Speculation on the next in the Safehold series

n7axw wrote:

Randomiser wrote:
They don't necessarily need better stealth, just a platform with better survivability and bigger 'guns' than the remote previously used; something designed for combat rather than stealthy reconnaisance perhaps, or maybe many more of them, or who knows what? I find it hard to believe that a TF dreadnought or two couldn't take down a relatively fixed orbital planetary bombardment system. In that sense the Good Guys(tm) don't need to do original research, just some engineering to find a way of applying known principles to this situation. (A bit like building a PICA without the ten day limit) Perhaps 'surely' in my previous post was a mite strong, but it has to be within the bounds of reasonable possibility. Especially given how limited OWL was at the time it was asked about tackling the OBS.

Yeah. A couple of months devoted to the problem in compressed time now that he's self aware could make a real difference in defining the perameters of the problem along with coming up with an inventory of resources needed to deal with it.

When I looked at that paragraph in OAR where Owl tells Merlin that nothing he has on hand can penetrate the OBS's defenses, there was nothing that precluded a future solution--only that it couldn't be done at that moment in time.

Then, too, consider that Owl is a tactical AI. That could put him a leg up on finding a solution.

Don

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Maybe I didn’t make my points too well. Thomas Edison famously said that genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration. I completely agree with you that compressed time and so on is a great starter for the 99% perspiration, but you still need the 1% inspiration to set the process off, and I have doubts that that could come from a machine.

Moreover, compressed time experimentation is basically a form of mathematical modelling, and I can assure you that mathematical modelling can only take you so far. There is a difference between virtual reality and the real thing and mathematical models need to be verified in real life. As an example, ask yourself how accurate is your local weather forecast? I’ll guarantee it’s wrong part of the time, and they’ve been trying to model that for years. Where mathematical models are invaluable is in pointing out the best places to start looking for answers, but the final answers have to come from actual experiments.

Lastly, I fully accept that something could be made which would blow an OBS system apart, but I cannot see how can one could be made, got into orbit, and used effectively without electronics and electricity for the control systems. Possibly known technology would suffice to do that. But if new inventions and developments need to be made in those areas, unless I misunderstand the situation on Safehold, the OBS system is likely to terminate the experiments with extreme prejudice as soon as the radiation signature of the necessary research becomes sufficiently obvious.
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Simple, you do not build what is needed to take out the OBS on Safehold. You have two choices how to deal with it.

a) Get control of it. The assumption seems to be that the control system is in the Temple, but that is not necessarily a good assumption. Alternatively, the visit in twenty years may give you information about where it is controlled.

b) Build something to destroy it. This could be done with a bootstrap industrial module + dedicated AI in the asteroid belt (if the system has one, I cannot remember if there is text evidence for this), or on a moon. Basically, put it someplace the OBS is not looking. Which does bring up the question - just how far does the surveillance extend?

Peter2, (See his post 2 above this) we seem to be looking at this quite differently and maybe I'm not being clear either.

I'm assuming that the TF had weapons systems which could take down a hostile orbital system like the OBS. Given the purpose of Nimue's cave and who set it up, I assume OWL has practically complete data on the science and engineering behind those weapons. Thus there is no need to do any research into fundamental principles or to create new science which might require genius and vision. What is required is some applied engineering to work out how to build the tools and gather the resources to harness existing TF knowledge and techniques.

Neither Narmahn nor Nimue are quite machines and would not be subject to the kind of limitations you assume for AIs in any case.

Of course it's going to need electricity and electronics, so I certainly never suggested building the thing out where the OBS could spot it. I was really thinking that most of it could be done several miles under a mountain made of iron ore where the OBS' sensors can't penetrate, i.e. in the Cave, enlarged as required. As for getting it into space, it may be that its first flight will have to be the time it takes the OBS out. More likely it can be made to take advantage of the exemption the skimmers and the airtrucks seem to enjoy. If necessary they can get bits out stealthily and assemble them well out in space. There is no evidence the OBS was designed to throw projectiles all over the system, it was designed to keep order on Safehold.

evilauthor wrote:

n7axw wrote:Yeah. A couple of months devoted to the problem in compressed time now that he's self aware could make a real difference in defining the perameters of the problem along with coming up with an inventory of resources needed to deal with it.

