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Is Vicar Trynair really become a nonentity?

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Re: Is Vicar Trynair really become a nonentity?-spoiler
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Dec 09, 2015 4:08 pm

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I don't disagree with you that Traynair is thinking that way. My concern is Rayno. If Traynair is trying to secure a Vicarate that is more amenable to his guidance than Clyntahn's, he can only succeed with Rayno's blessing. Rayno would set up his menu of options to include the small chance Clyntahn has to be removed. The onset of Dialydd Mab and the success of Charis's Siddermark campaign may have expedited those other arrangements.

So Traynair would be planning for a post Jihad CoGA when the Inquisition is less powerful, but Rayno would be factoring Traynair's efforts into his post Jihad menu of options without Clyntahn.

Louis R wrote:If Trynair really is sitting back and calculating coldly - and I remain to be convinced on that score - his calculation is almost certainly still that Clyntahn will win the Jihad. With the Church, and therefore the Vicarate, firmly back on top on Safehold, one of Clyntahn's major props - the fear for their future positions - will evaporate, and the Vicars will realise that the only thing left for them to fear is Fear Himself. At that point, with the Grand Vicar firmly behind him, any move by the Chancellor to arraign the Grand Inquisitor and his senior lieutenants for the multitude of violations of Church law that they have committed, and that he has been rather carefully not pointing out are not excused by the declaration of Jihad, will prove wildly popular in the corridors of power. As a further line in the ledger, he no doubt calculates that Duchairn will go down before the end - and that dealing with his killer will be equally popular in the streets of Zion.

PeterZ wrote:Spoiler Alert

We know that Helm Cleaver is assassinating Vicars who support Clyntahn. We also know that Traynair is a cold blooded and calculating politician. He was the one that arranged for the current Grand Vicar's election. Considering what's on Rohbair's, Allayn's and Clyntahn's plate right now, who is REALLY watching the selection process for the replacement Vicars? I submit that Traynair is keeping to his knitting and focusing on the politics he is so good at. The current reliability of the Vicarage's vote on ANY issue is less locked up than I suspect Clyntahn realizes.

If Clyntahn dies of anything less than a sword thrust through the heart by a wild eyed assassin denouncing God and the Archangels and glorifying the pleasures of drinking the blood of children and virginal maidens in the Place of Martyrs before several thousand witnesses, the Inquisition won't be able to simply take over. They would have to have the Vicarage vote in a Grand Inquisitor to give their continued near absolute power legitimacy. Any action the Inquisition takes that appears to subvert the orthodoxy of centralized CoGA control would convince anyone still on the fence that the jihad and all the atrocities and dislocations associated with it was an error brought on by Clyntahn.

The Inquisition might well retain physical control of Zion if they chose to impose their will, but they would not be able to maintain control over anything outside Zion. The jihad would grind to a halt as the forces in the field would be starved for resources. Eventually, AoG forces loyal to the CoGA would relieve Zion and regain control over the Inquisition.

All told the Inquisition cannot retain power based on their guardianship of orthodoxy unless they submit to the Vicarage for a confirmation vote on Clyntahn's replacement. If they reject a vote, the CoGA would also dissolve into civil war or at least the secular states reclaiming more local autonomy. Enter Traynair. If he selects the right replacements for the assassinated vicars, the vicarage could actually play a game of chicken with the Inquisition. The Inquisition would either submit to the Vicars' vote or have everything fall apart and allow the heretics to enter Zion and kill every Inquisitor they find. If the Inquisition invites that sort of disaster, would any of them find refuge from the heretics hunting them? I submit none would. In such a case the Inquisition would have failed in their guardianship of CoGA orthodoxy. I further Submit that Rayno is not only smart enough to realize these unpalatable possibilities but also a passionate enough believer in orthodoxy to do something to stem the tides pushing Safehold towards those possibilities.

The only way Traynair can manage this is if Rayno allows him to succeed. As I said, something is odd about the way the scenes involving Rayno are written in the books. I don't believe Rayno is actively working with Traynair. I do believe that Traynair is doing what he does best while giving Clyntahn the impression he is cowed.
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Re: Is Vicar Trynair really become a nonentity?
Post by n7axw   » Wed Dec 09, 2015 4:16 pm

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The problem I am having with this is that as things continue to break down, chaos rules. Traynair's whole position depends on such things as order, procedure, etc. which is being eroded from under him. The same, to a somewhat lesser extent, is also true of Duchairn.

Clyntahn, on the other hand, has the advantage of being able to apply immediately available force to the equation. He could indeed take over completely. But I agree that he would not be able to hang on to what he seized for longer than the short term.

Chaos would ultimately devour Clyntahn even as the others. His hold weakens as the inquisition's myth of invincibility continues to crumble.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Is Vicar Trynair really become a nonentity?
Post by Hildum   » Wed Dec 09, 2015 11:07 pm

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n7axw wrote:The problem I am having with this is that as things continue to break down, chaos rules. Traynair's whole position depends on such things as order, procedure, etc. which is being eroded from under him. The same, to a somewhat lesser extent, is also true of Duchairn.


The key difference between the two is Duchiarn has an alternative support network already in place when things go south for the Church. He has the poor population of Zion, who if he can get to them, would certainly hide/help him out.
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Re: Is Vicar Trynair really become a nonentity?
Post by n7axw   » Thu Dec 10, 2015 1:06 am

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Hildum wrote:
n7axw wrote:The problem I am having with this is that as things continue to break down, chaos rules. Traynair's whole position depends on such things as order, procedure, etc. which is being eroded from under him. The same, to a somewhat lesser extent, is also true of Duchairn.


The key difference between the two is Duchiarn has an alternative support network already in place when things go south for the Church. He has the poor population of Zion, who if he can get to them, would certainly hide/help him out.


