I thought I had posted this some time ago as an update to my suggestions that Dairnyth would be the first stop of some of the KHVII's [more than 3 when they reach Gulf of Dohlar] to isolate Dohlar and Howard, while the rest of the growing ICN fleet attacked the messenger wyvernries within easy striking distance of the sea on both sides of Mahthyw Passage and the Bay of Bess, just breaking the cages open to let the wyverns fly home, to reduce the net number available to the temple since taking Dairnyth eliminates all the semaphore lines south.
However, it soon occurred to me that Dairnyth could also be taken by EHM or General Symkyn heading south west after destroying Kaitswyrth's army much faster than waiting a month or two for the KHVII's etc, ie perhaps a 5day or sooner after Merlin's talk with Thirsk.
DE apparently headed northwest towards Salyk-Sairmeet, ~700 miles from BGV at Lakeside, while either of the two but probably Symkyn went due west along the South Davyn River to the west edge of the Charayn Canal, around 700 miles from DE, while EHM with all his dragoons moves south west to Dairnyth, possibly using the Fairmyn River, Dairnyth being about 700 miles south of Symkyn and ~500 miles from Hanth.
While 700 miles seems too far to be mutually supporting, two nearby armies could combine in about nine days if they needed to do so.
Samyrsyt and Stohnar are also coming up so the gaps could be reduced further before winter locks things down.
While Dairnyth is ~1000-1200 miles from the South Davyn, the 75-80 days since the AoG surrendered means the daily average distance required is 13-16 miles depending on when and where they start from, pretty easy for armies trained for 40 MPD.
Even if EHM has to lay siege to Dairnyth, destroying the communications junction ASAP [now in October] erodes the temple's control considerably by reducing daily messages to only the most critical.
Taking Dairnyth offers the ICN a secure base in the north eastern gulf, while doubling the landward pressure on Dohlar; Hanth may have been keeping the pressure on Rychtyr, but quietly clearing the river northward would also be a priority, as would the Dairnyth-St Alyk Canal.
Yes, the locks were blown, But Duchairn suspected back in LaMA that the allies could repair canal locks faster than the temple could, which was 3 locks in 3-4 5days.
The question then becomes how many locks are there to repair.
There were only 3 between Aivystyn and the Glacierheart province border, or less than one every hundred miles, the Charayn Canal layout implies very few [as does the Dairnyth-St. Alyk], leaving how many are on the Fairmyn River, and whether they were ordered blown since all those a thousand miles ahead ought to have been enough.
Given the longer message trip time, its possible Clyntahn and/or Dohlar's Intendant may panic and attempt to take the country over to preclude Clyntahn's fears that Thirsk may take the country out of the jihad by having Thorast and other right thinking nobles force Rahnyld to abdicate.
Either the coup fails in the palace [mortally wounding the king-ticking off all the common people etc], or the 'Fist of God' blows up all the inquisitors and their supporters when they come in for a conference, which weakens Clyntahn's forces considerably, allowing Fern to create a popular regency with Thirsk and Ahlverez.
I look forward to your thoughtful comments.
L