Scenario of War with the League

I would like to present a scenario that is similar to what the series has but with some significant changes.


Here is the scenario:
The Grand Alliance has been formed, we are using the fleet strength of 1920 minus the Andermani Empire for the total fleet of the alliance. Bolthole exists with 1920 capabilities and pre Oyster Bay infrastructure for the SEM and Grayson.

The SLN has 2300 SD's in active service, 8,000 in reserve as well as say 15,000 lighter units (BC,CA,CL,DD).

The Mesan Alighnment is a non player for an unspecified reason... this means that they have gotten the Alliance to go to war with the League but due to change in circumstances they will lie low and will not interfere.


Alliance technology includes CLAC's with Ferret, Shrike and Katana's. And SD's will be limited to Pre Buttercup technology therefore no podnought and no multistage missiles so missile technology is at around 1910 level except for CLAC's and LAC's.

Allied fleet:
1,195 SD's(Combined DN,SD,SD(P)'s of Haven, Grayson and Manticore)
114 CLAC's(All with RMN Capabilities)
382 BC's
328 CA's
457 CL's
634 DD's


SLN Fleet:(Similar breakdown % of the Allied fleet below the wall)
~2,300 SD's
3,181 BC's
2,731 CA's
3,806 CL's
5,280 DD's


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Here is the question:

Technologically the SLN is a lot closer to the Allied fleet using the above restriction than it is in the series it is by no means equal, but it is closer.

The League has about 2,000 planets while the Alliance has somewhere in the neighbourhood of 100 systems.

The League outnumbers the Alliance population by a wide margin, their size is ~20 times greater than the Alliance but they have limited naval shipbuilding at the moment as well as a large portion of systems that would love nothing more than to get away from the league. Politically, economically, industry wise and militarily all else remains.

What are the chances of the League surviving the war in one piece or even as a nation at all?

There are significant number of SL affiliated planets that would like to leave. However they are essentially meaningless to the war making capability of the SL. Which is in the 500 or so core worlds, each of which has more industrial capability than the SEM.

Personally I don't think that there would be much of a change. The League is held together by force in many cases which means if the Mandarins want to keep the Protectorates and many of the shell systems they would need to resort to force which will divert great number of ships taking away from the main front while they are at technological disadvantage and led by less than brilliant officers.


The reserve even with the conditions I set out is nothing but floating targets and therefore will not be worth much while the active portion is within shouting distance of the Alliance fleet. This means that the Alliance might be able to beat off greater numbers of SLN ships but ultimately they will also suffer losses.


After Manticore withdraws its merchant marine from the League, the League would be forced to resort to build and crew merchant ships to take up the slack after Manticore withdraws while at the same time needing their limited ship building capacity and expertise to build a modern fleet that could face the alliance in something approaching even technological ground.



But worst of all from the League's perspective, if the Alliance captures most of their concentrated ship yards and destroys the infrastructure while capturing their manpower it would make their situation much more dire.

Here are the League's shortcomings from my perspective:
-Incompetent leaders(Military and civilian)
-Inexperienced personnel
-Technological inferiority
-A large chunk of their remaining income is less than willing "partner"
-Longer build times, in concentrated shipyards that are vulnerable to attack.


And these are only the once I have time for as there are many more but I need to go sleep.

kzt wrote:There are significant number of SL affiliated planets that would like to leave. However they are essentially meaningless to the war making capability of the SL. Which is in the 500 or so core worlds, each of which has more industrial capability than the SEM.

But how much of that industrial Capability can be turned into building warships within a few years?

And how much of the core of the SL is interconnected and requiring merchant ships to keep their economies going?
Cargo ships stop transporting cargo and a lot of that industrial capability will go to waste quickly. And another thing, how loyal is the Average Solarian to the League vs the Average Manticorean/Grason/Havenite to their respective nation/government?

I think the Grand Alliance still wins.

The Sollies don't have missile pods, for the most part their point defense stinks and they don't have any true admirals. (The Sollies haven't truly gone to war in ages. Frontier Fleet has engaged in skirmishes, not major fleet actions.)

Dispatch a few heavy raiding forces--major firepower and colliers to rearm them. Their target isn't the fleet but the shipyards and the reserve fleet. They smash any light forces they find but leave rather than face serious fleet action. With the yards destroyed the Sollies can't maintain their ships very well and their warfighting ability runs down.

There of course will be major actions at Manticore and Haven but in both cases they'll be running into pods galore.

There is, however, the problem that the Sollies are the enforcers of the Eridani Edict--they might choose to violate it.

Loren Pechtel wrote:I think the Grand Alliance still wins.

The Sollies don't have missile pods, for the most part their point defense stinks and they don't have any true admirals. (The Sollies haven't truly gone to war in ages. Frontier Fleet has engaged in skirmishes, not major fleet actions.)

Dispatch a few heavy raiding forces--major firepower and colliers to rearm them. Their target isn't the fleet but the shipyards and the reserve fleet. They smash any light forces they find but leave rather than face serious fleet action. With the yards destroyed the Sollies can't maintain their ships very well and their warfighting ability runs down.

