How To Convert entire populace

I have the impression from Himself's remarks that Siddarmark didn't so much expand as coalesce. Possibly, the core Republic was formed by the union of Old & New Provinces, and others joined in when they saw the idea was working. However, I think it more likely that the core was larger and came together very, very quickly. [Old & New being the simply the 2 parts of the largest of the core states] Since then, the Republic has expanded by the settlement, consecration and incorporation of previously empty territory - the process we see half-complete in the South March today. What the core was there's not much evidence for, but from the names I'm guessing the area east of the various mountains, from north of what's now Southguard up to Rollings.

The conflict with Desnair didn't start until the Silk Towners showed a preference for sailing east across the Gulf of Mathyas to the then-new provinces of Trokhanos and Mallitar, rather than south into the Gulf of Jahras. That was relatively late in the development of the Republic.

n7axw wrote:As for Safehold I wonder how much Siddarmark's expansion had to do with Desnairian agression once the Republic had those formidable pike blocks. I have an impression of much of the conflict in those wars happened as Siddarmark begin pushing back, first expelling the Desnairians back out of Siddarmark and then into more neutral ground as the wars proceeded before the matter was brought to a conclusion by the Treaty of Silktown which the church created as a buffer state between the two opponents.

Don

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n7axw wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:I think Siddarmark's expansion may have owed a lot more, early on, to the threat of Desnairian expansion north of the isthmus, or (to a lesser extent) Dohlaran expansion or the conversion of mid-continent small republics into monarchical Border States. Those early enclaves could see empires growing to the south and west, and Dohlar could have been a nucleus for another of them. Under those circumstances, you had to group up to be safe, and Siddarmark's republican system gave them something to group into that would be more compatible with their way of life. They were probably taking a long view, but in the shorter one, a larger unified state would have advantages for trade and law enforcement.

Silk Town - or proto-Silkiah, taking it along with its hinterlands - would have been much the same, only larger and with a lot of commerce, but for the misfortune of being too close to Desnair when the Church's willingness to see a sprawling republican empire ran out.

From RFC's post back when, much of the Siddarmark/Desnairian conflict was over Silk Town and its surroundings and which of them would have how much influence over it. Further inland and to the north, there wasn't then and still isn't much to fight over in terms of populated, terraformed regions. To the extent it was about land, it was a struggle for a frontier and strategic places for a border.

I think your point here gloves into mine... All I'm really saying is that the trigger for Siddarmark's push to the west was the threat from Desnair. I'm not sure that Dohlar ever figured in. I don't see any basis for that conjecture, anyway.

Don

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n7axw wrote:I think your point here gloves into mine... All I'm really saying is that the trigger for Siddarmark's push to the west was the threat from Desnair. I'm not sure that Dohlar ever figured in. I don't see any basis for that conjecture, anyway.

Don

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I don't think Dohlar was high on the list of worries, but with Harchong and Desnair growing as empires, other states had to consider growing, uniting, or getting stepped on. If Dohlar's rulers felt it had to grow - or used that as an excuse for aggrandizement - it'd've been a threat, and the Siddarmarkers-to-be in that region may have been thinking about what Dohlaran rulers would have to do to consider themselves safe from being Desnairian targets.

As it happens, Desnairian and Harchongese expansion has left Dohlar, Delferahk, and Sodar independent. Sodar's likely just the sad vestige of what neighbors didn't care to pinch off, but Dohlar and Delferahk look instead to have grown large and (mildly) nationalistic enough to have been poor targets for more imperial growth. If Siddarmarkers-to-be could have foreseen that, then they would not have had to worry about Dohlaran "defensive" growth at their expense, but that's asking a lot of historical foresight. And besides, it would not have been anything more than one factor of several making joining up with Siddarmark a good idea. (Making it easier, Siddarmark may well have had ties short of assimilation with those provinces before they signed on.)

As threats go, Desnair was certainly larger and more definitely imperialistic. That doesn't mean it was the only one to be considered whatsoever. And I'm not trying to paint this all in terms inconsistent with Louis R's view of Siddarmark coalescing, either.

JeffEngel wrote:

n7axw wrote:I think your point here gloves into mine... All I'm really saying is that the trigger for Siddarmark's push to the west was the threat from Desnair. I'm not sure that Dohlar ever figured in. I don't see any basis for that conjecture, anyway.

Don

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I don't think Dohlar was high on the list of worries, but with Harchong and Desnair growing as empires, other states had to consider growing, uniting, or getting stepped on. If Dohlar's rulers felt it had to grow - or used that as an excuse for aggrandizement - it'd've been a threat, and the Siddarmarkers-to-be in that region may have been thinking about what Dohlaran rulers would have to do to consider themselves safe from being Desnairian targets.

