Speculation on the next in the Safehold series

Peter2 wrote: Improvements in stealth and probably also in sensor technologies would therefore be needed, which would require somebody to make them, and the question is who. Merlin and Owl have shown no signs of any ability to carry out original research, and nobody else alive has any grounding in electronics.
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Except those countless years of cyber research OWL put in to develop the tech necessary to make the PICA Nimue is in now.

Isilith wrote:

cnrd22 wrote:Given that the next book is the last in the current arc with the next arc starting a few decades later, I see the following:........

When was this confirmed? The last I read said we could be in for 1 OR 2 more in this arc. And that is without the mad genius going on a word binge and increasing that.

Check out the Thread: Weber's 2015 National Book Festival Talk Up. RFC himself said it was one more book after HFQ to wrap up the arc.

I agree with a lot but not all of what cnrd22 wrote. In the next book (We're Marching to Zion?), like cnrd22, I expect:

- The Harchong army is defeated. Merlin will use information collected by SNARKS to help EoC and RoS commanders plan set piece battles using their vast artillery superiority much like German/Austro-Hungarian forces under von Mackensen's did against the Russian Army in 1915. This does not prevent local tactical defeats of EoC and RoS forces by Harchong forces using different weapon systems like the rockets discussed in HFQ.

- Baron Green Valley's army will enter the border states defeating Temple Guard forces in his way and start to close in on the City of Zion and the Temple. This may or may not include an amphibious assault on the City of Zion and the temple.

- When that happens there will be a very bloody internal Go4 power struggle. Duchairn emerges using his popularity and social services network when an unhinged Clyntahn is killed. (Possibly after Magwair and Trynair's deaths.)

- Duchairn arranges a truce (like the 1555 Peace of Augsburg) where the leader of each country has the right to choose its religion (Temple, Reformed, or CoC) coupled with some official toleration for the other two main religious themes. While the butchers bill for the EoC and the RoS is nowhere near as large as it is for Temple aligned forces, the smaller population size of these two political powers will require them to take a strategic pause.

- Behind the scenes the various bad guys of the next story arc accept this for now to regroup and get even with the EoC in technology but prepare to strike when the time is right.

Where I differ is in the following areas:

- I think that the remnants of the Harchong Army will go home and start a revolution. This will vaguely resemble what happened in Russia in 1918-1921. This will result in South Harchong splitting off from the rest of the Harchong Empire. Don't know if it will be as bad as China in the 1910-1950 era after the Manchu's fell with the various warlords of not.

- Dohlar will split off from the Temple alliance. This may happen before or after the Grand Duchy of Silkiah is absorbed into the RoS. The pigeon king will be disposed and a regency council established.

- The kingdoms of Sodar and Delferahk and the Desnairian Empire will be in conflict with each other as the Desnairian Empire attempts to regain its status by taking bites out of the two kingdoms and whatever is the ruling form of government in South Harchong.

- Tensions between the remaining Harchong Empire and the breakaway new Harchong state will resemble France and Germany from 1871 to 1914 over Alsace-Lorraine or the UK and US between roughly 1782 and 1815. This will bring on a rearmament program that will threaten the EoC's domination of the seas. This tension between West Haven and the various countries in Howard will precipitate the next war, especially when coupled with the great reveal.

- I don't think that this new "Peace of Augsburg" will allow the CoC access to the Temple. This means that "Big Brother" under the temple will remain a suspense point as the next story arc begins.

I think that the end of the current cycle will bear a lot more resemblence to Berlin in 1945 than to Augsburg in 1555. Zion better pray that the Siddarmarkians don't cross the city limits playing "The Pikes of Kolstyr."

Don

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Annachie wrote:I'm wondering if Merlin will survive to the next series. Not that anything can hurt him. I wonder if he'll shut himself down and allow a fresh Nimue to take over for the next war.


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Merline is a Time Lord! Who will the 2nd Merlin be!

ericth wrote:
Merline is a Time Lord! Who will the 2nd Merlin be!

That is a good question and "time lord" is not a bad way of stating it. I expect that Merlin or some incarnation of him will be around for the long haul until the confrontation with the Gbaba. If I'm right, then he is going to have to age and then "die" to come back in a new form... maybe not as a seijin next time.

It will be interesting to see how RFC works it out.

Don

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The urgency of attacking the OBS depends on how it is controlled and that is unknown. Worst case ,Rayno walks in one day and says "Hey boss, you'll never guess what my assistant Hermione found in the library", and hands him a copy of Rakurai for Dummies. That "one day" could be tomorrow. If it's on automatic, we don't know whether it's approaching a threshold.

Like Smaug, it can't be taken for granted even in the short term.

The huge missing piece isn't weaponry, it's Intel. Before attacking something like that you have to be sure of putting it out of action. Merlin tri3ed and failed to do reconnaissance on it.

Expert snuggler wrote:The urgency of attacking the OBS depends on how it is controlled and that is unknown. Worst case ,Rayno walks in one day and says "Hey boss, you'll never guess what my assistant Hermione found in the library", and hands him a copy of Rakurai for Dummies. That "one day" could be tomorrow. If it's on automatic, we don't know whether it's approaching a threshold.

Like Smaug, it can't be taken for granted even in the short term.

The huge missing piece isn't weaponry, it's Intel. Before attacking something like that you have to be sure of putting it out of action. Merlin tri3ed and failed to do reconnaissance on it.

Cogently argued. What we have for textev though suggests that if there is a threshhold to provoke the thing, it has to do with violating the proscriptions. That seems to be the underlying assumption every time the subject has come up. If it turns out differently it will be an unexpected twist in plot.

In the short term, there is nothing they can do about it. In the intermediate to long term, something will be figured out.

As for the Rakurai for Dummies scenario, I doubt it. But I guess we'll see.

Don

Expert snuggler wrote:The urgency of attacking the OBS depends on how it is controlled and that is unknown. Worst case ,Rayno walks in one day and says "Hey boss, you'll never guess what my assistant Hermione found in the library", and hands him a copy of Rakurai for Dummies. That "one day" could be tomorrow. If it's on automatic, we don't know whether it's approaching a threshold.

Like Smaug, it can't be taken for granted even in the short term.

The huge missing piece isn't weaponry, it's Intel. Before attacking something like that you have to be sure of putting it out of action. Merlin tri3ed and failed to do reconnaissance on it.

I'm sure they will do their best, but there are few certainties in war.

Trying to switch it off isn't necessarily any safer-
Deactivate OBS, computer
Please enter command override code
Err
Please enter command override code
Umm
Entering intrusion prevention AI directed bombardment mode in 20 seconds Please enter command override code. 19, 18 ...

Doing nothing about the OBS isn't an option, either. So sometime, somehow they are going to have to take the risk of trying to end the threat.

Isilith wrote:

Peter2 wrote: Improvements in stealth and probably also in sensor technologies would therefore be needed, which would require somebody to make them, and the question is who. Merlin and Owl have shown no signs of any ability to carry out original research, and nobody else alive has any grounding in electronics.
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Except those countless years of cyber research OWL put in to develop the tech necessary to make the PICA Nimue is in now.

That's why I put original research. The processes and techniques for making a PICA are known, as witness Merlin. "All" (ahem!) Owl had to do was find them, assay his resources, and implement the processes to turn the resources into the PICA by using known techniques, making whatever was needed along the way and omitting the subroutines involving the time limit for a PICA in independent mode. That's probably a big complex job, and looking up how to do it would involve Owl searching the files of data that "he" holds. That could be described as research, but where we differ is that in my opinion that does not constitute original research — sorry! Original means something new, and that wasn't.
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