The problem with this of course is that most of OWL's processing power is already tied up monitoring everything going on on Safehold.

I suppose there's nothing stopping OWL from "expanding" by building additional computers to expand his processing capacity. But I suspect if he did so, all that expanded capacity would just go to doing more monitoring and analysis of current events on Safehold instead of working on the OBS issue.

And of course, someone has to come up with the idea of building additional "OWLs"...

He did find the compressed time for figuring out how to build a PICA...

The OBS doesn't have to be an immediate priority. We've got a while before the politics of violating the proscriptions are neutralized. Then too, Nahrman is there keeping track of things. I suspect that when the matter becomes critical, Owl will be available to do the job...

Don

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Randomiser wrote:Peter2, (See his post 2 above this) we seem to be looking at this quite differently and maybe I'm not being clear either.

I'm assuming that the TF had weapons systems which could take down a hostile orbital system like the OBS. Given the purpose of Nimue's cave and who set it up, I assume OWL has practically complete data on the science and engineering behind those weapons. Thus there is no need to do any research into fundamental principles or to create new science which might require genius and vision. What is required is some applied engineering to work out how to build the tools and gather the resources to harness existing TF knowledge and techniques.

Neither Narmahn nor Nimue are quite machines and would not be subject to the kind of limitations you assume for AIs in any case.

Of course it's going to need electricity and electronics, so I certainly never suggested building the thing out where the OBS could spot it. I was really thinking that most of it could be done several miles under a mountain made of iron ore where the OBS' sensors can't penetrate, i.e. in the Cave, enlarged as required. As for getting it into space, it may be that its first flight will have to be the time it takes the OBS out. More likely it can be made to take advantage of the exemption the skimmers and the airtrucks seem to enjoy. If necessary they can get bits out stealthily and assemble them well out in space. There is no evidence the OBS was designed to throw projectiles all over the system, it was designed to keep order on Safehold.

I certainly take your points there, Randomiser. I rather assumed that if this had been possible with the resources at hand, Merlin would already have done it, or would have at least suggested it. This led me to suspect that there were some problems in doing this, possibly either lack of knowledge, or lack of resources. About the latter, I was thinking of Owl's comment about the option of making more PICA bodies, that there were insufficient stocks of some of the resources. (I can't off-hand remember what these were.)

Peter2 wrote:
I certainly take your points there, Randomiser. I rather assumed that if this had been possible with the resources at hand, Merlin would already have done it, or would have at least suggested it. This led me to suspect that there were some problems in doing this, possibly either lack of knowledge, or lack of resources. About the latter, I was thinking of Owl's comment about the option of making more PICA bodies, that there were insufficient stocks of some of the resources. (I can't off-hand remember what these were.)

You can't remember because RFC carefully didn't specify.

You may also be right. However, there have been other things that they worked out when they got round to thinking about them properly.(Nimue and Olivia's 'adult' VR suit come to mind.) I'm just thinking it's lack of focus due to other priorities in the middle of a war and possibly even a lead time of the order of 10 years, which is preventing them from addressing the OBS at the moment.

Randomiser wrote:You can't remember because RFC carefully didn't specify.

The only thing specified was that stocks of unspecified elements would become critically low (ie, below prescribed minimums) if a PICA were built.

Given that Safehold obviously has plenty of common elements like silicon, oxygen, etc etc, I can only assume that the elements in question are the kind of rare earth elements that aren't commonly found on Safehold but are useful in building high tech components. Modern electronics use things like Yttrium and I can only imagine that the Federation technology with asteroid extraction industries and access to asteroids rich in rare earth elements would use even more of it.

