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Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk

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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by JeffEngel   » Sun Nov 29, 2015 3:50 pm

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Expert snuggler wrote:Wow that's a first-rate point.

Trynair should be getting lots of ground truth and outright espionage from the Church diplomats, in every realm where Merlin and OWL still allow espionage to operate. It's part of what diplomats are for.

Duchairn controls auditors in every loyal area who have authority to go over any books that might be used to conceal tithe-dodging, which means everything governmental, which means he's got information and the power to investigate ("What's this ledger entry for 'special projects', anyway?").

Maigwair is starting from scratch, but the smarter he is the more likely that he's telling liaison officers to ply their contacts with gifts and drinks.

And yet, we've seen very little evidence of Church intelligence networks other than the Inquisition's. Among my own predictions for HFQ, one place I definitely came up short was my expectation we WOULD see some evidence of it in there. (Maybe they're keeping it to themselves - maybe Trynair is trying to fade into the background is just because he knows the Church has got no firm secular allies anymore.)
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by n7axw   » Sun Nov 29, 2015 6:38 pm

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What is interesting to me about this is that the longer the war has gone on, the more Clyntahn and the inquisition have assumed control and the more dependent the COGA is on the inquisition to carry out basic functions. In HFQ we've seen the inquisition start to crack. I find myself thinking that could end up impacting the COGA's ability to continue the Jihad.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by Peter2   » Sun Nov 29, 2015 9:43 pm

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I keep thinking of the title RFC gave to the last book. The operatives of the Inquisition and the COGA's espionage branch must be starting to feel more than a little uneasy, and must be beginning to look over their shoulders to see it there's anybody metaphorically coming up behind them with a dagger.

Talking of espionage, have we spotted anybody apart from Rayno and the Inquisition running the CoGA's spies? For example, Clyntahn and Rayno must have tasked somebody with the job of setting up their Rakurai operation, but despite Aivah's operatives and Owl's widespread sensor net, I don't remember seeing any textev that either one has picked up any data on that. Neither do I remember anything about any more conventional CoGA intelligence operation, and I would have thought Nahrmand and Owl would have had that thoroughly penetrated by now.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by SciFi90   » Sun Nov 29, 2015 9:56 pm

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n7axw wrote:What is interesting to me about this is that the longer the war has gone on, the more Clyntahn and the inquisition have assumed control and the more dependent the COGA is on the inquisition to carry out basic functions. In HFQ we've seen the inquisition start to crack. I find myself thinking that could end up impacting the COGA's ability to continue the Jihad.

Don

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Mr. Weber may be setting the stage for Clyntahn to take over control of Army of God operations, and his fanaticism; ("God will not permit the Church forces to lose!") to cause issuance of orders that are either impossible to carry out, or disastrous to the various "armies" so ordered.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by SciFi90   » Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:14 pm

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PeterZ wrote:@CJK

You miss the point. The King Haaralds allow Dohlar to recognize that the jihad was launched in error. That point will allow other nations to also opt out. Silkiah and Delferahk anyone?

To repeat myself. The KH VIIs are so innovative that if they violate the proscriptions, they do so with direct demonic influence. That means God would have to act to counter that influence. The only divine influence anyone knows about is the return of the seijin and they serve Charis. It follows that the Charisian innovations are not influenced by demons. It further follows that those innovations do not offend God. The Inquisition's claim that Charis was in rebellion against the CoGA when they denounced the CoGA attack in the name of the KotTL was sophistry. The Church attacked Charis and Charis defended itself. The Jihad was unjustified. So leaving the jihad is not a betrayal of God, but a recognition of the inquisition's error.

