Turning points in the RMN/RHN war

Duckk wrote:And as discussed later in that linked topic, David said that the RMN decided to err on the side of pessimism regarding how effective the defenses were. As experience caught up, they realized that any attack through the Junction would have been an expensive way to commit suicide.

It's probably barely practical to force the MWHJ using two different terminus (termini?) against forts armed with energy weapons and mines using shaped fusion bombs, so say prior to 1870 or so. By 1903, not so much.

cthia wrote:would it have moved up the likelihood of something like Beatrice to happen much sooner, needing to use the double termini axis of threat before losing Trevor's Star?

The tactical options engenders memories of one of my old (common staple) football plays -- the *screen play. Haven could have allowed White Haven to come in, then launch the double termini attack on Manticore. An excellently executed screen play.

*Of course, a screen play in American football is when the offense telegraphs a running play and intentionally allows the defensive line to penetrate, but it was a pass play all along. A quick pass in the backfield with a screen of lineman leading the way, away from several defensive players that are now out of position to make the tackle.

Could that particular simultaneous attack have been 'somewhat spontaneously' coordinated - without a preplanned kickoff time?

*Somewhat spontaneous, as in launching as an effect of White Haven's prong of attack at Trevor's Star.

Of course it turns out that the worries about even a double axis wormhole assault were overblown. The pre-war exercises underestimated the effectiveness of laserhead armed forts in defending against hostile transits.

And even those exercises required Haven to exchange most of it's BB fleet to wipe out the forts.
In actuality, based on early war experience, if Haven had been aggressive enough to try the likely outcome would have been complete loss of their attacking force for only moderate damage to the junction defenses.

And that assumes the forts hadn't been significantly equipped with towed pods - if they had they could likely have wiped out a double thrust for virtually no damage.

[Edit: I now see several other people already made the same point ]

kzt wrote:

Duckk wrote:And as discussed later in that linked topic, David said that the RMN decided to err on the side of pessimism regarding how effective the defenses were. As experience caught up, they realized that any attack through the Junction would have been an expensive way to commit suicide.

It's probably barely practical to force the MWHJ using two different terminus (termini?) against forts armed with energy weapons and mines using shaped fusion bombs, so say prior to 1870 or so. By 1903, not so much.

After the Laserhead got effective stand-off range to cover the entire emergence lane, MDMs allowed favorable sprint speeds for missiles to engage from range, and Pods allowed massive enough salvos to saturate the lane with every launch - I don't think any force stands a chance.

We'll after you send all 10,000 wallers of the BF through, all the BCs from the BF and FF, and all the CAs from the FF through, there may be some ammo concerns when they start having to engage the CLs.

Theemile wrote:After the Laserhead got effective stand-off range to cover the entire emergence lane, MDMs allowed favorable sprint speeds for missiles to engage from range, and Pods allowed massive enough salvos to saturate the lane with every launch - I don't think any force stands a chance.

Even MDMs are probably overkill. Warning: lengthy essay on my views of the historic balance of wormhole defense as laserheads become available.

The problem with old-style "shaped" fusion bomb mines is you needed to be really close (compared to a laser head) and you couldn't pack them so closely that they took each other out by proximity kills.

So an attacker willing the send a large enough force can force you to expend your mines and then your forts don't have that support. Also, I'm not sure that a even a missile with a 'burn mode' fusion head had enough standoff range to engage a target in the transit lane from outside the grav shear of the wormhole exit. They'd probably have to drop their wedges and coast close enough to detonate. (Because if their wedge touches the grav shear the missile ceases to exist in any useful form) That gives the target's PDLCs a much better chance of picking them off prior to detonation. Contact nukes would be in even worse shape because they'd have to coast further to reach their detonation point. (Also it's a good thing their targets couldn't bring up sidewalls while in the grav shear because that same shear would prevent the nukes from using their pent aids to attempt to breach a sidewall)

Laserhead mines are somewhat better off. You still can't replenish them, but their increased standoff range (20, then 30, and now 50,000 km standoff) compared to shaped charge 'burn' mines means you can fit more of them into the engagement volume while still maintaining the necessary separation to prevent mutual destruction through proximity kills.


Then laserhead missiles with that same standoff can also engage from beyond the grav shear. So their standoff range, plus no coasting period, makes them far harder PDLC targets than pre-laserhead missiles. And unlike mines you keep sending fresh salvos in, each unaffected by any proximity blast from the preceding one. So you can sustain a given level of fire for far longer than with mines.


Now even with energy range combat the forts have a range advantage. While in the exit lane the grav shear prevents the hostile ships from raising sidewalls, but the forts can hang back out of that zone and use their sidewalls. That given them a significant "immunity zone" where their heavy energy mounts are effective against the bare armor of the hostile ships, but the ship's energy mounts can't burn through the fort's sidewalls.
It's not until an enemy can survive the minutes it takes to clear a Junction lane that they can bring up sidewalls, and begin using missiles and CMs, thus equalizing the fight between them and the forts.

