Speculation on the next in the Safehold series

n7axw wrote:

TBird50 wrote:I can't see Thirsk and Dohlar going the neutrality route. There is a lot to recommend it, probably, but they are just too important to the story to just fall to the side.

Neutrality is probably the best option for Dohlar if it can be pulled off. The politics of actually changing sides would be too unsettling. Now that could change if as a result of their attempt to opt out of the war, they found themselves confronted with a TL army. That presents us with the rather interesting scenario of Rychtyr and Hanth teaming up to protect Dohlar's territorial integrity. Wouldn't that be fun...

I suspect, though, that the COGA will have more immediate concerns than Dohlar by summer.

Don

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This isn't a kind of war that recognizes a principled, up-front neutrality. It's about the authority of the Temple at this point: either you recognize it or you reject it. You can try to append asterisks to that recognition, like Desnair, Silkiah, and the Raven Lands have in various ways, but your ability to do that is subject to Church willingness to let you and ability to stop you, and your own domestic political will to embrace a certain weaselly position.

The Church may not be well able to intervene in Dohlar from outside, and Dohlaran willingness to go along with more demands that they offer up their sons and husbands for human sacrifice has to be coming to an end.

The trouble with the weaselly positions that opt out of the war (or out of the embargo, in pre-Sword Silkiah's case) is that it undermines the authority and dignity of the sovereign. You're not really expressing an effective public policy clearly with that kind of two-faced dealing. Desnair's a bit rickety, and that policy exposes court factionalism. The Raven Lands leadership isn't all that powerful anyway - it's an exercise in herding cats - so a figleaf of Temple semi-compliance suffices for them domestically. And everyone in Silkiah knew that pursuing Silkiah's interests meant doing do while theoretically submitting to outside demands: it's the way the poor state was set up, as a demilitarized compromise among Siddarmark, Desnair, and Zion.

I don't see Dohlar as being able to do that. It's a working monarchy. Granted, it's a working monarchy despite the monarch and even despite the opinions among his counselors. But it's got the honor and expectations of a unified, sovereign state, and Clyntahn is demanding that it knuckle under in a specific sort of way that means abandonment of that. If they're going to reject the Temple, they're going to have to do it clearly - they're going to have to be an Emerald, Tarot, or Chisholm, not a Desnair, Silkiah, or Raven Lands.

JeffEngel wrote:
[snip]

The trouble with the weaselly positions that opt out of the war (or out of the embargo, in pre-Sword Silkiah's case) is that it undermines the authority and dignity of the sovereign. . . .

[snip]

I don't see Dohlar as being able to do that. It's a working monarchy. Granted, it's a working monarchy despite the monarch and even despite the opinions among his counselors. But it's got the honor and expectations of a unified, sovereign state, and Clyntahn is demanding that it knuckle under in a specific sort of way that means abandonment of that. If they're going to reject the Temple, they're going to have to do it clearly - they're going to have to be an Emerald, Tarot, or Chisholm, not a Desnair, Silkiah, or Raven Lands.

Following your line of thought onwards, they could even end up by stumbling into a low-level civil war. I'm pretty sure nobody in there wants it, but you could end up with a pro-CoGA anti-Inquisition faction to complicate the simple pro-CoGA, pro-EoC, and anti-everybody-else (i.e. "just-leave-me-the-hell-out-of-this") sides, and if positions become too entrenched, they might fall into it by accident. It might only take a couple of sufficiently powerful people shooting their mouths off, or a couple of duels, if the Dohlaran aristocracy goes in for that sort of thing.

JeffEngel wrote:This isn't a kind of war that recognizes a principled, up-front neutrality. It's about the authority of the Temple at this point: either you recognize it or you reject it. You can try to append asterisks to that recognition, like Desnair, Silkiah, and the Raven Lands have in various ways, but your ability to do that is subject to Church willingness to let you and ability to stop you, and your own domestic political will to embrace a certain weaselly position.

The Church may not be well able to intervene in Dohlar from outside, and Dohlaran willingness to go along with more demands that they offer up their sons and husbands for human sacrifice has to be coming to an end.

The trouble with the weaselly positions that opt out of the war (or out of the embargo, in pre-Sword Silkiah's case) is that it undermines the authority and dignity of the sovereign. You're not really expressing an effective public policy clearly with that kind of two-faced dealing. Desnair's a bit rickety, and that policy exposes court factionalism. The Raven Lands leadership isn't all that powerful anyway - it's an exercise in herding cats - so a figleaf of Temple semi-compliance suffices for them domestically. And everyone in Silkiah knew that pursuing Silkiah's interests meant doing do while theoretically submitting to outside demands: it's the way the poor state was set up, as a demilitarized compromise among Siddarmark, Desnair, and Zion.

