When the Reveal happens...

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:Your proposal would also eventually make it public unless the security was kept tight.

That's really the point. Simply removing the security would suffice as a "reveal" without a frontal attack on everyone's beliefs.

I really don't have any real disagreement with your statement here. We'll have to wait and see how the story plays out.

Don

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Bluestrike2 wrote:There's a huge credibility gap between any returning Angels and the Inner Circle, and it's not one that they can easily bridge. If it comes down to their word against Angels who are actually present and can actually defend themselves, Merlin and the Inner Circle will quickly lose that fight. It stacks the deck too far much against them, and there's no way Merlin would be willing to run the sort of risk that'd mean.

So, either the Reveal will happen in the next twenty years before the millennial return, or they'll figure out a way to defang any returning personalities. The only way you can do that is by taking the Temple and either pulling them from storage or disconnecting any potential tools that they can use from the Temple. Things like network connections, satellite uplinks to the OBS, prebuilt PICAs, etc. When the personality finally wakes up, Merlin gets to give them one hell of a surprise.

OTOH, from a story writing and drama position, it might be more interesting for the good guys to start from a disadvantageous position and have to WORK to get their victory.

Sure, the "Angel" starts off with more credibility. But Safehold humanity now has a thousand years more practical experience and cynicism under their belt, not to mention a war that was a result of powerful but flawed men exploiting religion for their own gain. Unlike the original Adams and Eves, modern Safeholdians are going to be quick to notice that this "Angel" isn't a flawless, omniscient being (and depending on the "Angel", possibly not even that benign). They're going to see flaws and mistakes for what they are, and that like Merlin, this "Angel" can make mistakes. Or at least the mortals closest to the Angel will.

And this is assuming the Angel even TRIES to put the innovation genie back in the bottle.

Bluestrike2 wrote:In the Safeholdian worldview, disease isn't pestilence; it's sin. Every single example of disease is a reminder of Pasquale's intervention through his "curses." Arguably, it's the single most visible reminder of the Angels. And, amusingly, it's the most easily undermined since it's more than just bullshit explanations for natural phenomena meant to head off any questioning like you see with the sections on astronomy and gravity.

It wouldn't take much effort to improve microscope quality to the point where they're sophisticated enough to see microorganisms. At that point, you've introduced the field of microbiology since you've discovered the mechanism through which Pasquale's curses occur in the world. Once it becomes familiar to think in terms of germ, it becomes ordinary. Before long, you've started chipping away at the mysticism and mystery behind them if not destroying them outright.

Follow it up with incremental improvements in healing techniques and medicines. Better techniques will further chip away at the Writ (if there are better options, why didn't Pasquale think to mention them?) while simultaneously being very difficult to object to: it's hard to reject these sorts of advancements when they mean the difference between life and death for your children.

...

There's a huge credibility gap between any returning Angels and the Inner Circle, and it's not one that they can easily bridge. If it comes down to their word against Angels who are actually present and can actually defend themselves, Merlin and the Inner Circle will quickly lose that fight. It stacks the deck too far much against them, and there's no way Merlin would be willing to run the sort of risk that'd mean.

So, either the Reveal will happen in the next twenty years before the millennial return, or they'll figure out a way to defang any returning personalities. The only way you can do that is by taking the Temple and either pulling them from storage or disconnecting any potential tools that they can use from the Temple. Things like network connections, satellite uplinks to the OBS, prebuilt PICAs, etc. When the personality finally wakes up, Merlin gets to give them one hell of a surprise.

First of all, RFC has already established that the Safeholdian belief system covers things like microbiology (germs are really tiny demons left behind from Shan-wei's rebellion). Simply looking into a microscope is insufficient to prove the Writ wrong. The same is true for astronomy as well. All the things that poked holes in the Catholic Church's view of the universe five or six centuries ago - a view that stemmed from ignorance, guesswork, mythologizing and the absence of adequate scientific tools - cannot exist on Safehold, since the Holy Writ spoon fed the population with perfectly accurate explanations for the way the natural world works. No Safeholdian believes that Safehold is the center of the universe because the Archangels told them it orbits the sun as other planetary bodies do in the system. No Safeholdian is unaware of the causes of disease because the Archangels told of ways to combat them. No - a scientific attack on the Writ's credibility or accuracy will not suffice. Moreover, the Proscriptions of Jwo-Jeng establish that certain types of knowledge are reserved for the Archangels and God alone and that mankind must not explore them (and doing so is sinful).

Second, within the Inner Circle there is the understanding that faith cannot ultimately depend upon a lie and that a rejection of God resulting in the revelation of the truth is an acceptable spiritual risk. For the moment, they must let the lie stand until the coercive power of the CoGA is broken. The philosophical tools they are using to accomplish this are entirely secular - an appeal to both the rulers and the ruled of Safehold to reject the Church because of its corruption. And Clyntahn's atrocities only fuel that hatred even further. Yet there will always be those, even among the reformists, who would want a return to the status quo ante, to the reassertion of the Church's authority throughout Safehold, albeit with new management, and a return to the "traditional" (and familiar) lifestyle espoused by the church (which includes the re-imposition of the Strictures). Add to them all those who benefited from the previous system (like say Harchongese nobles), people fearful of the technological changes (because they experienced the horrors of technological warfare) and those who truly believed the Church was right to attempt to destroy the "heresy" and you get the people who will coalesce for the next big fight.

Thanatos' analysis suggests some interesting potential post reveal political alignments. Harchong comes to mind. South Harchong is already the economic center of the Empire. The Bureaucrats recognize this and are making accommodations. What happens when the trading families control even more wealth and the vast majority of the Empire's economic activity? Will the bureaucrats back the wealth or the political power?

