Synopsis for At the Sign of Triumph

Expert snuggler wrote:Rayno might have the imagination to ask "How can we turn Shan-Wei's arts against her?".

Electricity would have an immediate valuable application in field telephones. Even with embryonic electrical tech you can build spark-gap transmitters with some military utility. Or at least they would have military utility if they didn't have the side effect of summoning rocks from above.

We know that. He doesn't--he's stuck in the basic research phase and the war will be over before that would progress to something useful.

John Prigent wrote:I keep wondering about vacuum welding. It has been claimed/stated, somewhere that I stumbled across but can't now find, that long periods in space tend to weld metal moving parts together so that they no longer function. So I ask: is this true, and if so is it why the ISS needs so many maintenance spacewalks? And leading on from that, why is Merlin so convinced that it hasn't happened to the dreaded bombardment station?
Cheers
John

Vacuum welding is a very real effect but can be handled by the proper choice of materials.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:...Three is that the sensors tied into the system inform an entity such as an AI, probably under the Temple, which then has to undergo a decision process about how to respond and then give a command.

My own hunch is probably no. 3.

Why would the AI running the detection algorithms need to defer to a ground-based (and therefore more vulnerable) AI?

Theoreticly it wouldn't. But visualise the system under human control from the basement of the Temple, or as has been conjectured, from "Dawn Star" in which case tha AI simply takes over the task from its human handlers. My guess would be the Temple basement since we have no textev that Dawn Star hasn't been dropped into the sun.

Don

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Hi Cnrd22,

Was RFC's talk at HonorCon or another Con?

Any further details or hints [date etc] would be most helpful to all of us who weren't there.

How much or your speculation is based on what he said, and what he hinted, which isn't always the same thing.

20 years would might put it beyond the less than 18 years when the "thing in the basement" supposedly wakes up.

This implies Paityr never got into the temple at the end of this war, which is quite a surprise, given how little the CoGA would then have left to stop him.

This in turn means the allies are still stuck without electricity for ~20 years; which I find hard to believe, since RFC has about exhausted how far they can go on just steam, which may be why we have the 20 year break as the allies catch up to all the ramifications of the steam technology they do have, ie extensive double tracked railroad networks throughout Siddarmark and the empire, besides steamships and steam powered factories, etc.

It's quite possible that by that time the faithful CoGA nations may have caught up on most of the EoC's technological lead [or think they have], again possibly putting the empire at risk, although the empire's population may have doubled in those ~20 years.

A 20 year cold war R&D competition might do wonders in forcing the remaining CoGA nations to modernize despite their preferences, albeit with the potential casualties of the next religious war making this one's pathetic by comparison.

On the gripping hand, Paityr and Merlin may indeed enter the temple and turn the OBS controls off, so the allies have almost 20 years to develop electricity in its various aspects before the next war after AtSoT, which knowing what they need and can do, leaves the CoGA remnant's R&D in the dust.

While we've posted about fluidic computers and other possible non-electric technologies, I think there's an effective limit that Charis is close to reaching, given its tech limits, long before the ~18 years are up.

The downside is how much of a story will there be when the nominal bad guys, the CoGA faithful are so outclassed?

Granted our favorite celery courier can make that conflict epic and fascinating NTM poignant, but just how long is the next story arc supposed to be?

The problem of Duchairn being quickly killed by inquisitors and all the rest of the conservatives for the heresy of even treating with them, let alone honoring the agreements made to name just one of Duchairn's obvious crimes, would put the 20 year war hiatus immediately at risk among other direct results.

So we are all waiting almost breathlessly for the first snippets, possibly starting in March.

L

cnrd22 wrote:

Nick wrote:*quote="cnrd22"*
The synopsis clearly indicates this is the last book of the arc as we already suspected based on DW's recent comments*quote*

I'd say that the synopsis suggests that this is the last book of the arc. It's been my impression that RFC will let people run with assumptions and enjoy the surprise when they turn out to be incorrect. It's not like he's setting out to mislead us (heaven forbid!), but he's not going to pass up the opportunity to have some fun.

Although I'm excited to see how this all gets wrapped up, HFQ didn't feel like the penultimate book to me. I'm thinking that before we get to that final showdown we'll see our heroes encounter what appears to be an insurmountable obstacle, such as whatever lies beneath the temple going active. Maybe that all happens in a single book, but I wouldn't put it past our favorite author to end a book named "At the Sign of Triumph" with triumph having disappeared from sight. (I'll be quite happy to be proven wrong, which admittedly happens more often than not.)