Still even with those advantages pre-pod and pre-laserhead it appeared possible to send enough forces to cause all the mines that could be emplaced around the 'lane' to be expended and ships to survive the unanswerable weapons fire from forts long enough to break clear of the lane and bring their full weapons and defenses to bear. They'd take horrible losses, but if enough force was sent they could brute force their way through and chew up the forts.
But once laserheads came around... The losses become so high it doesn't seem possible to send sufficient tonnage, even through a pair of termini, to persevere.

Making Manty strategists, or even just the less military savy politicians worry, about a double assault would have had its own benefits. Erring on the side of caution is still erring. Then there's the spectre of a three sided assault (both Termini plus hyper space), though I don't think the Peeps would have the ability and/or audacity to try it. Having two termini in enemy hands might have resulted in more resources devoted to fixed defenses, which would suit the Peeps in the war they thought they were going to get.

Particularly since by 1900 Amos Parnell didn't want to fight Manticore at all. If he could open the northern route into Silesia by taking and holding Basilisk, he would have moved straight in there - and then asked Manticore and the Empire just what they wanted to do about it. Neither would have been strong enough to take the Confederacy back; either, or worse still both, would be far too powerful to be straightforward conquests, and I'm reasonably sure that as long as Parnell was in charge of PRH strategy he'd have argued for leaving them alone and reaching a modus vivendi.

Given that even the PRH would have been an improvement over the current situation, the Peeps probably would have done well enough out of Silesia to stabilise their economy for another generation or so. After which, the wheels would have come seriously off, if only because everybody around them would have by then forted up to the point where the up-front cost of further expansion would have made it pointless. What the ultimate outcome would have been - assuming there were no murky figures stirring pots in peculiar places, of course - I'm not at all sure, but I imagine that it would have resembled the collapse of the Mongol empire more than anything else: progressive failure of central authority combined with assorted nibbling and/or rendering of the edges.

noblehunter wrote:Making Manty strategists, or even just the less military savy politicians worry, about a double assault would have had its own benefits. Erring on the side of caution is still erring. Then there's the spectre of a three sided assault (both Termini plus hyper space), though I don't think the Peeps would have the ability and/or audacity to try it. Having two termini in enemy hands might have resulted in more resources devoted to fixed defenses, which would suit the Peeps in the war they thought they were going to get.

cthia wrote:For my own peace of mind, if such an attack is so easy to thwart, then why is this sort of concern such an integral part of storyline? -- Manticore preventing anyone from attaining access to a wormhole to attack them -- definitely not giving up two.

An attack trough a wormhole is easy to thwart, IF you are prepared to thwart it.

If you're not prepared, you get something like the "Zunker incident" where a couple of Rolands with an ammo ship popped out of the Zunker Wormhole and took control of the system.

As Duckk points out, with experience, the RMN realized they were over-prepared to thwart a wormhole attack, but that is vastly preferable to being under-prepared.

I would say the first battle of Hancock and third battle of Yeltsin star. PRH losing these battles put them in the situation that allowed Pierre to stage his take over the government and form the Committee of Public Safety. What the Committee of Public Safety did to the military command structure did more damage then direct fighting Mantiocore Alliance ever did.

It has been suggested that the space combat experience of the PRH was overstated as they had yet to fight anything other then quick blitzkrieg conquests of small weak powers. They had no real experience in dealing with a long war. The other issue is how much of PRH fleet was needed to keep it conquests from rebelling as well as just regular defense of it worlds. In practical terms they had a much smaller number of ships that could be used for offensive operations then the number on paper would suggest.

The BBs provide rear area security. They were not terribly useful against modern forces, though hell on wheels against people without SDs or a hell of a lot of laser heads.

kzt wrote:The BBs provide rear area security. They were not terribly useful against modern forces, though hell on wheels against people without SDs or a hell of a lot of laser heads.

It's a matter of what they were intended to defend against, coming from out of the system. (Apart from keeping a boot on the planet's neck.)

SD's, DN's, a hell of a lot of laserheads, would all scrag a BB. But with many systems to defend, many of which without too much strategic value and far from the front, those systems wouldn't be facing wallers or vast numbers - they'd be facing cruiser and battlecruiser raids. A battleship in that case wouldn't be able to chase the cruisers down, but it would be able to remain between the raiders and objectives well within the hyperlimit and be able to dominate any missile or energy engagement the raiders choose to generate. (Barring a ridiculous disparity in numbers or missile pods.)

What the rear area BB did was up the requirements to conduct useful raids back there up above what the enemy could or would routinely commit. It's a role that hasn't gone away for most multi-system states - it's just got different ways to accomplish it now with modern LAC's, missile pods, FTL fire control, and MDM's.