I don't see Dohlar as being able to do that. It's a working monarchy. Granted, it's a working monarchy despite the monarch and even despite the opinions among his counselors. But it's got the honor and expectations of a unified, sovereign state, and Clyntahn is demanding that it knuckle under in a specific sort of way that means abandonment of that. If they're going to reject the Temple, they're going to have to do it clearly - they're going to have to be an Emerald, Tarot, or Chisholm, not a Desnair, Silkiah, or Raven Lands.

I basicly pretty much agree, Jeff. I'll amend my comment to "de facto." What the allies really need is the at least informal agreement that "I'll stop beating on you if you stop beating on me."

Clyntahn is going to howl about even that and Dohlar has to get it's local inquisition under wraps to carry it out.

Face it. There has never been any such thing as true sovereignty on Safehold. Mostly it has been a case of the Temple saying "jump" and everybody else saying "how high?"

Whatever else happens Dohlar is not going to be raising troops to fight in allied armies. That was really my point. Sometimes even fig leaves can have merit.

Don

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I've been ruminatin' about this mutiny thing. I keep coming back to the enormity of the action. We're talking about a lot of little ordinary people breaking with what's been the center of their lives. They face almost certain excommunication and being labelled as heretics and they don't have an obvious refuge.

I don't think anger at their fellow Dohlarans being turned over to the Inquisition for torture because they lost a battle against overwhelming odds is hhsufficient cause to deny Mother Church. If we think of Gorath/Dohlar as a forest, we have a tinder dry forest with a lot of dry branches lying around which is dangerous but nothing without a careless camper or a lightning strike to ignite the fire.

I would suggest that the spark that sets the fire off will be Bishop Maik, or possibly the Pigeon King. Thirsk doesn't have the religious weight to get people to defy Mother Church. Maik does. His position with the RDN and his relationship with Thirsk give him a fairly secure base to operate from. If he comes out and repudiates the Iquisition but not Mother Church, a revolt would not seem to be such a complete break for the common folk. It would also go a long way to saving his head from a Charisian axe.

n7axw wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:The trouble with the weaselly positions that opt out of the war (or out of the embargo, in pre-Sword Silkiah's case) is that it undermines the authority and dignity of the sovereign. You're not really expressing an effective public policy clearly with that kind of two-faced dealing. Desnair's a bit rickety, and that policy exposes court factionalism. The Raven Lands leadership isn't all that powerful anyway - it's an exercise in herding cats - so a figleaf of Temple semi-compliance suffices for them domestically. And everyone in Silkiah knew that pursuing Silkiah's interests meant doing do while theoretically submitting to outside demands: it's the way the poor state was set up, as a demilitarized compromise among Siddarmark, Desnair, and Zion.

I don't see Dohlar as being able to do that. It's a working monarchy. Granted, it's a working monarchy despite the monarch and even despite the opinions among his counselors. But it's got the honor and expectations of a unified, sovereign state, and Clyntahn is demanding that it knuckle under in a specific sort of way that means abandonment of that. If they're going to reject the Temple, they're going to have to do it clearly - they're going to have to be an Emerald, Tarot, or Chisholm, not a Desnair, Silkiah, or Raven Lands.

I basicly pretty much agree, Jeff. I'll amend my comment to "de facto." What the allies really need is the at least informal agreement that "I'll stop beating on you if you stop beating on me."

Clyntahn is going to howl about even that and Dohlar has to get it's local inquisition under wraps to carry it out.

That's all the allies need, yes - I just don't think that only that is a stable position for Dohlar. They need to take and maintain public principled stands, and it's likely to be triggered not by sheer painful loss like Desnair or being in a lousy position for a Temple Loyalist and not really inclined to be one anyway like the Raven Landers.

We're disagreeing even less than you may think, as I'm not expecting Dohlaran troops joining Allied armies either. The Allies don't need the RDN and the RDA will need too much rebuilding and too much time maintaining the Reformist position at home to help in the best case. So Temple-rejection won't make those demands of Dohlar, which may make it more palatable there. But if they do make the open break I'd expect for them, they're lining up with the heretics well enough even without supporting them in the field. From Dohlar, they can keep the bottle on Howard by land so that Delferahk, South Harchong, and Desnair are totally isolated from the Temple. (And therefore incidentally freer to make their own choices.) If some Reformist Dohlaran sailors and soldiers want to go further, I'm sure a "Free Charisian Legion" could accept them. If not, not.

