So Traynair would be planning for a post Jihad CoGA when the Inquisition is less powerful, but Rayno would be factoring Traynair's efforts into his post Jihad menu of options without Clyntahn.
Louis R wrote:If Trynair really is sitting back and calculating coldly - and I remain to be convinced on that score - his calculation is almost certainly still that Clyntahn will win the Jihad. With the Church, and therefore the Vicarate, firmly back on top on Safehold, one of Clyntahn's major props - the fear for their future positions - will evaporate, and the Vicars will realise that the only thing left for them to fear is Fear Himself. At that point, with the Grand Vicar firmly behind him, any move by the Chancellor to arraign the Grand Inquisitor and his senior lieutenants for the multitude of violations of Church law that they have committed, and that he has been rather carefully not pointing out are not excused by the declaration of Jihad, will prove wildly popular in the corridors of power. As a further line in the ledger, he no doubt calculates that Duchairn will go down before the end - and that dealing with his killer will be equally popular in the streets of Zion.PeterZ wrote:Spoiler Alert
We know that Helm Cleaver is assassinating Vicars who support Clyntahn. We also know that Traynair is a cold blooded and calculating politician. He was the one that arranged for the current Grand Vicar's election. Considering what's on Rohbair's, Allayn's and Clyntahn's plate right now, who is REALLY watching the selection process for the replacement Vicars? I submit that Traynair is keeping to his knitting and focusing on the politics he is so good at. The current reliability of the Vicarage's vote on ANY issue is less locked up than I suspect Clyntahn realizes.
If Clyntahn dies of anything less than a sword thrust through the heart by a wild eyed assassin denouncing God and the Archangels and glorifying the pleasures of drinking the blood of children and virginal maidens in the Place of Martyrs before several thousand witnesses, the Inquisition won't be able to simply take over. They would have to have the Vicarage vote in a Grand Inquisitor to give their continued near absolute power legitimacy. Any action the Inquisition takes that appears to subvert the orthodoxy of centralized CoGA control would convince anyone still on the fence that the jihad and all the atrocities and dislocations associated with it was an error brought on by Clyntahn.
The Inquisition might well retain physical control of Zion if they chose to impose their will, but they would not be able to maintain control over anything outside Zion. The jihad would grind to a halt as the forces in the field would be starved for resources. Eventually, AoG forces loyal to the CoGA would relieve Zion and regain control over the Inquisition.
All told the Inquisition cannot retain power based on their guardianship of orthodoxy unless they submit to the Vicarage for a confirmation vote on Clyntahn's replacement. If they reject a vote, the CoGA would also dissolve into civil war or at least the secular states reclaiming more local autonomy. Enter Traynair. If he selects the right replacements for the assassinated vicars, the vicarage could actually play a game of chicken with the Inquisition. The Inquisition would either submit to the Vicars' vote or have everything fall apart and allow the heretics to enter Zion and kill every Inquisitor they find. If the Inquisition invites that sort of disaster, would any of them find refuge from the heretics hunting them? I submit none would. In such a case the Inquisition would have failed in their guardianship of CoGA orthodoxy. I further Submit that Rayno is not only smart enough to realize these unpalatable possibilities but also a passionate enough believer in orthodoxy to do something to stem the tides pushing Safehold towards those possibilities.
The only way Traynair can manage this is if Rayno allows him to succeed. As I said, something is odd about the way the scenes involving Rayno are written in the books. I don't believe Rayno is actively working with Traynair. I do believe that Traynair is doing what he does best while giving Clyntahn the impression he is cowed.