Yes, it might work out that way although it's a pretty frail reed to plan on. In fact it would have to be spontaneous enough to be a surprise, overwhelming any attempt to counter it. Or Maigwair has the army, but he would have to get to an army, thus escaping Zion. But then the army would have to neutralize its inquisitors to be effective on Maigwair's behalf. That complication makes Maigwair's reed equally frail.

Tranair, on the other hand, has no counter at all, making him the weakest at the moment. The master of the deal has nothing left to deal with.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Is Vicar Trynair really become a nonentity?
Post by SciFi90   » Thu Dec 10, 2015 10:55 pm

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Charybdis wrote:So what are the CONSEQUENCES of Trynair becoming the weakest member of the Gang of Four? Remembering at the beginning he was co-equal to Clyntahn to the point where he forced a Grand Council discussion of Ferayd and the imposition of public penance upon the person of the Grand Inquisitor!

Now he is still Chancellor but almost without any real power. From master manipulator & kingmaker to worse than Maigwair at the start. So, would that make him a contented man OR a cornered rat? What power does he still retain and/or what knowledge of past things would he likely have for revenge? Does he have any dedication to Church Orthodoxy beyond his comfortable life and his fear of the Inquisition?

Is Vicar Zahmsyn Trynair a ticking timebomb? :o

The "penance" imposed on Clyntahn was supported by documentary evidence from Inquisitors present at the scene. Since then, Clyntahn has steadily used his authority to limit that of Trynair and Magwair; even inquisitors cannot alter the mathematical evidence of Duchairn. It would be intriguing to see how Mr. Weber would handle a pronouncement from the Grand Vicar (at Trynair's instigation) limiting Clyntahn's authority. (Just imagine Clyntahn "finding" that the supreme Vicar, who purports to speak with the authority of Langhorne and God), is in violation of Church Doctrine!) Mr. Weber has left himself a great many paths down which to send the series.
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Re: Is Vicar Trynair really become a nonentity?
Post by SciFi90   » Thu Dec 10, 2015 11:21 pm

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martin wrote:I do wonder what the temple guard would do if 3 of the group of 4 and the grand vicar all turned on Clyntahn. Especially after some notable defeat that was his fault (again!) or proof of his lying (again!).
But I don't think that's the way Mr Weber is going with this.

Clyntahn carefully placed armed inquisitors in Zion. Those with the field armies may face revolts from commanders who refuse to stupid, foolish or impractical orders to adopt military actions. (Such priests would be likely to "die in combat."). Any defeat or disaster would be blamed on a lack of faith or obedience to God, as given by Clyntahn from his safe office in Zion. Mr. Weber seems to have given Clyntahn's character a desire for power over everything on Safehold, especially that part controlled by the Church. In effect, Mr. Weber has described Clyntahn as one who believes he speaks for God, and any opposition or dissenters speak for Shan-Wei.
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Re: Is Vicar Trynair really become a nonentity?
Post by SciFi90   » Thu Dec 10, 2015 11:27 pm

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Charybdis wrote:
NinaKatarina wrote:I'd love to see some sort of Emperor of Japan parallel with the Grand Vicar. The generals were running the war and more or less ignoring him, forgetting that he still had huge power in the eyes of the common folk. So, when the emperor surrendered, they realized that he was not so powerless after all and they were forced to follow.

Interesting comparison but you are comparing two different technology eras that forecloses the ability of the Grand Vicar / Trynair to do that end-run! Hirohito was able to seize an opportunity to record (on an actual record) his surrender command for nation-wide broadcast by radio. Even this was a close-run thing as there was considerable effort by 'Young Turk' officers of the IJA to place him under Army-controlled house arrest.

The Grand Vicar Erek XVII is much more like the Emperor of the Japan Shogunate Era, a proclamation-issuing figurehead, controlled by his 'advisors' and without any real voice of his own. Besides, lacking an instant communication method, what could he accomplish? Hirohito had the advantage of having been seen in movie newsreels and heard on previous radio addresses. The Grand Vicar had a title and a throne but otherwise no-one really had heard him or seen much of him. ;)

Mr. Weber would really have fun if he had Clyntahn seize Trynair and the Grand Vicar in ground of blasphemy and/or opposition to the Will of God, as declared by Clyntahn as caretaker of the faith through the Inquisition. The possible repercussions would be nearly infinite.
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Re: Is Vicar Trynair really become a nonentity?
Post by SciFi90   » Thu Dec 10, 2015 11:31 pm

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Charybdis wrote:
NinaKatarina wrote:I'd love to see some sort of Emperor of Japan parallel with the Grand Vicar. The generals were running the war and more or less ignoring him, forgetting that he still had huge power in the eyes of the common folk. So, when the emperor surrendered, they realized that he was not so powerless after all and they were forced to follow.

Interesting comparison but you are comparing two different technology eras that forecloses the ability of the Grand Vicar / Trynair to do that end-run! Hirohito was able to seize an opportunity to record (on an actual record) his surrender command for nation-wide broadcast by radio. Even this was a close-run thing as there was considerable effort by 'Young Turk' officers of the IJA to place him under Army-controlled house arrest.

The Grand Vicar Erek XVII is much more like the Emperor of the Japan Shogunate Era, a proclamation-issuing figurehead, controlled by his 'advisors' and without any real voice of his own. Besides, lacking an instant communication method, what could he accomplish? Hirohito had the advantage of having been seen in movie newsreels and heard on previous radio addresses. The Grand Vicar had a title and a throne but otherwise no-one really had heard him or seen much of him. ;)

It might be more simply done by writing that Clyntahn has seized the person of the Grand Vicar, and issues orders in his name. Opposition from Trynair might be suppressed by Inquisitors.
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