Hildum wrote:Simple, you do not build what is needed to take out the OBS on Safehold. You have two choices how to deal with it.

a) Get control of it. The assumption seems to be that the control system is in the Temple, but that is not necessarily a good assumption. Alternatively, the visit in twenty years may give you information about where it is controlled.

b) Build something to destroy it. This could be done with a bootstrap industrial module + dedicated AI in the asteroid belt (if the system has one, I cannot remember if there is text evidence for this), or on a moon. Basically, put it someplace the OBS is not looking. Which does bring up the question - just how far does the surveillance extend?

I have wondered for a while (since OAR, actually) why Nimue/Merlin didn't order OWL to start building a ship of sufficient size and capacity (a DD, for example) adjacent to Nimue's cave inside the mountain. It might take 20, 30, or 40 years, and might require stealthy mining of critical components, but it seems to me that given enough time, OWL should be able to build a naval vessel capable of destroying the ORBS.

For that matter, has OWL built vest-pocket nuke armed SAMs to interdict incoming rocks? Even that seems possible, although it would definitely be a last-ditch defense.

-- Bob G

BobG wrote:

Hildum wrote:Simple, you do not build what is needed to take out the OBS on Safehold. You have two choices how to deal with it.

a) Get control of it. The assumption seems to be that the control system is in the Temple, but that is not necessarily a good assumption. Alternatively, the visit in twenty years may give you information about where it is controlled.

b) Build something to destroy it. This could be done with a bootstrap industrial module + dedicated AI in the asteroid belt (if the system has one, I cannot remember if there is text evidence for this), or on a moon. Basically, put it someplace the OBS is not looking. Which does bring up the question - just how far does the surveillance extend?

I have wondered for a while (since OAR, actually) why Nimue/Merlin didn't order OWL to start building a ship of sufficient size and capacity (a DD, for example) adjacent to Nimue's cave inside the mountain. It might take 20, 30, or 40 years, and might require stealthy mining of critical components, but it seems to me that given enough time, OWL should be able to build a naval vessel capable of destroying the ORBS.

For that matter, has OWL built vest-pocket nuke armed SAMs to interdict incoming rocks? Even that seems possible, although it would definitely be a last-ditch defense.

-- Bob G

I would suppose a number of reasons could exist for that...

First, getting rid of the OBS isn't priority at this point. Safehold's economies are far from absorbing the advantage of steam based tech. So there is no real need to challenge the OBS right now.

Secondly, we really don't know if the needed resources for accomplishing such a project are available. Would those rare elements that Owl was concerned about depleting when he made that PICA be needed for the ship? It's hard to imagine a ship without very capable computers... Would the hull be made out of battlesteel and if so would that be a problem?

Thirdly, Merlin and Owl are heavily involved in a war for survival right now. With all of the surveilance Owl is doing, he probably doesn't have the processing power for such an extensive project at this time.

Finally, I suspect that the hope is that the inner circle is looking forward to getting someone into the Temple basement where they might be able control the OBS, turning it off. How realistic that is, we simply don't know.

I wonder if those assault shuttles in Ninue's cave could get a group of people out beyond the OBS's orbit to establish a fabricating facility on the moon or at some location with access to asteroids... Maybe an assault shuttle could be equipped with weaponry needed to take on the OBS.

Don

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cnrd22 wrote:Given that the next book is the last in the current arc with the next arc starting a few decades later, I see the following:

- the Church is on the verge of losing the war (the Harchong army is defeated/rebels etc), the allies enter the Temple states and close toward Zion

- the unhinged Clyntahn tries to assume supreme command, maybe kills Magwair and Trynair but Duchairn escapes somehow

- Aivah is transported to Zion and dies in a final battle/sacrifice attack taking Clyntahn (and maybe the Inquisition leadership) out

- Duchairn emerges and using his popularity and network takes charge, sues for peace and agrees to reform the Inquisition etc

- a peace like the Augsburg one in the mid 1500's where each state has the right to choose its religion (Temple or the reformed), some toleration etc

- behind the scenes the various bad guys of the next arc accept this for now to regroup and get even with Charis in tech but prepare to strike when the time is right (for example when the Archangels return supposing some of such know about that...)

When was this confirmed? The last I read said we could be in for 1 OR 2 more in this arc. And that is without the mad genius going on a word binge and increasing that.