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Synopsis for At the Sign of Triumph

This fascinating series is a combination of historical seafaring, swashbuckling adventure, and high technological science-fiction. Join us in a discussion!
Re: Synopsis for At the Sign of Triumph
Post by HamsterDesTodes   » Sun Jan 24, 2016 9:29 pm

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Bluestrike2 wrote:
My point was that the people's belief isn't something to be respected for the command staff and whomever remained under the Temple. It never was. It's a tool, meant to manipulate and limit them. It doesn't matter that Maikel genuinely believes in God or that the Temple's leadership cares more about personal gain than godliness. All that matters is how those attitudes can be used in furtherance of Langhorne's plan. Maikel's piety is an active problem because it helps justify his schism; the Temple leadership's avarice and corruption are tools to be leveraged to the Church's benefit. Corruption can always be trimmed back a bit after they've won and Charis is a smoking crater.

Maikel and Charis are obstacles. That's it. They're pawns to be swept off the board, and little more. Pawns might have feelings and emotions, but to a person who has spent well over a century playing the part of a divine being--and eventually, you start to believe in the part you play day in and day out--it doesn't matter.

As for your last point, you're right. But my thinking was that if they had any respect for faith and piety in the first place, they wouldn't have gone along with Langhorne even after he put his plan into motion. They'd have lined Langhorne and his followers against a wall and shot him. Instead, they leveraged faith as a tool to manipulate with far more cynicism than any ruler in human history.

Of course, if that happened, it would have been a much different story, now wouldn't it?


Sorry but no, there you're plain wrong.
They did respect believe. Hell yes, did they ever. They wagered the survival of humanity on believe and believe alone. Its the believe_r_ they didnt respect.
Where you're also slightly off the mark is their goal. The command crew didnt want to merely manipulate people. If they did you would be correct, corrupt people are best.
But the command crew didnt want to manipulate people, they wanted to manipulate populations. Influence generations upon generations, even after they left.
Thats a HUGE difference, because corrupt people dont stay true to a goal, their aim changes in whatever direction is most convenient at the moment. And there're a lot of moments in a single millenium, let alone an infinite number of them.
For stability over generations and millenia, you need zealots, not hedonistic kleptomaniacs. People who cling to someting outside of themselves and are not only capable but willing to accept hardship in the name of whatever.
The Group of 4 is all about themselves and their own power, the vicarage isnt much better (and most of the "better" has probably fled or been killed) and I dont give the rest of the upper management much more credit.

No, the (upper) temple loyalists are throughouly flawed tools because he cant trust them. If somebody needs to be swept away, its the flawed tool.

But speaking of flawed, could you explain why Maikel and his followers would be flawed please? Except for the obvious - but secret - flaw of believing in the wrong thing, they seem to be perfect to me.
Willing to die for their believe and truly interested in serving the church instead of milking it. That's what an Angel would want after all, someone to follow his word even without supervision.
Yes, he may have to prune back some war emergencies like gunpowder, steam and above all the routine of granting exceptions just to name a few examples, but that's necessary for both sides after all so no glaring disatvantage for either. The difference comes afterwards, when he finished his playacting, he would be convinced that Maikel will follow Gods wishes even without the Angel looking over his shoulder (and he would be right of course, except that Maikel followes a different God).

If he were to achieve the same with the original Church, he would have to completely rebuilt everything and start from zero to do so. Nobody in power could be allowed to remain there, which basically validates the Church of Charis nearly as much as simply taking them over, but minus all the people from the CoC whom he couldnt use to rebuild the United Church if he fights the CoC first.

That he will end up with one version or another of a Reformed/United Church is a foregone conclusion, because no matter what he does, the Church of God Awaiting cannot be allowed to survive in its present state. Its simpy to untrustworthy.


Now, Im not saying that the Angel will wake up and proceed to take over the CoC. In fact, I heartily wish he wont, because that would be a terrible ending to the series I think. See my cliffhanger remark, and I truly detest cliffhangers.
But I could see how it works, and works rather well from the Angels PoV, especially if he's under a time constraint. Nearly no fighting to and way less rebuilding with way more help. Works brilliantly in fact.....until he discoveres that he built on quicksand that is, because somebody manipulated his believes instead of the other way around.
Even a monumental cliffhanger may be worth it to get a look on his face in that moment!

