(SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.

What we are NOT being told and certainly the League is not pursueing it, it the possibility that the League could authorize a "Police Action" against some conflict. That includes some version of the Mandarin thinking of the lack of being able to force Manticore into being a nice, pliant (or beaten down subserviant lacky) client state of OFS.

A Police Action is what the Korean War was called because the UN can't declare war. It can do all sorts of things- WITH THE COOPERATION OF SOME COMBINATION OF SOME (LIKE THE SC) OR ALL OF IT'S MEMBERS- . It can approve the use of military type force in support of some of it's resolutions but is (still) dependnet on the willingness and availibity of it's members to provide those forces- and that, in turn, is dependent on the governments of it's members to be willing to supply and maintain those forces. Tricky that:)

The UN Security Council voted to authorize military force to resolve (a weasle word) the fighting in Korea. The primary reason that was able to happen was that of the members of the Security Council (which is the only part of the UN that could do the authorization) was limited to set countries and had to have a unanimous decision on that action. Russia- who was one of the perminent members of the SC- had earlier WALKED OUT OF THE COUNCIL MEETINGS but that apparently political ploy did NOT mean that the SC could not vote on the question, it only reduced the number of contries involved for the vote.....so, contrary to the actual interests of Russia (they were supporting China and North Korea) the vote of the FULL remaining members of the SC was for the "police action".

That is ONE of the wording problems of all of what is happening in the SL vs SEM (and now SEM RH and allies in the GA).


The other is that, the people who control the actual policy of the SL have had their power & control openly defied by an SL member and they have to "fix" that because they can't afford to have that defiance stand. Beowulf has upped the price by invoking another piece of the Constitution and is going to secede from the League. The Mandarins (and lots of others in the League) also can not afford to have anybody going back to the written Constitution rather than the current really flexable -what ever the bosses want it to be- usage.
Again, it is driven by power. We are correctly presented by the problem faced by the figures controlling the League and those who support it like the SLN etc. Any change to the current structure of the actual operations and control of those League policies and ability to inforce said control & policy can not be tolerated. If Beowulf leaves, everybody on the League side of the equation suffers a massive Loss Of Face. That can't be permitted and must be delt with.

Ok, we expect, because the author is reported as having mentioned that 10 million casualty figure, that Beowulf is going to take serious damage.

We are also guessing that as part of all of this that SL is going to attempt to force Beowulf to either not vote to leave the League or attempt to challange the vote to do so by regime change.

And then what happens? The Mandarins will spin it as usual and the rest of the League plus the actual independent systems or other multi-system political entities are going to have to make some tough decisions about what will happen next. Somehow the League losing another 100 plus capital ships in the process of "convincing" Beowulf to stay in the League isn't going to do a lot of positive things for the League. Loss of ships & crews aside, being publicly willing to attack Beowulf is going to make a lot of people really unhappy. Remember that about 25% of the League members voted AGAINST the resolution to investigate Beowulf.

Just exactly how is the SL going to accomplish it's possible attempt to invalidate the Beowulf plebiscite? Send a DB from Beowulf System to a SLN fleet waiting in hyper to react to the succession vote by storming the system while loudly proclaiming that the SL "observers" found massive voteing fraud? Parking an SLN fleet in (or just without) the system is going to look as bad as what Beowulf and Manticore are trying to avoid- the appearence of overt intimidation.

Have they even considered that - while Manticore was severely hurt by whomever trashed their orbital industry- that Haven has a whole lot of ships (of all classes) plus intact and in high gear production of military hardware which, while quite up to Matnty tech is a whole lot better than SLN stuff.
The vote is taken, the SLN force feels compelled to enter and secure the system against the " obvious" massive irregularites (from their point of view) that caused the outcome and the BSDF "reacts badly" to an SLN invasion of the system. It is highly unlikely that the BSDF is going to stand down because some SL functionary proclaims Beowulf must be rescued from the consequnces of leaving the League.

Treason!

