Reflecting Upon RTH -- SPOILER THREAD

n7axw wrote:

n7axw wrote:
Could Sharona fort up to defend the swamp portal beyond the
possibility of losing it and just ignore Arcana from there?
I keep thinking about the logistical difficulties for
both sides and have a hard time seeing either side being
able to press an attack into the other side's home universe.

Don

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Forting up to defend the swamp portal is only a good strategy for Sharona if they can somehow be reasonably sure that Arcana won't attack them again. In the long term defending but not attacking is a losing strategy, if the other side wants to keep fighting.

Given what I know about Arcana I think they will attack again if they don't suffer enough as a result of this attack to convince them that any war with Sharona is going to be long and expensive.

From a military perspective Sharona has all the advantages as the front right now. Grabbing at least a few of Arcana's colony worlds gives them more defensive depth, gives them more sources of intelligence and gives them something to trade back to Arcana in peace talks.

I don't think Sharona staying at Hell's Gate makes sense.

Nicholas

brnicholas wrote:
Forting up to defend the swamp portal is only a good strategy for Sharona if they can somehow be reasonably sure that Arcana won't attack them again. In the long term defending but not attacking is a losing strategy, if the other side wants to keep fighting.

Given what I know about Arcana I think they will attack again if they don't suffer enough as a result of this attack to convince them that any war with Sharona is going to be long and expensive.

From a military perspective Sharona has all the advantages as the front right now. Grabbing at least a few of Arcana's colony worlds gives them more defensive depth, gives them more sources of intelligence and gives them something to trade back to Arcana in peace talks.

I don't think Sharona staying at Hell's Gate makes sense.

Nicholas

Untill they have a dockyard and the location of the next portal Sharona basically has no option but to fort up at the swamp portal. While they can send scouts further down the chain before the railhead gets there, their logistics cannot support heavy forces beyond that point. I would also expect some serious scouting of the other portals at Hell's gate (maybe they lead somewhere useful).

brnicholas wrote:Given what I know about Arcana I think they will attack again if they don't suffer enough as a result of this attack to convince them that any war with Sharona is going to be long and expensive.

I think that depends on which group of the Arcanan people is in charge of the war. There are currently four groups we have seen:

1. The honor bound Andaran mindset, typified by the Olderhans. If this group retains control of the military then the war should be short, and diplomatic solutions sorted out.

2. The Harshu, charge into combat to uphold your honor, mindset. If this group is big enough they could gain the initiative in dealing with Sharona, and the war could be prolonged because of it.

3. The Ransaran democracy is a third group, one which appears to have no interest in funding a war. Unless they believe their is no option but a fight to the death they will seek some kind of accommodation with Sharona.

4. Mythalans. They are rabidly xenophobic, and bigoted against any non-gifted individuals. The mere existence of an entire non-magical civilization would be an affront to their very beings. I don't see the Mythalan caste lords seeking peace with Sharona, unless they believe it will be their destruction if they don't. They may resort to mass destruction spells first.

Regardless the group most in charge of the war effort they may well fail to take Sharona seriously at first, then when they suffer large casualties for no gains they will have to change their minds. The capture or destruction of the AEF may bring about that change.

Hi Nicholas,

You might be right, in fact under normal circumstances, I would agree with your first paragraph.

But consider. Arcana has no weapons beyond hand grenades and arblasts that can actually attack through a portal. Dragons and gryphon can fly through, but Sharonan artillery and machine gun fire has already proven effective against the threat this represents. So a heavy concentration of infantry and artillery at the portal threshold ought to put a pretty firm stopper in the portal that the Arcanans cannot effectively attack. Given that the swamp portal is represented as being quite small, what I've suggested should be possible to implement. If true, Sharona should be able to hang on to the portal for as long as it wants.

I'm not convinced it's wise for Sharona to go beyond the portal and expose themselves to dragon attacks and magic spells. But implementation of what I've suggested wouldn't rule out a more offensive posture if that was decided upon. It would merely mean that whatever might happen as a consequence of such a strategy, the swamp portal will be held.

Don

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Astelon wrote:

brnicholas wrote:Given what I know about Arcana I think they will attack again if they don't suffer enough as a result of this attack to convince them that any war with Sharona is going to be long and expensive.

I think that depends on which group of the Arcanan people is in charge of the war. There are currently four groups we have seen:

1. The honor bound Andaran mindset, typified by the Olderhans. If this group retains control of the military then the war should be short, and diplomatic solutions sorted out.