Thinking about it no, nothing is worth a cliffhanger with the waiting time we already have between books, let alone whatever we'll face between (sub)series.
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Re: Synopsis for At the Sign of Triumph
Post by Dauntless   » Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:28 am

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Kakai wrote:
Dauntless wrote:how did gunpowder get reinvented with the name gunpowder?

that was way before merlin awoke, yet it carries the same name as its earth predecessor.

at least some of merlin's things are getting new names.

Shan wei'd candles for matches
shan wei's foot stools for landmines
lewiscyte for dynamite

also muskets, rifles and some other things. ships and swords were in use from day 1 likely, so those get a pass but there are several inventions carrying their earth name that were not invented by merlin or his associates.


I'd say translation convention. Safehold English is already far removed from our English, and it's easier to just write "musket" than to ask the readers to remember that "buhmstyk" is pretty much the same thing as our musket.

Although it'd sure be funny to read the entire series with people firing "buhmstyks" and aiming "shutahs" :lol:


makes as much sense as anything else
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Re: Synopsis for At the Sign of Triumph
Post by Direwolf18   » Mon Jan 25, 2016 5:51 pm

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If one of the arch angels were to wake up, there is absolutely no way s/he wouldn't look around and figure out something WAS UP. Technology that took something like 300 years or so to develop on Old Earth sprung up in ten? While using the exact same name in some cases? Arabic numerals come strongly to mind as a dead giveaway tell.

So yea whoever woke up would definitely purge the Church of Charis along with the rest of it. Or would like to, I highly doubt the bombardment platform will be active whenever that happens. That being said, I don't think the current Church administration would enjoy the experience very much easier. They are horrendously corrupt, but some very stern damage control on said Archangels end could go a long way with snipping the whole reformation thing in the bud. A ruthless and thorough purge of the Vicarate, especially if done so with actual proof of their crimes, would not only knock the mid to lower tiers of the church in line, but show to all the people unhappy with what is going on, that things are well in hand.
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Re: Synopsis for At the Sign of Triumph
Post by Expert snuggler   » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:21 pm

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What if whatever wakes up has been deranged by spending too much time in cryo/VR/magnetic media/take your pick?

An insane archangel meeting Clyntahn would make for an interesting story line!
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Re: Synopsis for At the Sign of Triumph
Post by Direwolf18   » Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:00 pm

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There was repeated comments about only a madman would attempt cry for such a long period of time. What if someone by the name of Chiro was crazy enough to try it? And then when he wakes up he is bug crazy.

Although why he couldn't dip in and out of cryo every couple of hundred of years is beyond me. Seems to be a logical idea, sleep for a hundred or so, wake up for about a year, fix any loose ends, and back to sleep. You could repeat that process darn near indefinitely depending how short the cool down between cryo sleeps is.
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Re: Synopsis for At the Sign of Triumph
Post by lyonheart   » Tue Jan 26, 2016 2:43 am

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Hi Hamster,

Thanks for making me smile with your option #4. :D

While such a "deus ex machina" twist would definitely tickle RFC's devious funny bones [cackling madly while visualizing the pained reactions of his devout fans], ;) I don't think that's where he intends to go.

The 'thing in the basement' may be turned off, or Paityr killed or too injured to do what needs to be done, so the inner circle may need to recruit another Wylsyn, which may take years; or some other handicap that delays electrical experimentation, including concerns about the archangels' reappearance resetting everything, besides the vast problem of even beginning to conceive of electricity and the electromagnetic spectrum, especially when no non-inner circle Safeholdian has ever imagined such a thing in the first place.

Where do you start when no one knows where to begin in the first place?

[Granted RFC's approach will be fascinating.]

Secondly, how do you control potentially racially dangerous radio transmissions if huge numbers of independent inventors are desperately looking for an advantage in the war or wars to come?

Does the inner circle become the RT police, kidnapping all experimenters with the option to work secretly or be put to sleep?

When it comes, which may take generations, electric use will have to be controlled in such a fashion as to prevent dangerously premature radio transmissions, ie the inner circle will have to control them while providing the com network as an effective alternative; at least until Safehold is far more ready for the struggle ahead against the Gbabba, which will probably take centuries.

This implies a world government or an inner circle network that coordinates the whole world's technological advancement, probably across national and even religious lines. once religious tolerance becomes more common.

