munroburton wrote:IMO, the ultimate turning point, the 'shatterpoint' if you don't mind my using a SW EU concept, of the first war was First Hancock.
The consequences of that particular battle turning out exactly the way it did led to Honor's exile, the establishment of Grayson Sky Domes & Blackbird Yard and the GSN's substantial later contributions to the war effort.
If even a single Commodore had survived(especially Van Slyke), or if Captain Trinh's com systems weren't so damaged, then Young would have been executed before he had Paul Tankersley killed.
From a strictly military perspective, failing to lure Chin's dreadnoughts into range of Danislav's might have given Admiral Rollins enough firepower to fend off Parks' counter-attack, which was a resounding success with only three PNS wallers surviving to retreat. Or they might have inflicted more damage, allowing Adm Coatsworth's squadrons to take Hancock out.
In the meantime, Honor and HMS Nike were screening White Haven's battle squadrons on the advance to Trevor's Star, raiding around the flanks or picketing less critical systems. We know Caparelli later said he believed Honor would have advanced quickly in rank during this period.
But then when Citizen Admiral Thurston came over Yeltsin's hyper limit, Grayson might have been knocked out of the war there and then.
No exile also means no redemption required - Honor wouldn't have been sent to Silesia with HMS Wayfarer and the other Q-ships. Giscard's operation would have succeeded and Warnecke would hang onto Sidemore. That means no Sidemore Station. She also doesn't get to meet the Emperor's admiral cousin - both points vital in resolving the tensions in Silesia, as Tourville wouldn't have been sent out there without a Sidemore Station to attack. The trade cartels may have pulled out of Silesia as well, especially if the Hauptmans are killed.
That means someone else writes the WDB's final recommendations on the Medusa-class SD(P) and CLAC mix - to be fought tooth and nail by Hamish Alexander. With his active opposition to "Hemphill's fantasies" rather than dragging his First Space Lord and Chancellor of the Exchequer out to Grayson(already out of the war by now in this version of events) to see the new hardware in production, Operation Buttercup is delayed. Worse, Havenite intelligence was going to find out about that stuff eventually - would have been easier with loud arguments between Hamish and Sonja.
And of course, Honor wouldn't have been captured escorting some insignificant(in the grand scheme of things) convoy. Cordelia Ransom doesn't die over Cerberus and there isn't a great prison break. Quite possibly Shannon Foraker wouldn't have been pushed into becoming StateSec's worst nightmare early enough.
So... First Hancock turning out exactly the way it did probably shortened the war by a decade and won it, given the economic muscle Pierre's reforms gave a Haven with one or two hundred fewer systems for the second war.
Not only another very good post. But intensely thought provoking as well. A real eye-opener.
I've often wondered what other cause and effect failing to bait Chin's ships would have caused. Your thoughts about that is a bonus accompanying a very good post.
I think I have an addiction to turning points in wars. Perhaps it has to do with some sort of freudian thing regarding the moment the underdog buckles down, entrenches himself and offers a stiff upper lip to the idea of defeat. Exciting reading. See the Battle of Britain. The movie is great too.
It is the same as the feeling coursing through my veins each and every time I hear the turning point, sang with pride, in the Star Spangled Banner's most powerful line, IMO, of "and our flag was still there!"
All of the analysis here offers that same excitement. You guys are on the ball.
Do you really think Young would have been executed if the com systems or Van Slyke had not suffered damage or death, respectively? This is the only part of your post I question.
