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Grayson v. Haven

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Re: Grayson v. Haven
Post by cthia   » Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:51 pm

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Meshakhad wrote:
cthia wrote:No, truthfully, I actually meant Apollo. I remember that the RMN enjoyed a range advantage then, I just misremembered it being Apollo. Sorry.

Believe it or not, I wanted Grayson to do just that. Grayson was double-crossed by the Manticoran government.

Question is, what were the tactical and strategic considerations preventing White Haven from doing just that - going directly for the heart of the Haven system? His next stop wasn't Haven as I recall. I think the tactical considerations was the possibility of getting hit from behind?

Why wouldn't Grayson have been bound by the same strategic considerations/limitations -- hence, available fleet train support to carry out a somewhat extended operation. Rearming included.


White Haven was thinking in terms of taking and holding systems. There's no way the GSN could have fought a conventional war like that on its own. This would be Grayson pulling an Operation Beatrice, going for a total knockout by destroying Capital Fleet and forcing Saint-Just to surrender.

There is, of course, the possibility that the People's Navy would ignore Saint-Just's surrender and instead seek to recapture Haven from the Graysons. Assuming Manticore stayed on the sidelines, it would have come down to whether Grayson's logistics or Haven's politics would have failed first.

cthia wrote:Yes, but in a theater of war, strategically why White Haven wanted to take the systems then hold them is to prevent a powerful enough of a force to flank or trap.

You can't just blow by key enemy fortifications on your way to your objective and leave them intact. It's like surrounding yourself with the enemy. Exposing yourself to being outmaneuvered by a counter-offensive - pincered, flanked and swarmed.


On second thought, that is exactly what Beatrice did isn't it? In the era of Honorverse military capabilities, a blitzkrieg gets a shot of steroids.

But, right back to a previous question, what were the tactical considerations preventing White Haven from doing the same thing instead of wasting so much time? It could have been over.

I like this scenario.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Grayson v. Haven
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Feb 22, 2016 11:25 pm

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cthia wrote:
Meshakhad wrote:
White Haven was thinking in terms of taking and holding systems. There's no way the GSN could have fought a conventional war like that on its own. This would be Grayson pulling an Operation Beatrice, going for a total knockout by destroying Capital Fleet and forcing Saint-Just to surrender.

There is, of course, the possibility that the People's Navy would ignore Saint-Just's surrender and instead seek to recapture Haven from the Graysons. Assuming Manticore stayed on the sidelines, it would have come down to whether Grayson's logistics or Haven's politics would have failed first.

Yes, but in a theater of war, strategically why White Haven wanted to take the systems then hold them is to prevent a powerful enough of a force to flank or trap.

You can't just blow by key enemy fortifications on your way to your objective and leave them intact. It's like surrounding yourself with the enemy. Exposing yourself to being outmaneuvered by a counter-offensive - pincered, flanked and swarmed.

.

That was first(half) war thinking. But honestly, even with old style SDs you're not very likely to be decisively surrounded on a deep raid. You can reduced the defenses and be long gone before even a 'nearby' nodal reaction force can hear about it an respond.
And unlike on earth in the last 50-60 years it's almost impossible to detect an Honorverse naval formation before it arrives at it's target; and almost impossible to intercept it when it retreats.

Finally even if caught in-system your forces only needs to fend off the counterattack long enough to reach the hyperlimit and escape (possibly, unfortunately leaving some crippled units behind). And while towed pods can knock some units out early it then gets down to a slow slugging match between walls; hard to decisively win before the losing side managed to reach the wall and disappear.



But even in the first war both sides knew that in theory a knockout blow against the enemy home system was possible. But neither was willing to strip the defenses from enough of their other systems to free up the units necessary to be sure they could crush the home fleet and fixed defenses of the other's capital. It's just in that phase of the war they try to apply that logic to targets of less critical importance (which would require far lower force levels to effectively raid). Half the reason they attacked was to entice the defender to fight so they could inflict attritional damage on their fleet - hoping to eventually reach a force balance where they could make the decisive lunge against the home system without having to first critically weaken their own defenses.