This should be the League's defense against stopping the vote and/or the secession. Member states cannot actively secede in time of war - formal or de facto! [b]Beowulf actively colluded with an enemy under League radar during a de facto state of war! Actively hindered a tactical operation against League enemies and did so by working in tandem with said League enemies and allowed same enemies to deploy military hardware within League space! Beowulf should have remained neutral across the board -- in which case, neutrality can be argued to be transgressive as well. But they didn't remain neutral.

I don't like the way everyone is dismissing out of hand the serious charge of treason against Beowulf -- which directly resulted in the loss of an entire SLN fleet, several task forces and a horrendous loss of life.

Also, if it is now obvious to the League that OpSec was compromised because the RMN KNEW all of the particulars of Raging Justice then they are just as aware that their own member state, Beowulf, was privy to the same -- and that they were walking into an ambush -- but withheld that vital information with extreme prejudice!

No one else sees how serious a breech against one's polity that is?

Well, project the same transgression on, say, Hawaii. During a US de facto state of war with the Japanese during WWII, what would have been the reaction of the US against Hawaii if they had been kicking around seceding then decided to do so (with their treasonous actions) during about the time prior and leading up to Pearl Harbor and later the US found out that they allowed Japanese radar and communications on the island and subs to roam its waters?

Sobering 'eh? We may not like the SL, but we cannot offhandedly dismiss the grounds which support their legal legs.

I'm sure the League is thinking that legally, until or unless Beowulf has been freed, the SLN's presence in League space is none of the GA's[/b][i]

5 major differences there:
1) Hawaii was a territory in 1940, and as such, wholly owned property of the US government and unable to secede
2) US states do not have the constitutional right to secede
3) US states and territories are unable to enter into foreign agreements without approval of the Federal Government
4) SL systems do have the constitutional right to secede
5) SL systems and territories are allowed to enter into foreign agreements without approval of the SL Government


6) Did the SL declare war? I thought that one vote against would veto and,while I have a remarkable memory, it has been several years since I read the books where they made the decisions to send fleets against Manticore but, I don't recall that war was declared... they thought they would roll right over Manticore and say OOPS.

C. O. Thompson wrote:6) Did the SL declare war? I thought that one vote against would veto and,while I have a remarkable memory, it has been several years since I read the books where they made the decisions to send fleets against Manticore but, I don't recall that war was declared... they thought they would roll right over Manticore and say OOPS.

No, they haven't even submitted a declaration of war to the "Star Chamber" because a a defeated declaration would hamstring them even more than bending the "self defense clause" beyond recognition.

Weird Harold wrote:

C. O. Thompson wrote:6) Did the SL declare war? I thought that one vote against would veto and,while I have a remarkable memory, it has been several years since I read the books where they made the decisions to send fleets against Manticore but, I don't recall that war was declared... they thought they would roll right over Manticore and say OOPS.

No, they haven't even submitted a declaration of war to the "Star Chamber" because a a defeated declaration would hamstring them even more than bending the "self defense clause" beyond recognition.

What I thought and Brigade XO brings up the "Police Action" possibility... I guess if you were/are an investor or CEO in the military industrial complex you thought/think that this is a fine solution. Mostly everyone else will say that fighting to a DMZ is a loss of everything else.

Weird Harold wrote:

C. O. Thompson wrote:6) Did the SL declare war? I thought that one vote against would veto and,while I have a remarkable memory, it has been several years since I read the books where they made the decisions to send fleets against Manticore but, I don't recall that war was declared... they thought they would roll right over Manticore and say OOPS.

No, they haven't even submitted a declaration of war to the "Star Chamber" because a a defeated declaration would hamstring them even more than bending the "self defense clause" beyond recognition.

It's been theorised that there are multiple voting options open to Assembly delegates: Aye, nay, veto and abstain. In other words, it may be possible to vote against a motion without invoking the veto.

The strongest signpost of this was when a quarter of the delegates voted against commissioning an inquiry into Beowulf's actions and no mention of a veto was made. There is no explanation of why no veto was attempted by any of Beowulf's allies within the League, however.

munroburton wrote:It's been theorised that there are multiple voting options open to Assembly delegates: Aye, nay, veto and abstain. In other words, it may be possible to vote against a motion without invoking the veto.

