Climate

Daryl wrote:Thanks T2M, I hadn't seen that particular web page before.
Sorry if I seem strident, will try and be more measured. At 67 I've seen so much change and development, most good, but not all, and I do worry about the future. My environmnt is still excellent where I live, but I travel a lot and see pollution and over development ruining this planet, and while I won't be here in another 40 years, my grand daughters hopefully will be here in another 80 and I fear for them.
...snip...

My poor communications skills again.

I meant you were less strident than the blogger. Which reading over my post does not seem what I typed.

My apologies for that. Especially as I consider you one of the more reasonable people here. Once I get by that separated by a so-called common language thing.

I will address the rest of your post after I spend some time considering it. Just wanted to get the clarification out rapidly as I screwed up.

Have fun,
T2M

Daryl wrote:Thanks T2M, I hadn't seen that particular web page before.
Sorry if I seem strident, will try and be more measured. At 67 I've seen so much change and development, most good, but not all, and I do worry about the future. My environmnt is still excellent where I live, but I travel a lot and see pollution and over development ruining this planet, and while I won't be here in another 40 years, my grand daughters hopefully will be here in another 80 and I fear for them.
For nonAustralians Tasmania is our most southern, bucolic but backward state. Last time I visited I was appalled by how how dry it had become. There were some stupid decisions made by people who should have known better, but to transfer the blame of their stupidity on to a federal Prime Minister whose policy was working every where else is unfair.
As to whether Tasmania's transformation from a cool wet climate for all researched time to the current hot and dry climate on human caused climate change, I suspect that is the case and so do many others.

Worked on this in word in an effort to be more coherent.


I’m not sure if it was fair or unfair. Or even if was or wasn’t abused in other places, for that matter, half a world away and have no clue as to the actual local conditions and such.

What controls were in place to prevent wanton perversion of the new regulations? The failure to envision possible consequences lies with the people who enacted the policies. Not saying everything can be stopped! If a person changed something and it gets a bad result the fault seems self evident to me. How it gets balanced to other places good … way out of my league and again not enough information.


What I am finding interesting in a lot of ways is that Climate is always the cause currently. Much like during the Cold War everything was the fault of communism, socialism, capitalism, aristocrat, oligarch, tyrant, dictator or … , depending on the point of view.

For instance Venezuela’s current leader’s public statement about his country's lack of water. It is the fault of El Nino and Climate Change! Not that the only real reservoir pulls double duty much like the link I provided. Yet when the actual data is examined, at first glance. Rain fall is much the same as it has been historically. Temperature, in that area which is an important distinction reveals a 0.2 C rise since 1950.

No mention of the fact that due to the bread and circus method of maintaining power there have been little or no improvements to the country’s electric grid or power generating capabilities. In 25 years! Despite triple in population.



One of my own concerns in this regard. Due to the new PV Plant for the airport in Cochin, Kerala, India I started looking things up. Denver International Airport put in 10 MW, 2010 final phase, nothing in 2015. According to the installer/operator promises it was supposed to last decades. Seems ominous.

I wander around the US’s EIA power plant database. There were a lot of PV plants start operationally right around the 10 MW range in 2010 that stopped in the end of 2014. No production shown for 2015. Cooking with the sun and then …

I am hoping it is not another example of the same as the hydro people or Abound Solar Panels. Cash in the free money and the heck with the environment. Abound was particularly nasty. Had to bury the “unusable” panels, encased in cement, in a land fill.

Currently I am hoping that, as we are talking small startups for a lot of them, they might just be late reporting. After all Space Coast is run by a huge utility. It has already reported for 2016.


Off topic and a bit of a rant.

Another thing that is really getting on my nerves lately. Crescent Dunes Concentrated Solar Plant (CSP) using Molten Salt for a storage medium. Read their press release latest and greatest thing ever! Just read the renewable energy schills, they parrot the spiel, almost word for word no thought into anything. Brand spanking new tech. Lots of hurdles overcome, ect.

Except that Solana Power Plant has been using the same tech for 2 years already. With almost 50% bigger “claimed” storage. Even getting within 80% of what they promised. Which I consider pretty good, by the way. Have to sell it to investors. Investors should know to discount such stuff. Yet everybody ignores it. Huh?