Inasmuch as there is no other naval force on Safehold capable of challenging Charis, the King Haarald ships are unnecessary to the success of the war. They may serve as an example of how far ahead Charis is, compared to other countries.
Mr. Weber has made the improvement of Safehold's technological growth as the long-term goal of Merlin. Since the only inventions not based on captured Charis weapons has been the Screw-Galleys in Dohlar, I expect the engineers in Dohlar will also be "rescued" eventually.
Mr. Weber may have Merlin offer choices to Earl Thirsk after providing proof of their safety. At Thirsk's choice, return of the family to Dohlar, safety under Imperial protection in Charis, and Thirsk's joining them there, or handing over to the Inquisition 's "protection".
Mr. Weber may also have Clyntahn "take over" control of the various Armies, in which his fanaticism )"God will not permit us to lose!") will lead to orders impossible to obey, or disastrous maneuvers resulting in major losses.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by n7axw   » Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:38 pm

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SciFi90 wrote:
n7axw wrote:What is interesting to me about this is that the longer the war has gone on, the more Clyntahn and the inquisition have assumed control and the more dependent the COGA is on the inquisition to carry out basic functions. In HFQ we've seen the inquisition start to crack. I find myself thinking that could end up impacting the COGA's ability to continue the Jihad.

Don

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Mr. Weber may be setting the stage for Clyntahn to take over control of Army of God operations, and his fanaticism; ("God will not permit the Church forces to lose!") to cause issuance of orders that are either impossible to carry out, or disastrous to the various "armies" so ordered.


Can anyone remember a decision or a judgment call that Clyntahn has made that produced what he was after? All I can come up with at the moment is the assasination of Hector which worked in his favor at the time but has backfired sinse and the purge of the vicarate in which he crushed the opposition putting him in almost absolute control in Zion. Virtually everything else he's tried has washed out...

Yes, the way the story arc is moving one of the possibilities is for the inquisition to assume control of the Jihad. Given the quality of Clyntahn's decision making, that would be one way to bring about a complete collapse of the Jihad and a conclusion to this phase of the story.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by SciFi90   » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:16 am

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CJK wrote:Also worth considering is the actions of Kau-Yung (plus his followers) and its consequences, namely the creation of the Book of Schueler and Chihiro. To start with they were made without Bedard overseeing the process, NTM the Chihiro book by itself introduces the concept of fallibility of archangels by itself. The original setup was made to be unbreakable, something which cannot now be put to the test as the later 2 books harm that straitjacket quite a bit.

IMO it is not an accident that the order of Schueler (and Jwo-Jeng) has consolidated power so heavily over time. Setting up a secret police with power over the other priesthood orders usually has that outcome. Or that thus far nearly all the actions which has created and nurtured the schism come from this book. I get the feeling that either the author made it that way or was too consumed with crushing the command crew rebellion after Kau-Yung's death.

It will be very interesting to see how Mr. Weber handles the revelation of the Book of Schueler origin, and what is revealed when the micro-circuit "stone" is finally placed on the workstation under the Temple.
If that "book" is said to be the work of others, the reason why it is attributed to Schueler also will be interesting, as well as the effect on Wylsin(?) in Charis.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by SciFi90   » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:22 am

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n7axw wrote:What is interesting to me about this is that the longer the war has gone on, the more Clyntahn and the inquisition have assumed control and the more dependent the COGA is on the inquisition to carry out basic functions. In HFQ we've seen the inquisition start to crack. I find myself thinking that could end up impacting the COGA's ability to continue the Jihad.

Don

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Once the ability to enforce "Orders from above" weakens, the cracks in the foundation can only widen until it fails completely. Mr. Weber may have that spread in the various "armies" if he has Clyntahn take command.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by SciFi90   » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:30 am

