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(SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.

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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by ChronicRder   » Sun Dec 20, 2015 2:14 pm

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n7axw wrote:I've been catching up here and I know that the relavant discussion was several pages back on this thread...

But I do wamt to observe that I was not under the impression that those 10m casualties came from the SLN attack... I thought that they were the result of chemical or bio warfare being waged by the MAlign. I'll be the first to admit that my impression is a bit foggy here and I don't remember where it came from.

Don

-


Intriguing, theory. How? MAlign may have threw the Beowulfan intelligence and Spec Ops communities for a loop for several centuries, but thanks to Manticore that is no longer the case. My understanding was that Beowulf was still several decades ahead of Mesa in terms of chemical, biological, radioactive, and nuclear [CBRN] techniques (both medically and militarily speaking) and that the only real edge Mesa had was their Eugenics program. Beowulf has to have an intricate defense network in regards to those kinds of things as complex and redundant as Mesa's political onion. I'm not saying they couldn't develop a weapon or get it in place, but I can't really see it being that effective.

Also, given the title of this thread, do we have anything anything concrete to say that this defeat will be against the GA and not the SL?
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by ChronicRder   » Sun Dec 20, 2015 2:24 pm

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There's been talk about fleet screens for the SLN. Has anyone considered what screen Beowulf's fleet has? I haven't seen any textev that they have anything more than 36 SDs. Does anyone know if they have BCs or lighter units aside from missile pods from Manticore? Do they even have star forts? Shipyards? Aside from phenomenal medical tech and a stellar education system, what does Beowulf have?
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by JohnRoth   » Sun Dec 20, 2015 2:26 pm

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ChronicRder wrote:
n7axw wrote:I've been catching up here and I know that the relavant discussion was several pages back on this thread...

But I do wamt to observe that I was not under the impression that those 10m casualties came from the SLN attack... I thought that they were the result of chemical or bio warfare being waged by the MAlign. I'll be the first to admit that my impression is a bit foggy here and I don't remember where it came from.

Don

-


Intriguing, theory. How? MAlign may have threw the Beowulfan intelligence and Spec Ops communities for a loop for several centuries, but thanks to Manticore that is no longer the case. My understanding was that Beowulf was still several decades ahead of Mesa in terms of chemical, biological, radioactive, and nuclear [CBRN] techniques (both medically and militarily speaking) and that the only real edge Mesa had was their Eugenics program. Beowulf has to have an intricate defense network in regards to those kinds of things as complex and redundant as Mesa's political onion. I'm not saying they couldn't develop a weapon or get it in place, but I can't really see it being that effective.

Also, given the title of this thread, do we have anything anything concrete to say that this defeat will be against the GA and not the SL?


Actually, we don't have any real knowledge that Beowulf is that far ahead of Mesa in any area of technology. Chapter 56 of CoS states specifically that Mesa Genetic Consultancy, for example, provides the same services as Beowulf, and is, in some cases, even better.

We're talking about the presumed Battle of Beowulf - that is, Beowulf vs the SL. The GA is sitting on the sidelines, ready to pounce if it looks like Beowulf can't handle it by themselves. There's no way the GA can lose.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by kzt   » Sun Dec 20, 2015 2:32 pm

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ChronicRder wrote:Intriguing, theory. How? MAlign may have threw the Beowulfan intelligence and Spec Ops communities for a loop for several centuries, but thanks to Manticore that is no longer the case. My understanding was that Beowulf was still several decades ahead of Mesa in terms of chemical, biological, radioactive, and nuclear [CBRN] techniques (both medically and militarily speaking) and that the only real edge Mesa had was their Eugenics program.

So how does that work? Really, you suddenly know that there is a shadowy organization behind your enemies in Manpower. How does that help you operate? Given that manpower could casually slip well known criminals into Beowulf to act with impunity against family members of the planetary government, it doesn't appear they were doing very well at dealing with just Manpower.

