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(SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.

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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by Tail Twitcher   » Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:26 pm

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Xuan-Wu wrote:What's everyone opinion for the next solarian attack on Beowulf ?

The time line tell us that drone defense system would be operationnal in one to two months.

As the Solarian are not really battle-ready. Their response time to launch this operation (as the operationnal plan was just put in place), plus transit time, I don't see them being capable to succee in this.

Would Mesa involve themself ? For what purpose ?

Would a successfull defense of Beowulf be seen as an attack on solarian suppremacy ? (I think yes)

Would that put more pressure from the solarian on Beowulf ?


Solarians will see a successful or otherwise attack as exactly what they're told to see it as. The mandarins will spin it.

Such large casualities don't suggest either success or failure; out of context it is hard to determine, but planet bombardment in some way seems the only like reason, be it deliberate, or the result of debris due to a miscalucation on someone's part.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by Tail Twitcher   » Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:56 pm

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kzt wrote:
Armed Neo-Bob wrote: But Weber has ships 6 hours out of Manticore (at the MWJ) using regular space instead of hopping into the alpha band and moving to the hyper limit, so it takes all day (19 hours). Probably a reason for that somewhere. . . . . which never needed an infodump till now.

It is explained somewhere. Essentially jumping into the vicinity of the junction is not safe.


Does that mean impossible, or merely not advisable?
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by Rolendargenisae   » Mon Dec 14, 2015 7:10 pm

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Some things to remember is that:
A - Beowolf has ghost rider and system defense pods already.
B - The Manchurians have already decided that directly attacking Beowolf is an infeasible idea.

My personal opinion is that you might see guerilla tactics or a mesan type operation being pulled on Beowolf.

Remember folks, just because they are inept, doesn't mean they are stupid. Nor does it mean that they have no other tools in their bag of goodies to use.

It just means that they can't use a brute force technique to accomplish their goals.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by cthia   » Mon Dec 14, 2015 7:25 pm

cthia
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Tail Twitcher wrote:
Xuan-Wu wrote:What's everyone opinion for the next solarian attack on Beowulf ?

The time line tell us that drone defense system would be operationnal in one to two months.

As the Solarian are not really battle-ready. Their response time to launch this operation (as the operationnal plan was just put in place), plus transit time, I don't see them being capable to succee in this.

Would Mesa involve themself ? For what purpose ?

Would a successfull defense of Beowulf be seen as an attack on solarian suppremacy ? (I think yes)

Would that put more pressure from the solarian on Beowulf ?


Solarians will see a successful or otherwise attack as exactly what they're told to see it as. The mandarins will spin it.

Such large casualities don't suggest either success or failure; out of context it is hard to determine, but planet bombardment in some way seems the only like reason, be it deliberate, or the result of debris due to a miscalucation on someone's part.

I'd edit that thought just a smidgen. 10M Beowulfan casualties does suggest a failure. A catastrophic failure. Someone, and I'm not saying who (but it rhymes with GA) is tasked with protecting these asylum seeking, freedom thinking Beowulfans, now that someone's put the bug to secede in their ear. Just who might be morally tasked with that responsibility of protecting them? The GA!

No, we don't know in what fashion they'll suffer the loss -- be it a planetary bombardment, a massive terrorist strike on planet, a cowardly tampering with the water system or what -- or from whom, the SLN or the MAlign, but we do have it on good authority that the loss will be suffered. And that kind of a loss is massive, and it will be on the GA's hands. Period.

Make no mistake, it most certainly will be a failure. What it most likely won't be, is a defeat -- lest the count would have been much higher. In my... guestimate.

In advance, I beg to differ that it won't be on GA's hands -- at least on their wet pillows at night.

I imagine Honor or her family will lose friends or loved ones amongst that count -- if it's planet based.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by ChronicRder   » Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:27 pm

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I'd edit that thought just a smidgen. 10M Beowulfan casualties does suggest a failure. A catastrophic failure. Someone, and I'm not saying who (but it rhymes with GA) is tasked with protecting these asylum seeking, freedom thinking Beowulfans, now that someone's put the bug to secede in their ear. Just who might be morally tasked with that responsibility of protecting them? The GA!

No, we don't know in what fashion they'll suffer the loss -- be it a planetary bombardment, a massive terrorist strike on planet, a cowardly tampering with the water system or what -- or from whom, the SLN or the MAlign, but we do have it on good authority that the loss will be suffered. And that kind of a loss is massive, and it will be on the GA's hands. Period.