I go to the NREL website: http://www.nrel.gov/csp/solarpaces/by_country.cfm

Get the following links.
http://www.nrel.gov/csp/solarpaces/proj ... ojectID=23
http://www.nrel.gov/csp/solarpaces/proj ... ojectID=60

Not only are they behind time wise. It took them longer to do less and they get rewarded by "Greenies" (word used with malice and prejudice) who are too stupid to look past the press release.

If greenies want to be a real reporter at least do some work. Until that time they are just more ignorant fools with a internet connection.

Hey look ir1, well not the greenie part.

End rant.

Have fun,
T2M

PS I would hesitate to call Tasmania backward or for that matter Hydro Tasmania a bad company. They are putting a lot of effort into King Island and making Renewable energy work. http://www.kingislandrenewableenergy.com.au/
Though it may be a case of cronyism or greener pasture syndrome in it's worst form if view from the right angle. Disregard the solar input as the widget has issues. Or at least that is what I hope the problem is.

Backward was a somewhat unfair adjective. Less developed, bucolic, poorer, unspoilt are more appropriate. The island has always been seen as having much of its land in pristine wet temperate rainforest. Unfortunately bushfires are now devestating these forests, and unlike the mainland the flora and fauna are not used to coping with fires.
Because of their relative isolation and small population the jokes about two headed citizens abound, they certainly look at things somewhat differently.
Their salmon, cheeses, shellfish, cherries, apples and such are to die for.

Jeez. thats a loot of stupidity, even for manglements. All that focue on the short temr, and none on the long term, and relying on up to 40% of your power on a single cable? thats abou tas bad as aucklands black out back abou the turn of the century (same thing - 1 cable, most of the power, although on land, so only like a month to fix....)

thinkstoomuch wrote:Kinda of interesting reading this and comparing it to FPL and Florida's actions in the recent past.

https://themarcusreview.com/2016/03/16/ ... y-scandal/

It is a from a climate denier. But he seems to bear out a lot of what Daryl has been saying. If I am understanding Daryl's posts correctly. Though he seems a touch more strident.

T2M

Unforunately, I live in Houston and I'm stuck at work during one of the worst floods in Houston history because this severe storm system has stalled over Houston. Beltway 8 is completely closed at the Hardy interchange and I can not reach home due 8 inches of water we have taken since 12:00 am. The power went out here at 5 am and came back at 8 am. We stil have 2 to 3 more days of rain. My limited food supply of cans of corn and green beans plus oatmeal packets will not last the entire time. My family is freaking out because I am going to be stuck at work. So long folks, I think I am going to take a nap before getting back to work.

So much for a nap, I have been watching fox 26 houston, Texas USA. They say this flooding could be worse than the 1994 floods which were either a 250 year storm or a 500 year storm. Sorry about the misspellings but in my defense I am tired, grumpy, and a little scared.

We got it over Saturday and Sunday. Approximately 15 inches of very wet snow that snapped branches, downed power lines and caved in garages/car ports. Traffic wasn't impacted badly because most melted off be late Sunday.

smr wrote:Unforunately, I live in Houston and I'm stuck at work during one of the worst floods in Houston history because this severe storm system has stalled over Houston. Beltway 8 is completely closed at the Hardy interchange and I can not reach home due 8 inches of water we have taken since 12:00 am. The power went out here at 5 am and came back at 8 am. We stil have 2 to 3 more days of rain. My limited food supply of cans of corn and green beans plus oatmeal packets will not last the entire time. My family is freaking out because I am going to be stuck at work. So long folks, I think I am going to take a nap before getting back to work.

So much for a nap, I have been watching fox 26 houston, Texas USA. They say this flooding could be worse than the 1994 floods which were either a 250 year storm or a 500 year storm. Sorry about the misspellings but in my defense I am tired, grumpy, and a little scared.

A simple statement about climate change...

Just randomly happened to look at 2 books about birds, one from late 1980s, one from 2015.
And look at that, migratory birds go further north, and some that used to be migratory now remain all year, despite never having done so on a continual basis before as far as anyone has been able to find out.

Books based on nothing but pure observation, with not the slightest agenda in sight.

Tenshinai wrote:A simple statement about climate change...

Just randomly happened to look at 2 books about birds, one from late 1980s, one from 2015.
And look at that, migratory birds go further north, and some that used to be migratory now remain all year, despite never having done so on a continual basis before as far as anyone has been able to find out.

Books based on nothing but pure observation, with not the slightest agenda in sight.

Simple statement CO2 reduction and My President.

New plant with minimal CO2 output. Output of something like 15 terra watt hours. Funding already in place. Just waiting on federal permission to start construction. 7 years ago. How long has My current President been in office?