As it happens, Desnairian and Harchongese expansion has left Dohlar, Delferahk, and Sodar independent. Sodar's likely just the sad vestige of what neighbors didn't care to pinch off, but Dohlar and Delferahk look instead to have grown large and (mildly) nationalistic enough to have been poor targets for more imperial growth. If Siddarmarkers-to-be could have foreseen that, then they would not have had to worry about Dohlaran "defensive" growth at their expense, but that's asking a lot of historical foresight. And besides, it would not have been anything more than one factor of several making joining up with Siddarmark a good idea. (Making it easier, Siddarmark may well have had ties short of assimilation with those provinces before they signed on.)

As threats go, Desnair was certainly larger and more definitely imperialistic. That doesn't mean it was the only one to be considered whatsoever. And I'm not trying to paint this all in terms inconsistent with Louis R's view of Siddarmark coalescing, either.

I agree with Louis Rs view of Dohlar coalescing. Kinda the old saw of hanging separately if we don't hang together...

Don

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I was speaking of Siddarmark - or at least I meant to - but you're right that Dohlar could have self-assembled in the same way, rather than by conquest by the Dukes of Gorath. In which case, the assembly probably was in response to Desnair reaching the Gulf of Dohlar. The problem with that idea is that I think it would make Dohlar significantly younger than it seems to be - or perhaps not. We simply don't know enough about the processes by which the various states on Safehold were stitched together, so there could easily have been a much longer interval between the growth of Desnair to its current size and the start of the conflict with Siddarmark than I've just realised I was assuming. We've been told that the proximate cause for the whole business was the substantial increase in the commercial prominence of the Salthar Canal, and that needn't in fact have been coincident with the arrival of the Desnairians in the region.

My point about Siddarmark, though, is that there's little reason to think that anybody in the original core _had_ a list of worries, or at least that either Harchong or Desnair figured on it. Harchong is on the far side of the Temple Lands, and will never have been a concern for any state in East Haven. Desnair and Dohlar both were, at the time, on the far side of a very substantial band of unsettled territory that would have provided as effective a buffer to expansion. In fact, it does seem to have stopped the Dohlarans moving north, since you would think that the natural boundary would have been the Seridahn.

As I said, there's too much we don't know. Indeed, the more I think about it, the more something seems to be off... ::cocks head and stares dubiously at map of Haven::

n7axw wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:I don't think Dohlar was high on the list of worries, but with Harchong and Desnair growing as empires, other states had to consider growing, uniting, or getting stepped on. If Dohlar's rulers felt it had to grow - or used that as an excuse for aggrandizement - it'd've been a threat, and the Siddarmarkers-to-be in that region may have been thinking about what Dohlaran rulers would have to do to consider themselves safe from being Desnairian targets.

As it happens, Desnairian and Harchongese expansion has left Dohlar, Delferahk, and Sodar independent. Sodar's likely just the sad vestige of what neighbors didn't care to pinch off, but Dohlar and Delferahk look instead to have grown large and (mildly) nationalistic enough to have been poor targets for more imperial growth. If Siddarmarkers-to-be could have foreseen that, then they would not have had to worry about Dohlaran "defensive" growth at their expense, but that's asking a lot of historical foresight. And besides, it would not have been anything more than one factor of several making joining up with Siddarmark a good idea. (Making it easier, Siddarmark may well have had ties short of assimilation with those provinces before they signed on.)

As threats go, Desnair was certainly larger and more definitely imperialistic. That doesn't mean it was the only one to be considered whatsoever. And I'm not trying to paint this all in terms inconsistent with Louis R's view of Siddarmark coalescing, either.

I agree with Louis Rs view of Dohlar coalescing. Kinda the old saw of hanging separately if we don't hang together...

Don

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Louis R wrote:My point about Siddarmark, though, is that there's little reason to think that anybody in the original core _had_ a list of worries, or at least that either Harchong or Desnair figured on it. Harchong is on the far side of the Temple Lands, and will never have been a concern for any state in East Haven. Desnair and Dohlar both were, at the time, on the far side of a very substantial band of unsettled territory that would have provided as effective a buffer to expansion. In fact, it does seem to have stopped the Dohlarans moving north, since you would think that the natural boundary would have been the Seridahn.

As I said, there's too much we don't know. Indeed, the more I think about it, the more something seems to be off... ::cocks head and stares dubiously at map of Haven::

Right. All the coalescence/conquest as a response to threat theories for Siddarmark or Dohlar call for some unusually long range worries. It's not at all like Earth that way; it'd be like attributing the growth of a powerful monarchy in France to Turkish success against the Byzantine Empire. I grant I may be reaching in the Safehold case, but unlike the terrestrial one, Safehold had (1) semaphores, maps, and canal networks to make goings-on over there much more certainly and immediately known so that responding to them wouldn't be plain silly, and (2) there wasn't much in the way of settlement in between to make for automatic buffer states.