Make no mistake, it most certainly will be a failure. What it most likely won't be, is a defeat -- lest the count would have been much higher. In my... guestimate.

In advance, I beg to differ that it won't be on GA's hands -- at least on their wet pillows at night.

I imagine Honor or her family will lose friends or loved ones amongst that count -- if it's planet based.[/quote]

As Beowulf isn't part of the GA, how would that be the GA's failure to protect them? Honor's family is from there, true, and the SEM welcome asylum seekers from the system, but the system's government hasn't specifically requested military assistance nor signed a formal treaty or even a mutual defense agreement. The failure would rest with the Board of Directors and not the GA.
Sadness on the part of GA officers or Honor's family does not equate to a failure on their part.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Dec 14, 2015 11:26 pm

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Tail Twitcher wrote:
kzt wrote:It is explained somewhere. Essentially jumping into the vicinity of the junction is not safe.


Does that mean impossible, or merely not advisable?
IIRC the resonance zone RZ forms a triangle from the junction to the edges of Manticore A's hyper limit. You can jump out from the RZ at the risk of reduced accuracy and some increased component wear. But attempting to enter N-space within the volume of the RZ is universally fatal.

So jumping in near the Junction is a mostly a question of how certain you are that you're going to miss the RZ. More standoff distance leaves more room for error.


Lesser wormholes have weaker RZ's. Not sure how weak they need to be before attempting to enter N-space within one ceases to be suicidal...
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by cthia   » Tue Dec 15, 2015 3:42 am

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cthia wrote:I'd edit that thought just a smidgen. 10M Beowulfan casualties does suggest a failure. A catastrophic failure. Someone, and I'm not saying who (but it rhymes with GA) is tasked with protecting these asylum seeking, freedom thinking Beowulfans, now that someone's put the bug to secede in their ear. Just who might be morally tasked with that responsibility of protecting them? The GA!

No, we don't know in what fashion they'll suffer the loss -- be it a planetary bombardment, a massive terrorist strike on planet, a cowardly tampering with the water system or what -- or from whom, the SLN or the MAlign, but we do have it on good authority that the loss will be suffered. And that kind of a loss is massive, and it will be on the GA's hands. Period.

Make no mistake, it most certainly will be a failure. What it most likely won't be, is a defeat -- lest the count would have been much higher. In my... guestimate.

In advance, I beg to differ that it won't be on GA's hands -- at least on their wet pillows at night.

I imagine Honor or her family will lose friends or loved ones amongst that count -- if it's planet based.

ChronicRder wrote:As Beowulf isn't part of the GA, how would that be the GA's failure to protect them? Honor's family is from there, true, and the SEM welcome asylum seekers from the system, but the system's government hasn't specifically requested military assistance nor signed a formal treaty or even a mutual defense agreement. The failure would rest with the Board of Directors and not the GA.
Sadness on the part of GA officers or Honor's family does not equate to a failure on their part.

You've fallen prey to this thread's infection and have begun to talk in "delusional technicalities" again. Which will be of little comfort to the surviving families of the dead.

The GA has morally nominated themselves as "de facto guardians," technically an "informal guardianship." The Harrington Plan hinges on what happens at Beowulf. Everyone throughout the galaxy who are blessed with a functioning brain -- at least the size of Young's, Santino's or even Houseman's -- knows that as well and will be watching its outcome with baited breath. Especially the GA, because bait is exactly what they have done to the League when they came out of stealth as accomplices when the SLN were denied transit and thus tipped their hand that they were Beowulf's ace-in-the-hole and partner in crime. Even if it wasn't clearly implied by the previous SLN fleet that was last in-system trying to transit, it also hung in the air like the London fog "We'll be Bach!"

That kind of a butcher's bill is exactly what the GA doesn't want. It could be detrimental to the Harrington Plan. Exactly what the League wants without even being privy to the plan. Because the League's plan is the anti-thesis of the Harrington Plan -- concise, simple and to the point... "Let's nip this secession schit in the bud."

Can you imagine being a system governor trying to rally the civilian troops on your planet who've become privy to Beowulf's loss? If you were a civilian under the same circumstances here on Earth, would you vote to risk the luck of the draw to NOT be amongst the planet-wide casualties of the next 10M hollow-cause rolling your way?

