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(SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.

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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by cthia   » Mon Dec 07, 2015 12:12 pm

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cthia wrote:
Brigade XO wrote:Ok, we expect, because the author is reported as having mentioned that 10 million casualty figure, that Beowulf is going to take serious damage.

We are also guessing that as part of all of this that SL is going to attempt to force Beowulf to either not vote to leave the League or attempt to challange the vote to do so by regime change.

And then what happens? The Mandarins will spin it as usual and the rest of the League plus the actual independent systems or other multi-system political entities are going to have to make some tough decisions about what will happen next. Somehow the League losing another 100 plus capital ships in the process of "convincing" Beowulf to stay in the League isn't going to do a lot of positive things for the League. Loss of ships & crews aside, being publicly willing to attack Beowulf is going to make a lot of people really unhappy. Remember that about 25% of the League members voted AGAINST the resolution to investigate Beowulf.

Just exactly how is the SL going to accomplish it's possible attempt to invalidate the Beowulf plebiscite? Send a DB from Beowulf System to a SLN fleet waiting in hyper to react to the succession vote by storming the system while loudly proclaiming that the SL "observers" found massive voteing fraud? Parking an SLN fleet in (or just without) the system is going to look as bad as what Beowulf and Manticore are trying to avoid- the appearence of overt intimidation.

Have they even considered that - while Manticore was severely hurt by whomever trashed their orbital industry- that Haven has a whole lot of ships (of all classes) plus intact and in high gear production of military hardware which, while quite up to Matnty tech is a whole lot better than SLN stuff.
The vote is taken, the SLN force feels compelled to enter and secure the system against the " obvious" massive irregularites (from their point of view) that caused the outcome and the BSDF "reacts badly" to an SLN invasion of the system. It is highly unlikely that the BSDF is going to stand down because some SL functionary proclaims Beowulf must be rescued from the consequnces of leaving the League.

Treason!

This should be the League's defense against stopping the vote and/or the secession. Member states cannot actively secede in time of war - formal or de facto! Beowulf actively colluded with an enemy under League radar during a de facto state of war! Actively hindered a tactical operation against League enemies and did so by working in tandem with said League enemies and allowed same enemies to deploy military hardware within League space! Beowulf should have remained neutral across the board -- in which case, neutrality can be argued to be transgressive as well. But they didn't remain neutral.

I don't like the way everyone is dismissing out of hand the serious charge of treason against Beowulf -- which directly resulted in the loss of an entire SLN fleet, several task forces and a horrendous loss of life.

Also, if it is now obvious to the League that OpSec was compromised because the RMN KNEW all of the particulars of Raging Justice then they are just as aware that their own member state, Beowulf, was privy to the same -- and that they were walking into an ambush -- but withheld that vital information with extreme prejudice!

No one else sees how serious a breech against one's polity that is?

Well, project the same transgression on, say, Hawaii. During a US de facto state of war with the Japanese during WWII, what would have been the reaction of the US against Hawaii if they had been kicking around seceding then decided to do so (with their treasonous actions) during about the time prior and leading up to Pearl Harbor and later the US found out that they allowed Japanese radar and communications on the island and subs to roam its waters?

Sobering 'eh? We may not like the SL, but we cannot offhandedly dismiss the grounds which support their legal legs.

I'm sure the League is thinking that legally, until or unless Beowulf has been freed, the SLN's presence in League space is none of the GA's hotdamn business!
.

Theemile wrote:5 major differences there:
1) Hawaii was a territory in 1940, and as such, wholly owned property of the US government and unable to secede
2) US states do not have the constitutional right to secede
3) US states and territories are unable to enter into foreign agreements without approval of the Federal Government
4) SL systems do have the constitutional right to secede
5) SL systems and territories are allowed to enter into foreign agreements without approval of the SL Government

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/1 ... 20410.html

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by Duckk   » Mon Dec 07, 2015 12:17 pm

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cthia wrote:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/13/petition-to-secede-states_n_2120410.html


That seriously doesn't mean anything. The "We the People" petition is literally for any subject, and has no legal force behind it. The only thing it does is that if it crosses the signature threshold, the White House will offer a statement on the topic. Hell, you could make a petition asking the president to pick between Taylor Swift or Justin Bieber.
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Post by CRC   » Mon Dec 07, 2015 12:31 pm

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The dual goal of the Alignment is to discredit both the SLN and the League AND reduce Battle Fleet numbers so that suborned Frontier Fleet and MAN units can compete militarily with the remaining SLN Battle Fleet units.