I wouldn't disagree about book 8, but DW stated fairly firmly in his latest talk in the fall that the next Safehold book (the one we now know as At the Sign of Triumph) is the last in the arc and in that context I think the synopsis kind of confirms it; in another thread I mentioned that I think the endgame for the arc will be negotiated peace with (a sincere) Duchairn after Aivah sacrifices herself to take out Clyntahn, while in the background the future bad guys of the next arc start plotting on how to take down Charis in a few decades

Anyway let's hope the book is not a mirage and we will get it in October as that would be a bit surprising for me but awesome

lyonheart wrote:Hi Cnrd22,

Was RFC's talk at HonorCon or another Con?

Any further details or hints [date etc] would be most helpful to all of us who weren't there.

How much or your speculation is based on what he said, and what he hinted, which isn't always the same thing.

It was in another thread - see below

dobriennm wrote:David Weber's 2015 National Book Festival talk is now up at

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=P ... lVV1og9BMt



This talk was mentioned by someone else on this forum and I wasn't sure anyone had posted that it was available.

It talks a lot about the Honor Harrington series, but also mentions the Safehold series, in particular, how there is one more book after HFQ to complete the present story arc. It also mentions that after the 20 year "gap" to the next Safehold story arc, everyone will have steam powered economies with the implication that the fight will be harder/bloodier[MY interpretation].

It's about 45 minutes, but for those of us who haven't managed to get to one of the Cons to see David, it's interesting and informative to watch.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Cnrd22,

Was RFC's talk at HonorCon or another Con?

Any further details or hints [date etc] would be most helpful to all of us who weren't there.

How much or your speculation is based on what he said, and what he hinted, which isn't always the same thing.

The talk was the one mentioned in the post above this (National Book Festival - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=P ... lVV1og9BMt - DW is #49) and I watched all of it carefully, replaying parts that had concrete stuff - the Safehold information included only the fact that this next book after HFQ is the last in the arc - at the time HFQ wasn't yet out as the talk was on September 5, 2015 -

The speculation is all mine and obviously can be very wrong, but the fact that the book we now know as AtSoT is the last in the arc seems fairly certain.

The one thing that worries me somewhat is that the new Honorverse novel is rumored for the same period (fall 2016) and I would really like some inside info that this book (AtSoF) actually exists as of now - I expect Tor wouldn't have included it in the catalog otherwise, but still

The thing that so much of the discussion so far founders on is that the ban on electricity is not optional - electrical and electronic tech is off the table until the Writ entire is overturned.

Himself has told us more than once that Langhorne & Co. had no intention of letting _that_ slip through any cracks, so they have provided a complete description of electricity in all it's manifestations and explicitly forbidden any manipulation of it. And the two natural phenomena that might have called that into question were co-opted as divine reminders of Langhorne's status and power. Where so much of the Proscriptions comes down to a judgement call - is such-and-so within the intent of the text - that has proven very subject to manipulation, the only option for Clyntahn or Charis on this matter is to follow the Writ or defy it. Clyntahn and the Inquisition won't do that. Charis _can't_ do that.

Not yet. Whether they could even do it in less that 20 years is doubtful. So the Empire won't be using diesel-electric submarines to sink the armadas launched against it in the Thing's name. They won't even have electric flashlights to find their way through the sewers of Tellesberg, if it comes to that. As others, I see 3 options: the Thing is neutralised without ever activating, in which case the Nimues revert to Plan A [and the Big War is postponed for a couple of generations]; the Thing activates, evaluates the situation, and throws in the towel, in which case it will probably be possible to undermine the Writ without triggering a Big War at all [only likely if the Thing is Schueler, or created by him, and he really is the Kinder, Gentler model]; the Thing activates, evaluates the situation - and hurls its hordes at Charis' throat. And in that scenario, since abject failure isn't an option [this is Himself who's writing the story], we will find that the time passed has been enough that when the Inner Circle comes into the open in defiance of the Thing, they can bring a solid core of the Empire's population, and probably Siddarmark's, along with them. And the big surprise, for them at least, will be how many people _outside_ those limits also come down on their side. [and the Big War may end with the rivers of Safehold running red]

And the fun thing, now that I think about it, is that it may not matter if the Thing has control of the Rakurai system. Open defiance of the Thing and the Writ makes the position of the Empire crystal clear already, so Crowbars from Heaven can't make much of a difference theologically or politically. And militarily, the system may not be as much use as has been assumed. Why, since they had access to it - and were pretty clearly using it - did the Archangels have to defeat the 'Fallen' on the ground? I can't see Chihiro hesitating over collateral damage; if he had the area-denial capability shown by the Alexandria strike, any other enclave not completely under his control would have been flattened, any enemy forces marching to meet his would be toast, and he'd never have needed the Seijin in the first place. So what if he wipes out half the human race? As long as he controls the other half, he has the technology, and he can rebuild them. The reason for not doing that _could_ lie with Schueler, but only if he had exclusive control or an undefeatable veto over the Rakurai's use as a saturation weapon [at least]. Otherwise, and far more likely, in must lie in limitations of the system itself. So, while the OBS can certainly make victory extremely painful for our heros, it doesn't necessarily preclude it. [And Nimue's original evaluation of its capabilities in OAR was, as it should have been, a worst-case estimate, based on the assumption that it was the same system that destroyed Alexandria. That, apparently, is not the case.]

lyonheart wrote:Hi Cnrd22,

Was RFC's talk at HonorCon or another Con?

