Reflecting Upon RTH -- SPOILER THREAD

PeterZ wrote:If mul Gurthak is relying on a Mthylan force that is already organized and finalizing preparations to conduct war games when the general news of the war broke, the rest of the Union will let that force go to the front. I wouldn't be surprised if Mythal hasn't had contingency plans for using such a force as part of their coup plans. Now those troops will be used to reinforce the AEF.....er mul Gurthak now.

I just don't see mul Gurthak all but tossing away his only force. He sacrifices them to further his plans because he has additional troops to back him up. Back him up and show how much more effective than Andaran led troops the Mythal forces are.

That would scare the c**p out everybody else on Arcana, wouldn't it? I wonder if the Shakira realize how deeply isolated they are...

Don

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n7axw wrote:

PeterZ wrote:If mul Gurthak is relying on a Mthylan force that is already organized and finalizing preparations to conduct war games when the general news of the war broke, the rest of the Union will let that force go to the front. I wouldn't be surprised if Mythal hasn't had contingency plans for using such a force as part of their coup plans. Now those troops will be used to reinforce the AEF.....er mul Gurthak now.

I just don't see mul Gurthak all but tossing away his only force. He sacrifices them to further his plans because he has additional troops to back him up. Back him up and show how much more effective than Andaran led troops the Mythal forces are.

That would scare the c**p out everybody else on Arcana, wouldn't it? I wonder if the Shakira realize how deeply isolated they are...

Don

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Of course it would. Then again was not the pilot that attempted to stafe the protesters from such a Mythalan unit? I am sure that on worlds Mythal controls they have organized armed forces that police themselves just as they police Mythal themselves.

Mil-tech bard wrote:
Peter Z,

I don't think it is a matter of mobilization as much as it is Arcanian over reliance on Dragon Transport.

The distance from sliderways to the forward battle universe are so large that even if Arcania was on the ball, they just don't have the speed of communications to pull together a big enough force compared to Sharonan rail lines of communications.

From the "Stopping the Sharonan advance" thread --

Point 1 -- 24,000 miles to the nearest slider-head is many more to cover than 4,000 or 7,000 for Sharonan rail roads.

Point 2 -- Arcanian sliderway line building is compromised by the existence of dragons and levitation spells compared to the 25 mile a day rate for Sharonan TTE building crews.

Point 3 -- Arcanian sliderway lines require a lot of magically gifted people and magical infrastructure (magic power grids) to support them vice non-talented transport dragon pilots.

Point 4 -- The ability of Arcania to surge such magical infrastructure has not been shown by the text thus far. In fact, it has pointed the other way.

Point 5 -- Even if all of the above were taken care of, the Arcanian ability to surge economic/magical/military resources after decisions have been made are handicapped by its arthritic 100 mile an hour over long distances communications speed compared to Sharona.

This boils down to expense, Mtb. What you are saying is that the expense and the necessary dislocation required to send a large contingent of troops that far and the logistics support attendant with such a movement makes it politically more feasible to let Harshu settle things....and hope for the best. That sort of mindset will allow mul Gurthak and Mythal a great deal of leeway.

If Mythal will send troops and only charge back the Union some acceptable fee, Ransar might be persuaded to back Mythal's plan.

CanoeSage wrote:

Castenea wrote:
Yes, but how long were the British Empire's second stringers calling the shots once the Brits met organized, effective resistance? The counter arguments are French and Indian war where heavy reinforcements were on their way within a year (and with an ~3mo one way com lag), American Revolution, and the Boer War.

This is a point that has bothered me considerably. Not "Where are the heavy reinforcements?" Heck, has Arcana sent -anyone- forward to Hell's Gate?

The Duke of Garth Shoma has 'quietly dispatched a team' to investigate the rumors of misconduct.

That's it. We don't have explicit or implicit reference to -anything- else from Arcana. Sharona is dispatching troops strait from the home-world by the thousand. And we haven't heard anything from Arcana. No reinforcements, no senior officers, no fact finding committees. They should have crammed a hotshot Commander of 10,000 and representatives of the parliament into a slider and sent them forward as soon as they received word that hostile contact had been made and a full company had been punched out after making unprecedented contact with an alien civilization. Heck, we should have adventurers, entrepreneurs, and academics trying to rush to the front.

Instead, Arcana is quietly staying home, holding committee meetings, and anxiously waiting on news from the front. This is the biggest source of cognitive dissonance I have from the books.

Because Arcana has such arthritically slow communications, it perforce has to relay on the man on the spot to make the big calls before the central authorities can react.

Only when things get completely out of hand does Arcania get around to sending a Military Governor/trouble shooter to shoot the trouble.

My impression of Arcanian politics through Jasek's father has me thinking when it comes to the model for "Investigative teams." You would not be far wrong seeing something with the lethal investigative authority akin to a Jesuit "Father Visitor" of the Spanish Inquisition.

RFC has used this model in the Honorverse a lot.

And note Mul Gurthak has not requested reinforcements from Arcanian Military HQ. Those requests should have arrived ahead of Jasek. They did not. Mul Gerthak's first messages went to a Mythlan controlled civilian development agency outside the Andaran controlled military.

Mul Gurthak has been treating the Arcanian homeworld military authorities like mushrooms -- Feeding them s**t and keeping them in the dark.

