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US Presidential Candidates

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Re: US Presidential Candidates
Post by gcomeau   » Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:06 pm

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biochem wrote:It doesn't. It allows you to evaluate Trump on your own without someone else cherry picking the facts. You can read all the statements for yourself and then decide for yourself liar, liar pants on fire, mostly false, mostly true, true etc.


Fair enough, but having watched the guy and already performed that evaluation I'd place his tendency to lie compulsively and constantly (when he'not just jabbering incoherently) at "Baghdad Bob" levels.


Being the biggest liar by a mile in a field of politicians is quite the accomplishment.
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Re: US Presidential Candidates
Post by DDHvi   » Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:07 pm

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Let people who have treated the Constitution like toilet paper shriek bloody murder over a constitutional issue they’re getting completely wrong (there’s no constitutional requirement that the Senate send presidential nominees so much as a gift basket).


The purpose of a constitution is to provide a framework. The purpose of the USA constitution is to secure liberty to the people. Statists of any party don't like it and don't do it. So what else is new?

IIRC, historically, tyrants of one form or another have ruled, more often than people have had real liberty. Today, the fashion for tyrants is to proclaim they are a democracy.
:P
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Dumb mistakes are very irritating.
Smart mistakes go on forever
Unless you test your assumptions!
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Re: US Presidential Candidates
Post by biochem   » Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:23 pm

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Came across an interesting analysis of of Donald Trump's policy positions.

http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/03/19/bo ... -the-deal/

People ask him something like “How would you fix Medicare?”, and he gives some vapid answer like “There are tremendous problems with Medicare, but I’m going to hire the best people. I know all of the best doctors and health care executives, and we’re going to cut some amazing deals and have the best Medicare in the world.” And yeah, he did say in his business tips that you should change the frame to avoid being negative to reporters. But this isn’t a negative or a gotcha question. At some point you’d expect Trump to do his homework and get some kind of Medicare plan or other. Instead he just goes off on the same few tangents. This thing about hiring the best people, for example, seems almost like an obsession... But it works for him. When somebody sues him (which seems like an hourly occurrence in real estate development no matter how careful you are) his response is to find the best lawyer, hire them, and throw them at the problem. When he needs a hotel managed, he hires the best hotel managers and tells them to knock themselves out. Even his much-mocked tendency to talk about all the people he knows comes from this being a big part of his real estate strategy – one of the reasons he can outcompete other tycoons is because he knows people on the planning board, knows people in the banks, knows people in all the companies he works with. It’s a huge advantage for him.

These strategies have always worked for him before, and floating off into some intellectual ideal-system-design effort has never worked for him before. So when he says that he’s going to solve Medicare by hiring great managers and knowing all the right people, I don’t think this is some vapid way of avoiding the question. I think it’s the honest output of a mind that works very differently from mine.
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Re: US Presidential Candidates
Post by thinkstoomuch   » Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:30 pm

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biochem wrote:Came across an interesting analysis of of Donald Trump's policy positions.

...snip to save scrollwheels...


Probably accurate and my thoughts even prior to reading your post.

Part of the problem with that for past presidents has been, who the hired "experts" are.

Remember President Kennedy and the war he started. How it was going to be won. Or President Bush and his "expert" VP.

In the end if you are a real expert do you work for the government for a cut in pay or in the private sector? Which gets into that expert's motivations.

Have fun,
T2M
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A: “No. That’s just the price. ...
Christopher Anvil from Top Line in "War Games"
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Re: US Presidential Candidates
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:29 am

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Taking your point a might further, T2M. Is the ideology of the President a benefit or a hindrance to selecting those experts? I suspect that ideology might well inhibit the best results. After all an strict adherence to ideology is an imposition of an intellectual construct upon reality. Not just that but an imposition of that construct on other people when considering the policies generated from that ideology.

Would it not be better to have people who are subject matter experts strive to achieve goals defined not by ideology but real world bench marks?

thinkstoomuch wrote:
biochem wrote:Came across an interesting analysis of of Donald Trump's policy positions.

...snip to save scrollwheels...


Probably accurate and my thoughts even prior to reading your post.

Part of the problem with that for past presidents has been, who the hired "experts" are.

Remember President Kennedy and the war he started. How it was going to be won. Or President Bush and his "expert" VP.

In the end if you are a real expert do you work for the government for a cut in pay or in the private sector? Which gets into that expert's motivations.

Have fun,
T2M
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Re: US Presidential Candidates
Post by thinkstoomuch   » Thu Apr 14, 2016 11:30 am

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PeterZ wrote:Taking your point a might further, T2M. Is the ideology of the President a benefit or a hindrance to selecting those experts? I suspect that ideology might well inhibit the best results. After all an strict adherence to ideology is an imposition of an intellectual construct upon reality. Not just that but an imposition of that construct on other people when considering the policies generated from that ideology.

Would it not be better to have people who are subject matter experts strive to achieve goals defined not by ideology but real world bench marks?


Ah but there is the rub. As shown above in the fact proving charts above what is the real world?

PeterZ’s, Biochem, Daryl’s, mine, The E’s, spacekiwi. some of the other silent or occasional posters.
We all have our view on the real world and reality. Out 7+ billion on the planet there are probably 1 trillion real worlds.

If you trust others to interpet it for you they just bought your vote.