Face it. There has never been any such thing as true sovereignty on Safehold. Mostly it has been a case of the Temple saying "jump" and everybody else saying "how high?"

Right. It's been a world government under the Temple, and what Charis started was a secessionist movement in which the local provincial authorities (the monarchy and archbishopric) seized control and declared independence of the capital.

Still, there's "almost sovereignty" and "you're kidding me". Dohlar has and treasures almost sovereignty, the way Siddarmark and Charis have traditionally had and Delferahk, Chisholm, Corisande have had in aspiration at least. Power is so defuse and casually related to the emperor in Desnair and Harchong, or rooted more in other capitals in Silkiah, that they're in the latter category instead.

One thing about almost sovereignty for Charis and Siddarmark - it made seizure of actual sovereignty perfectly thinkable. Participation in that looked good for Chisholm and Emerald, and I think King Zhames of Delferahk has started dreaming of it very quietly.

Whatever else happens Dohlar is not going to be raising troops to fight in allied armies. That was really my point. Sometimes even fig leaves can have merit.

Don

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Absolutely. They've been crucial for every unenthusiastic participant in the jihad. Dohlar hasn't quite lacked for enthusiasm though, in fair part because, I think, they've made a good showing in it and have had work to be proud of. Much like Thirsk himself, they only deserve a better cause for it. Mother Church has been using up stored moral capital coming off as a good cause for Dohlar, but Clyntahn doesn't even notice that price when he flings around orders. If Dohlar is going to reject the Temple for principle's sake, they won't have a use for a fig leaf that way.

EdThomas wrote:I've been ruminatin' about this mutiny thing. I keep coming back to the enormity of the action. We're talking about a lot of little ordinary people breaking with what's been the center of their lives. They face almost certain excommunication and being labelled as heretics and they don't have an obvious refuge.

It's a good point about the depth of acceptance and obedience Mother Church had. But the central thing to take out of HFQ is that that acceptance and obedience has been shaken all over. People aren't taking the Church's victory as inevitable or the Church's moral authority as axiomatic anymore. They've lost too many battles and ground for the one and the Church has killed too much of its own flock for the other.

What's left is the difficulty of standing up on principle for people who, if the people around them do not support that stand, will die horribly and accomplish nothing. Someone's going to have to take the risk to be that spark in Dohlar, though it might well be someone who fully expects to die horribly for it and just can't bear any longer to be party to atrocities. We've seem that kind of honor before survival in Church concentration camps - we can't assume it's going to happen in the RDN chain of command, but it's possible. Thirsk has a lot of sailors and officers who have a lot of camaraderie and no small measure of moral and physical courage.

I don't think anger at their fellow Dohlarans being turned over to the Inquisition for torture because they lost a battle against overwhelming odds is hhsufficient cause to deny Mother Church. If we think of Gorath/Dohlar as a forest, we have a tinder dry forest with a lot of dry branches lying around which is dangerous but nothing without a careless camper or a lightning strike to ignite the fire.

I would suggest that the spark that sets the fire off will be Bishop Maik, or possibly the Pigeon King. Thirsk doesn't have the religious weight to get people to defy Mother Church. Maik does. His position with the RDN and his relationship with Thirsk give him a fairly secure base to operate from. If he comes out and repudiates the Iquisition but not Mother Church, a revolt seem to be not such a complete break for the common folk. It would also go a long way to saving his head frm a Charisian axe.

It wouldn't take someone in high position to start it. Mutinies, after all, are a grassroots thing. But a mutiny about turning over your fellow sailors for torture after a hard, honorable fight against a superior foe isn't terribly unlikely, and from there it can snowball into a revolution against a despicable authority - in Gorath or in Zion - that would do such a thing for the Grand Fornicator. High powered support would be very, very useful, but not strictly necessary and certainly not the starting point.

Right now, repudiating the Inquisition but not Mother Church amounts to rejecting Zion, because Zion is the Inquisition's mouthpiece anymore. If you're a loyal child of Mother Church but you cannot accept the authority of the current bunch in Zion, congratulations, you're a heretic Reformist - even, especially, if you were driven to that by your conservative love of the Church that shepherded you and your family since Creation. It may be very helpful to view it that way, but it won't change what side you're on or put you outside the fray.

EdThomas wrote:I've been ruminatin' about this mutiny thing. I keep coming back to the enormity of the action. We're talking about a lot of little ordinary people breaking with what's been the center of their lives. They face almost certain excommunication and being labelled as heretics and they don't have an obvious refuge.