That is why Jasek was so suspicious of Mul Gurthak not using him as a private back channel -- the way things are -really- done in Arcania -- before military-to-military combat kicked off.

PeterZ wrote:
This boils down to expense, Mtb. What you are saying is that the expense and the necessary dislocation required to send a large contingent of troops that far and the logistics support attendant with such a movement makes it politically more feasible to let Harshu settle things....and hope for the best. That sort of mindset will allow mul Gurthak and Mythal a great deal of leeway.

If Mythal will send troops and only charge back the Union some acceptable fee, Ransar might be persuaded to back Mythal's plan.

No, I think it is more of a communications and span of control issue.

Aerial and air-mobile ground forces Mul Gurthak, or any other Arcanian military governor, can react with quickly.

Installing tens of thousands of miles of heavy developmental infrastructure using a lot of magic requires the central (and extremely political-bureaucratic after 200-years) government of a the Arcaninian multi-universe state to decide.

Expecting a 200 year old bureaucracy to act quickly to anything is asking for a miracle.

Asking for a 200 year old bureaucracy with an arthritically slow communication system to both act quickly *and* spend lots of money is asking for dozens of miracles in precisely timed march formation.

The Arcanian multi-world state isn't scared and desperate enough to go there...yet

Post losing the entire AEF to Sharonan military forces may be a different matter.

I would think that the Ransarans would have to be nuts to trust the Mythalans with anything.

That was really the point of my previous post. I doubt that the Shakira know how deeply they are hated and distrusted throughout the rest of Arcana.

The whole idea of the Ramsarans and being willing to turn control of the military over to Mythal because some Andarans messed up is a Shakira dream akin to Fantasy Island. It is not gonna happen...

Don

n7axw wrote:I would think that the Ransarans would have to be nuts to trust the Mythalans with anything.

That was really the point of my previous post. I doubt that the Shakira know how deeply they are hated and distrusted throughout the rest of Arcana.

The whole idea of the Ramsarans and being willing to turn control of the military over to Mythal because some Andarans messed up is a Shakira dream akin to Fantasy Island. It is not gonna happen...

Don

No, Don. Not turn over control over the military, but allow Mythal to deal with the Sharona problem all by themselves. That is with a small subsidy that would be far less expensive than sending the Union Army. The Ransarans would let the Shakira deal with Sharona by themselves. Let those untrustworthy a$$hats shed their own blood while we Ransarans remain comfortable in our wealth far away from the front.

::a Naughty Moose replies::
Excuse me, Mil-tech, but
the East India Company's leaders and generals included
Clive, Hastings, Earl Cornwallis, and Arthur Wellesley.
None second string, unless we want to say that all
officers in the Army had to be second-string because
the entire first string was in the Navy.

In South Africa, Jameson was second string,
but White and Buller were not known to be that
until it was proven against them.

Naughty Moose

Mil-tech bard wrote:
This is not unprecedented in World History.

You just described the relationship between Great Britain
and the East India Company, as well as Great Britain WRT
Cecil Rhodes in Southern Africa, come to that.

Except in this case, the "Maxim guns" are on the other side.

Opps.

Sharona could, it seems to me.
That would mean giving up hope of further punishing Arcana,
and of rescuing Shaylar and Jathmar.
The Arcanans could then ignore the Sharonans just as easily,
by staying on their own side of that Amazon swamp.
Where's the story in that?

HTM

n7axw wrote:
Could Sharona fort up to defend the swamp portal beyond the
possibility of losing it and just ignore Arcana from there?
I keep thinking about the logistical difficulties for
both sides and have a hard time seeing either side being
able to press an attack into the other side's home universe.

Don

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Yes, Peter.
Of course, this grants that Mythal (read Shakira) would send
their Army 90,000 miles out through the Outworlds to hold
the Frontier and defeat the Others.

Premise: the Shakira care most about ruling Arcana,
and next most about New Arcana and other close worlds.
In that case, their Army goes only far enough to be out of
sight, no more than four or five worlds,
and then turns around and establishes a base to conquer
their Homeworld.

Alternately, the Shakira decamp en bloc to New Arcana,
or the next world out, seize that,
and establish their New Paradise their,
leaving everyone else to rot on Old Arcana
(except for necessary serfs).

Which Premise is predictable to Ransarans,
and to every other thinking Arcanan.

My guess is that any such offer will be refused.

HTM

PS 90,000 miles are very long for this kind of story.
I expect more Gates to open that shorten the distance.

PeterZ wrote:at bottom.

n7axw wrote:I would think that the Ransarans would have to be nuts to trust the Mythalans with anything.

That was really the point of my previous post. I doubt that the Shakira know how deeply they are hated and distrusted throughout the rest of Arcana.

The whole idea of the Ramsarans and being willing to turn control of the military over to Mythal because some Andarans messed up is a Shakira dream akin to Fantasy Island. It is not gonna happen...

Don

No, Don. Not turn over control over the military, but allow Mythal to deal with the Sharona problem all by themselves. That is with a small subsidy that would be far less expensive than sending the Union Army. The Ransarans would let the Shakira deal with Sharona by themselves. Let those untrustworthy a$$hats shed their own blood while we Ransarans remain comfortable in our wealth far away from the front.