Everyone has known the rules since time immemorial, "If you're going to step in and beat up the big bad bully down the street to protect the little kid in question, then you had better be present for the next encounter."

For you can be sure that the bully knows that the little kid knows that he knows that his guardian angel ain't always gonna be around. And that the next encounter has accrued interest.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by Brigade XO   » Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:17 am

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Exactly how does an EE strike, even "accidental" help the SL's nominal position? I can't imagine even the Mandarins being able to get away with saying "we had to bomb Beowulf to save it".
Setting up the GA to look like it was responsible for a missile strike on the planet would be difficult. At the very least it would involve making it nessisary for GA warships to get into the system and be fireing missiles at someone....what would make them do that? Othen than something like an SL fleet having entered Beowulf's territorial limit -uninvited and having been warned off- with warships to compel Beowulf to do something. Do we see (YET) any opposition group on Beowulf that would be broadcasting or have sent representatives to the SL already claiming that the plebiscite has been rigged and the League Must Send military to "fix" that. Possible but unlikely.
That there are people on Beowulf who don't want to leave the League is a given, there have to be in a population the size of the planet and it's spacebased industry and habitats. That enough of them can make a claim that the vote WILL BE rigged is interesting.
Could the SL get something into Beowulf to cause something like one or more of the explosions on Mesa covering Houdini is certainly possible but time is short and the SL probably doesn't have that kind of direct penetration of Beowulf to organize that. The Alignment might but then you have to somehow involve something claimed to have been done by the GA.
Warships of up to 4 nations (SLN, BSDF, RHN, RMN) in sysetm with military scan working like mad and nobody sees an errent missile- oh, wait, ONLY one SL ships picks one up....sure that is going to be taken as fact.
We don't even yet know what caused the 10 million casualties or where.

It is not an OFS govenor that has to calm his subjects about the possibility of the SLN taking away their freedoms and rights, that has already happened and he is 1st example of that. It is the LEAGUE MEMBER SYSTEMS that have to worry. Just sending a SLN fleet to Beowulf is going to send the absolute wrong message about how much MEMBERS should be worried about the SL Bureaucracy and SLN.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:33 am

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Tail Twitcher wrote:
Xuan-Wu wrote:What's everyone opinion for the next solarian attack on Beowulf ?

The time line tell us that drone defense system would be operationnal in one to two months.

As the Solarian are not really battle-ready. Their response time to launch this operation (as the operationnal plan was just put in place), plus transit time, I don't see them being capable to succee in this.

Would Mesa involve themself ? For what purpose ?

Would a successfull defense of Beowulf be seen as an attack on solarian suppremacy ? (I think yes)


Would that put more pressure from the solarian on Beowulf ?


Solarians will see a successful or otherwise attack as exactly what they're told to see it as. The mandarins will spin it.

Such large casualities don't suggest either success or failure; out of context it is hard to determine, but planet bombardment in some way seems the only like reason, be it deliberate, or the result of debris due to a miscalucation on someone's part.


I agree about the attempt to 'spin it' however, even the Mandarins have to come up with money somewhere to pay for replacement ships and then they need to train the crews and then... unless they are going to hide behind the tech that was used in Operation Oyster Bay and even that will not be as likely to get past the Alliance Navy a second time.

I believe that whatever they may launch against Beowulf will bite them 'in the end' :o
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:44 am

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["Jonathan_S"]["Tail Twitcher"]["kzt"]
It is explained somewhere. Essentially jumping into the vicinity of the junction is not safe.

Does that mean impossible, or merely not advisable?[/quote][/quote]IIRC the resonance zone RZ forms a triangle from the junction to the edges of Manticore A's hyper limit. You can jump out from the RZ at the risk of reduced accuracy and some increased component wear. But attempting to enter N-space within the volume of the RZ is universally fatal.

So jumping in near the Junction is a mostly a question of how certain you are that you're going to miss the RZ. More standoff distance leaves more room for error.


Lesser wormholes have weaker RZ's. Not sure how weak they need to be before attempting to enter N-space within one ceases to be suicidal...

The junction is in a binary star system this would have an amplification effect on the RZ. Didn't one half of the Havanite Navy jump in close to the wormhole at Baslisk? I don't recall why they did not jump right out when the saw they were trapped but they did jump in with the objective to knock out the fort and hold the terminus.
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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