Accomplishing those two goals at Beowulf is simple. Have the SLN throw another 400+ SDNs at Beowulf, which then get taken out by a combination of Beowulf SDNs and pods, plus a micro-jumping GA fleet. The 400+ SDNs are shredded, but either nano-tech induced or technodyne sabotaged pods throw a bunch of fractional C missiles at Beowulf of which all are stopped but one - thus the 10 million dead.

The Alignment has basically reduced the SLN to an impotent force compared to their units and has completely discredited the Mandarins - from which the Renaissance reluctantly withdraws - secedes - from the corrupt and Eridani violating League - and invites others to join.

Mesa has their plans come to fruition. The league essentially collapses from the number of Core Systems declaring independence and using their own inherent protection forces against any attempt by the SLN to stop them.

The transtellars get their own systems as well.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by Dafmeister   » Mon Dec 07, 2015 12:38 pm

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Before we veer off into a discussion of US constitutional law (fun though that always is to observe from the eastern side of the Pond), something recently struck me.

RFC has talked about ten million casualties at Beowulf, and this seems to have been interpreted as the result of a strike on the planet. Is that necessarily the case, though? Ten million isn't all that many on a system-wide scale - it would only be about 0.3% of the population of the Manticore Binary System. Now, Manticore has three inhabited planets to Beowulf's one, but Beowulf's a lot older, old enough to have taken a lead role in the relief of Earth after the Final War, centuries before the Manticore colonists touched down at Landing. I don't have population figures for Beowulf to hand, but if the system population is less than Manticore's I'll be stunned, especially as we know from Alison and Alfred's back-story that one of the reasons they moved to Sphinx was that there were no controls on family size, implying that Beowulf had a large enough population to warrant such controls.

That being the case, how much of Beowulf's system population doesn't live on Beowulf itself? What do we know about the population of their equivalent of the Unicorn Belt (assuming Beowulf has one)? What sort of casualties could be caused by an attack on the belter facilities if it was deliberately targeted on the civilian population? Even Apollo system-defence missiles controlled by Mycroft might not be able to prevent such an attack - they could destroy the attacking ships, but against civilian habitats, the attacking missiles should be able to do the job without guidance support.

And... doesn't the Eridani Edict specifically protect the civilian population of planets, not systems?
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by cthia   » Mon Dec 07, 2015 12:45 pm

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Duckk wrote:
cthia wrote:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/13/petition-to-secede-states_n_2120410.html


That seriously doesn't mean anything. The "We the People" petition is literally for any subject, and has no legal force behind it. The only thing it does is that if it crosses the signature threshold, the White House will offer a statement on the topic. Hell, you could make a petition asking the president to pick between Taylor Swift or Justin Bieber.

I'll take your word for it because this argument is a fork of the gist of my post of origin. Which was a hypothetical position.

Therefore, if the right to secede does extend to territories and Hawaii acted as such... then!

Dodge the point all you want. IMO, the League doesn't have to twist anything. The letter of the law that Beowulf followed were not written to include the conditions of war. The law says the speed limit is 70 mph on some highways. Do we have to tell you to slow down when it rains or snows?


And I don't have a problem of accepting the League's disintegration. I have a problem with the GA being able to significantly give enough impetus to force those planets out of SL orbit in the very little time that you do.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by Duckk   » Mon Dec 07, 2015 12:52 pm

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Dodge the point all you want. IMO, the League doesn't have to twist anything. The letter of the law that Beowulf followed were not written to include the conditions of war. The law says the speed limit is 70 mph on some highways. Do we have to tell you to slow down when it rains or snows?


Again, read the text. There is no way this can be any more clear:

Try this scenario. The Navy wants our assistance in carrying out its attack on Manticore. Maybe they want the BSDF to participate actively, or maybe they just want to use the Junction to threaten Manticore from the rear and expect us to help with the necessary ship movements. Anyway, whatever they want, they tell us about it, and we turn them down. Under Article Five of the Constitution, we can refuse to place the System-Defense Force under federal control unless the League's formally at war, and the Beowulf Terminus of the Junction is outside the twelve-minute limit, which means it's not 'our' property to dispose of, anyway. They might not want to buy that interpretation, especially given our treaty with Manticore, but technically Beowulf Astro Control is a chartered private company, not an official organ of our government, and it leases the terminus from its Manticoran discoverers. So we've got plenty of wiggle room to keep the lawyers happy for the odd decade or two if they try to push it. Which means that if we do turn them down, refuse to cooperate, we can legitimately argue we're within our rights under the Constitution.