And if you're doing that slow attritional grinding there are operational tempo benefits to seizing and holding advanced systems where you can put repair yards and supply stockpiles. Cut out wasted transit time shuttling back to your home yards before the next attritional push.


The radical improvements in firepower the MDMs and SD(P)s brought invalidated the strategic need to grind away system by system inflicting attritional damage because, against pre-pod SDs, they could virtually annihilate any size force they could catch. So may as well go straight for the big bases - wipe out whatever fleet gets in your way then throw a spanner in the logistics of any fleets supported by the base when you wreck the base and destroy it's supply/ammo stockpiles.
Though given that virtually all the modern units were concentrated in 8th fleet there was some risk that remote PSN fleets might ignore orders to surrender if Haven was taken by a single long range assault; if they launched all costs attacks against the conventionally defended frontier or allied systems the RMN was responsible for defending that could be messy.


So White Haven basically used 8th fleet for a hyper accelerated version of the attritional tactics that both sides had been using up to that date. It's just the attrition was all one sided, and swept though all those systems in weeks of campaigning; not years. After all if the tactics were working, however slowly, and you had the option to radically accelerate them why try to come up with new tactics? And by causing the destruction or surrender of the PSN units in the broad corridor centered on the path between Trevor's Star and Haven you radically reduced the ability for the PSN to launch a spoiling counter-attack against the convention forces the RMN left holding the fort.
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Re: Grayson v. Haven
Post by cthia   » Tue Feb 23, 2016 12:47 am

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cthia wrote:
Meshakhad wrote:
White Haven was thinking in terms of taking and holding systems. There's no way the GSN could have fought a conventional war like that on its own. This would be Grayson pulling an Operation Beatrice, going for a total knockout by destroying Capital Fleet and forcing Saint-Just to surrender.

There is, of course, the possibility that the People's Navy would ignore Saint-Just's surrender and instead seek to recapture Haven from the Graysons. Assuming Manticore stayed on the sidelines, it would have come down to whether Grayson's logistics or Haven's politics would have failed first.

Yes, but in a theater of war, strategically why White Haven wanted to take the systems then hold them is to prevent a powerful enough of a force to flank or trap.

You can't just blow by key enemy fortifications on your way to your objective and leave them intact. It's like surrounding yourself with the enemy. Exposing yourself to being outmaneuvered by a counter-offensive - pincered, flanked and swarmed.

.

Jonathan_S wrote:That was first(half) war thinking. But honestly, even with old style SDs you're not very likely to be decisively surrounded on a deep raid. You can reduced the defenses and be long gone before even a 'nearby' nodal reaction force can hear about it an respond.
And unlike on earth in the last 50-60 years it's almost impossible to detect an Honorverse naval formation before it arrives at it's target; and almost impossible to intercept it when it retreats.

Finally even if caught in-system your forces only needs to fend off the counterattack long enough to reach the hyperlimit and escape (possibly, unfortunately leaving some crippled units behind). And while towed pods can knock some units out early it then gets down to a slow slugging match between walls; hard to decisively win before the losing side managed to reach the wall and disappear.



But even in the first war both sides knew that in theory a knockout blow against the enemy home system was possible. But neither was willing to strip the defenses from enough of their other systems to free up the units necessary to be sure they could crush the home fleet and fixed defenses of the other's capital. It's just in that phase of the war they try to apply that logic to targets of less critical importance (which would require far lower force levels to effectively raid). Half the reason they attacked was to entice the defender to fight so they could inflict attritional damage on their fleet - hoping to eventually reach a force balance where they could make the decisive lunge against the home system without having to first critically weaken their own defenses.

And if you're doing that slow attritional grinding there are operational tempo benefits to seizing and holding advanced systems where you can put repair yards and supply stockpiles. Cut out wasted transit time shuttling back to your home yards before the next attritional push.


