Just to give an example of the difficulty. In addition to The E's post. A
simplistic picture and alternate explanations.
From
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=UNRATEThe following image is generated:
Well obviously because the Democrats gained control of Congress the employment rate sky rocketed until a new equilibrium was reached. Then the Republicans gained control of the House of Representatives in 2010 and unemployment started a downward trend. Because they were actually fighting all those battles for limiting the size and scope of the Federal Government.
Unless of course we go by presidents then inflection points change drastically. Then it was all President Bush's fault for the whole thing and it took a while to overcome inertia. Thus President Obama was a savior.
Both of which points are, interestingly enough, the same for the 1990's and President Bush I, President Clinton and The Congresses that they contended with.
Really wish it was as simple as "a" gets you "b".
Of course if you really want to have fun the Illegal immigration and its depressing effect on both the unemployment (also participation rates) and wages is worse. Compounded by the safety net making it so a person can sit at home do nothing and get paid for it. After all the great recession made it so more illegals left than got here so that is the reason that unemployment went down. Somebody had to do those jobs.
One of David Drake's quotes in an afterward really struck a nerve when I reread it recently. Paraphrased, "When someone tells me the cause of the Rome falling was ... I know he is an idiot. There was no one cause."
Have fun,
T2M