I don't think anger at their fellow Dohlarans being turned over to the Inquisition for torture because they lost a battle against overwhelming odds is hhsufficient cause to deny Mother Church. If we think of Gorath/Dohlar as a forest, we have a tinder dry forest with a lot of dry branches lying around which is dangerous but nothing without a careless camper or a lightning strike to ignite the fire.

I would suggest that the spark that sets the fire off will be Bishop Maik, or possibly the Pigeon King. Thirsk doesn't have the religious weight to get people to defy Mother Church. Maik does. His position with the RDN and his relationship with Thirsk give him a fairly secure base to operate from. If he comes out and repudiates the Iquisition but not Mother Church, a revolt seem to be not such a complete break for the common folk. It would also go a long way to saving his head frm a Charisian axe.

Added on to what happened to Manthyr Being widely perceived as soiling RDN honor, I think that the notion of sending their own to the punishment is closer to the edge than you think for the navy.

As for the common folk, I think you're right. That is why you don't try to get Dohlar to completely switch sides. To do so would be to risk that low grade civil war Peter2 was talking about.

Of course to defy the inquisition will be perceived as a complete break in Zion. And if Zion reacts by trying to attack Dohlar, the common folk will start perceiving things differently. They won't like having their homes burned over their heads any better than Charisians did.

So... informal neutrality with the inquisition prevented from interfering and wait for Zion to be the aggressor which unless they are preoccupied with something more urgent than Dohlar, they will.

Don

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Clyntahn isn't going to/ can't take Thirsk and Dohlar going neutral. He needs the military there if for nothing more than a bump in the Charis road to the Temple.
He can't afford to have any remaining "loyal" kingdom dropping out. That would provide cover for others to do the same. Men, armes, territorial depth of defense, attempting to drain the blood out of the Charis armies? Pick any and all reasons, Clyntahn has to know he is backed way into a corner and there is no way he can prevail if decide to just sit out the rest of the conflict.

Brigade XO wrote:Clyntahn isn't going to/ can't take Thirsk and Dohlar going neutral. He needs the military there if for nothing more than a bump in the Charis road to the Temple.
He can't afford to have any remaining "loyal" kingdom dropping out. That would provide cover for others to do the same. Men, armes, territorial depth of defense, attempting to drain the blood out of the Charis armies? Pick any and all reasons, Clyntahn has to know he is backed way into a corner and there is no way he can prevail if decide to just sit out the rest of the conflict.

Exactly. Given the sheer numbers of men out of Harchong the Temple has raised, I wouldn't be surprised for an army to be designated to deal with Dohlar. But on the other hand, if Eastshare, BGV, and Stohner start closing in on Zion or if, say, you have BGV invade from the sea, Dohlar moves down the scale of priority.

Don

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n7axw wrote:

Brigade XO wrote:Clyntahn isn't going to/ can't take Thirsk and Dohlar going neutral. He needs the military there if for nothing more than a bump in the Charis road to the Temple.
He can't afford to have any remaining "loyal" kingdom dropping out. That would provide cover for others to do the same. Men, armes, territorial depth of defense, attempting to drain the blood out of the Charis armies? Pick any and all reasons, Clyntahn has to know he is backed way into a corner and there is no way he can prevail if decide to just sit out the rest of the conflict.

Exactly. Given the sheer numbers of men out of Harchong the Temple has raised, I wouldn't be surprised for an army to be designated to deal with Dohlar. But on the other hand, if Eastshare, BGV, and Stohner start closing in on Zion or if, say, you have BGV invade from the sea, Dohlar moves down the scale of priority.

Don

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Leaders of Siddarmark and Charis should dance for joy if Clyntahn sent a reprisal force to Dohlar. For one, it'd strengthen Reformist/revolutionary sentiment in Dohlar, something that's surely going to be welcome in the best plausible cases. But more to the point, any such army is going to have a supply line running along the coast that is vulnerable to getting cut off by land or by sea, and the force itself is both out from between them and Zion, and invites encirclement.

I don't suppose that Clyntahn would refrain from that sort of thing, but it would be another colossal error.

Rakurai terrorists unleashed on Dohlar would expose far fewer resources to being lost to the Church and help satiate his bloodlust. In that best plausible case, there would still be an unfortunate number of Temple Loyalists extreme enough in Dohlar to volunteer, or even carry on a terror campaign independent of word from Zion. I don't think that would be likely to unseat a revolutionary regime in Dohlar, or compromise its ability to defend its territory from Temple Loyalist forces, but it can certainly cause a lot more bloodshed and ill-will.

And a step up from that, there's no guarantee against a civil war. The Allies would be able to provide limited support consistent with the theme of a revolution for a genuinely independent and sovereign Dohlar, but that would be no problem for whatever support the Church may provide, limited though that would be.