And no, Beowulf doesn't do R&D against certain classes of weapons. It's banned on Beowulf.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by ChronicRder   » Sun Dec 20, 2015 2:38 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:
Actually, we don't have any real knowledge that Beowulf is that far ahead of Mesa in any area of technology. Chapter 56 of CoS states specifically that Mesa Genetic Consultancy, for example, provides the same services as Beowulf, and is, in some cases, even better.

We're talking about the presumed Battle of Beowulf - that is, Beowulf vs the SL. The GA is sitting on the sidelines, ready to pounce if it looks like Beowulf can't handle it by themselves. There's no way the GA can lose.


That's what I thought.
We are also presuming that Beowulf gets reamed before the plebiscite finishes and/or the GA can charge to the rescue, yes? I really can't see the SL doing anything catastrophic like a planetary bombardment unless Mesa's little nanites compells them to. If they do, or that does happen, the SL undermines itself because the public in general won't. I'm sure there are some in the Solaran public who are very Trump-esk or in line with his supporters, but they have to be a minority. Esp if they can see how alignment with the SEM has benefited 3rd, 4th, or unrated worlds. Imagine what aligning with the SEM will do to a 1st rate world like a core world!
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by ChronicRder   » Sun Dec 20, 2015 2:40 pm

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kzt wrote:
ChronicRder wrote:Intriguing, theory. How? MAlign may have threw the Beowulfan intelligence and Spec Ops communities for a loop for several centuries, but thanks to Manticore that is no longer the case. My understanding was that Beowulf was still several decades ahead of Mesa in terms of chemical, biological, radioactive, and nuclear [CBRN] techniques (both medically and militarily speaking) and that the only real edge Mesa had was their Eugenics program.

So how does that work? Really, you suddenly know that there is a shadowy organization behind your enemies in Manpower. How does that help you operate? Given that manpower could casually slip well known criminals into Beowulf to act with impunity against family members of the planetary government, it doesn't appear they were doing very well at dealing with just Manpower.

And no, Beowulf doesn't do R&D against certain classes of weapons. It's banned on Beowulf.


Just like Chemical and Biological weapons are banned in the US? Our military still develops and tests them if only to keep our doctrines and preparations current.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by JeffEngel   » Sun Dec 20, 2015 4:57 pm

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ChronicRder wrote:There's been talk about fleet screens for the SLN. Has anyone considered what screen Beowulf's fleet has? I haven't seen any textev that they have anything more than 36 SDs. Does anyone know if they have BCs or lighter units aside from missile pods from Manticore? Do they even have star forts? Shipyards? Aside from phenomenal medical tech and a stellar education system, what does Beowulf have?

Given what they are supposed to be building for the GA, we can suppose they're either well equipped with shipyards or are prepared to fling them up in a hurry.

An SDF is around to have your own significant system defense (duh), but beyond that, to be able to support your merchant marine farther from home and, in Beowulf's case, likely to smack Manpower and enforce the Cherwell Convention where the SLN won't and you need a naval presence beyond the Beowulf Biological Survey Corps. SD's are suited to the first mission and the core of the force to do it, but they're not a go-to platform for the latter missions. I think we can take the existence of BSDF cruisers as a given, but they're also likely to have a minimal role in the upcoming possible dust-up. That's an affair for wallers and specialized system defense bases, pods, mines, etc., inside the hyper-limit at least. And if they've got those cruisers for cruiser missions, they're not likely at home most of the time, especially if they can be doing anything useful to track the Alignment down.

Beowulf stands out for its medical community, but otherwise, it's still a massively populated, very wealthy, well-established, and independent minded star system. Expectations ought to be pitched with that in mind.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by munroburton   » Sun Dec 20, 2015 6:02 pm

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JeffEngel wrote:
Since an atrocity is on the table here, I'm thinking of a recent event where one was expected and the defending commander had to deploy some of his units as a planetary screen: Second Battle of Congo. The threat there was a deliberate bombardment.