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dwileye13 wrote:Good thread
Thirsk has hit bottom and is waiting to re-enter the fray but has no motivation. The only thing that he sees he can accomplish is saving his men on the surviving prison ship from the Inquisition. I surmise that point from his anguish just prior to being shot. He is a loyalist but knows where the honor and truth are being upheld. His Church has forced him into dishonor and repudiation of his moral core. Our Merlin is walking into his nightmare with the answer to his prayers.
Any thoughts that Merlin hasn’t stepped across the Sejin/Demon line by showing up is ludicrous. He cannot be where he is by any evaluation. His presence in Siddar City is a matter of common knowledge. Thirsk is now in possession of dangerous information; Merlin is a Demon – proof positive. OR Merlin is going to share more (beyond the Thirsk family rescue) and leave it to The Earl to accept.
The interesting thing is, even if Thirsk wanted to tell the story of Merlin coming into his Parlor and sharing his whisky, saying his family was kidnapped / captured, then disappearing out the window or front door, who would believe the old drunk wounded spiritless Earl in the first place?
No the storyline needs Thirsk to rescue his own men from the Inquisition perhaps precipitating Dohlar dropping out of the Jihad. Easy enough to send someone else’s sailors off to the Punishment but being requested to send your own innocent people to be butchered and burnt may push Dohlar over the edge. Like Desnair not giving up Hennett, Duke Fern tried to deny the Charis Prisoners because Siddermark and EoC have their citizens as prisoners. The groundwork is there RFC will flesh out the details.
This will enrage Clyntahn and he will have ready solution
This leads up to my prediction of a couple of books ago, The alliance may end up defending Dohlar from the contingent of the Harchong Army marching south towards Hanth. Clyntahn enraged with Dohlar’s refusal to send the Dohlar sailors to the Inquisition could send order to that Army to destroy Dohlar in the Process.
Now that would be another can of worms, eh?
:mrgreen:

Mr. Weber is much too astute a scholar of the military to have even Clyntahn start another battlefront when already engaged against "heretics" in Siddarmark. I would doubt even the most vehement fanatic would open another front when losing on the one already engaged.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by SciFi90   » Mon Nov 30, 2015 2:07 am

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PeterZ wrote:
JeffEngel wrote:It does have the problem that (1) it runs counter to the Writ and the general conservatism of it, particularly to do with technology, and (2) it makes Shan-wei's lures of forbidden knowledge and rejecting Langhorne's teachings under the guise of benefiting oneself and one's people sound like God's plan, so the War Against the Fallen was, in effect, won by the bad guys. That's a painful lot to swallow, even in the face of reality strongly suggesting it may have a point.

But yeah, it would certainly have that much going for it, and reality can sometimes make a dent in religious belief - usually by ushering it out of the way.

There's another theological option to consider though - Clyntahn's suicide cult reading of the Writ. On it, angelic intervention comes eventually, but Safehold will be tempted sorely before that comes. It will be tempted by the alleged sins of the Vicarate into rebellion and apostacy; it will be tempted by Shan-wei's lures, appealing to fallen man's weakness and "better nature"; it will appeal to the sheer desire to live and knuckle under to heretics triumphant on the battlefield. It may well go all the way until Safehold consists of a world of heretics marching on a small, faithful to the last holdout in Zion led by Langhorne's sole true heir, Zhaspyr Clyntahn, expecting fully that nothing but a miracle can save them... when at last the Rakurai cleanse God's world of the unbeliever, Langhorne and the Archangels return in glory, and those few - living or martyred - who never, ever let go his charge are rewarded for their absolute faith in Him.

That one is a mighty stern and demanding theology. It's not going to reveal itself in the world til the very end, but it's a fair reading of the Writ and it's one to motivate fighting on no matter what.


Indeed your alternative theological view has its attractions to the sufficiently faithful and only to the sufficiently faithful. The key problem is that the Writ also requires that God's children act as he would have them act. The CoGA is a religion of works not faith and faith alone. That is the sine qua non of the Inquisition's justification. Whatever the inquisition does to foster compliance to the Writ as it defines compliance is justifiable. Why God's children comply is not as important as that they do comply.

That means that to encourage people to sit back and let God save us all is anathema to the theological foundation of the Inquisition. Human salvation requires humanity to act and earn that salvation. Salvation for humanity needs the Inquisition to guide human activity so that it earns salvation from God. Just as God acted through His archangels to bring about creation, He acts through His Church to prepare humanity to receive His salvation. Letting God do all the work is tantamount to saying their entire raison d'etre does not exist. If human action is unnecessary to human salvation, then the fundamental task of the Inquisition is unnecessary.

Mr. Weber has depicted Clyntahn as defining the "Writ", the "Mother Church", and God's Will (as given through the Archangels) as whatever he, personally, wishes. In so doing, he issues orders dictating his desired results, leaving it to Rayno to see to implementation. Failures should let Mr. Weber create interesting confrontations between them.
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