The radical improvements in firepower the MDMs and SD(P)s brought invalidated the strategic need to grind away system by system inflicting attritional damage because, against pre-pod SDs, they could virtually annihilate any size force they could catch. So may as well go straight for the big bases - wipe out whatever fleet gets in your way then throw a spanner in the logistics of any fleets supported by the base when you wreck the base and destroy it's supply/ammo stockpiles.
Though given that virtually all the modern units were concentrated in 8th fleet there was some risk that remote PSN fleets might ignore orders to surrender if Haven was taken by a single long range assault; if they launched all costs attacks against the conventionally defended frontier or allied systems the RMN was responsible for defending that could be messy.


So White Haven basically used 8th fleet for a hyper accelerated version of the attritional tactics that both sides had been using up to that date. It's just the attrition was all one sided, and swept though all those systems in weeks of campaigning; not years. After all if the tactics were working, however slowly, and you had the option to radically accelerate them why try to come up with new tactics? And by causing the destruction or surrender of the PSN units in the broad corridor centered on the path between Trevor's Star and Haven you radically reduced the ability for the PSN to launch a spoiling counter-attack against the convention forces the RMN left holding the fort.

Nice analysis Jonathan.

Yet, I'm going to have to question whether the missile range advantage afforded by the MDMs was enough to punch through like that. It wasn't Apollo, as you've pointed out. (And why I initially thought Apollo was on the table then.)

I think Lovat would have had to be punched out first. Haven's home fleet was never drawn down like Manticore's. It would have been a protracted battle requiring a series of rearms.

Incidentally, another reason to punch out a path along the way, traditionally, other than to prevent an assembling and coordination of an enemy force to later outmaneuver you as I've mentioned upstream, is to also keep your rear areas clear to keep your supply lines open.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Grayson v. Haven
Post by kzt   » Tue Feb 23, 2016 12:56 am

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cthia wrote:Yet, I'm going to have to question whether the missile range advantage afforded by the MDMs was enough to punch through like that. It wasn't Apollo, as you've pointed out. (And why I initially thought Apollo was on the table then.)

I think Lovat would have had to be punched out first. Haven's home fleet was never drawn down like Manticore's. It would have been a protracted battle requiring a series of rearms.

Incidentally, another reason to punch out a path along the way, traditionally, other than to prevent an assembling and coordination of an enemy force to later outmaneuver you as I've mentioned upstream, is to also keep your rear areas clear to keep your supply lines open.

Their is a story that covers how the peeps reacted to the new RMN ships when they were revealed. I think it was in beginnings. So no, I think you can pretty much say that the only limiting factor is ammunition. It's panzers vs pikemen.
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Re: Grayson v. Haven
Post by cthia   » Tue Feb 23, 2016 1:13 am

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kzt wrote:
cthia wrote:Yet, I'm going to have to question whether the missile range advantage afforded by the MDMs was enough to punch through like that. It wasn't Apollo, as you've pointed out. (And why I initially thought Apollo was on the table then.)

I think Lovat would have had to be punched out first. Haven's home fleet was never drawn down like Manticore's. It would have been a protracted battle requiring a series of rearms.

Incidentally, another reason to punch out a path along the way, traditionally, other than to prevent an assembling and coordination of an enemy force to later outmaneuver you as I've mentioned upstream, is to also keep your rear areas clear to keep your supply lines open.

Their is a story that covers how the peeps reacted to the new RMN ships when they were revealed. I think it was in beginnings. So no, I think you can pretty much say that the only limiting factor is ammunition. It's panzers vs pikemen.

Which echos my sentiment opined in my second point. 1)Prevent an enemy concentration of forces in your rear 2)Ensure that your supply lines are kept open. Fleet trains aren't given passes.