The strongest signpost of this was when a quarter of the delegates voted against commissioning an inquiry into Beowulf's actions and no mention of a veto was made. There is no explanation of why no veto was attempted by any of Beowulf's allies within the League, however.

That's probably because it wasn't League legislation they were voting on. They were simply voting on an administrative item (formation of factfinding committee) which isn't subject to mutual veto.

Duckk wrote:

munroburton wrote:It's been theorised that there are multiple voting options open to Assembly delegates: Aye, nay, veto and abstain. In other words, it may be possible to vote against a motion without invoking the veto.

The strongest signpost of this was when a quarter of the delegates voted against commissioning an inquiry into Beowulf's actions and no mention of a veto was made. There is no explanation of why no veto was attempted by any of Beowulf's allies within the League, however.

That's probably because it wasn't League legislation they were voting on. They were simply voting on an administrative item (formation of factfinding committee) which isn't subject to mutual veto.

IIRC, League members have also limited their use of veto power to issues of foreign affairs as a matter of tradition.

jchilds wrote:IIRC, League members have also limited their use of veto power to issues of foreign affairs as a matter of tradition.

The power of veto is for any legislation. Remember, the League was specifically designed by its founders to not be able to trample on what had historically been sovereign independent states. The power to veto any legislation would be a huge part of that.

One of the problems here is that way too many people both in power & control of things withing the SL and the various Systems, corporation and have a vastly differnt view of the LAW affecting the SL vs what has grown up and become custom.

Where to start? Office of Frontier Security may actually at one time have actually been exactly that. Sort of a combination the Boarder Patrol and something like the Royal Canadian Mounted Police providing security, law enforcement and assistance (with force and administrative help) to the "edges" of actual SL space and in those areas relativley just "outside" the league which are/were the frontier. But that changed. OFS became a way to get rich and aquire ownership of vast territory with your own semi-private navy enforcing things for yourself and you new partners in any potentialy profitable venture (like being dictator or president-for-life) of systems.

The SL Bureaucracy and all of it's departments also became little kingdoms within the League based on the power of creating regulations & rules, with a lot of money and power to be made.

There were really no controls on what was going on. The systems within the bureaucracy (and that includes the SLN) evolved into what they became as they kept adjusting the administrative rules and "policy" as it went along. The Letter of the Law was an empty piece of paper with the administrativly creaty regulations and "usual and customary practice" set in place for the actual running of most things.

The accountability is all screwed up, there are dam few controls if you are near the top and often even less if you are working with the system that has grown. Getting caught doing something without protection and ability to get cover is essentialy the worst crime because you lose power, money and the ability to stay in the game.

Changing this is HARD. Look at what the author has to do to resolve the whole Silesia mess. Law is IMPOSED from the outside. Since the GA really only has the ability to use trade and treaty agreements with the separate systems and things like the transtellars, things within the League are going to get really ugly. Sure, the GA and some friends have massive millitary power, it truly can't impose peace and law everywhere.

Brigade XO wrote:Changing this is HARD. Look at what the author has to do to resolve the whole Silesia mess. Law is IMPOSED from the outside. Since the GA really only has the ability to use trade and treaty agreements with the separate systems and things like the transtellars, things within the League are going to get really ugly. Sure, the GA and some friends have massive millitary power, it truly can't impose peace and law everywhere.

Right. As it stands, the League government itself is not competent to impose law, on the Alignment, on OFS, on transtellars, or itself. The bureaucracy can't and definitely won't; the Assembly won't and definitely can't. And the GA can't either, though it can slap around some major, concentrated offenders where laserheads and KEWs can do the job.

Mostly what the GA can and has to do is motivate system governments - and maybe some League organs, transtellars, OFS governors who would rather be Barregos than Verrochio - who do have or can acquire the power to impose law that their own people and patrons, neighbors and the GA can all live with. If they can do that, they can have GA trade and the alliance of the GA partners and fellow travelers; if they can't, they're still a part of the problem.