Speculation on the next in the Safehold series

Some thoughts and questions about where the next book goes...

I'm in the camp of those who see the defeated Harchongese troops going home and making some big changes. Since there isn't much experience with other forms of govt, I think they'll end up with some sort of military dictatorship(s) operating as warlords. This should provide numerous opportunities for Nahrmann to keep the pot boiling there and/or to setup some Empire-friendly enclaves.

I'm not in the camp that sees Duchairn and/or Magwair surviving Clinton and playing a major role after the war. The only way one or both of them is going to survive is if they can come up with some scheme to be out of Clinton's (and Rayno's?) clutches when the stuff hits the fan cuz Clintahn's got the only organized military forces in Zion. Aivah's FOG guys'n'gals maybe able to get them out alive but that destroys their credibility as loyal sons of Mother Church.

I'm very interested in seeing what RFC does with Siddarmark. They've been the biggest loser in the Jihad and I don't think they're gonna be very happy about any negotiated settlement Cayleb tries to force on them. I agree with those who've argued that Siddarmark isn't going to want to occupy and administer the Border States or Dohlar. I'm expecting them to push for demilitarizing the Border States and a large slice of eastern Dohlar as well as large and long-term reparations. After all, they don't know about the Treaty of Versailles.

If Silkiah does not seek to join the Empire they will become a defacto member as they'll be overwhelmed by the wave of commercial development that will pour in after the cessation of hostilities.

EdThomas wrote:Some thoughts and questions about where the next book goes...

I'm in the camp of those who see the defeated Harchongese troops going home and making some big changes. Since there isn't much experience with other forms of govt, I think they'll end up with some sort of military dictatorship(s) operating as warlords. This should provide numerous opportunities for Nahrmann to keep the pot boiling there and/or to setup some Empire-friendly enclaves.

I'm not in the camp that sees Duchairn and/or Magwair surviving Clinton and playing a major role after the war. The only way one or both of them is going to survive is if they can come up with some scheme to be out of Clinton's (and Rayno's?) clutches when the stuff hits the fan cuz Clintahn's got the only organized military forces in Zion. Aivah's FOG guys'n'gals maybe able to get them out alive but that destroys their credibility as loyal sons of Mother Church.

I'm very interested in seeing what RFC does with Siddarmark. They've been the biggest loser in the Jihad and I don't think they're gonna be very happy about any negotiated settlement Cayleb tries to force on them. I agree with those who've argued that Siddarmark isn't going to want to occupy and administer the Border States or Dohlar. I'm expecting them to push for demilitarizing the Border States and a large slice of eastern Dohlar as well as large and long-term reparations. After all, they don't know about the Treaty of Versailles.

If Silkiah does not seek to join the Empire they will become a defacto member as they'll be overwhelmed by the wave of commercial development that will pour in after the cessation of hostilities.

Just a couple of thoughts here... If things get bad enough and it appears to be the inquisitions fault, I could see portions of the AOG shooting their own inquisitors in which case Maigwair would have a force to counter Clyntahn's in Zion.

I wonder how the Zion mob would respond to seeing Duchairn put to the question in the square of martyrs ... The inquisition might be caught by surprise.

I don't see Cayleb trying to force a settlement on Stohner. In fact I don't think he wants one any more than Stohner does. Remember this started with the G-4 orchestrated attack on Charis. Both of them want to finish the fight that the G-4 started.

Don

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This is sort of an "oops" to my post earlier today.
One of the pivotal events in the book-to-come (BTC?) will be the refusal by the Dohlaran navy to send the survivors of the Charisian action to recapture their sailors to turn their compatriots over to the Inquisition for transfer to Zion. This may start as a refusal of a small group of Dohlaran sailors (a boat crew?) that mushrooms into an eventual decision by the Royal Council to refuse the orders of the Inquisition. Thirsk and Ahlverez, having been called to the meeting, will arrive escorted by troops loyal to them.(Marines and Long March survivors)
This could trigger the end of the Jihad and the Grand Inquisitor. (as if a writer as accomplished and sneaky as RFC would ever be so obvious!! )
Words to ponder http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... hold/311/1 "I would also suggest that you go back and look at what Maik actually said to him in that final conversation before he summons Manthyr to personally tell him what's about to happen. The bishop's words could — could, I say — be interpreted as deliberately pointing out that unlike his oath to his King, Thirsk has never sworn personally to obey the Grand Inquisitor. My bolding

EdThomas wrote:This is sort of an "oops" to my post earlier today.
One of the pivotal events in the book-to-come (BTC?) will be the refusal by the Dohlaran navy to send the survivors of the Charisian action to recapture their sailors to turn their compatriots over to the Inquisition for transfer to Zion. This may start as a refusal of a small group of Dohlaran sailors (a boat crew?) that mushrooms into an eventual decision by the Royal Council to refuse the orders of the Inquisition. Thirsk and Ahlverez, having been called to the meeting, will arrive escorted by troops loyal to them.(Marines and Long March survivors)
This could trigger the end of the Jihad and the Grand Inquisitor. (as if a writer as accomplished and sneaky as RFC would ever be so obvious!! )
Words to ponder http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... hold/311/1 "I would also suggest that you go back and look at what Maik actually said to him in that final conversation before he summons Manthyr to personally tell him what's about to happen. The bishop's words could — could, I say — be interpreted as deliberately pointing out that unlike his oath to his King, Thirsk has never sworn personally to obey the Grand Inquisitor. My bolding

I agree... The plot flows pretty naturally into a mutiny by the RDN. They didn't like what happened to Manthyr and now a proposal by the inquisition to subject their own to the same treatment could well push them over the edge. Thirsk could find himself comfronted by a fiat accompli by his noncoms and crews.

