharn is at the same location as Belem, Brazil. Which is on one of the mouths of the Amazon River. My interpretation of the account of the flight from the Hell’s Gate/Mahritha portal in HG, which appeared to show 700 miles of inland swamp, is that the portal is along the same river. If so men in canoes should have no trouble getting to the coast and locating Fort Rycharn. And shallow draft steamboats ought to be able to make the same trip. Which means Sharona will be able to attack Fort Rycharn in division strength by mid-summer. They will do so and work on putting in a port and making the river navigable for larger boats.
Speculation about Arcanan actions
Mul Gurthik is a mystery to me. I have little idea what his plans are and no idea how he will adapt is plans to respond to this situation. I also have no idea regarding what forces he has available. I do not think that the fact that he has not been forwarding reinforcements to Harshu proves that he does not have any forces available. We don’t know what he was saying to neighboring commanders, they may have loaned him forces. We also don’t know what the High Commandery has sent forward, it wasn’t relevant to the stories being told in RTH so we didn’t hear about it, this doesn’t mean significant forces weren’t sent forward.
Harshu needs to run, given he doesn’t know what Mul Gurthik has or will do either, he has little option but to try and get his men out by himself. I expect he will be able to get a large portion of his force past chan Geraith. The Karys/Failcham Portal is probably too high and too wide for chan Geraith’s force to achieve sufficient defensive depth to prevent Harshu from breaking through. Coordinating with the forces in Thermyn should let him break into Thermyn. I suspect, however, that he will not be able to beat the infantry brigade heading for the Hell’s Gate/Mahritha Portal to that portal. My estimate is it can be there in 10 days if it moves fast (20 miles an hour, 15 hours a day (we are near summer solstice so long day), gives 300 miles a day, five days to the Thermyn/Nairsom portal and five more to the Hell’s Gate/Mahritha portal). If Harshu doesn’t beat them to that portal he is going to be stuck, because that portal is too narrow for him to force against nearly 10,000 men. If Mul Gurthik doesn’t show up to rescue him I expect he will get squashed between the Sharonan forces on the portal and Sharonan forces coming up behind him.
This is my read of the data. Have I missed anything? These are my guesses for the future. We weren’t right last time and I doubt we will be right this time but what do you all think?
Nicholas