Operating deep within enemy territory, the huge Haven system, there is no benefit of wormholes once you get there. You're a long way from home. The logistics would have been a bit different than what had to be achieved with Beatrice. An enemy knows that you must resupply. Haven would have cut off the supply lines. It is what an enemy does. The fleet train would have been heavily attacked and a no show in a protracted battle - had Lovat not been punched out first.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Grayson v. Haven
Post by cthia   » Tue Feb 23, 2016 7:56 am

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Meshakhad wrote:I had a thought a while back. So, after High Ridge signed the cease fire with Saint-Just, Grayson was pissed. Pissed... and had plenty of SD(P)s.

Let's ignore the political dimensions for a moment. Assuming that he could persuade everyone involved to go along with it, what would happen if Benjamin decided to carry on the war without Manticore? If he assembled a fleet, put Honor in command, and told her to take Haven, could she do it?

I imagine that militarily there would be nothing to stop her. Even with Theisman in command, the Graysons could tear right through Capital Fleet.

Of course, after the moment has passed, Harrington's career in the RMN would be over. Court martial is a real possibility. Where would the end of the sword point?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Grayson v. Haven
Post by Jonathan_S   » Tue Feb 23, 2016 10:51 am

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cthia wrote:
kzt wrote:Their is a story that covers how the peeps reacted to the new RMN ships when they were revealed. I think it was in beginnings. So no, I think you can pretty much say that the only limiting factor is ammunition. It's panzers vs pikemen.

Which echos my sentiment opined in my second point. 1)Prevent an enemy concentration of forces in your rear 2)Ensure that your supply lines are kept open. Fleet trains aren't given passes.

Operating deep within enemy territory, the huge Haven system, there is no benefit of wormholes once you get there. You're a long way from home. The logistics would have been a bit different than what had to be achieved with Beatrice. An enemy knows that you must resupply. Haven would have cut off the supply lines. It is what an enemy does. The fleet train would have been heavily attacked and a no show in a protracted battle - had Lovat not been punched out first.

It's nowhere near as critical to prevent enemy forces behind you in Honoverse naval combat than it is in Earth ground combat, or even Earth 20th century naval combat.

It's basically impossible for systems between you and your home bases to detect, much less interdict, your supply lines. Now you do need a secure, or at least isolated, n-space rendezvous where you can link up with your fleet train and resupply; but actually intercepting the ships in transit isn't a realistic proposition. In other words it turns out you basically can't get your supply lines cut, on a strategic level, no mater what forces are left behind you.

The exception to that is if your fleet train is hopscotching through a series of captured systems resupplying them as the convoy moves to the front. Then it's vulnerable to attack should it turn out any of those systems was recaptured, or it had the bad luck to be moving into / out of the system when a raid came through. But it's vulnerable because it's in n-space in those systems. But if it's just going direct through hyper to a secret rendezvous spot... not going to get intercepted; not if you took even the most basic precautions.


As for the risk of leaving enemy forces behind you. That's more similar to Napolionic era (or earlier) naval combat. Its going to take weeks for them to get the message that you've bypassed them, while even extremely long naval battles take mere days. If you hold the system they can well arrive before your reenforcements; and drive you out. However there are three situations where that doesn't matter.
1) You're only raiding, not holding the system. You'll be gone before they arrive
2) You're attacking the capital system; if you win the surrendered government will just order the newly arrived fleet to also surrender. (And if you lost you already retreated long before they arrived)
3) You have sufficient ammo and firepower to take the system and also blow away the responding bypassed fleets.

During Buttercup a lunge straight at Haven would be covered by 2 and almost certainly also by 3.

But lets address what happens if the bypassed force does miraculously arrive while you're still fighting. They're not likely to manage to do so unobserved; especially since by that time Manticore did have micro-fusion powered, long endurance, ghost rider recon drones. And Manticore had an acceleration advantage, as well as their missile range advantage. Even if their ammo was low enough that they needed to break off instead of simply wiping out both the new and old defenders they will all be undamaged (as they never closed within the enemy's own missile range) and can just lob salvos over their shoulders while they run towards an empty part of the hyper limit. Most likely despite being caught in a pincer style attack they're able to remain out of SDM range the entire time. Hardly the worst outcome - they'll inflict at minimum significant losses on both defending forces while suffering nothing worse that ammo depletion.