My current guess is something similar to what happened with William Daniels, Filareta's ops officer. Except instead of launching a fleetful of pods at an opposing fleet, they'll flush everything at Beowulf. Even Grand Fleet couldn't stop every missile fired at it during Second Manticore. If only the BSDF is in position to intercept that kind of dick move, the planet's going to take hits.

If they're targeted on the planet itself, and you really want to kill people, any leaker would do far more than 10m in deaths just by slamming into it as a projectile.

I suppose if you are less concerned about deaths and more concerned about making it look like some sort of deliberate move on some SLN officer's part, the missiles would be fired with normal parameters - get near and fire off laserheads - and nominally at stations, bases and fortresses near Beowulf. That could account for 10m casualties and not far more - there are almost certainly going to be some laserheads that discharge into the atmosphere or surface without those being the actual target. (And the debris from the orbital targets will still be going places, sometimes down.) The BSDF may not be in the best position to stop those missiles either, if it is going out to meet the hundreds of SLN "observer" wallers, leaving just close-in defenses to fend off a surprise attack.

That kind of attack could look like "just" an attack on Beowulf's orbital infrastructure and bases/fortresses, the sort of thing that's not an EE violation but too close for comfort for responsible navies. It could smear the SLN's reputation (even with itself; they're not monsters) without sending up red flags about nanotech mind control for everyone.

It would take someone with a known, prepared simple combination of movements to execute, like Daniels and the use-or-lose missile pod flush. I wouldn't think that an ops or tactical officer would be ready with such a combination for an attack on Beowulf or the orbital targets though. It would more likely take creative reprogramming on the missile or tactical computer end, possibly triggered by some human input that may itself have some nanotech influence.


Well, if the GA has stealthed LACs in position to intercept a missile storm directed at Beowulf, they could clear quite a few of the potential leakers.

There's no guarantee any of the missiles will hit(or miss) densely inhabited locations. That part will be randomised, like the debris during the Yawata Strike.

Given how jittery most officers seem to get when missiles are aimed anywhere close to a planet(even and especially one that isn't their own), I think it's frightengly easy to make missiles go for a planet strike. There isn't a hardwired inhibiton(because then enemy ECM starts making themselves look like planets) and even if there is, it wouldn't prevent a kinetic impact.

JeffEngel wrote:
ChronicRder wrote:There's been talk about fleet screens for the SLN. Has anyone considered what screen Beowulf's fleet has? I haven't seen any textev that they have anything more than 36 SDs. Does anyone know if they have BCs or lighter units aside from missile pods from Manticore? Do they even have star forts? Shipyards? Aside from phenomenal medical tech and a stellar education system, what does Beowulf have?

Given what they are supposed to be building for the GA, we can suppose they're either well equipped with shipyards or are prepared to fling them up in a hurry.

An SDF is around to have your own significant system defense (duh), but beyond that, to be able to support your merchant marine farther from home and, in Beowulf's case, likely to smack Manpower and enforce the Cherwell Convention where the SLN won't and you need a naval presence beyond the Beowulf Biological Survey Corps. SD's are suited to the first mission and the core of the force to do it, but they're not a go-to platform for the latter missions. I think we can take the existence of BSDF cruisers as a given, but they're also likely to have a minimal role in the upcoming possible dust-up. That's an affair for wallers and specialized system defense bases, pods, mines, etc., inside the hyper-limit at least. And if they've got those cruisers for cruiser missions, they're not likely at home most of the time, especially if they can be doing anything useful to track the Alignment down.

Beowulf stands out for its medical community, but otherwise, it's still a massively populated, very wealthy, well-established, and independent minded star system. Expectations ought to be pitched with that in mind.


