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How do we fix the economy???

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Re: How do we fix the economy???
Post by Tenshinai   » Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:38 pm

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thinkstoomuch wrote:Once again showing selective memory of recent history.

TARP was what passed a democratic congress and signed by President Bush.

American Recovery and Reivestment was passed by democratic congress and sig ed by Obama in the late summer. Like he promised in his campaign.

How is that President Bush's write up?

Whatever,
T2M


And you don´t even notice what is weird when you write that? That Obama promised it in his CAMPAIGN? That the ARRA was effectively a done deal BEFORE he became president?
That its main points and structure were essentially settled by the influence of the Bush administration.

Anyway, no i wasn´t being selective, i was being imprecise. For the simple reason that GWB squandered ridiculous amounts of cash in a matter of less than a year(TARP was only one out of a bundle of butterfingered attempts at doing something) and laid the groundwork for the parts Obama had little choice but to accept.

Clear enough for you?
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Re: How do we fix the economy???
Post by thinkstoomuch   » Sun Sep 27, 2015 10:08 pm

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Tenshinai wrote:
...snip...

Clear enough for you?


No straight up selective. (Edit) Compounded by a lack of knowledge on how the US Federal Government actually works.(Edit? President Bush had no involvement. (Edit) A campaign promise to change the government's spending policy only works if it is different than what it is already doing. Talk about obvious, whatever.(edit)

Does the phrase "Shovel ready" strick any bells.

Also Congress had to pass both. At a time when Democrats controlled both houses. But sure its all President Bush's fault.


Unless of course it is the Congressional minority making everything impossible. Then the teflon president is absolved.

Interesting.
Yep,
T2M
-----------------------
Q: “How can something be worth more than it costs? Isn’t everything ‘worth’ what it costs?”
A: “No. That’s just the price. ...
Christopher Anvil from Top Line in "War Games"
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Re: How do we fix the economy???
Post by DDHvi   » Fri Nov 06, 2015 11:56 pm

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Tenshinai wrote:
biochem wrote:1. A miracle occurs and saves the day. It can happen. Something like fracking is discovered and does for the US economy what fracking has done for South Dakota's. Possible yes, probable no.


Extremely unlikely, simply because there isn´t really any one single thing that could put so much extra money into the economy that it would be enough.

USA already sold out too much of its industry, which in turn got rid of generations of know-how, making it very questionable if anything found, the benefits of which could be made to remain.



Also, the poverty pattern of spending (spend it right away on consumption) produces bad results no matter the income size. A miracle of increased income without a good change in the spending pattern may change the size of the "seed corn eating," but don't expect good long term results.

Edit; The idea that adding money to an economy equates with adding real wealth to said economy is the QE error IMHO. Endedit

I've found the "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" series of books by Robert Kayosawi helped me see the value of knowing my own spending pattern, and improving it. Although, as usual, it isn't possible for me to completely agree with this (or any) author :oops: :cry:

Not that this means I'm right instead of the author, it just means testing is needed.

Edit: Just read an article stating that one Dave Brat of Virginia (yes, he got teased by others when a kid ;) ) is the only congressman who is an economist. It would be nice for him to convince enough of his fellows that TANSTAAFL applies to overspending also. AFAIK, the Austrian school of economics has the only solid explanation of booms and busts. In the long run, the best way to test any idea is by comparing its predictions against reality: too bad so many dislike the idea of reality testing their favorite theory :P

Better test methods, please, not more interesting ideas :!:

People do not learn from history or the past. They always make the same mistakes, again and again. But there is a price for forgetting.


Many have said this in many ways. Wish I'd thought of it first :lol:

Douglas Hvistendahl
Retired technical nerd
ddhviste@drtel.net

Dumb mistakes are very irritating.
Smart mistakes go on forever
Unless you test your assumptions!
Endedit
Douglas Hvistendahl
Retired technical nerd
ddhviste@drtel.net

Dumb mistakes are very irritating.
Smart mistakes go on forever
Unless you test your assumptions!
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Re: How do we fix the economy???
Post by biochem   » Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:30 am

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Saw this in Forbes the other day. I think that the author may be on to something with diagnosing the problem. But lousy solutions again.

Note original is very long, edited here for length. Original can be found:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedennin ... 41ced68223

Problem

Republicans are ticked off at the government, President Obama, Obamacare, immigrants and Republican leaders who abandon conservative principles once in office. Even Donald Trump says “the system” is “broken.Democrats are angry too, but their list of villains is different: money in politics, Wall Street and the rich. “People feel like the system is rigged against them,” says Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren, “and here is the painful part, they’re right. The system is rigged.” Ordinary citizens can no longer get ahead just by hard work.

The fact that the two lists of villains have little in common indicates that the two groups are projecting their own political preoccupations onto the situation, rather than getting to the root cause of the problem.....