But even if forced into SDM range of one, or both, forces the Buttercup era SD(P)s were equipped with what was believed necessary to survive in prolonged podnaught combat. They might get their defenses saturated by the initial salvo from the Peeps; if they had enough towed pods. But after that the SD(P)s should easily be able to beat off the much weaker attacks from the old SDs onboard tubes. So even in a near worst case, pinned between two forces within SDM range it's unlikely the Peeps could inflict major losses before the 8th fleet units make it to the hyper wall and disappeared.


The one risk I can see of leaving bypassed heavy forces is that they're closer to your base that you are and could reach it before you return from your deep raid. So if they had sufficient strength to raid you base against its permanent defenses (but not while the offensive forces are there) and they get a courier that you're attacking a system 40 ly behind them, they could launch a counter-raid at your base of operations. By the time they get the message you've already completed the raid and begun home. But they've probably got a day or so headstart; so if they've been waiting ready for this opportunity they can beat you home, pull of their raid, and be at least heading out for the hyperlimit before your raiding forces get back. But the timing it tight, and it only works if your forward base isn't strongly enough held.
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Re: Grayson v. Haven
Post by Somtaaw   » Tue Feb 23, 2016 11:10 am

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cthia wrote:
Meshakhad wrote:I had a thought a while back. So, after High Ridge signed the cease fire with Saint-Just, Grayson was pissed. Pissed... and had plenty of SD(P)s.

Let's ignore the political dimensions for a moment. Assuming that he could persuade everyone involved to go along with it, what would happen if Benjamin decided to carry on the war without Manticore? If he assembled a fleet, put Honor in command, and told her to take Haven, could she do it?

I imagine that militarily there would be nothing to stop her. Even with Theisman in command, the Graysons could tear right through Capital Fleet.

Of course, after the moment has passed, Harrington's career in the RMN would be over. Court martial is a real possibility. Where would the end of the sword point?



Honor's reputation with the everyday Manticoran, in addition to seemingly the majority of the Fleet liked Honor and thought well of her. Additionally, if she were 'called home' to serve her duty as the GSN Fleet Admiral, and commanding purely GSN units, there is quite literally nothing Janacek could do.

As it was, he'd already beached her just because he didn't like her, and White Haven for the same reason. Since the RMN has the tradition of loaning beached officers to allies, and she was serving strictly in her role as a commissioned officer in the GSN, unless Draskovic fixed the computers that are supposed to give a totally random selection of officers for courts martial?

Of course, if Draskovic HAD fixed the computers, Honor's defense lawyer upon seeing that the computer was fixed to provide a hostile court could have the whole thing thrown out, and/or a re-selection process done... as per how they initially attempted to get Pavel Young off. They might try, but it'd just rebound on them even harder than when they tried to smear White Haven and Honor as lovers cheating on Emily, short-term gain followed by major long-term loss of face.
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Re: Grayson v. Haven
Post by cthia   » Tue Feb 23, 2016 12:11 pm

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cthia wrote:
kzt wrote:Their is a story that covers how the peeps reacted to the new RMN ships when they were revealed. I think it was in beginnings. So no, I think you can pretty much say that the only limiting factor is ammunition. It's panzers vs pikemen.

Which echos my sentiment opined in my second point. 1)Prevent an enemy concentration of forces in your rear 2)Ensure that your supply lines are kept open. Fleet trains aren't given passes.

Operating deep within enemy territory, the huge Haven system, there is no benefit of wormholes once you get there. You're a long way from home. The logistics would have been a bit different than what had to be achieved with Beatrice. An enemy knows that you must resupply. Haven would have cut off the supply lines. It is what an enemy does. The fleet train would have been heavily attacked and a no show in a protracted battle - had Lovat not been punched out first.

Jonathan_S wrote:It's nowhere near as critical to prevent enemy forces behind you in Honoverse naval combat than it is in Earth ground combat, or even Earth 20th century naval combat.