Don

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n7axw wrote:

EdThomas wrote:This is sort of an "oops" to my post earlier today.
One of the pivotal events in the book-to-come (BTC?) will be the refusal by the Dohlaran navy to send the survivors of the Charisian action to recapture their sailors to turn their compatriots over to the Inquisition for transfer to Zion. This may start as a refusal of a small group of Dohlaran sailors (a boat crew?) that mushrooms into an eventual decision by the Royal Council to refuse the orders of the Inquisition. Thirsk and Ahlverez, having been called to the meeting, will arrive escorted by troops loyal to them.(Marines and Long March survivors)
This could trigger the end of the Jihad and the Grand Inquisitor. (as if a writer as accomplished and sneaky as RFC would ever be so obvious!! )
Words to ponder http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... hold/311/1 "I would also suggest that you go back and look at what Maik actually said to him in that final conversation before he summons Manthyr to personally tell him what's about to happen. The bishop's words could — could, I say — be interpreted as deliberately pointing out that unlike his oath to his King, Thirsk has never sworn personally to obey the Grand Inquisitor. My bolding

I agree... The plot flows pretty naturally into a mutiny by the RDN. They didn't like what happened to Manthyr and now a proposal by the inquisition to subject their own to the same treatment could well push them over the edge. Thirsk could find himself comfronted by a fiat accompli by his noncoms and crews.

Don

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I like that, Don. I do hope you're right. Not only would Thirsk's whole-hearted support of an outright repudiation of Clyntahn and all his works redeem himself in his own eyes, it would also go a long way towards redeeming him in the eyes of the EoC as well.

I suspect that if he was aware of the support rather than having a sense of being by himself, doing what really should come next will come easier, especially now that his family isn't part of the equation...

Don

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n7axw wrote:I suspect that if he was aware of the support rather than having a sense of being by himself, doing what really should come next will come easier, especially now that his family isn't part of the equation...

Don

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I've just refinished rereading all the books. I am left feeling certain that Thirsk will be told that his family is safe and that the EoC will back him if he should want that. Thirsk has been so mistreated, maligned and mistrusted by everyone (at least up the chain of command), that he is so angry with it all that he is just about ready to explode. Right now, thinking his family is dead, he has sort of given up. But once he finds out his family is safe, he will be ready to kick some butt - namely Clyntahn's. I think he will eventually team up with Alverahz. His men, I would bet, will back him almost 100% especially after learning that the Inquisition wants all the men in the failed mission to send the Charisians to Zion. I can hardly wait for the next book!!!

TBird50 wrote:

n7axw wrote:I suspect that if he was aware of the support rather than having a sense of being by himself, doing what really should come next will come easier, especially now that his family isn't part of the equation...

Don

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I've just refinished rereading all the books. I am left feeling certain that Thirsk will be told that his family is safe and that the EoC will back him if he should want that. Thirsk has been so mistreated, maligned and mistrusted by everyone (at least up the chain of command), that he is so angry with it all that he is just about ready to explode. Right now, thinking his family is dead, he has sort of given up. But once he finds out his family is safe, he will be ready to kick some butt - namely Clyntahn's. I think he will eventually team up with Alverahz. His men, I would bet, will back him almost 100% especially after learning that the Inquisition wants all the men in the failed mission to send the Charisians to Zion. I can hardly wait for the next book!!!

Yep. I suspect that it would be easier to get a inquisition free body of armed manpower from the ships than it would be on shore... you can overpower what inquisitors might be aboard, attach cannonballs to their feet and throw them overboard if you have to.

I'm not sure what Ahlvarez is able to bring to the table. Someone did mention the possibility from his long march vets. But we really don't know if those are in Gorath and available.

Don

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n7axw wrote:I'm not sure what Ahlvarez is able to bring to the table. Someone did mention the possibility from his long march vets. But we really don't know if those are in Gorath and available.

Don

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There's only so many men and so much useful weaponry for a coup aboard ship. Even a modest fraction of the long march vets in or near Gorath would be substantial in number and better trained and equipped for action on land. (Assuming recovery from illness and exhaustion and any refitting for lost gear - if we assume less of that, that point's weaker.)

Moreover, Ahlvarez has the respect of other portions of the army, and, politically, he'd give the coup a broad front aspect, given his representation of the army in addition to Thirsk's navy (and Maik for the Church) and his own long-time and well-known hostility to Thirsk. Something that those two can agree on is very hard to regard as factional politics instead of a respectable, common-sense, new-mainstream position.

Honor Demands It...Thirsk's that is...

I too have re-read the series and concentrated on Thirsk's character. His personal honor, now that he will know his family is safe, will not be satisfied by simply staying on the sidelines. Whether he actively rebels against his king or personally goes to see Clyntahn, I don't know, but I like the idea of him teaming with Ahlvarez and at a minimum enforcing neutrality while the church sorts itself out.

But the bottom line is that his personal honor will cause him to do something proactively. Not simply fade into exile. And I really don't believe he will leave and join Charis.