This period alone could be meaty ground for another whole series. ;)

Maybe that's what RFC has in mind. :lol:

L


HamsterDesTodes wrote:
n7axw wrote:*quote="HamsterDesTodes"*

How about option #4:
Ignorant of the existance of anything resembling an inner circle or secret brother/sisterhoods, the Thing wakes up, looks over the situation and declares the Church of Charis to be in the right, taking over the head of church position from Archbishop Maikel and demotes the entire continental vicarage (demotion may range from "keep your position but you're now subordinate to the United Church of Charis instead of sitting pretty in Zion" for the innocent bystanders if any to "demoted to corps").

That would open the gates for a true civil war down the road - namely when The Thing gets wind of either secret society - and would explain why every side starts with a nearly identical tech base.*quote*

While all things are possible, some things are a bit more likely than others. Option 4 strikes me as in the less likely category. Whatever angel or archangel created the Thing under the Temple would have created it in their own image and very little that we know about the angels and archangels would have provided formed the basis for a positive character reference.

Don

-


The decision doesnt have to be made for positive reasons. A nice and friendly personality works best of course, but "Nobody is allowed to abuse power but myself" could be a decent starting point as well, followed by a cost/benefit analysis of CoGA vs CoC reputation where Charis should win handily.
Also keep in mind that as long as whatever is below the temple got even partial access to recent (as in: last couple of centuries or somesuch) activities inside the temple, there can be no question that nobody in the temple is actually a believer, whereas a short observation of Maikel will show a deeply religious personality. Just as long as he doesnt know what exactly Maikel believes in (or better: doesnt believe in) the decision who's the more trustworthy would be easy.
Worked during the last war, didnt it? You know, the one that was won last week before I went to sleep.

Now, the seijin stories may be a n unsurpassable hurdle, unless the thing writes them off as exactly that: stories.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Synopsis for At the Sign of Triumph
Post by lyonheart   » Tue Jan 26, 2016 3:57 am

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Hi Louis R,

Kudos again for the excellent analysis.

How and when electricity develops on Safehold will be unique due to the required restrictions the inner circle will put in place.

I suspect around 20 years before the archangels 'return' isn't long enough to begin hinting to the right minded individuals the concepts they should begin to consider, especially as you point out, if the Holy Writ's hold hasn't been broken; especially if the OBS hasn't been turned off because Paityr couldn't get into the temple again.

Or while the OBS is turned off or controlled, they discover the TitB's timer can't be changed, so they have to wait the ~16 years anyway.

Making steam power universal may be the inner circle's Plan A if the TitB is turned off or Plan B if it isn't, so if there are any live returning archangels, the whole planet has been effectively corrupted, and reprogramming is impossible [there aren't any adult NEAT's anymore], so the OBS option will be largely negated if OWL and Nahrmahn haven't developed effective counters by then.

Your point about the OBS's limitations against the fallen are good, but may have been due the limits of the initial system, although from Khody's journal the fallen were very dispersed among the faithful, far more than the current situation when the EoC could be easily targeted along withe eastern Haven, while the strike against the SSK possibly indicates improved targeting capability.

A point not yet asked that I recall, is the effect of the age of any returning archangels.

Given a society with ~300 year lifetimes, how long did it take to reach high enough professionally to be chosen for the Operation Ark staff [at least a century?], which with the roughly two centuries on Safehold, they won't have many years left at best if they do come back and choose to rule; will Schueler be one of them, or was he killed after leaving Safehold aboard the spaceship before they went into cryo?

If the OBS is turned off or neutralized, OWL may be able to begin space mining to replenish his various resource requirements, possibly building space craft to search for the archangels before their expected return.

Given the reactionaries obvious response to any negotiating with the heretics, I'm surprised there will be any kind of hiatus in the religious wars, especially the personal survival of any of the Go3/4 or vicars that treat withe the allies in violation of the jihad, regardless of blaming it all on the false and corrupt Clyntahn.

Then there's the liberation struggle of all the serfs, which ought generate its own hoard of civil wars over the next 16+ years.

So I doubt RFC is going to begin the next story arc by suggesting Safehold was peaceful since the end of AtSoT.

The allies may not have been threatened with extinction because that was beyond the remaining CoGA powers capabilities until the next book begins might be a more likely expectation.

How RFC deals with all these convoluted enigmas will be "fascinating".

I'm already eager to devour it, and its going take a couple years before I can?

RFC loves to torture us, doesn't he? ;)

L


Louis R wrote:The thing that so much of the discussion so far founders on is that the ban on electricity is not optional - electrical and electronic tech is off the table until the Writ entire is overturned.