It's basically impossible for systems between you and your home bases to detect, much less interdict, your supply lines. Now you do need a secure, or at least isolated, n-space rendezvous where you can link up with your fleet train and resupply; but actually intercepting the ships in transit isn't a realistic proposition. In other words it turns out you basically can't get your supply lines cut, on a strategic level, no mater what forces are left behind you.

The exception to that is if your fleet train is hopscotching through a series of captured systems resupplying them as the convoy moves to the front. Then it's vulnerable to attack should it turn out any of those systems was recaptured, or it had the bad luck to be moving into / out of the system when a raid came through. But it's vulnerable because it's in n-space in those systems. But if it's just going direct through hyper to a secret rendezvous spot... not going to get intercepted; not if you took even the most basic precautions.


As for the risk of leaving enemy forces behind you. That's more similar to Napolionic era (or earlier) naval combat. Its going to take weeks for them to get the message that you've bypassed them, while even extremely long naval battles take mere days. If you hold the system they can well arrive before your reenforcements; and drive you out. However there are three situations where that doesn't matter.
1) You're only raiding, not holding the system. You'll be gone before they arrive
2) You're attacking the capital system; if you win the surrendered government will just order the newly arrived fleet to also surrender. (And if you lost you already retreated long before they arrived)
3) You have sufficient ammo and firepower to take the system and also blow away the responding bypassed fleets.

During Buttercup a lunge straight at Haven would be covered by 2 and almost certainly also by 3.

But lets address what happens if the bypassed force does miraculously arrive while you're still fighting. They're not likely to manage to do so unobserved; especially since by that time Manticore did have micro-fusion powered, long endurance, ghost rider recon drones. And Manticore had an acceleration advantage, as well as their missile range advantage. Even if their ammo was low enough that they needed to break off instead of simply wiping out both the new and old defenders they will all be undamaged (as they never closed within the enemy's own missile range) and can just lob salvos over their shoulders while they run towards an empty part of the hyper limit. Most likely despite being caught in a pincer style attack they're able to remain out of SDM range the entire time. Hardly the worst outcome - they'll inflict at minimum significant losses on both defending forces while suffering nothing worse that ammo depletion.

But even if forced into SDM range of one, or both, forces the Buttercup era SD(P)s were equipped with what was believed necessary to survive in prolonged podnaught combat. They might get their defenses saturated by the initial salvo from the Peeps; if they had enough towed pods. But after that the SD(P)s should easily be able to beat off the much weaker attacks from the old SDs onboard tubes. So even in a near worst case, pinned between two forces within SDM range it's unlikely the Peeps could inflict major losses before the 8th fleet units make it to the hyper wall and disappeared.


The one risk I can see of leaving bypassed heavy forces is that they're closer to your base that you are and could reach it before you return from your deep raid. So if they had sufficient strength to raid you base against its permanent defenses (but not while the offensive forces are there) and they get a courier that you're attacking a system 40 ly behind them, they could launch a counter-raid at your base of operations. By the time they get the message you've already completed the raid and begun home. But they've probably got a day or so headstart; so if they've been waiting ready for this opportunity they can beat you home, pull of their raid, and be at least heading out for the hyperlimit before your raiding forces get back. But the timing it tight, and it only works if your forward base isn't strongly enough held.

You're describing the slings and arrows of outrageous misfortune suffered by the Blackbird base.

You're probably right Jonathan. I'm most likely projecting too much of the logistics of present-day warfare onto the Honorverse - whereby in present day warfare my aforementioned strategic concerns would ring true.

Still not completely convinced (stubborn streak), mostly derived from a lack of understanding Honorverse warfare.