Any further details or hints [date etc] would be most helpful to all of us who weren't there.

How much or your speculation is based on what he said, and what he hinted, which isn't always the same thing.

20 years would might put it beyond the less than 18 years when the "thing in the basement" supposedly wakes up.

This implies Paityr never got into the temple at the end of this war, which is quite a surprise, given how little the CoGA would then have left to stop him.

This in turn means the allies are still stuck without electricity for ~20 years; which I find hard to believe, since RFC has about exhausted how far they can go on just steam, which may be why we have the 20 year break as the allies catch up to all the ramifications of the steam technology they do have, ie extensive double tracked railroad networks throughout Siddarmark and the empire, besides steamships and steam powered factories, etc.

It's quite possible that by that time the faithful CoGA nations may have caught up on most of the EoC's technological lead [or think they have], again possibly putting the empire at risk, although the empire's population may have doubled in those ~20 years.

A 20 year cold war R&D competition might do wonders in forcing the remaining CoGA nations to modernize despite their preferences, albeit with the potential casualties of the next religious war making this one's pathetic by comparison.

On the gripping hand, Paityr and Merlin may indeed enter the temple and turn the OBS controls off, so the allies have almost 20 years to develop electricity in its various aspects before the next war after AtSoT, which knowing what they need and can do, leaves the CoGA remnant's R&D in the dust.

While we've posted about fluidic computers and other possible non-electric technologies, I think there's an effective limit that Charis is close to reaching, given its tech limits, long before the ~18 years are up.

The downside is how much of a story will there be when the nominal bad guys, the CoGA faithful are so outclassed?

Granted our favorite celery courier can make that conflict epic and fascinating NTM poignant, but just how long is the next story arc supposed to be?

The problem of Duchairn being quickly killed by inquisitors and all the rest of the conservatives for the heresy of even treating with them, let alone honoring the agreements made to name just one of Duchairn's obvious crimes, would put the 20 year war hiatus immediately at risk among other direct results.

So we are all waiting almost breathlessly for the first snippets, possibly starting in March.

L

cnrd22 wrote:
I wouldn't disagree about book 8, but DW stated fairly firmly in his latest talk in the fall that the next Safehold book (the one we now know as At the Sign of Triumph) is the last in the arc and in that context I think the synopsis kind of confirms it; in another thread I mentioned that I think the endgame for the arc will be negotiated peace with (a sincere) Duchairn after Aivah sacrifices herself to take out Clyntahn, while in the background the future bad guys of the next arc start plotting on how to take down Charis in a few decades

Anyway let's hope the book is not a mirage and we will get it in October as that would be a bit surprising for me but awesome

Louis R wrote:The thing that so much of the discussion so far founders on is that the ban on electricity is not optional - electrical and electronic tech is off the table until the Writ entire is overturned.

Himself has told us more than once that Langhorne & Co. had no intention of letting _that_ slip through any cracks, so they have provided a complete description of electricity in all it's manifestations and explicitly forbidden any manipulation of it. And the two natural phenomena that might have called that into question were co-opted as divine reminders of Langhorne's status and power. Where so much of the Proscriptions comes down to a judgement call - is such-and-so within the intent of the text - that has proven very subject to manipulation, the only option for Clyntahn or Charis on this matter is to follow the Writ or defy it. Clyntahn and the Inquisition won't do that. Charis _can't_ do that.

Not yet. Whether they could even do it in less that 20 years is doubtful. So the Empire won't be using diesel-electric submarines to sink the armadas launched against it in the Thing's name. They won't even have electric flashlights to find their way through the sewers of Tellesberg, if it comes to that. As others, I see 3 options: the Thing is neutralised without ever activating, in which case the Nimues revert to Plan A [and the Big War is postponed for a couple of generations]; the Thing activates, evaluates the situation, and throws in the towel, in which case it will probably be possible to undermine the Writ without triggering a Big War at all [only likely if the Thing is Schueler, or created by him, and he really is the Kinder, Gentler model]; the Thing activates, evaluates the situation - and hurls its hordes at Charis' throat. And in that scenario, since abject failure isn't an option [this is Himself who's writing the story], we will find that the time passed has been enough that when the Inner Circle comes into the open in defiance of the Thing, they can bring a solid core of the Empire's population, and probably Siddarmark's, along with them. And the big surprise, for them at least, will be how many people _outside_ those limits also come down on their side. [and the Big War may end with the rivers of Safehold running red]

How about option #4:
Ignorant of the existance of anything resembling an inner circle or secret brother/sisterhoods, the Thing wakes up, looks over the situation and declares the Church of Charis to be in the right, taking over the head of church position from Archbishop Maikel and demotes the entire continental vicarage (demotion may range from "keep your position but you're now subordinate to the United Church of Charis instead of sitting pretty in Zion" for the innocent bystanders if any to "demoted to corps").

