Speculation on the next in the Safehold series

JeffEngel wrote:

n7axw wrote:I'm not sure what Ahlvarez is able to bring to the table. Someone did mention the possibility from his long march vets. But we really don't know if those are in Gorath and available.

Don

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There's only so many men and so much useful weaponry for a coup aboard ship. Even a modest fraction of the long march vets in or near Gorath would be substantial in number and better trained and equipped for action on land. (Assuming recovery from illness and exhaustion and any refitting for lost gear - if we assume less of that, that point's weaker.)

Moreover, Ahlvarez has the respect of other portions of the army, and, politically, he'd give the coup a broad front aspect, given his representation of the army in addition to Thirsk's navy (and Maik for the Church) and his own long-time and well-known hostility to Thirsk. Something that those two can agree on is very hard to regard as factional politics instead of a respectable, common-sense, new-mainstream position.

I agree with the qualification that I doubt that there are large numbers of troops in or near Gorath right now. Most of what they have left are being prepped to face Hanth or off someplace at the Dohlaran equivalent of boot camp. That would mean that Thirsk's crews could be proportionately more important than numbers alone would suggest.

Don

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They will be especially effective if someone passes on to them some high grade intelligence. Merlin should not tell Thirsk about SNARCs but could offer remarkably reliable advice about who can be trusted.and excellent hunches about enemy intentions.

Expert snuggler wrote:They will be especially effective if someone passes on to them some high grade intelligence. Merlin should not tell Thirsk about SNARCs but could offer remarkably reliable advice about who can be trusted.and excellent hunches about enemy intentions.

Exactly. But first Thirsk needs to commit. He probably will, but the time for waffling is past.

Don

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CRC wrote:Honor Demands It...Thirsk's that is...

I too have re-read the series and concentrated on Thirsk's character. His personal honor, now that he will know his family is safe, will not be satisfied by simply staying on the sidelines. Whether he actively rebels against his king or personally goes to see Clyntahn, I don't know, but I like the idea of him teaming with Ahlvarez and at a minimum enforcing neutrality while the church sorts itself out.

But the bottom line is that his personal honor will cause him to do something proactively. Not simply fade into exile. And I really don't believe he will leave and join Charis.

Ah, but what is your read on the Navy's Intendant, Auxillary Bishop Staiphan Maik? Here we have a Schueler Priest who has his name on orders that sent Charisian POWs to the Punishment in Zion. Yet he has been Thirsk's sounding board and protector ever since he was reactivated. He demonstrates in private his revulsion for the policies but, if the letter of the law of the Charis policy on the Inquisition is followed, he may be subject to death.

Personally, I think that Thirsk will opt for a policy following Desnair into neutrality, first attempting to convince the nobility and perhaps the King's heir who is approaching 16, or failing that - raise the mob for a coup. The latter would be something truly desperate indeed!

Charybdis wrote:

CRC wrote:Honor Demands It...Thirsk's that is...

I too have re-read the series and concentrated on Thirsk's character. His personal honor, now that he will know his family is safe, will not be satisfied by simply staying on the sidelines. Whether he actively rebels against his king or personally goes to see Clyntahn, I don't know, but I like the idea of him teaming with Ahlvarez and at a minimum enforcing neutrality while the church sorts itself out.

But the bottom line is that his personal honor will cause him to do something proactively. Not simply fade into exile. And I really don't believe he will leave and join Charis.

Ah, but what is your read on the Navy's Intendant, Auxillary Bishop Staiphan Maik? Here we have a Schueler Priest who has his name on orders that sent Charisian POWs to the Punishment in Zion. Yet he has been Thirsk's sounding board and protector ever since he was reactivated. He demonstrates in private his revulsion for the policies but, if the letter of the law of the Charis policy on the Inquisition is followed, he may be subject to death.

Personally, I think that Thirsk will opt for a policy following Desnair into neutrality, first attempting to convince the nobility and perhaps the King's heir who is approaching 16, or failing that - raise the mob for a coup. The latter would be something truly desperate indeed!

I think Maik is trapped. It's easier to visualize an out for Thirsk than Maik...

Don

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I see Malik renouncing Clyntahn and the whole inquisition before too long. Otherwise he tempts the decreed Charis fate for all inquisitors. He, like Thirsk, is trapped, but I see Thirsk being able to save his life.

CRC wrote:I see Malik renouncing Clyntahn and the whole inquisition before too long. Otherwise he tempts the decreed Charis fate for all inquisitors. He, like Thirsk, is trapped, but I see Thirsk being able to save his life.

Execution by Charis isn't all that bad, considering the kinds of options Maik has ahead of him. Up to a point, he doesn't have a whole lot of choice - if he didn't comply with the orders from Zion, he'd be tortured to death and they'd be carried out anyway. If and when he does get a live choice, I don't think he's going to keep feeding people to Clyntahn if he can actually stop it. Dohlar leaving the jihad would let that happen.

