(SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.

ChronicRder wrote:

n7axw wrote:I've been catching up here and I know that the relavant discussion was several pages back on this thread...

But I do wamt to observe that I was not under the impression that those 10m casualties came from the SLN attack... I thought that they were the result of chemical or bio warfare being waged by the MAlign. I'll be the first to admit that my impression is a bit foggy here and I don't remember where it came from.

Don

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Intriguing, theory. How? MAlign may have threw the Beowulfan intelligence and Spec Ops communities for a loop for several centuries, but thanks to Manticore that is no longer the case. My understanding was that Beowulf was still several decades ahead of Mesa in terms of chemical, biological, radioactive, and nuclear [CBRN] techniques (both medically and militarily speaking) and that the only real edge Mesa had was their Eugenics program. Beowulf has to have an intricate defense network in regards to those kinds of things as complex and redundant as Mesa's political onion. I'm not saying they couldn't develop a weapon or get it in place, but I can't really see it being that effective.

Also, given the title of this thread, do we have anything anything concrete to say that this defeat will be against the GA and not the SL?

No there is nothing particularly concrete that would suggest that the GA suffers a defeat at Beowulf at the hands of the SLN. Nor is there any compelling reason to think that those 10 million casualties are the result of that attack. But on the other hand, both could be true... Making assertions either way is speculation. After all, that is what we do here.

As for how the MAlign could pull off a bio/chemical attack on Beowulf, remember the Yawata strike which cost Manticore some 4-5 million casualties, after all, and there was nothing aimed directly at the planet...

Nobody has yet to figure out how to detect a spider in stealth... It's not hard to visualise a squadron of spiders achieving tactical surprise and getting bio/chemical weapons to the surface. And some of that stuff could make nukes look like playing with firecrackers.

Don

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Fox2! wrote:The areas where MGC beats the Beowulf genetics consultants are places where the Beowolfers don't want to go, IIRC.

Like, say, bioweapons and weaponized nanites?

kzt wrote:

Fox2! wrote:The areas where MGC beats the Beowulf genetics consultants are places where the Beowolfers don't want to go, IIRC.

Like, say, bioweapons and weaponized nanites?

I seriously doubt if they'd be called "the kinder and gentler face of Mesa" if they specialized in that. Also, they'd be inside the Onion instead of being one of the Mesan corporations that's large enough to have a delegate on the General Board.

Some of us do seem to be assuming that the 'expected defeat' must be that of either Beowulf or the Grand Alliance. I read the original post as neutral in that respect, and I'm leaning towards the SLN's defeat. Just how many SLN ships are going to be involved, I wonder, and how many will be on board them. Could there perhaps be 10 million _SLN_ dead?

Cheers

John

I don't believe the context of the overheard comment goes either way as to a "defeat". But in a planet as heavily populated as Beowulf, 10M people could easily be killed by a Fractional C missile that gets past the defenses. But only one as several would cause many more than 10M dead.

CRC wrote:I don't believe the context of the overheard comment goes either way as to a "defeat". But in a planet as heavily populated as Beowulf, 10M people could easily be killed by a Fractional C missile that gets past the defenses. But only one as several would cause many more than 10M dead.

The author could conceivably allow two hits on planet, keeping the tally < 10M while also containing disbelief, just to make it more of a cliff hanger to us readers -- only to announce later in storyline that the two strikes were in relatively close proximity to each other and in the most sparsely populated of areas to boot. Too many more than that would probably funnel too much debris into the atmosphere.

Also, we must not overlook that amongst the dead could be a non-human tally as was the case with the treecats in the last planetary disaster. Gremlins on Beowulf are listed as slightly lower than treecats on the sentience scale.

At any rate, I wonder how much damage to Gremlins will be done.

And why is it so inconceivable that the GA could take one in the L column for once? Even if temporarily? My golly gumballs, let the League win ONE! Heck, with so many systems they could build LACs twice the size with powerful grasers. I don't know how they'd get them all there, but each system could build only 10 LACs and the League could seed a system with half a million of them running around like fireflies. LACs can be built quickly. They may not have time to duplicate the tech to make them smaller. But with those kinds of numbers and a powerful graser, would it matter?

