Detecting a Fleet

SharkHunter wrote:Here's an interesting thought though. Using the Sol system and some of the drawn diagrams of the Manticore system, etc. as prototypes... and an astral "fact".

In order to successfully attack and reach the orbitals of Sol, for example, to a certain extent you're not going to be able to get any force advantage based on surprise by coming in on the other side of the star system, etc. So most fleets and all SDM armed combatants come in at the minimum safe approach distance to the planet that isn't absolutely predictable.

Seed the asteroid belts within the appropriate ranges with towed but unfired up ghost-rider FTL recon drones. Designed to launch and follow that enemy fleet in upon arrival. About the time they finish deploying pods, a certain percentage go 500M-Ton ker-blooey to take out said pods, and the rest to "light 'em up, buoys!". Thoughts?

The asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter is not like what most people consider an asteroid belt (like in Star Wars). The distance between asteroids is pretty big.

NASA Discovery Program wrote:Asteroids vary greatly in size, from small boulders to hundreds of miles in diameter. The asteroid belt contains more than 200 asteroids larger than 60 miles wide. Scientists estimate that there are more than 750,000 asteroids in the belt wider than 3/5 mile. There are millions of smaller asteroids. The average distance between asteroids in the main belt is about 600,000 miles.
http://discovery.nasa.gov/SmallWorlds/mars2.cfml

Six hundred thousand miles is a little over 3 light seconds. For contrast the Moon is only 1.3 light seconds from Earth. An asteroid would be a handy framework for putting the equipment to support the drones on while waiting for the drones to be deployed, but to a fleet moving through the belt, it's not like they have to weave in and out of asteroids or that the asteroids provide much cover.

The E wrote:Consider that no attacker is obligated to actually pass through the belt on the way to the planet and (in Sol's case) has a 21 lightminute diameter sphere on which he can enter realspace, the chance that a useful number of drones will be in range of the attacker is minuscule.

If I were tasked with attacking a system, the first question I'd ask is what defense are likely to be deployed and how can I avoid them. I know that a "polar approach" 90 degrees from the plane of the ecliptic is the least likely to have sensors or mines, so I'm starting my attack plan with that.

As a defender, how do I define "most likely line of approach?" All I have is a 21 LM sphere I know an enemy won't emerge from hyper inside. I can't guarantee that an enemy will emerge on or near that sphere, or even that he'll emerge close enough to detect.

I can't guarantee that an enemy will emerge on or near that sphere, or even that he'll emerge close enough to detect.

If the system has a full-suite of sensors, then it's reasonable that a known enemy will emerge close enough to detect the hyper footprint, if not the wedges of the attacking ships. Jumping in too far out increases the chances of ambush or of their absence being noticed and taken advantage of.

noblehunter wrote:

I can't guarantee that an enemy will emerge on or near that sphere, or even that he'll emerge close enough to detect.

If the system has a full-suite of sensors, then it's reasonable that a known enemy will emerge close enough to detect the hyper footprint, ...

If the enemy was "reasonable" then he wouldn't be the enemy.

A reasonable expectation is NOT a guarantee.

Weird Harold wrote:If the enemy was "reasonable" then he wouldn't be the enemy.

A reasonable expectation is NOT a guarantee.

Not a guarantee, no, but it's also not a good idea to send a battle fleet into deep space for months at a time on strict emissions control. The only reason the MAlign got away with that is no one knew to look for the fleet where it used to be or where it was.

noblehunter wrote:The only reason the MAlign got away with that is no one knew to look for the fleet where it used to be or where it was.

The MAlign isn't the only force to drop out of hyper at long range and make a weeks-long ballistic approach. It's been done with LACs (Tremaine) and it's been done, with a polar approach, by a full task force. (Tourville)

The detection blindness can work the other way too as the attacking fleet may have little or no update deployment intel of the defending fleet and drop back in to real space at the worst possible spot to do so.

Both sides are looking to pot themselves in the position that will offer them the widest possible menu of attack/defend options to choose from.

--snipping--

Weird Harold wrote:If I were tasked with attacking a system, the first question I'd ask is what defense are likely to be deployed and how can I avoid them. I know that a "polar approach" 90 degrees from the plane of the ecliptic is the least likely to have sensors or mines, so I'm starting my attack plan with that.

Yes and no. In a newer, less defended or Verge system, etc. perhaps, but you can bet that Manticore, etc. also make it a priority to monitor enough of the star-polar approaches enough to pick up an attacking fleet's gravitic emissions when the cross the hyper wall.

Secondarily, the problem with the polar approach in the FTL/MDM era is distance -- given that planets tend to align on the ecliptic, any other approach adds distance and therefore response time to a defending fleet, simple Pythagorean math will prove it. So while you might carry as much velocity over the hyper wall to try to get in quicker, you've still got to cross a lot of space with an overwhelming force to take out a moderate defensive force. Same thing for coming in "other side of the ecliptic/behind a gas giant, etc.

Once sensor coverage is adequately established, for an attacker there's no useful sneaks available in a short term battle space/period of time. That's where misdirection and astral trickery come into play.