2. The Harshu, charge into combat to uphold your honor, mindset. If this group is big enough they could gain the initiative in dealing with Sharona, and the war could be prolonged because of it.

3. The Ransaran democracy is a third group, one which appears to have no interest in funding a war. Unless they believe their is no option but a fight to the death they will seek some kind of accommodation with Sharona.

4. Mythalans. They are rabidly xenophobic, and bigoted against any non-gifted individuals. The mere existence of an entire non-magical civilization would be an affront to their very beings. I don't see the Mythalan caste lords seeking peace with Sharona, unless they believe it will be their destruction if they don't. They may resort to mass destruction spells first.

Regardless the group most in charge of the war effort they may well fail to take Sharona seriously at first, then when they suffer large casualties for no gains they will have to change their minds. The capture or destruction of the AEF may bring about that change.

Very nice analysis, Astelon. I would only comment that I doubt that the loss if Harshu's force will change much sinse it was really set up to fail from the start and eventually that will be generally understood.

Don

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n7axw wrote:Hi Nicholas,

You might be right, in fact under normal circumstances, I would agree with your first paragraph.

But consider. Arcana has no weapons beyond hand grenades and arblasts that can actually attack through a portal. Dragons and gryphon can fly through, but Sharonan artillery and machine gun fire has already proven effective against the threat this represents. So a heavy concentration of infantry and artillery at the portal threshold ought to put a pretty firm stopper in the portal that the Arcanans cannot effectively attack. Given that the swamp portal is represented as being quite small, what I've suggested should be possible to implement. If true, Sharona should be able to hang on to the portal for as long as it wants.

I'm not convinced it's wise for Sharona to go beyond the portal and expose themselves to dragon attacks and magic spells. But implementation of what I've suggested wouldn't rule out a more offensive posture if that was decided upon. It would merely mean that whatever might happen as a consequence of such a strategy, the swamp portal will be held.

Don

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Thank you! I agree completely that the Sharonans should fortify the Swamp portal as thoroughly as they can. I accept your judgement that the Arcanans lack the ability to break such fortifications, at this time. I also agree that Sharona needs to strenghen it supply lines and build up its forces before it can move further forward. However, I understand you to be advocating that Sharona adopt a long term policy of not taking the war to Arcana. I don't think that makes sense from a military or political perspective. (If that is not what you are advocating then I am sorry for misunderstanding you.)

As regards Astelon's analysis, my impression is that Andara is a highly militaristic society and that failure to show military competence will lead them to consider conquest and acceptable course of action. As for the Ransarans, they don't want to fund a war. OK, but would they be opposed to one if they thought it would be profitable? In my judgement, for Sharona not to push forward when they have all the advantages is far to likely to be seen as weakness to be a good policy.

Nicholas

brnicholas wrote:
Thank you! I agree completely that the Sharonans should fortify the Swamp portal as thoroughly as they can. I accept your judgement that the Arcanans lack the ability to break such fortifications, at this time. I also agree that Sharona needs to strenghen it supply lines and build up its forces before it can move further forward. However, I understand you to be advocating that Sharona adopt a long term policy of not taking the war to Arcana. I don't think that makes sense from a military or political perspective. (If that is not what you are advocating then I am sorry for misunderstanding you.)

As regards Astelon's analysis, my impression is that Andara is a highly militaristic society and that failure to show military competence will lead them to consider conquest and acceptable course of action. As for the Ransarans, they don't want to fund a war. OK, but would they be opposed to one if they thought it would be profitable? In my judgement, for Sharona not to push forward when they have all the advantages is far to likely to be seen as weakness to be a good policy.

Nicholas

You really owe me no apology. I am very skeptical of Sharona pushing beyond the swamp portal.

My first question would be why bother? What would be your concrete mission goal?

Secondly, would it to be possible to gain what Sharona really wants another way? Unless the Shakira take over Arcana in which the situation becomes impossible, you are going to have to talk to Arcana sooner or later. Why not as soon as possible? It is becoming more apparent to everyone that this war started due to a rogue element within Arcana's army. If it becomes possible to talk to someone out of Portalis, a better result might be achieved.

Thirdly what would be an exit strategy?

Finally, pushing beyond the swamp portal could be an altogether different experience than what has happened so far. All of a sudden you have supply lines to secure and the very real possibility of raiding by air units in your rear. Penetrate deeply enough and you could find yourself cut off with a powerful army in your rear with magic tricks in its bag not provided to Harshu.

To conclude it appears to me that as you advance deeper, the risk goes up as the benefit goes down.