I reckon the odds in favour of converting the whole population is as near zero as makes no difference. There will be some who will deny the facts no matter what. For example, The Flat Earth Society and its believers are still around, despite the famous photo of earth from the moon, and the gullible have we always with us. The problem that the EoC will have is how many of them are prepared to do something violent about it.
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The lack of settlement is exactly what makes the buffer effective: unconsecrated land is effectively semi-desert, no matter how lush the native vegetation. Forage for Terra-descended fauna - especially humans - is going to run from limited to almost non-existent. [As far as that goes, you'd last for about a week trying to march an army through the typical boreal forest here on Earth while living off the land. There's a reason you could find more than 10-15 Ojibway in one place only from June to mid-August]

In fact, that's probably what put paid to the first Desnairian attack on Siddarmark. By the time they got to Shiloh they would have been completely dependent on local supplies, which I have no doubt were gathered with the efficiency that has marked foraging armies for time out of mind. Ably assisted by the locals, who always hot-foot it with everything they can haul off in circumstances like that, and have been known to turn spiteful and burn the rest. I wonder if the guy who inspired "The Pikes of Kolstyr" didn't order that because he knew that if he didn't get the Siddarmarkians to quit _now_ he was in trouble.

JeffEngel wrote:Right. All the coalescence/conquest as a response to threat theories for Siddarmark or Dohlar call for some unusually long range worries. It's not at all like Earth that way; it'd be like attributing the growth of a powerful monarchy in France to Turkish success against the Byzantine Empire. I grant I may be reaching in the Safehold case, but unlike the terrestrial one, Safehold had (1) semaphores, maps, and canal networks to make goings-on over there much more certainly and immediately known so that responding to them wouldn't be plain silly, and (2) there wasn't much in the way of settlement in between to make for automatic buffer states.

Peter2 wrote:I reckon the odds in favour of converting the whole population is as near zero as makes no difference. There will be some who will deny the facts no matter what. For example, The Flat Earth Society and its believers are still around, despite the famous photo of earth from the moon, and the gullible have we always with us. The problem that the EoC will have is how many of them are prepared to do something violent about it.
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At times it seems that the threads of comment bounce about more that balls in a lottery machine (and I am guilty of some of the deflection) however, back to the point... I agree with Peter2!

Throughout the story we have seen examples of neighbors who disagree with each other. Not all as spectacularly as in Sidmark but the prospect that they will be singing Kumbaya by the end of the next book are astonishingly small. Still, much can be done when facts are honestly shared. I am reminded of the adage about freedom of the press depending on who own the press. Also, as Peter2 points out, there are still people that disbelieve that any humans walked on the moon but, we should be able to convince the majority of the population if the facts are presented.
Did I ever tell you that I have been wrong before?

Kumbaya

C. O. Thompson wrote:

Peter2 wrote:I reckon the odds in favour of converting the whole population is as near zero as makes no difference. There will be some who will deny the facts no matter what. For example, The Flat Earth Society and its believers are still around, despite the famous photo of earth from the moon, and the gullible have we always with us. The problem that the EoC will have is how many of them are prepared to do something violent about it.
.

At times it seems that the threads of comment bounce about more that balls in a lottery machine (and I am guilty of some of the deflection) however, back to the point... I agree with Peter2!

Throughout the story we have seen examples of neighbors who disagree with each other. Not all as spectacularly as in Sidmark but the prospect that they will be singing Kumbaya by the end of the next book are astonishingly small. Still, much can be done when facts are honestly shared. I am reminded of the adage about freedom of the press depending on who own the press. Also, as Peter2 points out, there are still people that disbelieve that any humans walked on the moon but, we should be able to convince the majority of the population if the facts are presented.
Did I ever tell you that I have been wrong before?

Kumbaya

Siddarmark was living together about as comfortably as can be expected until the inquisition came by and started stirring people up to accuse their neighbors of heresy. When people started being forced to choose their church over their country, things came apart.

I wonder how many grudges came to a head with the conflict as an excuse....ah...those Malcoms are heretics. Now we've a reason to go after 'em that has the sanction of Mother Church!

Don

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kaid wrote:I don't see the entire population ever fully converting. You are going to have sizable portions that will simply refuse seeing it all as the work of the devil. Short of something that appears as divine intervention.


I think it would not be unlikely to see a grayson/masada type split eventually. A part that while still very religious at least is pragmatic enough to use what technology they are required to use and another part of people who will utterly refuse to believe and will likely be intractably aggressive. Think the middle east issues with people who know with 100% "certainty" what god told them to do.

It is very likely you wind up having to simply leave them on safehold as humanity goes back to the stars and colonizes other worlds.

"A man convinced against his will, is of the same opinion still." Conversion of the entire populace of Safehold is unlikely, in view of human nature. Current events today show what would be likely, if Safehold were reality.