Later on:


"I suggest you consider that very carefully, Admiral." Gabriel Caddell-Markham's voice was considerably colder than Tsang's had been. "The confrontation between the League and the Star Empire has the potential to become the most disastrous collision in human history. It's the belief of the Beowulf government that the situation is being manipulated by forces inimical to both the League and the Star Empire and that we would be derelict in our duty — and our responsibility to the human race in general, not simply to the citizens of the Beowulf System — if we contributed to that disaster. We have no intention of doing so, and with all due deference to your understanding of the Constitution, it's our opinion that the federal government grossly overstepped its power by issuing your orders. There's been no declaration of war, and Article Five of the Constitution specifically denies the federal government authority to dictate to system governments in time of peace. As a consequence, the Beowulf System’s government is under no requirement to assist you in this movement, and our personnel and citizens will not assist you.

“The Beowulf Terminus is administered and controlled by the Beowulf Terminus Corporation, a civilian corporation based in Beowulf, but the Terminus’ actual sovereignty rests with Manticore, as its discoverer. Whether or not we would have the legal authority to allow you passage against Manticore’s will, even if we wished to, is a question complex enough to keep battalions of lawyers busy for decades. But the bottom line is that neither we nor the BTC have any desire to assist you in this madness to begin with and that virtually all the personnel manning the traffic control platforms on the terminus are Beowulfan citizens. Solarian citizens — civilians — over whom the Solarian military has no jurisdiction in time of peace. For that matter, the Solarian military has no jurisdiction over Solarian civilians even in time of war unless a legitimate declaration of martial law has first been issued. None has. Since that’s the case, the Beowulf System Defense Force would be morally, legally, and constitutionally justified in protecting our citizens against illegal coercion by whatever means may be necessary. And in case I haven't been sufficiently clear, 'whatever means may be necessary' does include the use of deadly force."
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by munroburton   » Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:16 pm

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Dodge the point all you want. IMO, the League doesn't have to twist anything. The letter of the law that Beowulf followed were not written to include the conditions of war. The law says the speed limit is 70 mph on some highways. Do we have to tell you to slow down when it rains or snows?


Actually, they do. Many UK motorways are fitted with electronic signs which tell drivers a temporary lower speed limit is currently in force and why - weather, accident ahead, congestion and so on. And nevertheless, some drivers continue to floor their pedals, hurtling along at 100mph, figuring that the faster they arrive at the problem, the faster they'll be through it.

IMO, the letter of the League's law is sufficient. And perfectly reasonable - as Duckk provided, textev indicates that were a formal declaration of war to be made, the BDSF would be required to comply. Their constitution was intentionally set up this way precisely to prevent the federal government from doing what it's trying to do now.

Because the League government has not declared war for whatever reasons, Beowulf is perfectly entitled to refuse and so are any other system defense forces for that matter. Likewise, secession is not forbidden and it looks like the League government is going to make further illegal steps to prevent them happening.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by Hutch   » Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:38 pm

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Dafmeister wrote:Before we veer off into a discussion of US constitutional law (fun though that always is to observe from the eastern side of the Pond), something recently struck me.

RFC has talked about ten million casualties at Beowulf, and this seems to have been interpreted as the result of a strike on the planet. Is that necessarily the case, though? Ten million isn't all that many on a system-wide scale - it would only be about 0.3% of the population of the Manticore Binary System. Now, Manticore has three inhabited planets to Beowulf's one, but Beowulf's a lot older, old enough to have taken a lead role in the relief of Earth after the Final War, centuries before the Manticore colonists touched down at Landing. I don't have population figures for Beowulf to hand, but if the system population is less than Manticore's I'll be stunned, especially as we know from Alison and Alfred's back-story that one of the reasons they moved to Sphinx was that there were no controls on family size, implying that Beowulf had a large enough population to warrant such controls.

That being the case, how much of Beowulf's system population doesn't live on Beowulf itself? What do we know about the population of their equivalent of the Unicorn Belt (assuming Beowulf has one)? What sort of casualties could be caused by an attack on the belter facilities if it was deliberately targeted on the civilian population? Even Apollo system-defence missiles controlled by Mycroft might not be able to prevent such an attack - they could destroy the attacking ships, but against civilian habitats, the attacking missiles should be able to do the job without guidance support.

And... doesn't the Eridani Edict specifically protect the civilian population of planets, not systems?


Excellent points, and (as the one who introduced this little tidbit from listening to the MWW at LibertyCon), the Words of Weber (as I recall) was that he was working on killing off 10 million Beowulfians, but he did not specify how or where or when in the narrative that may happen.