Don

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n7axw wrote:Finally, pushing beyond the swamp portal could be an altogether different experience than what has happened so far. All of a sudden you have supply lines to secure and the very real possibility of raiding by air units in your rear. Penetrate deeply enough and you could find yourself cut off with a powerful army in your rear with magic tricks in its bag not provided to Harshu.

To conclude it appears to me that as you advance deeper, the risk goes up as the benefit goes down.

Don

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Don, The advance has it's own logic, and after Harshu's attack, you counter attack untill meeting significant resistance (or a logistic bottleneck).

Note here that Sharona must stop for at least months, and more likely years at the swamp portal to build the infrastructure that will allow them to advance any further. They will need to figure out where the next portal is, and while they are doing that, extend the rail to the swamp portal. We know, but I consider it unlikely that Sharona will know when they get to the swamp portal, that the next portal toward Arcana is on an island (Cuba IIRC), so they will need to build ships.

The time for all that to be built is time for diplomacy to be attempted, and possibly even work.

Depending on the universe path it is 4,000 or 7,000 for Sharonan rail roads from the Ft Salby universe to Hell's gate.

It took 4-months for the Sharonan's offensive to retake the swamp gate.

Terms of significance.

1. Sharona's TTE building 25 miles of railway tracks a day.

2. Short route -- 4,000 miles/25 miles a day = 160 days, or `5.3 months.

3. Long Route -- 7,000 miles/25 miles a day = 280 days, or about 9.3 months.

The long route was used for the offensive, so ~3,000 miles of track have been laid down in the long route universes.

IMO, by the time Harshu's Arcanian Expeditionary force is extracted. The Sharonan's will have about 75% of the long route covered in track distance (~7 months of construction) done and about 25% of the short route.

This is based upon Harshu needing to conduct three successive covering night time ground assaults to get most of the dragons through the Sharonan anti-aircraft defenses.

IOW, Harshu going to give Sharonan artillery and machine guns more pressing targets than dragons to shoot at.

Tough on the sacrificial Arcanian assault forces, but what are yah gonna do?

I also think that the last Arcanian sacrificial ground assault force breaking into and through Hell's Gate will see Harshu lead it personally with no expectation of survival on Harshu's part. That is when the heavy horse, griffon's, combat dragons and most Unicorns go extinct along with Harshu.

I don't see more than 50% of the AEF transport dragons and 1/3 of the ground forces getting out.

My WAG is essentially zero combat dragons, zero griffons, zero heavy horse, a small fraction of the Unicorns, and about 40% of the Arcanian infantry will make it out.

After all that, the logistical pause of waiting for the rest of the long and short route Sharonan rail lines will govern the next set of naval engagements.
.

Mil-tech bard wrote:Depending on the universe path it is 4,000 or 7,000 for Sharonan rail roads from the Ft Salby universe to Hell's gate.

It took 4-months for the Sharonan's offensive to retake the swamp gate.

Terms of significance.

1. Sharona's TTE building 25 miles of railway tracks a day.

2. Short route -- 4,000 miles/25 miles a day = 160 days, or `5.3 months.

3. Long Route -- 7,000 miles/25 miles a day = 280 days, or about 9.3 months.

The long route was used for the offensive, so ~3,000 miles of track have been laid down in the long route universes.

IMO, by the time Harshu's Arcanian Expeditionary force is extracted. The Sharonan's will have about 75% of the long route covered in track distance (~7 months of construction) done and about 25% of the short route.

This is based upon Harshu needing to conduct three successive covering night time ground assaults to get most of the dragons through the Sharonan anti-aircraft defenses.

IOW, Harshu going to give Sharonan artillery and machine guns more pressing targets than dragons to shoot at.

Tough on the sacrificial Arcanian assault forces, but what are yah gonna do?

I also think that the last Arcanian sacrificial ground assault force breaking into and through Hell's Gate will see Harshu lead it personally with no expectation of survival on Harshu's part. That is when the heavy horse, griffon's, combat dragons and most Unicorns go extinct along with Harshu.

I don't see more than 50% of the AEF transport dragons and 1/3 of the ground forces getting out.

My WAG is essentially zero combat dragons, zero griffons, zero heavy horse, a small fraction of the Unicorns, and about 40% of the Arcanian infantry will make it out.

After all that, the logistical pause of waiting for the rest of the long and short route Sharonan rail lines will govern the next set of naval engagements.
.

Humm... Interesting. Consider the possibility of a Sharonian advance into Harshu's rear. What do you think that would look like....

Don

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