Haven is a much larger system than Manticore. A Manticoran fleet would be operating deep within the Haven system. Taking Trevor's Star wasn't easy and the RMN had benefit of wormhole support. Deep within enemy territory it would be different. You almost have to seize a base in which to operate. That base would be a target and is your entire supply line. Reason being, you have to enter n-space to resupply such specific items as reactor mass. That is going to require a base. Operating deep within enemy territory as large as Haven, you are going to be spotted operating in n-space. Too many freighters, couriers etc., operating. I don't see that you're going to be able to pull back at some arbitrary point in space to rearm from a protracted battle, when you already have to overcome a full strength Nouveau Paris home fleet. And once you stick your head in-system, couriers, and light units are going to bolt for the back door running and screaming Case Zulu.

Unlike Beatrice, Manticore wouldn't be coming with hundreds of ships in hopes to blitzkrieg. Grayson's 25 SDs vs Haven's full strength home fleet (which I imagine was significantly larger that Manticore's anyway), plus the fact that many other units would be racing in-system to consolidate and concentrate - units on the peripheral of the home system as Sphinx is from Manticore, would compound your problem.

I'll yield to your better understanding of Honorverse logistics. Yet, I never got the impression from storyline that had White Haven continued the offensive and eventually gone for Haven, that it was expected to be a short victorious battle.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Grayson v. Haven
Post by Jonathan_S   » Tue Feb 23, 2016 12:55 pm

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cthia wrote:Still not completely convinced (stubborn streak), mostly derived from a lack of understanding Honorverse warfare.

Haven is a much larger system than Manticore. A Manticoran fleet would be operating deep within the Haven system. Taking Trevor's Star wasn't easy and the RMN had benefit of wormhole support. Deep within enemy territory it would be different. You almost have to seize a base in which to operate. That base would be a target and is your entire supply line. Reason being, you have to enter n-space to resupply such specific items as reactor mass. That is going to require a base. Operating deep within enemy territory as large as Haven, you are going to be spotted operating in n-space. Too many freighters, couriers etc., operating. I don't see that you're going to be able to pull back at some arbitrary point in space to rearm from a protracted battle, when you already have to overcome a full strength Nouveau Paris home fleet. And once you stick your head in-system, couriers, and light units are going to bolt for the back door running and screaming Case Zulu.

Unlike Beatrice, Manticore wouldn't be coming with hundreds of ships in hopes to blitzkrieg. Grayson's 25 SDs vs Haven's full strength home fleet (which I imagine was significantly larger that Manticore's anyway), plus the fact that many other units would be racing in-system to consolidate and concentrate - units on the peripheral of the home system as Sphinx is from Manticore, would compound your problem.

I'll yield to your better understanding of Honorverse logistics. Yet, I never got the impression from storyline that had White Haven continued the offensive and eventually gone for Haven, that it was expected to be a short victorious battle.
Trevor's star was before the new MDMs and SD(P)s rendered the older conventional SDs nearly helpless targets.

Also Trevor's Star had to be held against potential heavy counterattacks of roughly as capable units, whereas if you seized the orbitals of Haven they're compelled to surrender and order any forces in the system (or entering the system) to surrender. (Plus you've still got the huge imbalance in per-unit effectiveness)


I do agree that if you want to fight a prolonged campaign hitting system after system that seizing and holding a base closer to the front significantly improves your operational tempo. It isn't strictly required, as Honor showed with the Sanscript and Cutworm raids, since you could raid and return all the way to the frontier (in her case Trevor's Star); but it helps a lot.

I'd also point out that Tourville's Operation Gobi against Zanzibar in At All Costs (prior to the Battle of Manticore) shows that it is possible for a deep raid to bring along an organic fleet train and set up a deep space rendezvous with in to quickly resupply between phases of combat. Not great if you're trying to set up to raid 20 nearby systems, but sufficient to handle a multi-wave raid against a single strong system (Operation Gobi) or a grand tour raid of several well separated systems before looping back to your main base. (Again especially in the immediate post-Buttercup era where the system defenses were horribly outranged by the RMN or GSN forces and so were unlikely to inflict damage requiring you to break off the raid. Things were a bit different by the time you were post-Thunderbolt and you could expect to take damage from massive fixed system defenses built around MDM pods -- even in relatively unimportant systems)
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