The fact that 60 years ago politicians were able to reach bipartisan agreements on budgets doesn’t mean those politicians were generically wiser and more public-minded than the politicians we have today. The principal difference is that back then, politicians were operating in a world of strong economic growth and widely shared prosperity. So of course it was much easier to find win-win compromises. The underlying reason why public institutions find it difficult to reach agreement today is that the economic pie is not growing fast enough to produce solutions.....

The same line of reasoning can be applied to the current lists of villains from the political parties. Would Republicans be so bothered by immigrants and the government handouts if prosperity was widespread and the economic future was bright? Would the Democrats be so upset about Wall Street and the rich if there were good jobs for all with growing salaries?...

Image

From 1949 through the 1970s, firms shared the gains from productivity improvements with the workers who produced them. Not surprisingly in this period, the economy functioned well and there was widespread prosperity. Then firms began acting very differently on a consistent basis over several decades. From 1980 onwards, firms didn’t share the benefits of productivity gains with their employees. Instead they kept the gains for themselves. Not surprisingly in this period, the incomes of most citizens stagnated...

The villain isn’t a set of individuals or institutions. It’s an idea. Companies embraced the notion that the very purpose of a corporation is to maximize shareholder value as reflected in the current stock price. The focus of these firms turned inward towards singlemindedly extracting value for the company’s shareholders, ahead of delivering value to customers. Executives were compensated in stock so that they would focus on the goal of increasing the stock price....

It also generated horrendous unintended financial, economic and social consequences: short-term decision-making, relentless cost cutting, staff reductions, squeezed operations, lower investment, crippled innovation, a dispirited workforce, reduced benefits and pensions for employees, mindless mergers, closed factories, off-shoring of production, increased debt, reduced ability to compete, declining rates of return on assets, rampant illegality in the financial sector, excessive financialization of the economy, and ultimately secular economic stagnation....

In effect, firms have hijacked the benefits of growth that the workers have produced. Naturally workers are angry when their incomes stagnate, even as the economy grows.

But it gets worse. When workers’ incomes stagnate, this starts affecting economic growth itself. As the workers don’t have more money to spend on products and services, firms perceive a lack of demand for new products and services. As a result, firms are increasingly disinclined to invest in new products and services. Real economic growth slows. The virtuous circle of growth is broken. Instead we enter a vicious cycle of decline.

Against this background, we can see why Republicans in the marketplace looking for good work might think that immigrants have stolen their jobs. Good jobs are hard to find because corporations have been keeping the benefits of productivity gains for themselves. Don’t blame immigrants. When firms are run this way, there simply aren’t enough good jobs to go around.

We can also see why it appears to Republicans that the government has gotten involved in too many handouts for people in need. It’s not because government has lost its way. It’s because private sector corporations aren’t sharing the benefits of the economy with ordinary citizens in the way that they used to, and as a result, many more citizens need more help from the government just to get by.

We can also understand why Conservative leaders might abandon their plans to do something about immigration and government handouts once they get into office. The proposed actions don’t gain traction, not only because they are unpopular: they don’t solve the underlying problem.

Democrats are somewhat closer to the truth with their particular list of villains: money in politics, Wall Street and the rich. Yes, it’s true: the system is rigged. We do live in a world in which corporations take the gains from productivity improvements, and so yes, the deck of cards is stacked against ordinary citizens.

Where Democrats go wrong is in thinking that the problem can be solved by “taxing the rich” or “printing money.” Merely shifting assets from the top 1% to the middle class won’t solve the problem of stagnating incomes. So long as private sector corporations keep retaining the benefits of productivity gains for their shareholders and their executives, the problem will continue. It can’t be solved by government action. Instead, we need to go deeper and change the way these private sector corporations are run...


And the woefully inadequate solutions.

Some organizations did not embrace “the dumbest idea in the world.” They took a different path. They pursued Peter Drucker’s insight of 1954 that the only valid purpose of an enterprise is to create a customer, and they adopted the management practices needed to make that happen—a kind of Copernican revolution in management. With this different goal and these different management practices, these organizations became radically more productive and are steadily putting traditionally managed firms out of business.....


If that were true the problem would have fixed itself already.

We as a society have come to tolerate that that extracting value from public corporations is given precedence to creating value; that financial gains from productivity improvements are not passed on to workers who generated them; that executives award themselves extraordinary bonuses for objectively poor performance; that many boards of directors have degenerated into a formalized mutual support system; that illegal stock price manipulation on a gargantuan scale is standard practice; and that economic stagnation and decline has come to be seen as, if not acceptable, inevitable. The fact that we as a society tolerate this situation means that we, too, have become a part of the problem.

