(SPOILERS) Expected defeat at Beowulf.

Weird Harold wrote:

Duckk wrote:
You don't keep people at general quarters for every single day of the year. Fatigue was a problem at Lovat because the crew had been operating at full alert for 60 hours.

That's pretty much the point. A single platform can control an attack, but it cannot be ready for that attack all the time. There needs to be a backup/relief platform to alternate with to allow for hardware maintenance. Either that or the platform has to be big enough for multiple crews and duplicate hardware.

Certainly ships and fortresses are large enough for multiple shifts and some hardware duplication. Redundancy would get you systems you could maintain while the others are in use - in addition to the naval engineer's reflexive need to provide a system robust against damage - and you can stand down even some systems without a backup available during periods when you know there isn't work to be done and can have them back up well in time in case a customer shows up.

Multiple platforms would be for redundancy in the face of attack, or having some platform in a better position for missile management. They could possibly be for the sake of alternating shifts, but that would only be in case of a peculiarly austere design that doesn't support 24/7 shifts itself.

Go reread Chapter 57 of AAC again. The whole point of the discussion at the beginning was that they totally could have filled out one single Moriarty station with a fully trained crew capable of staying at general quarters for extended periods of time. They didn't do that at Lovat because they decided having backup platforms was more important than providing a full, trained complement for a single platform.

Part of my new thoughts as we wait for the RFC/MWW battle at Beowulf is that -- to render the SLN ineffective doesn't require the GA to smash the invading force to bits. That wasn't even what they were after in Filerata's Folly which would have worked -- except that the command structure got blown to bits by a bomb placed on flag bridge just for that reason.

So here's an interesting thought that requires neither the pre-deployment of Apollo, etc. [though I still think there will be a plenipotentiary ready to sign over GA ships to Beowulf once the SLN positions to attack]: What if Manticore helped upgrade the Beowulfan SD's CM capability to Alliance levels and shipped in a liberal supply of Katanas? Something like what Giscard experienced at Solon -- even with more missiles than the SLN can likely control, they failed to capture or destroy Eighth Fleet, even though they had every force advantage available. The SLN does not have the weight of missile fire available, nor the quality of leadership: simply keeping the BSDF from getting fragged may be enough -- while the GA is invited around the periphery to block the SLN's withdrawal and force a surrender.

Thoughts?

One more: apparently at a convention David mentions a high number of Beowulfan fatalities, we're assuming an Eridani violation.

I disagree. No SLN officer is going to frag a member planet, the MAlign wants to survive and take the league apart, not unite them behind the one thing that David says will unite everybody to hunt and kill those responsible. The Mandarins are desperate, but not stupid.

Ergo I think what happens is collateral damage on a huge scale. A planetary impactor doesn't have to be intentional to kill millions, a la Oyster Bay. So my suspicion is that any fatalities will be a side effect of an inside the hyper limit battle and a stray unintentional missile hit, deorbited destroyed hardware, etc. or both, etc.

It fits past "battle doctrine" and plot events, no?

SharkHunter wrote:Part of my new thoughts as we wait for the RFC/MWW battle at Beowulf is that -- to render the SLN ineffective doesn't require the GA to smash the invading force to bits. That wasn't even what they were after in Filerata's Folly which would have worked -- except that the command structure got blown to bits by a bomb placed on flag bridge just for that reason.

So here's an interesting thought that requires neither the pre-deployment of Apollo, etc. [though I still think there will be a plenipotentiary ready to sign over GA ships to Beowulf once the SLN positions to attack]: What if Manticore helped upgrade the Beowulfan SD's CM capability to Alliance levels and shipped in a liberal supply of Katanas? Something like what Giscard experienced at Solon -- even with more missiles than the SLN can likely control, they failed to capture or destroy Eighth Fleet, even though they had every force advantage available. The SLN does not have the weight of missile fire available, nor the quality of leadership: simply keeping the BSDF from getting fragged may be enough -- while the GA is invited around the periphery to block the SLN's withdrawal and force a surrender.

Thoughts?

This is what I was getting at when I asked why the Mycroft system isn't included in the ban. Someone responded that it is specifically Manticoran personnel that isn't allowed. In that case, as you have suggested Sharkhunter, why can't the BSDF be either upgraded or, why can't they just be 'sold' Manticoran ships. What, Beowulf can't purchase ships? They already surprised the SLN with Manty hardware.

Question. Is it already established in textev that the SLN will be present in Beowulfan space during the plebescite as 'overseers?' If so, what force is given?

at a guess the reason Beowulf can't buy GA ships is that there isn't enough time to train beowulf crews to sufficient level of confidence ion the new hardware.

yes Manticore/GA could "loan" crew but that would be seen by both locals (don't forget while the preliminary polls show majority are up for leaving the league there is still a sizeable MINORTY, about 20% i believe, who don't and who could cause trouble if it looks like Manties are forcing the issue) and others as the paper thin excuse it would be.

much easier to buy one system FTL control links and use that with pure BSDF personnel. as missiles are missiles, the new ones just have more range.

but as i say that is just a guess.

Duckk wrote:Go reread Chapter 57 of AAC again. The whole point of the discussion at the beginning was that they totally could have filled out one single Moriarty station with a fully trained crew capable of staying at general quarters for extended periods of time. They didn't do that at Lovat because they decided having backup platforms was more important than providing a full, trained complement for a single platform.

Not quite Duckk, I even posted the quotes back a few pages.

At Lovat, the commanders there were delighted to have three individual platforms, and they had only one full, trained crew. They eventually decided to bring up 'Silver' to give that crew some more hands-on training. Which could be interpreted as either 'complete but not fully trained' or 'incomplete and also not fully trained', I believe it was the former, they had full crews on all three but the backups weren't fully trained.