That would open the gates for a true civil war down the road - namely when The Thing gets wind of either secret society - and would explain why every side starts with a nearly identical tech base.

HamsterDesTodes wrote:

Louis R wrote:The thing that so much of the discussion so far founders on is that the ban on electricity is not optional - electrical and electronic tech is off the table until the Writ entire is overturned.

Himself has told us more than once that Langhorne & Co. had no intention of letting _that_ slip through any cracks, so they have provided a complete description of electricity in all it's manifestations and explicitly forbidden any manipulation of it. And the two natural phenomena that might have called that into question were co-opted as divine reminders of Langhorne's status and power. Where so much of the Proscriptions comes down to a judgement call - is such-and-so within the intent of the text - that has proven very subject to manipulation, the only option for Clyntahn or Charis on this matter is to follow the Writ or defy it. Clyntahn and the Inquisition won't do that. Charis _can't_ do that.

Not yet. Whether they could even do it in less that 20 years is doubtful. So the Empire won't be using diesel-electric submarines to sink the armadas launched against it in the Thing's name. They won't even have electric flashlights to find their way through the sewers of Tellesberg, if it comes to that. As others, I see 3 options: the Thing is neutralised without ever activating, in which case the Nimues revert to Plan A [and the Big War is postponed for a couple of generations]; the Thing activates, evaluates the situation, and throws in the towel, in which case it will probably be possible to undermine the Writ without triggering a Big War at all [only likely if the Thing is Schueler, or created by him, and he really is the Kinder, Gentler model]; the Thing activates, evaluates the situation - and hurls its hordes at Charis' throat. And in that scenario, since abject failure isn't an option [this is Himself who's writing the story], we will find that the time passed has been enough that when the Inner Circle comes into the open in defiance of the Thing, they can bring a solid core of the Empire's population, and probably Siddarmark's, along with them. And the big surprise, for them at least, will be how many people _outside_ those limits also come down on their side. [and the Big War may end with the rivers of Safehold running red]

How about option #4:
Ignorant of the existance of anything resembling an inner circle or secret brother/sisterhoods, the Thing wakes up, looks over the situation and declares the Church of Charis to be in the right, taking over the head of church position from Archbishop Maikel and demotes the entire continental vicarage (demotion may range from "keep your position but you're now subordinate to the United Church of Charis instead of sitting pretty in Zion" for the innocent bystanders if any to "demoted to corps").

That would open the gates for a true civil war down the road - namely when The Thing gets wind of either secret society - and would explain why every side starts with a nearly identical tech base.

While all things are possible, some things are a bit more likely than others. Option 4 strikes me as in the less likely category. Whatever angel or archangel created the Thing under the Temple would have created it in their own image and very little that we know about the angels and archangels would have provided formed the basis for a positive character reference.

Don

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n7axw wrote:

HamsterDesTodes wrote:
How about option #4:
Ignorant of the existance of anything resembling an inner circle or secret brother/sisterhoods, the Thing wakes up, looks over the situation and declares the Church of Charis to be in the right, taking over the head of church position from Archbishop Maikel and demotes the entire continental vicarage (demotion may range from "keep your position but you're now subordinate to the United Church of Charis instead of sitting pretty in Zion" for the innocent bystanders if any to "demoted to corps").

That would open the gates for a true civil war down the road - namely when The Thing gets wind of either secret society - and would explain why every side starts with a nearly identical tech base.

While all things are possible, some things are a bit more likely than others. Option 4 strikes me as in the less likely category. Whatever angel or archangel created the Thing under the Temple would have created it in their own image and very little that we know about the angels and archangels would have provided formed the basis for a positive character reference.

Don

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The decision doesnt have to be made for positive reasons. A nice and friendly personality works best of course, but "Nobody is allowed to abuse power but myself" could be a decent starting point as well, followed by a cost/benefit analysis of CoGA vs CoC reputation where Charis should win handily.
Also keep in mind that as long as whatever is below the temple got even partial access to recent (as in: last couple of centuries or somesuch) activities inside the temple, there can be no question that nobody in the temple is actually a believer, whereas a short observation of Maikel will show a deeply religious personality. Just as long as he doesnt know what exactly Maikel believes in (or better: doesnt believe in) the decision who's the more trustworthy would be easy.
Worked during the last war, didnt it? You know, the one that was won last week before I went to sleep.

Now, the seijin stories may be a n unsurpassable hurdle, unless the thing writes them off as exactly that: stories.