Yes, the C-suite must stop giving priority to extracting value from firms. But boards of directors must also stop giving them incentives to do so. Business schools must stop teaching them how to do it. Institutional shareholders must end their complicity in what CEOs are doing. Regulators must go beyond searching for individual wrongdoers, and address overall systemic failure. Central bankers must recognize that they are indirectly funding the operation and open their eyes to the economic consequences of their actions. Pension funds and even small investors must end their support of the extraction of value. The leaders who should be fixing the system must end their complicity in malfeasance.


Sounds great but again even though presented as a solution, it's really a restatement of the problem. How to get all of these groups to fix it would be a solution, just stating that people need to change how they think isn't going to help.


So a couple of my thoughts on solutions.

1. Bring God back. The Bible stresses over and over again, that people have societal responsibilities in how they act and how they treat others.

"So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets."

2. Rework tax laws. Executives and board members are compensated in stock because that is how tax laws are written. They only pay 14% tax on stocks held >1yr rather than the 39% they would pay as ordinary income. A year isn't long. This incentivizes everyone at the top of a company to do absolutely anything possible to drive up the short term stock price. The average tenure of a Fortune 500 CEO is 5 years and the average tenure of all CEOs is 8 years. So they have every incentive to worry about the stock price now and no incentive to worry about the long term future of the company.

3. Get serious about white collar crime. Most of this problem isn't due to crime but the fact that people who do go that far only get a slap on the wrist encourages others to play in the gray area. Think of it as broken windows policing for the corporate set.

4. Block the megamergers. Megamergers only benefit the 0.1%. Consumers lose (less competition), employees lose (job consolidation), CEOs make millions. Can easily be done under current law (megamergers have to be approved by the Federal Trade Commission to ensure that they comply with antitrust laws, they have been way to generous in saying yes). Capitalism works best if there is a large number of competitors. Crony capitalism is the result of fewer.


This doesn't even begin to cover the required changes. But it's a start. Other thoughts?
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Re: How do we fix the economy???
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:32 am

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biochem wrote:So a couple of my thoughts on solutions.

1. Bring God back. The Bible stresses over and over again, that people have societal responsibilities in how they act and how they treat others.

"So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets."

The gold standard is no panacea. Economic growth under a gold standard would face artificial limits on growth based on the availability of gold. Assume a universal gold standard in today's economy. A local economy might face liquidity limits on their capacity to grow because hoarders of gold elsewhere face economic uncertainty or severe dislocation. Since currencies are limited to the gold standard, central banks could not increase liquidity without buying gold to back any increase in local liquidity. The cost to buy gold would place a ceiling on the ability of a local economy to grow that has nothing to do with local demand, but everything to do with the risk premium on liquidity set by a foreign nation.

Not saying the gold standard is universally bad, but it is not a panacea solution.
biochem wrote:2. Rework tax laws. Executives and board members are compensated in stock because that is how tax laws are written. They only pay 14% tax on stocks held >1yr rather than the 39% they would pay as ordinary income. A year isn't long. This incentivizes everyone at the top of a company to do absolutely anything possible to drive up the short term stock price. The average tenure of a Fortune 500 CEO is 5 years and the average tenure of all CEOs is 8 years. So they have every incentive to worry about the stock price now and no incentive to worry about the long term future of the company.

The compensation for growth is changing. There is a powerful move to shift stock and option grants to some targeted long term growth rate. The move is seen most often in LLCs and large partnerships. Executive compensation is set to pay out based on the trailing 3 and 5 year compounded growth rates. Payouts are still annual, but based on the prior 3 and/or 5 year compounded growth rates.

This will have the tendency to mitigate the slash and burn mentality.

biochem wrote:3. Get serious about white collar crime. Most of this problem isn't due to crime but the fact that people who do go that far only get a slap on the wrist encourages others to play in the gray area. Think of it as broken windows policing for the corporate set.

Gung Ho here.
biochem wrote:4. Block the megamergers. Megamergers only benefit the 0.1%. Consumers lose (less competition), employees lose (job consolidation), CEOs make millions. Can easily be done under current law (megamergers have to be approved by the Federal Trade Commission to ensure that they comply with antitrust laws, they have been way to generous in saying yes). Capitalism works best if there is a large number of competitors. Crony capitalism is the result of fewer.

Agreed in principle but the devil is in the details. better not to block mega mergers, but lower barriers to entry for all businesses in general. Lower the regulatory burdens that incent the largest businesses that can afford the extra hands. When there is no incentive to build massive firms only an idiot will merge beyond some sustainable size. The logistics make large companies very hard to manage. Baring other incentives companies will only grow until size becomes a competitive disadvantage.
biochem wrote:This doesn't even begin to cover the required changes. But it's a start. Other thoughts?


