Speculation on the next in the Safehold series

JeffEngel wrote:
Leaders of Siddarmark and Charis should dance for joy if Clyntahn sent a reprisal force to Dohlar. For one, it'd strengthen Reformist/revolutionary sentiment in Dohlar, something that's surely going to be welcome in the best plausible cases. But more to the point, any such army is going to have a supply line running along the coast that is vulnerable to getting cut off by land or by sea, and the force itself is both out from between them and Zion, and invites encirclement.

I don't suppose that Clyntahn would refrain from that sort of thing, but it would be another colossal error.

Rakurai terrorists unleashed on Dohlar would expose far fewer resources to being lost to the Church and help satiate his bloodlust. In that best plausible case, there would still be an unfortunate number of Temple Loyalists extreme enough in Dohlar to volunteer, or even carry on a terror campaign independent of word from Zion. I don't think that would be likely to unseat a revolutionary regime in Dohlar, or compromise its ability to defend its territory from Temple Loyalist forces, but it can certainly cause a lot more bloodshed and ill-will.

And a step up from that, there's no guarantee against a civil war. The Allies would be able to provide limited support consistent with the theme of a revolution for a genuinely independent and sovereign Dohlar, but that would be no problem for whatever support the Church may provide, limited though that would be.

JeffEngel wrote: snip -
Someone's going to have to take the risk to be that spark in Dohlar, though it might well be someone who fully expects to die horribly for it and just can't bear any longer to be party to atrocities. snip

But a mutiny about turning over your fellow sailors for torture after a hard, honorable fight against a superior foe isn't terribly unlikely, and from there it can snowball into a revolution against a despicable authority - in Gorath or in Zion - that would do such a thing for the Grand Fornicator. snip

DDHvi wrote:

JeffEngel wrote: snip -
Someone's going to have to take the risk to be that spark in Dohlar, though it might well be someone who fully expects to die horribly for it and just can't bear any longer to be party to atrocities. snip

But a mutiny about turning over your fellow sailors for torture after a hard, honorable fight against a superior foe isn't terribly unlikely, and from there it can snowball into a revolution against a despicable authority - in Gorath or in Zion - that would do such a thing for the Grand Fornicator. snip

IIRC, in Romania, the spark was someone in a crowd which had been told to cheer who started booing instead. Before long, everyone was, which grew into "Kill the dictator."

n7axw wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:
Leaders of Siddarmark and Charis should dance for joy if Clyntahn sent a reprisal force to Dohlar. For one, it'd strengthen Reformist/revolutionary sentiment in Dohlar, something that's surely going to be welcome in the best plausible cases. But more to the point, any such army is going to have a supply line running along the coast that is vulnerable to getting cut off by land or by sea, and the force itself is both out from between them and Zion, and invites encirclement.

I don't suppose that Clyntahn would refrain from that sort of thing, but it would be another colossal error.

Rakurai terrorists unleashed on Dohlar would expose far fewer resources to being lost to the Church and help satiate his bloodlust. In that best plausible case, there would still be an unfortunate number of Temple Loyalists extreme enough in Dohlar to volunteer, or even carry on a terror campaign independent of word from Zion. I don't think that would be likely to unseat a revolutionary regime in Dohlar, or compromise its ability to defend its territory from Temple Loyalist forces, but it can certainly cause a lot more bloodshed and ill-will.

And a step up from that, there's no guarantee against a civil war. The Allies would be able to provide limited support consistent with the theme of a revolution for a genuinely independent and sovereign Dohlar, but that would be no problem for whatever support the Church may provide, limited though that would be.

Agreed on all counts. The issue would be preventing the inquisitors in Dohlar from carrying out their own version of the SoS. Dohlar's population as a whole is more like Siddarmark's than Harchong's which is one of the reasons for Clyntahn's distrust.

Don

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I'll take this moment to say that if I had my druthers, I'd rather that the field be static with the message number as of that date. Then you can look back and see the difference between a wet-behind-the-ears Ensign and an experienced Commodore!

crucisnh wrote:Like you said, it's DW's story. But it's always struck me as odd that Merlin (or now, Nimue) doesn't do more behind the lines sabotage of things like ammo dumps, or gun powder factories, or shipyards, or steel factories, etc. Gun powder factories or ammo dumps would seem particularly susceptible, given that one small explosion could have such catastrophic results. Maybe deliberately attack an ammo barge in a canal lock ... just like the earlier accidental incident. It's a two-for-the-price-of-one attack. Destroy a good deal of gunpowder, and take a canal lock out of action for a few weeks or more.

This sort of attack wouldn't even have to be aimed at the "thinkers" on the enemy side, which Merlin has wanted to cultivate. Just attack certain key areas that would have a major impact on the enemy's ability to support the war effort.

Larry wrote:Well if your going to dream, dream big I say. Wait for winter to shut down the roads and links around Zion. Then blow every semaphore tower around the city for three hundred miles or so. Isolate that place to where messages take forever and a day to get in and out, then wait for paranoia and the need to know whats happening drive the big four out of the city. Then bump them off. Or at least bump off Duchairn and Magwair as the only competent minds in the group. By all means leave Clynthan alone. The man is worth his weight in Gold to the reformation minded because of the stupidity he would bring as he regretfully takes over and then tries to manage the Jihad and for the anger his increasingly (with no one to rein him in) draconian policies would engender. Kill the bright ones, leave the stupid leaders in place.

Can you imagine what the Group of Four would be like if their communications took a hit like that? What Zion would be like in winter if they suddenly had that kind of time lag in comms? What rumors you could start in the remaining college of vicars? Oh such merry fun for Psych-Ops it could be!

Larry

thanatos wrote:There are a number of plot threads that come to mind from HFQ and the rest of the series that we could see addressed in the next installation:

1) Thirsk - Obviously, he is going to be presented with the truth. Merlin doesn't do personal house calls for anything less (see HFAF and Paityr Wylsyn's exposure to the truth).

Randomiser wrote:They don't necessarily need better stealth, just a platform with better survivability and bigger 'guns' than the remote previously used; something designed for combat rather than stealthy reconnaisance perhaps, or maybe many more of them, or who knows what? I find it hard to believe that a TF dreadnought or two couldn't take down a relatively fixed orbital planetary bombardment system. In that sense the Good Guys(tm) don't need to do original research, just some engineering to find a way of applying known principles to this situation. (A bit like building a PICA without the ten day limit) Perhaps 'surely' in my previous post was a mite strong, but it has to be within the bounds of reasonable possibility. Especially given how limited OWL was at the time it was asked about tackling the OBS.

Peter2 wrote:Lastly, I fully accept that something could be made which would blow an OBS system apart, but I cannot see how can one could be made, got into orbit, and used effectively without electronics and electricity for the control systems. Possibly known technology would suffice to do that. But if new inventions and developments need to be made in those areas, unless I misunderstand the situation on Safehold, the OBS system is likely to terminate the experiments with extreme prejudice as soon as the radiation signature of the necessary research becomes sufficiently obvious.
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