Press on.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by Armed Neo-Bob   » Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:53 pm

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cthia wrote: I'll take your word for it because this argument is a fork of the gist of my post of origin. Which was a hypothetical position.

Therefore, if the right to secede does extend to territories and Hawaii acted as such... then!


New England State almost pulled out several times; the subject was debated several times.

cthia wrote:Dodge the point all you want. IMO, the League doesn't have to twist anything. The letter of the law that Beowulf followed were not written to include the conditions of war. The law says the speed limit is 70 mph on some highways. Do we have to tell you to slow down when it rains or snows?


Duckk's quotes clearly show it is the League and the Navy that aren't following the law.

cthia wrote:And I don't have a problem of accepting the League's disintegration. I have a problem with the GA being able to significantly give enough impetus to force those planets out of SL orbit in the very little time that you do.


And no one is goig to force anyone out of the League--they will be leaping at the chance, so it may just take long for the desert course to get here. Back in 1988, when I ended my second tour, there were 140 or so wars ongoing world wide; in spite of the UN and the great powers, and sometimes because of them. Compromise sounds nice, but agreement is hard--especially when someone refuses to lose.

Duckk brought up the relevant quotes. Regarding Treason, though, the illegal actions of the SLN Admirals and the Mandarins constitute high crimes and misdemeanors, if not outright treason. But treason against what?

Cthia, you seem to be confusing the League with a nation. More specifically, with our nation. We had something (vaguely) similar to the League under the Articles of Confederation, but there was nothing quite like the founding fathers for the League; and while the 1789 changes were ratified by the States, that constitution wasn't exactly what they were supposed to be writing. And it is nothing like the League's constitution.

Anything that is a League is a combination of sovereign states which agree to act together for a specific purpose: the Delian League (classical Greece), or the League of Nations-- doesn't make any difference. The member states act in concert only in some specific ways, they do NOT become a single nation. Instead of thinking "like the US" try thinking more "like the UN." Or the EEC. The definition for a League is very similar to "confederation" and even "federation." None of those terms imply a single polity.

Neither the SLN or the Mandarins care that it they don't have the authority to do whatever--they have all those SD's, so no one has been arguing. FF craps all over the Verge systems--because they can, not because the law allows. It is the corruption inherent in their acts and attitude fueling the resentment which will blow up in their faces. But if they had wanted legality, they would have had to allow the constitution to be amended to make them a single polity instead of a group polity.

Which, would never fly. Reformers would want to audit all those goverment accounts. Something any group of Mandarins would stop at all costs. :D



cthia wrote:Also, if it is now obvious to the League that OpSec was compromised because the RMN KNEW all of the particulars of Raging Justice then they are just as aware that their own member state, Beowulf, was privy to the same -- and that they were walking into an ambush -- but withheld that vital information with extreme prejudice!


Uh, hello? Kolokoltsov was philosophical about it because the NEWSIES in the League dumped the details into the faxes!

Regards, Rob
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Re: (SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Dec 07, 2015 10:19 pm

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munroburton wrote:
Dodge the point all you want. IMO, the League doesn't have to twist anything. The letter of the law that Beowulf followed were not written to include the conditions of war. The law says the speed limit is 70 mph on some highways. Do we have to tell you to slow down when it rains or snows?


Actually, they do. Many UK motorways are fitted with electronic signs which tell drivers a temporary lower speed limit is currently in force and why - weather, accident ahead, congestion and so on. And nevertheless, some drivers continue to floor their pedals, hurtling along at 100mph, figuring that the faster they arrive at the problem, the faster they'll be through it.

IMO, the letter of the League's law is sufficient. And perfectly reasonable - as Duckk provided, textev indicates that were a formal declaration of war to be made, the BDSF would be required to comply. Their constitution was intentionally set up this way precisely to prevent the federal government from doing what it's trying to do now.

Because the League government has not declared war for whatever reasons, Beowulf is perfectly entitled to refuse and so are any other system defense forces for that matter. Likewise, secession is not forbidden and it looks like the League government is going to make further illegal steps to prevent them happening.

For that matter even when the posted speed limit signs don't change its not necessarily legal to go as fast as the sign says. My state, and I'd assume most/all states have wording in the motor vehicle laws requiring drivers, regardless of speed limits, not to exceed a speed that is reasonable for the conditions and traffic at the time.

So if your are doing 70 on a snowy road you'd be breaking that part of the motor vehicle laws even if the road was signed for 70. This just isn't a good analogy for what Beowulf's done; because driving too fast for conditions is against the letter of the law (at least in my state) but refusing Battle Fleet access to Sovereign territory (barring a formal declaration of war from the legislature) is not.
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