I am much more in the Teddy Rooseveldt camp. Establish competitive standards and have the government act as referees enforcing the rules, not playing the game AND enforcing the rules. The more government does, the more they both play the game and enforce rules. Too big to fail was an excuse for politicians to pocket the funds that were supposed to go increase liquidity. Subsidies for ethanol, agriculture and green initiatives in general simply makethe market place inefficient and only work as vote buying schemes for politicians.
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Re: How do we fix the economy???
Post by gcomeau   » Mon Feb 01, 2016 3:47 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
biochem wrote:So a couple of my thoughts on solutions.

1. Bring God back. The Bible stresses over and over again, that people have societal responsibilities in how they act and how they treat others.

"So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets."

The gold standard is no panacea.


I think you inserted an "L" there. ;)

Of course the God standard is even less a panacea than the gold standard, theocracies or religiously supported monarchies ruled the day through most of human history and the average person hardly had great economic prosperity and fair treatment from those in authority that has been striped from them in these more godless modern times. Quite the opposite.


PeterZ wrote:
biochem wrote:4. Block the megamergers. Megamergers only benefit the 0.1%. Consumers lose (less competition), employees lose (job consolidation), CEOs make millions. Can easily be done under current law (megamergers have to be approved by the Federal Trade Commission to ensure that they comply with antitrust laws, they have been way to generous in saying yes). Capitalism works best if there is a large number of competitors. Crony capitalism is the result of fewer.

Agreed in principle but the devil is in the details. better not to block mega mergers, but lower barriers to entry for all businesses in general. Lower the regulatory burdens that incent the largest businesses that can afford the extra hands.


That simply won't have any effect in some industries.

For example, semiconductor. The regulatory environment has little to nothing to do with barriers to entry into that space. The fact that modern fabs requires billions of dollars in equipment just to get up and running and then you need the expertise to actually run them has a lot more to do with it.


Other industries there's simply economies of scale to deal with. Some businesses do better when they're larger and that's just how it is. The little guys can't compete and regulations aren't responsible for that, but they can mitigate it when applied appropriately.
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Re: How do we fix the economy???
Post by gcomeau   » Mon Feb 01, 2016 3:53 pm

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biochem wrote:
From 1949 through the 1970s, firms shared the gains from productivity improvements with the workers who produced them. Not surprisingly in this period, the economy functioned well and there was widespread prosperity. Then firms began acting very differently on a consistent basis over several decades. From 1980 onwards, firms didn’t share the benefits of productivity gains with their employees. Instead they kept the gains for themselves. Not surprisingly in this period, the incomes of most citizens stagnated...


Also not surprisingly, this lines up exactly with Reagan's decision that what the country really needed was for the richest people to keep a lot more money when he slashed the upper income tax brackets to the bone... with the laughably ridiculous reasoning that they'd share the wealth downwards and everyone would benefit.


Surprise, they didn't share. They very predictably hoarded.
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Re: How do we fix the economy???
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Feb 01, 2016 6:01 pm

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gcomeau wrote:
biochem wrote:So a couple of my thoughts on solutions.

1. Bring God back. The Bible stresses over and over again, that people have societal responsibilities in how they act and how they treat others.

"So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets."



I think you inserted an "L" there. ;)

Of course the God standard is even less a panacea than the gold standard, theocracies or religiously supported monarchies ruled the day through most of human history and the average person hardly had great economic prosperity and fair treatment from those in authority that has been striped from them in these more godless modern times. Quite the opposite.




Indeed I misread. I would disagree with you here in how you interpret biochem's post. Biochem is NOT advocating theocracy. He is arguing for an objective morality governing behavior in business. In that I would agree.
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Re: How do we fix the economy???
Post by gcomeau   » Mon Feb 01, 2016 6:22 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
gcomeau wrote:I think you inserted an "L" there. ;)

Of course the God standard is even less a panacea than the gold standard, theocracies or religiously supported monarchies ruled the day through most of human history and the average person hardly had great economic prosperity and fair treatment from those in authority that has been striped from them in these more godless modern times. Quite the opposite.




Indeed I misread. I would disagree with you here in how you interpret biochem's post. Biochem is NOT advocating theocracy. He is arguing for an objective morality governing behavior in business. In that I would agree.


I would say he's arguing for a very specific theistic morality to do the governing... and that morality ruled the day for century upon century of human history (whether through theocracy or other means of influence) across the western world with nobody but a very few at the top of the food chain the better off for it.

A step back in the direction of the dark ages when all these problems were far far worse does not seem like the way towards a solution to those problems.
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Re: How do we fix the economy???
Post by Daryl   » Mon Feb 01, 2016 6:26 pm

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My personal experience has been that the businesses who openly espouse to be religious are the least ethical to deal with. A topic of conversation at a BBQ recently was that we all avoided businesses that advertised with the little fish symbol, after being caught before.
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