Yep that plant would be about a 100 miles from my house.

So even if CO2 was not a concern and energy security was that plant would be producing next year. Hmm. Instead I have a CCGT within 10 and my state is importing less than that amount. Proposed and Approved on his watch.

Of course if Florida was like California we would have more net summer capacity and still import 1/3rd of our power. Because California generates less power than Florida.

As CO2 counts at the generating plant and not the state it is used in that would allow me to feel good about myself while not accomplishing the stated goals.

Wonderful,
T2M

So, getting a bit steamy...

http://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/ ... gh-arctic/
"On October 7th, temperature in Longyearbyen, the regional administrative center, reached 10,1 degrees Celsius. That is the same as the warmest day in June."

"Meanwhile, on Svalbard, the Norwegian archipelago, average measurements from the last 30 days show a temperature of +2,2 degrees. That is 10,7 degrees higher than the norm for this time of year"

"and on Kheis Island, a part of the Franz Josef Land, the thermometers on that same day showed +1,5 degrees.

The normal average November temperature on Kheis is minus 17."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... scientists

"Danish and US researchers monitoring satellites and Arctic weather stations are surprised and alarmed by air temperatures peaking at what they say is an unheard-of 20C higher than normal for the time of year. In addition, sea temperatures averaging nearly 4C higher than usual in October and November."

https://www.wired.com/2016/11/record-te ... ic-winter/

"Thick layers of old sea ice are the Arctic’s buffer against rare weather events—and that kind of ice has been rapidly disappearing. In the 1980s, multiyear ice made up 20 percent of sea ice cover; today, it’s only 3 percent. As those numbers decline, the Arctic becomes more vulnerable to wide temperature fluctuations."


Is it possible that we have already reached the point of no return? That was asked earlier today, and it´s a really, REALLY bad thing if the answer is yes. As that would mean we´re 20-40 years worse off into global warming than predicted.

Until someone can accurately model causality for what we ~~ know historically to be true regarding earth's existing climate, IE Ice ages and FAR higher earth temperatures as little as 10,000 years ago, we have NO idea if adding a little CO2 to the atmosphere will harm anything.

Until then, this entire debate is 100% semantics. We are blathering back and forth about 1 or 2 C even by the worst estimates when the earth's climate as little as 10,000 years ago was far hotter(ended the ice age)with temperature swings over the last ~2 Million years of +/- 10-15C. 10C! Last I checked, none of those temperature swings were human caused...

When the only CO2 data climate "scientists" look at is ice cores, which when they come up out of the glacier go from a pressure of thousands of PSI to 15psi, shattering the cores into itsy bitsy millions of cracks to relieve the stress allowing their gases to escape, and yet this blatant fact is not, biased/correlated in their data, we have a massive problem with these so called "scientists".

Now add that all of the climate models do not model the Pacific thermal upwelling or the Atlantic or Indian Ocean due to differential cloud cover and water vapor transport into the upper atmosphere and the entire "debate" becomes a pathetically bad joke. Why is this massive effect not modeled? Because it is chaos theory at the moment and we have no idea how to model it. So, 70% of the earths surface, which has a thermal coefficient many times higher than land, comprising the vast majority of thermal transport, we have no idea how to model its causality to earth's temperature. Brilliant scientific deduction!

When climate so called "scientists" used to measure 15,000 stations and then dropped the number to 7000 when the USSR fell, we have a problem. (Kept the ones in cities of course...) Why do we have a problem? Because most of those station in the old USSR received their fuel allotment every year based on how COLD their region was. So, naturally we have this giant temperature rise in the data. No more fuel shipments, and guess what? The temperatures rose "mysteriously". Of course the old data reflecting the colder earth before the 80's, "mysteriously" still kept all this fabricated data, while the new data with most of those stations removed, "mysteriously" increased in temperature... Ah, nothing quite like smell of corrupt politically motivated skewed "science".

Ah, but by all means, lets tackle the earth shattering problem of cow farts...
http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2016/0 ... ornia-law/
It doesn't matter that the plains of the USA/Canada used to be covered by 30-->70Million Bison... So, now we are to believe that a 2X->3X increase in cow farts is horrific? Right... Doesn't count the fact that Bison are 40% larger than cows... and eat more... Doesn't count Deer/Elk/Antelope...(Another ~~~30million) Nothing quite like letting human caused climate religion get in the way of science and common sense now...