Himself has told us more than once that Langhorne & Co. had no intention of letting _that_ slip through any cracks, so they have provided a complete description of electricity in all it's manifestations and explicitly forbidden any manipulation of it. And the two natural phenomena that might have called that into question were co-opted as divine reminders of Langhorne's status and power. Where so much of the Proscriptions comes down to a judgement call - is such-and-so within the intent of the text - that has proven very subject to manipulation, the only option for Clyntahn or Charis on this matter is to follow the Writ or defy it. Clyntahn and the Inquisition won't do that. Charis _can't_ do that.

Not yet. Whether they could even do it in less that 20 years is doubtful. So the Empire won't be using diesel-electric submarines to sink the armadas launched against it in the Thing's name. They won't even have electric flashlights to find their way through the sewers of Tellesberg, if it comes to that. As others, I see 3 options: the Thing is neutralised without ever activating, in which case the Nimues revert to Plan A [and the Big War is postponed for a couple of generations]; the Thing activates, evaluates the situation, and throws in the towel, in which case it will probably be possible to undermine the Writ without triggering a Big War at all [only likely if the Thing is Schueler, or created by him, and he really is the Kinder, Gentler model]; the Thing activates, evaluates the situation - and hurls its hordes at Charis' throat. And in that scenario, since abject failure isn't an option [this is Himself who's writing the story], we will find that the time passed has been enough that when the Inner Circle comes into the open in defiance of the Thing, they can bring a solid core of the Empire's population, and probably Siddarmark's, along with them. And the big surprise, for them at least, will be how many people _outside_ those limits also come down on their side. [and the Big War may end with the rivers of Safehold running red]

And the fun thing, now that I think about it, is that it may not matter if the Thing has control of the Rakurai system. Open defiance of the Thing and the Writ makes the position of the Empire crystal clear already, so Crowbars from Heaven can't make much of a difference theologically or politically. And militarily, the system may not be as much use as has been assumed. Why, since they had access to it - and were pretty clearly using it - did the Archangels have to defeat the 'Fallen' on the ground? I can't see Chihiro hesitating over collateral damage; if he had the area-denial capability shown by the Alexandria strike, any other enclave not completely under his control would have been flattened, any enemy forces marching to meet his would be toast, and he'd never have needed the Seijin in the first place. So what if he wipes out half the human race? As long as he controls the other half, he has the technology, and he can rebuild them. The reason for not doing that _could_ lie with Schueler, but only if he had exclusive control or an undefeatable veto over the Rakurai's use as a saturation weapon [at least]. Otherwise, and far more likely, in must lie in limitations of the system itself. So, while the OBS can certainly make victory extremely painful for our heros, it doesn't necessarily preclude it. [And Nimue's original evaluation of its capabilities in OAR was, as it should have been, a worst-case estimate, based on the assumption that it was the same system that destroyed Alexandria. That, apparently, is not the case.]


lyonheart wrote:Hi Cnrd22,

Was RFC's talk at HonorCon or another Con?

Any further details or hints [date etc] would be most helpful to all of us who weren't there.

How much or your speculation is based on what he said, and what he hinted, which isn't always the same thing.

20 years would might put it beyond the less than 18 years when the "thing in the basement" supposedly wakes up.

This implies Paityr never got into the temple at the end of this war, which is quite a surprise, given how little the CoGA would then have left to stop him.

This in turn means the allies are still stuck without electricity for ~20 years; which I find hard to believe, since RFC has about exhausted how far they can go on just steam, which may be why we have the 20 year break as the allies catch up to all the ramifications of the steam technology they do have, ie extensive double tracked railroad networks throughout Siddarmark and the empire, besides steamships and steam powered factories, etc.

It's quite possible that by that time the faithful CoGA nations may have caught up on most of the EoC's technological lead [or think they have], again possibly putting the empire at risk, although the empire's population may have doubled in those ~20 years.

A 20 year cold war R&D competition might do wonders in forcing the remaining CoGA nations to modernize despite their preferences, albeit with the potential casualties of the next religious war making this one's pathetic by comparison.

On the gripping hand, Paityr and Merlin may indeed enter the temple and turn the OBS controls off, so the allies have almost 20 years to develop electricity in its various aspects before the next war after AtSoT, which knowing what they need and can do, leaves the CoGA remnant's R&D in the dust.

While we've posted about fluidic computers and other possible non-electric technologies, I think there's an effective limit that Charis is close to reaching, given its tech limits, long before the ~18 years are up.