I believe a wild guess can be based on Task Force Hancock's screening elements. TF-H had roughly 40 wallers and to go with them they had:
16 Battlecruisers
16 Heavy Cruisers
(30-60)Two flotillas plus extra of Light Cruisers
(32+) A destroyer flotilla plus extra
Unknown numbers and qualities of fortresses and LACs.

Plus-or-minus those numbers by 50% to account for reduced or additional operational needs.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by JeffEngel   » Sun Dec 20, 2015 6:40 pm

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munroburton wrote:
JeffEngel wrote:I suppose if you are less concerned about deaths and more concerned about making it look like some sort of deliberate move on some SLN officer's part, the missiles would be fired with normal parameters - get near and fire off laserheads - and nominally at stations, bases and fortresses near Beowulf. That could account for 10m casualties and not far more - there are almost certainly going to be some laserheads that discharge into the atmosphere or surface without those being the actual target. (And the debris from the orbital targets will still be going places, sometimes down.) The BSDF may not be in the best position to stop those missiles either, if it is going out to meet the hundreds of SLN "observer" wallers, leaving just close-in defenses to fend off a surprise attack.

That kind of attack could look like "just" an attack on Beowulf's orbital infrastructure and bases/fortresses, the sort of thing that's not an EE violation but too close for comfort for responsible navies. It could smear the SLN's reputation (even with itself; they're not monsters) without sending up red flags about nanotech mind control for everyone.

It would take someone with a known, prepared simple combination of movements to execute, like Daniels and the use-or-lose missile pod flush. I wouldn't think that an ops or tactical officer would be ready with such a combination for an attack on Beowulf or the orbital targets though. It would more likely take creative reprogramming on the missile or tactical computer end, possibly triggered by some human input that may itself have some nanotech influence.


Well, if the GA has stealthed LACs in position to intercept a missile storm directed at Beowulf, they could clear quite a few of the potential leakers.
Could be, and if. Same would go for cruisers/destroyers laying around with impellers barely on. There may be questions about getting them into that position and keeping them there without being in the wrong position or leaving the impression afterward that they were leaning on Beowulf.
There's no guarantee any of the missiles will hit(or miss) densely inhabited locations. That part will be randomised, like the debris during the Yawata Strike.
If it's meant as a plausible smear by the Alignment of the SLN, plus optional Beowulf deaths, there's no guarantee needed. Just that kind of attack showing a reckless disregard for life by the SLN would be exactly the point; the deaths are a nice extra from their POV. We know RFC is planning on some 10 million dead there; how, we do not know, and there's no guarantee that they're intended by anyone in-universe either.

Given how jittery most officers seem to get when missiles are aimed anywhere close to a planet(even and especially one that isn't their own), I think it's frightengly easy to make missiles go for a planet strike. There isn't a hardwired inhibiton(because then enemy ECM starts making themselves look like planets) and even if there is, it wouldn't prevent a kinetic impact.
If the missiles are meant to drop the laserheads and detonate at a stand-off range against their target, they're not slamming into the planet even if the planet has been picked as their target. They're pumping lasers into it - fortunately, since the missile really could slam into a planet and would do so much more in that case. Kinetic impacts from a missile against a planet are going to be indirect ones, from debris, or much worse than 10 million dead.

Also, the jitters are from the threat of the SLN and from not being sociopaths or fanatics contemplating millions dead outside the customs of war. The former motivation wouldn't be a problem for the SLN, which may make an Alignment-caused "oops" there something people could believe: they "only" have to think that the SLN does have sociopathic tac officers or reckless ones.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by Fox2!   » Sun Dec 20, 2015 10:23 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:
Actually, we don't have any real knowledge that Beowulf is that far ahead of Mesa in any area of technology. Chapter 56 of CoS states specifically that Mesa Genetic Consultancy, for example, provides the same services as Beowulf, and is, in some cases, even better.


The areas where MGC beats the Beowulf genetics consultants are places where the Beowolfers don't want to go, IIRC.
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