If it happens that the price of saving people is capture and execution by Charis - when he's betrayed the Inquisition and done his part to stop the atrocities by it - well, so be it. It's a lot easier than what Zion would have in mind for him, and, assuming he's thoughtful about consequences and a man of conscience, it's a lot easier than getting more other people tortured and killed.

I do think we can assume he's that thoughtful and conscientious. I also think there's reason to hope that Charis would encourage Inquisitors to leave the Inquisition that way. It's not likely to be something that relieves them of all questions about their actions prior to that and consequences for them, but they won't always have death or absolute pardon as the only options available.

JeffEngel wrote:

CRC wrote:I see Malik renouncing Clyntahn and the whole inquisition before too long. Otherwise he tempts the decreed Charis fate for all inquisitors. He, like Thirsk, is trapped, but I see Thirsk being able to save his life.

Execution by Charis isn't all that bad, considering the kinds of options Maik has ahead of him. Up to a point, he doesn't have a whole lot of choice - if he didn't comply with the orders from Zion, he'd be tortured to death and they'd be carried out anyway. If and when he does get a live choice, I don't think he's going to keep feeding people to Clyntahn if he can actually stop it. Dohlar leaving the jihad would let that happen.

If it happens that the price of saving people is capture and execution by Charis - when he's betrayed the Inquisition and done his part to stop the atrocities by it - well, so be it. It's a lot easier than what Zion would have in mind for him, and, assuming he's thoughtful about consequences and a man of conscience, it's a lot easier than getting more other people tortured and killed.

I do think we can assume he's that thoughtful and conscientious. I also think there's reason to hope that Charis would encourage Inquisitors to leave the Inquisition that way. It's not likely to be something that relieves them of all questions about their actions prior to that and consequences for them, but they won't always have death or absolute pardon as the only options available.

Maik is stuck between Scylla and Charybdis, damned if he does, and damned if he doesn’t.

On the one hand, he obeys his religious superiors and sends the sailors off. He is “only following orders” – the so-called Nuremberg Defence. In our world, that sometimes works, and sometimes doesn’t. That would be approved of by Clyntahn and his cohorts, but leaves him exposed to the opprobrium of his compatriots and at least some of his colleagues, not to mention the vengeance of Charis.

On the other hand, he disobeys the Inquisition’s orders as unjust, and declines to order the sailors sent off. This will unquestionably bring down the wrath of the Inquisition and the CoG fanatics on his head, while not necessarily gaining the protection of his neighbours or avoiding the retribution of Charis for what happened to Gwilym Manthyr and his crew.

A truly unenviable pair of options. Judging by what has happened so far, his best bet may well be to resign from the Inquisition as loudly and publicly as possible, make for the fast horse which (if he has any sense at all) he should have saddled and waiting, and hot-foot it for Siddar City as quickly as he can.
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I can't see Thirsk and Dohlar going the neutrality route. There is a lot to recommend it, probably, but they are just too important to the story to just fall to the side. I agree that Maik is in a tough spot, but if/when Thirsk commits to mutiny he'll bring Maik along with all the support that Maik can bring. If he commits to the CoC and EoC, then Maik could denounce the inquisition, and with Thirsk's backing to the EoC, he could probably avoid hanging. I think he would probably be held accountable for some of his actions, but none that I recall have been done out of malice, more out of necessity (from Maik's point of view at least). I think the EoC recognizes that rock and hard place people like Maik are in, and would make allowances for that. Especially since they have the SNARC's data on Maik's & Thirsk's discussions and so they know how hard they tried to keep the Charisian's safe.

TBird50 wrote:I can't see Thirsk and Dohlar going the neutrality route. There is a lot to recommend it, probably, but they are just too important to the story to just fall to the side. I agree that Maik is in a tough spot, but if/when Thirsk commits to mutiny he'll bring Maik along with all the support that Maik can bring. If he commits to the CoC and EoC, then Maik could denounce the inquisition, and with Thirsk's backing to the EoC, he could probably avoid hanging. I think he would probably be held accountable for some of his actions, but none that I recall have been done out of malice, more out of necessity (from Maik's point of view at least). I think the EoC recognizes that rock and hard place people like Maik are in, and would make allowances for that. Especially since they have the SNARC's data on Maik's & Thirsk's discussions and so they know how hard they tried to keep the Charisian's safe.

Neutrality is probably the best option for Dohlar if it can be pulled off. The politics of actually changing sides would be too unsettling. Now that could change if as a result of their attempt to opt out of the war, they found themselves confronted with a TL army. That presents us with the rather interesting scenario of Rychtyr and Hanth teaming up to protect Dohlar's territorial integrity. Wouldn't that be fun...

I suspect, though, that the COGA will have more immediate concerns than Dohlar by summer.

Don

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