There of course will be major actions at Manticore and Haven but in both cases they'll be running into pods galore.

There is, however, the problem that the Sollies are the enforcers of the Eridani Edict--they might choose to violate it.

I tend to agree because ship for ship the GA units are bigger and better designed for laser head missile combat; with come early modifications to further cope with early towed-pod combat. Plus the RMN units already have higher acceleration (though far short of what they have 'now').

And if we've got Shrikes (but not MDMs or podlayers) then presumably we do have bow walls and can refit heavier units with those.

So ton for ton they've probably got at least a 30% edge in combat power/survivability; plus they're bigger on a class by class basis.


The one exception to that is if the Solarian League managed to maintain operational security and could drop a Raging Justice level strike on Manticore or Haven without warning. That might give them a heavy enough numerical superiority (3 or 4 to 1) in that system to punch out the respective home fleet and take control of the system. That would certainly take Manticore out of the war, and probably could take Haven out - but if not they'd at least inflict disproportionate losses and trash major shipyards and industrial complexes. And we know that that kind of steamroll the home system attack is their normal strategic plan (which on the one hand means the GA should anticipate it even if they get no specific warnings; but on the other hand keeping sufficient forces home to repel a huge Battlefleet attack basically requires giving up strategic offensive beyond nuisance BC raids.

The one exception to that is if the Solarian League managed to maintain operational security and could drop a Raging Justice level strike on Manticore or Haven without warning. That might give them a heavy enough numerical superiority (3 or 4 to 1) in that system to punch out the respective home fleet and take control of the system. That would certainly take Manticore out of the war, and probably could take Haven out - but if not they'd at least inflict disproportionate losses and trash major shipyards and industrial complexes. And we know that that kind of steamroll the home system attack is their normal strategic plan (which on the one hand means the GA should anticipate it even if they get no specific warnings; but on the other hand keeping sufficient forces home to repel a huge Battlefleet attack basically requires giving up strategic offensive beyond nuisance BC raids.

You forget, that Manticore could do the same. What do you think, if an manticorian Fleet appears at Sol? They could bomb the Mandarines to ashes or if the Manties are more friendly arrest them with marines. What would happen to the League then? A fight for power in the Offices in the Departments! Like Honor said: "A giant with glass feet!"

I'm not kidding that there are hundreds of core worlds that have more industrial capability than the entire SEM, and most have 3-10 times the population of the entire Manticore home system.

So basically most any single core world is perfectly capable of fielding a force larger then the entire RMN if they are motivated to do so.

What are the odds that they can't fairly rapidly build 200 year old ship designs if they are motivated to do so?

kzt wrote:I'm not kidding that there are hundreds of core worlds that have more industrial capability than the entire SEM, and most have 3-10 times the population of the entire Manticore home system.

So basically most any single core world is perfectly capable of fielding a force larger then the entire RMN if they are motivated to do so.

What are the odds that they can't fairly rapidly build 200 year old ship designs if they are motivated to do so?

Even if they have the technology, they need to gear up for that specific construction, train their workers, then build the ships, which is going to take 6 years or so. And then, yes, Every major system can be a Manticore.

Even if you have a shipyard, you already have a pipeline of ships completing. Let's say there are 9 SDs in verious stages of work... great, you,ll get a new SD every 6 months for the next 5 or so years. You can hire more people and lay down more ships now...and you'll see a massive new fleet... in about 5 years....

Fortunately, the GA knows this, and isn't goig to play thelong game... because they will lose.

Theemile wrote:

kzt wrote:I'm not kidding that there are hundreds of core worlds that have more industrial capability than the entire SEM, and most have 3-10 times the population of the entire Manticore home system.

So basically most any single core world is perfectly capable of fielding a force larger then the entire RMN if they are motivated to do so.

What are the odds that they can't fairly rapidly build 200 year old ship designs if they are motivated to do so?

Even if they have the technology, they need to gear up for that specific construction, train their workers, then build the ships, which is going to take 6 years or so. And then, yes, Every major system can be a Manticore.

Even if you have a shipyard, you already have a pipeline of ships completing. Let's say there are 9 SDs in verious stages of work... great, you,ll get a new SD every 6 months for the next 5 or so years. You can hire more people and lay down more ships now...and you'll see a massive new fleet... in about 5 years....

Fortunately, the GA knows this, and isn't goig to play thelong game... because they will lose.

"Ask me for anything but time" (Napoleon I, if I remember correctly)

But ... The Solarian League is so damned big, you simply can't control even the Core-Worlds, much less the worlds in the shell (some of them are not to sneer at, too - technologically speaking - because it's at least my impression that most of the worlds currently (in the official Honorverse) in the Alignment are Shell-Worlds)

So, sooner or later, some Core- or Shell-Worlds have the time to build a modern navy ... and then the GA is doomed.
(at least, if a - the SL hangs together; b - the Verge remains calm and under solarian control; c - the shell remains calm and under solarian control)