USE that attritious margin!

cthia wrote:

CRC wrote:I don't believe the context of the overheard comment goes either way as to a "defeat". But in a planet as heavily populated as Beowulf, 10M people could easily be killed by a Fractional C missile that gets past the defenses. But only one as several would cause many more than 10M dead.

The author could conceivably allow two hits on planet, keeping the tally < 10M while also containing disbelief, just to make it more of a cliff hanger to us readers -- only to announce later in storyline that the two strikes were in relatively close proximity to each other and in the most sparsely populated of areas to boot. Too many more than that would probably funnel too much debris into the atmosphere.

Also, we must not overlook that amongst the dead could be a non-human tally as was the case with the treecats in the last planetary disaster. Gremlins on Beowulf are listed as slightly lower than treecats on the sentience scale.

At any rate, I wonder how much damage to Gremlins will be done.

And why is it so inconceivable that the GA could take one in the L column for once? Even if temporarily? My golly gumballs, let the League win ONE! Heck, with so many systems they could build LACs twice the size with powerful grasers. I don't know how they'd get them all there, but each system could build only 10 LACs and the League could seed a system with half a million of them running around like fireflies. LACs can be built quickly. They may not have time to duplicate the tech to make them smaller. But with those kinds of numbers and a powerful graser, would it matter?

USE that attritious margin!

Do you think the Yawata Strike wasn't a big entry under the loss column, then? For that matter, the first battle of Manticore was a big fat lose-lose for both belligerent factions now merged.

It's so inconceivable, because the deployed tech imbalance is so huge and the League hasn't got a proportionately vast military-industrial complex. For its size and wealth, it should have nearer to a million SDs rather than "just" 2,000 fully manned and 8,000 floating crewlessly. That is due to a constitutional prohibition on federal taxes - despite all that vast wealth, the federal government can only tap an infinitesmal percentage of it.

Solly built LACs would not have the beta-squared nodes. Their acceleration would be less than that of their own SDs. It doesn't matter how big a graser is squeezed into them, they'll never be able to get into range of anything the GA has deployed without first surviving the considerable anti-LAC defenses now built up.

The only thing the League has is sheer size. And that in itself is a serious handicap - all of Haven's defensive problems are magnified by about five or six times and an additional factor upon that with Manticore's seizure of the wormholes.

The so-called 800-pound gorilla has grown old, frail and his muscles turned to fat. Now the young bucks have tripped him up. The mighty alpha beast which used to dominate the universe stumbles and falls. Several bones shatter and the old beast lies on the ground, struggling and flailing as one of the younger and fitter males carefully steps up and brings down a heavy rock into his skull. Again and again.

They're not going to let the giant crawl away, heal his bones, get back on its feet and embark on a workout montage followed by a roaring rampage of revenge.

Like Napoleon said, ask for anything but time. Time, once passed, is forever lost. The Sollies had every chance to observe technological progress from Manticore and Haven's first war and learn how it ended - and then start quietly rebuilding their navy - exactly as the Imperial Andermani Navy actually did. And that paid off - the IAN weren't up to Manticoran standards but they did keep up enough to pose a serious threat in War of Honor. None of that happened back on Sol!

They've had since 1915 to do that. The New Tuscany Incident happened late 1921 and they've wasted all that intervening time doing nothing but moving their obsolete stuff into position for a war they would have won twenty years earlier, but now will only lose.

munroburton wrote:They've had since 1915 to do that. The New Tuscany Incident happened late 1921 and they've wasted all that intervening time doing nothing but moving their obsolete stuff into position for a war they would have won twenty years earlier, but now will only lose.

I think the fact that the MAlign manipulated a couple of SLN admirals to conduct exercises where they just happened to be in position for that "war they would have won twenty years earlier" is quite aside from the official SLN policy/practices. Left to their own inclinations, the SLN would have still been lazing about attending balls and feasts and playing at being a real Navy.

cthia wrote:

CRC wrote:I don't believe the context of the overheard comment goes either way as to a "defeat". But in a planet as heavily populated as Beowulf, 10M people could easily be killed by a Fractional C missile that gets past the defenses. But only one as several would cause many more than 10M dead.