60 hours at full alert, even Honor in HotQ didn't keep her crew at full GQ, they went into a phased cycle to stay upwards of 50% (probably closer to 75%) readiness at all times. The Moriarty Gold platform probably went into the same, slowly cycling its (complete and fully trained) crew until even they couldn't maintain. And that's when they made the decision to switch to Silver, with the added benefit of live training.

How many large space stations are in the Beowulf system? Ten million casualties could easily be from Beowulf's space based infrastructure and space stations.

cthia wrote:Question. Is it already established in textev that the SLN will be present in Beowulfan space during the plebescite as 'overseers?' If so, what force is given?

No, that's part of what the supergeniuses running the SL decided to add. The books are pretty good, you should read them.

ART Ch35
“You mean Kingsford and Bernard are thinking in terms of pouncing on Beowulf—coming straight in across the hyper limit and going flat out for the planet—before any Manty forces at the terminus can intervene?”

“I think that’s about the only thing they could be thinking of,” al-Fanudahi said. “I don’t know if it would work, but assuming Beowulf hasn’t been completely surrounded by new and nasty missile pods, a big enough force of superdreadnoughts, especially with enough of the new Technodyne missile pods, probably could fight its way in through the BSDF and the fixed defenses. And once they controlled the planetary orbitals, they’d be justified under interstellar law in demanding the system’s surrender.”

“And exactly where in this fascinating analysis of yours do the Manty superdreadnoughts come in?” Teague inquired politely. “You know, the ones over at the terminus? The ones who are going to come right back over to Beowulf and kick our sorry asses out of the star system?”

“Oh, those superdreadnoughts?” Al-Fanudahi smiled crookedly at her. “Well, I suppose the idea would be that once the system government surrendered to us, we’d announce special emergency elections—called at the insistence of the Beowulfan public, of course—in light of the existing Board of Directors’ high-handed and probably treasonous actions. And no doubt that new, legitimate system government would denounce the previous system government’s decision to even consider seceding from the Solarian League. Obviously, it would be incumbent upon us to recognize new, legitimate—I did mention that it would be legitimate, didn’t I?—system government’s position. And, equally obviously, Manticore would be on very thin ice when it came to denying the legitimacy of that new system government, given their desire to avoid the puppet master image. So the logic, I imagine, is that since what Manticore really needs is control of the Beowulf Terminus, the Manties would recognize a fait accompli when they saw it and let us have the Beowulf System back.”

“And if the Manties don’t roll over that way?”

“In that case, I would imagine, our fleet commander negotiates a withdrawal from the star system. Probably on the grounds that the orders which sent him there in the first place had misread the true sentiments of the Beowulfers. Now that he’s had the opportunity to observe firsthand that the decision to secede enjoys genuine popular support, of course he’s prepared to acknowledge that and retire from the lists. Of course, if Manticore is so unreasonable as to deny a negotiated, peaceful withdrawal with no further combat, our commander can’t be held responsible for any collateral damage that might befall the system infrastructure—and population, unfortunately—in the course of an unprovoked Manticoran attack upon his peaceably departing forces.”

Theemile wrote:

JohnRoth wrote:As far as readiness goes, they've got the 100 SDs in Admiral Tsang's task force plus the 600 SDs they were assembling at Tasmania for a second wave attacking Manticore. I don't think the GA knows about them.

<snip>

Tasmania is >3 months travel from Earth at military speeds, so I don't believe the timing allows the Tasmania forces enough time to get the recall order and return.

However, Hyperion One in Sol is the largest SLN shipyard and base, with the largest reserve. If any base can scrape up more SDs in a snap, it will be Hyperion One. When you figure that ~400 SDs are undergoing maintenance, some of those should be able to be expediated back to the active fleet.

When the SLN threw that large force at Manticore, the RMN KNEW in advance that they were coming and had time and advanced ships and tech to deploy, along with 'the' dream-team pool of tactical geniuses in which to brainstorm.

Beowulf may have neither of those advantages. They won't have the Home field advantage of the more overwhelmingly advanced ships in-system -- that's at the junction. They won't have a much larger fleet already emplaced or a more advanced fleet to offset. And they won't have broken the enigma codes and received forewarning of the next SLN-juggernaut dispatched their way.

It's not like at Manticore when the more capable ships were already tactically emplaced enveloping the strategic objective. The GA won't be in an optimum position as they were in Manticoran space. Under those conditions, it seems that a massive juggernaut can do loads of damage. Plus, the next SLN wave won't be as totally clueless about what they are facing -- factor in any upgrades.

Plus! Whoever said the SLN adheres to the KISS principle. Thus far, the only KISS they've adhered to is to invite enemies to their hind quarters. So a simultaneous attack on both the Manty and Beowulf systems may be too much for even the GA to adequately protect Beowulfan lives.

That's the tactical call I'd make if I were the League. They have to throw the KISS principle to the wind and distract the GA with problems of their own. And if the SLN will already be in-system anyways, as Trojan horses disguised as friendly overseers??? Well...

I'm sorry. It appears to me that the SLN has a few potential field leveling tricks to pull from its sleeves...

1. Pre-positioning -- it is their right to oversee the plebiscite.

2. They'll probably pull off an element of surprise this time. Another force hypering in to busy the RMN junction force while their ships already in orbit starts Jimmy flat blasting the BSDF (who may be déjà vued like three previous DNs)

3. Not ignorant anymore to what they actually face technologically.

4. Interior position - between the planet and the GA.

5. A tactically handicapped resistance force. The GA will be time constrained.

Factor in the normal benefit from seriously planning an assault this time minus the usual arrogance and the fact that no GA force has particularly encountered any SLN tactics. What will they fight like when they actually respect their opponent?

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