Mil-tech bard wrote:I don't see more than 50% of the AEF transport dragons and 1/3 of the ground forces getting out.
You might be over estimating the survival rate of the AEF. The Sharonians have brought plenty of artillery, and unless they have no choice they will prioritze dragons with the lighter, easier to elevate, pieces. If enough transports are killed chan Geraith may be able to force a complete surrender of the trapped force. To do so he would have to convince Harshu (or whoever is in command at that point) that escape isn't possible.
Advancing through the Mahritha swamp will be a challenge for Sharona. It is one of the areas where Arcanan units would have a chance to slow the advance down, although I don't see the advance being stopped completely. The attempts to slow Sharonian units will also cost in terms of combat dragons and ground forces. Sharona will have to build up its logistics first.
As for Ransarans allowing the war to go forward, I suspect that the vast majority of them will be opposed to it on principle; unless Sharona makes the mistake of convincing them it is either fight or die. A good question is what the "minor", as yet undisclosed Arcanan groups, will decide about Sharon's. The smaller groups could add up if they all come out in favor of war, or against it.