The downside is how much of a story will there be when the nominal bad guys, the CoGA faithful are so outclassed?

Granted our favorite celery courier can make that conflict epic and fascinating NTM poignant, but just how long is the next story arc supposed to be?

The problem of Duchairn being quickly killed by inquisitors and all the rest of the conservatives for the heresy of even treating with them, let alone honoring the agreements made to name just one of Duchairn's obvious crimes, would put the 20 year war hiatus immediately at risk among other direct results.

So we are all waiting almost breathlessly for the first snippets, possibly starting in March. ;)

L


*quote="cnrd22"*

I wouldn't disagree about book 8, but DW stated fairly firmly in his latest talk in the fall that the next Safehold book (the one we now know as At the Sign of Triumph) is the last in the arc and in that context I think the synopsis kind of confirms it; in another thread I mentioned that I think the endgame for the arc will be negotiated peace with (a sincere) Duchairn after Aivah sacrifices herself to take out Clyntahn, while in the background the future bad guys of the next arc start plotting on how to take down Charis in a few decades

Anyway let's hope the book is not a mirage and we will get it in October as that would be a bit surprising for me but awesome
*quote*
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Synopsis for At the Sign of Triumph
Post by lyonheart   » Tue Jan 26, 2016 4:33 am

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Hi Cnrd22,

The reference to the next book is that both sides will have steam power and breech loading artillery etc, so it will be intriguing as RFC's alternative to the early industrial age-WWI wars, without involving electricity.

Obviously the OBS isn't involved, which implies the returning archangels are somehow not in control.

Steam power without batteries didn't work too well for submarines, though a couple experiments were interesting; so their use in a major way initially that surprises the inner circle seems slight at the moment, so the ICN's destruction won't be immediately total though probably painful particularly locally around Haven and Howard.

With the OBS threat largely contained, what limits will the PICA's still have, ie what are their public powers when it comes to using laser guided bombs etc?

RFC doesn't write military porn as he reiterated in the talk, so their major use by the PICA's is out.

If steam and diesel powered vehicles are in use, while aircraft aren't available for strategic attacks on the home industries, it could be a very long, horrible, costly, grinding war whose only saving grace might be the utter destruction of the pre-existing CoGA societies and absolute abolishing of slavery and serfdom, including RFC's effective alternative to Reconstruction.

That would be worth reading by itself.

Whether it will include destruction of the automatic belief in the temple and the vicarate's sanctity NTM the Holy Writ's inviolability is another question.

Hopefully the answer will be yes, but how many books that will take appears to be something RFC isn't sure about.

L


cnrd22 wrote:
lyonheart wrote:Hi Cnrd22,

Was RFC's talk at HonorCon or another Con?

Any further details or hints [date etc] would be most helpful to all of us who weren't there.

How much or your speculation is based on what he said, and what he hinted, which isn't always the same thing.


The talk was the one mentioned in the post above this (National Book Festival - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=P ... lVV1og9BMt - DW is #49) and I watched all of it carefully, replaying parts that had concrete stuff - the Safehold information included only the fact that this next book after HFQ is the last in the arc - at the time HFQ wasn't yet out as the talk was on September 5, 2015 -

The speculation is all mine and obviously can be very wrong, but the fact that the book we now know as AtSoT is the last in the arc seems fairly certain.

The one thing that worries me somewhat is that the new Honorverse novel is rumored for the same period (fall 2016) and I would really like some inside info that this book (AtSoF) actually exists as of now - I expect Tor wouldn't have included it in the catalog otherwise, but still
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Synopsis for At the Sign of Triumph
Post by MadAmos   » Tue Jan 26, 2016 7:32 pm

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There's a transcript of the talk RFC gave.

http://stream.media.loc.gov/webcasts/ca ... dweber.txt
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Re: Synopsis for At the Sign of Triumph
Post by DDHvi   » Tue Jan 26, 2016 11:36 pm

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lyonheart wrote:Hi Cnrd22,

snip

Steam power without batteries didn't work too well for submarines, though a couple experiments were interesting; so their use in a major way initially that surprises the inner circle seems slight at the moment, so the ICN's destruction won't be immediately total though probably painful particularly locally around Haven and Howard.

snip



I may have read about one of those experiments. Stirling engine power was used with LOX both supplying the oxidizer and increasing efficiency by providing a better cold sink. They were able to have much increased running times. However, introducing the Stirling in this way would be producing a totally new tech system, not just the engine - I can't see the COGN doing any such thing.
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