Trust wisely,
T2M

PS For the record I am fairly sure that PeterZ's "real world" matches mine much more closely than others. But then again he isn't cramming his view down my throat even when we disagree. Which is fairly often, interestingly enough.
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Q: “How can something be worth more than it costs? Isn’t everything ‘worth’ what it costs?”
A: “No. That’s just the price. ...
Christopher Anvil from Top Line in "War Games"
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Re: US Presidential Candidates
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Apr 14, 2016 12:03 pm

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Agreed. I would posit that some goals with real world, objective metrics may bridge such divides.

Improving unemployment is a good one. Create some measurable amount of net new jobs than existed at beginning of the term. Improving the median wage by some stated amount or percentage. Whatever policies that are consistent with those goals should be fine for most people. That is the sort of ideology free goals I am discussing. Like South Africa using their policy on private hunting preserves owning the elephants in their property to increase the elephant population, effective policies might by distasteful but they do work.

Holding one's ideologically sensitive nose in the presence of effective policy is a measure of adulthood.

thinkstoomuch wrote:
Ah but there is the rub. As shown above in the fact proving charts above what is the real world?

PeterZ’s, Biochem, Daryl’s, mine, The E’s, spacekiwi. some of the other silent or occasional posters.
We all have our view on the real world and reality. Out 7+ billion on the planet there are probably 1 trillion real worlds.

If you trust others to interpet it for you they just bought your vote.

Trust wisely,
T2M

PS For the record I am fairly sure that PeterZ's "real world" matches mine much more closely than others. But then again he isn't cramming his view down my throat even when we disagree. Which is fairly often, interestingly enough.
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Re: US Presidential Candidates
Post by gcomeau   » Thu Apr 14, 2016 1:19 pm

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thinkstoomuch wrote:Ah but there is the rub. As shown above in the fact proving charts above what is the real world?

PeterZ’s, Biochem, Daryl’s, mine, The E’s, spacekiwi. some of the other silent or occasional posters.
We all have our view on the real world and reality. Out 7+ billion on the planet there are probably 1 trillion real worlds.


Which is the entire reason the scientific method exists. Subjective viewpoints and interpretations of data are incredibly unreliable, so the method requires objective verification and critical examination of all data from multiple sources and constant and unending re-examination of that data to continue to verify its validity.


There is a reason science works. Simply dismissing the results it produces when they conflict with your worldview by invoking "well, everyone sees things differently" is nothing but willful ignorance. There is a vast difference between allowing for the possibility the scientific data is wrong (something the scientific method itself insists you always allow for) and simply dismissing findings you don't like by invoking the possibility they could be wrong so everyone can just believe whatever they want.
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Re: US Presidential Candidates
Post by The E   » Thu Apr 14, 2016 1:59 pm

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PeterZ wrote:Agreed. I would posit that some goals with real world, objective metrics may bridge such divides.

Improving unemployment is a good one. Create some measurable amount of net new jobs than existed at beginning of the term. Improving the median wage by some stated amount or percentage. Whatever policies that are consistent with those goals should be fine for most people. That is the sort of ideology free goals I am discussing. Like South Africa using their policy on private hunting preserves owning the elephants in their property to increase the elephant population, effective policies might by distasteful but they do work.

Holding one's ideologically sensitive nose in the presence of effective policy is a measure of adulthood.


Okay. You know what a really good way of creating jobs is? Invading China. Lots of job opportunities in that; kicking off a world war requires lots of manpower after all.

Now, obviously that's an absurd example. But ideology can never be counted out completely; there are for example schools of thought that claim that removing as much regulation as possible from the economy will create growth, whereas other schools hold that we can create an environment conducive to more entrepreneurship can be created by creating a robust social safety net.

Both positions can be argued for, both have compelling evidence behind them all over the globe, but they are obviously incompatible to some extent. It is impossible to do both, so which solution should we choose? That's where ideology creeps in again and again.

The idea that we should just science it out and choose the option the objective data points out to us is incredibly compelling. But it doesn't work out that way: The only way to run experiments to get data is by doing it live, and that's obviously a bit risky.
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Re: US Presidential Candidates
Post by thinkstoomuch   » Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:47 pm

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Just to give an example of the difficulty. In addition to The E's post. A simplistic picture and alternate explanations.

From https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=UNRATE

The following image is generated:

Image

Well obviously because the Democrats gained control of Congress the employment rate sky rocketed until a new equilibrium was reached. Then the Republicans gained control of the House of Representatives in 2010 and unemployment started a downward trend. Because they were actually fighting all those battles for limiting the size and scope of the Federal Government.

Unless of course we go by presidents then inflection points change drastically. Then it was all President Bush's fault for the whole thing and it took a while to overcome inertia. Thus President Obama was a savior.

Both of which points are, interestingly enough, the same for the 1990's and President Bush I, President Clinton and The Congresses that they contended with.

Really wish it was as simple as "a" gets you "b".



Of course if you really want to have fun the Illegal immigration and its depressing effect on both the unemployment (also participation rates) and wages is worse. Compounded by the safety net making it so a person can sit at home do nothing and get paid for it. After all the great recession made it so more illegals left than got here so that is the reason that unemployment went down. Somebody had to do those jobs.

One of David Drake's quotes in an afterward really struck a nerve when I reread it recently. Paraphrased, "When someone tells me the cause of the Rome falling was ... I know he is an idiot. There was no one cause."

Have fun,
T2M
-----------------------
Q: “How can something be worth more than it costs? Isn’t everything ‘worth’ what it costs?”
A: “No. That’s just the price. ...
Christopher Anvil from Top Line in "War Games"
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