The author could conceivably allow two hits on planet, keeping the tally < 10M while also containing disbelief, just to make it more of a cliff hanger to us readers -- only to announce later in storyline that the two strikes were in relatively close proximity to each other and in the most sparsely populated of areas to boot. Too many more than that would probably funnel too much debris into the atmosphere.

Someone else is going to be a lot better able than I am to run the numbers, but a c-fractional missile colliding with Beowulf is likely to release far, far too much energy for a mere 10 million dead. For that little, it's got to be laserheads, c-trivial debris, chemicals, biologicals, a nuke, KEW's, etc.

Also, we must not overlook that amongst the dead could be a non-human tally as was the case with the treecats in the last planetary disaster. Gremlins on Beowulf are listed as slightly lower than treecats on the sentience scale.

At any rate, I wonder how much damage to Gremlins will be done.

I wonder too, but if they're not as smart as treecats, they're probably less advanced technologically, so if they are living on their own, their population - especially sharing whatever of Beowulf is left after the heavy human presence - is going to be very limited. If they're mixed up with the human population and sharing their resources (like domesticated animals and the scavengers that depend on us - rats, pigeons, etc.), their numbers may be vastly higher. They're still likely to be a tiny fraction of the human population, so 10 million dead may mean like 9.8 million humans and 200,000 gremlins.

And why is it so inconceivable that the GA could take one in the L column for once? Even if temporarily? My golly gumballs, let the League win ONE! Heck, with so many systems they could build LACs twice the size with powerful grasers. I don't know how they'd get them all there, but each system could build only 10 LACs and the League could seed a system with half a million of them running around like fireflies. LACs can be built quickly. They may not have time to duplicate the tech to make them smaller. But with those kinds of numbers and a powerful graser, would it matter?

USE that attritious margin!

2000 systems could build quite a lot, though they do suffer for having practically no warship building experience, practically no warship crewing experience, and practically hopeless fighting technology.

You may get the equivalent of human wave attacks with those circumstances. Human wave attacks do demand rather firmly motivated humans though, and the League member systems aren't firmly motivated. The League's Uncle Sam is voting to secede, a quarter of the Assembly hasn't got a beef with Beowulf allying with the "enemy", and the League's bureaucrats dare not even call this a war.

The League may get a victory somewhere if it can ambush a wormhole picket inside the attackers' effective weapon ranges with overwhelming firepower. It still won't hold the field for long, and it's likely to suffer greater casualties out of that "victory" unless it's ridiculously overwhelming the picket - picture something only marginally more heroic than Byng's glorious victory at New Tuscany. You could cross your fingers for one of those successful picket ambushes happening at the Beowulf terminus - it's unlikely but not utterly incredible.

I'd not count on that SLN win-of-some-sort near the planet, barring some bizarre accident, GA commanders clutching the idiot ball, or Alignment intervention that somehow does not screw the SLN too.

RFC does not want to write war porn, but the balance of forces and capabilities means that he's got that as almost inevitable here in the Honorverse with the GA vs. SLN matchups and in Safehold. In Safehold, in the latest book, he managed that with at least three pieces of sheer bad luck for the good guys and caught some flack for it. In the next Honor book, well, weather and sand bars probably can't be relevant but I'm hoping GA setbacks can read as the result of enemies being effective rather than their officers being stupid or the universe giving them the finger.

Weird Harold wrote:

munroburton wrote:They've had since 1915 to do that. The New Tuscany Incident happened late 1921 and they've wasted all that intervening time doing nothing but moving their obsolete stuff into position for a war they would have won twenty years earlier, but now will only lose.

I think the fact that the MAlign manipulated a couple of SLN admirals to conduct exercises where they just happened to be in position for that "war they would have won twenty years earlier" is quite aside from the official SLN policy/practices. Left to their own inclinations, the SLN would have still been lazing about attending balls and feasts and playing at being a real Navy.

Quite right - there were 5 large scale SLN BF exercises outside the core in 250 years, and 2 of them happened simultaneously and were at the closest points to Manticore. Just a little fishy.