I can see South Harchong aligning with Silkiah and Dohlar during the interim period before the Reveal. I suspect they will side with the Allies as a result of the Reveal. I suspect Siddermark will take northern Desnair as a buffer zone between the Gulf of Jahras and Silkiah and Siddermark proper. That will give Siddermark access to the Gulf of Dohlar via both Darnaith and North Desnair/South Siddermark.

If alliances during the interim period move in that sort of direction, North Harchong and the Temple Lands are hosed. The Allies can attack along the entire Coastline and bypass the fortified canal routes into the CoGA heartland.

thanatos wrote:

Bluestrike2 wrote:In the Safeholdian worldview, disease isn't pestilence; it's sin. Every single example of disease is a reminder of Pasquale's intervention through his "curses." Arguably, it's the single most visible reminder of the Angels. And, amusingly, it's the most easily undermined since it's more than just bullshit explanations for natural phenomena meant to head off any questioning like you see with the sections on astronomy and gravity.

It wouldn't take much effort to improve microscope quality to the point where they're sophisticated enough to see microorganisms. At that point, you've introduced the field of microbiology since you've discovered the mechanism through which Pasquale's curses occur in the world. Once it becomes familiar to think in terms of germ, it becomes ordinary. Before long, you've started chipping away at the mysticism and mystery behind them if not destroying them outright.

Follow it up with incremental improvements in healing techniques and medicines. Better techniques will further chip away at the Writ (if there are better options, why didn't Pasquale think to mention them?) while simultaneously being very difficult to object to: it's hard to reject these sorts of advancements when they mean the difference between life and death for your children.

...

There's a huge credibility gap between any returning Angels and the Inner Circle, and it's not one that they can easily bridge. If it comes down to their word against Angels who are actually present and can actually defend themselves, Merlin and the Inner Circle will quickly lose that fight. It stacks the deck too far much against them, and there's no way Merlin would be willing to run the sort of risk that'd mean.

So, either the Reveal will happen in the next twenty years before the millennial return, or they'll figure out a way to defang any returning personalities. The only way you can do that is by taking the Temple and either pulling them from storage or disconnecting any potential tools that they can use from the Temple. Things like network connections, satellite uplinks to the OBS, prebuilt PICAs, etc. When the personality finally wakes up, Merlin gets to give them one hell of a surprise.

First of all, RFC has already established that the Safeholdian belief system covers things like microbiology (germs are really tiny demons left behind from Shan-wei's rebellion). Simply looking into a microscope is insufficient to prove the Writ wrong. The same is true for astronomy as well. All the things that poked holes in the Catholic Church's view of the universe five or six centuries ago - a view that stemmed from ignorance, guesswork, mythologizing and the absence of adequate scientific tools - cannot exist on Safehold, since the Holy Writ spoon fed the population with perfectly accurate explanations for the way the natural world works. No Safeholdian believes that Safehold is the center of the universe because the Archangels told them it orbits the sun as other planetary bodies do in the system. No Safeholdian is unaware of the causes of disease because the Archangels told of ways to combat them. No - a scientific attack on the Writ's credibility or accuracy will not suffice. Moreover, the Proscriptions of Jwo-Jeng establish that certain types of knowledge are reserved for the Archangels and God alone and that mankind must not explore them (and doing so is sinful).

Second, within the Inner Circle there is the understanding that faith cannot ultimately depend upon a lie and that a rejection of God resulting in the revelation of the truth is an acceptable spiritual risk. For the moment, they must let the lie stand until the coercive power of the CoGA is broken. The philosophical tools they are using to accomplish this are entirely secular - an appeal to both the rulers and the ruled of Safehold to reject the Church because of its corruption. And Clyntahn's atrocities only fuel that hatred even further. Yet there will always be those, even among the reformists, who would want a return to the status quo ante, to the reassertion of the Church's authority throughout Safehold, albeit with new management, and a return to the "traditional" (and familiar) lifestyle espoused by the church (which includes the re-imposition of the Strictures). Add to them all those who benefited from the previous system (like say Harchongese nobles), people fearful of the technological changes (because they experienced the horrors of technological warfare) and those who truly believed the Church was right to attempt to destroy the "heresy" and you get the people who will coalesce for the next big fight.

Very nice post, Thanatos... Yes, there are going to be those who want to return to the way things were prior to the war with more worthy management in Zion. In fact I suspect that will be a majority of people on Safehold.

But it's not going to happen. Although there will continue to be those who embreace the old beliefs in Siddarmark and the EOC, for the majority in those lands, Zion, particularly the inquisition is no longer welcome.

So what we have is going to be a split with Harchong, Desmair and the Temple Lands on the one side and the EOC and Siddarmark on the other.

Dohlar and Silkiah will be up for grabs, eventually embracing the EOC and Siddarmark. The other smaller kingdoms such as the borderlands, Delferak and Sodar will be more conservative by nature, but favor whichever side they need to to keep them out of trouble.

So what we face following the fighting is a cold war, or perhaps better stated is a stress filled peace until the next round of conflict, perhaps kicked off by the Reveal.

Don

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PeterZ wrote:Thanatos' analysis suggests some interesting potential post reveal political alignments. Harchong comes to mind. South Harchong is already the economic center of the Empire. The Bureaucrats recognize this and are making accommodations. What happens when the trading families control even more wealth and the vast majority of the Empire's economic activity? Will the bureaucrats back the wealth or the political power?

I can see South Harchong aligning with Silkiah and Dohlar during the interim period before the Reveal. I suspect they will side with the Allies as a result of the Reveal. I suspect Siddermark will take northern Desnair as a buffer zone between the Gulf of Jahras and Silkiah and Siddermark proper. That will give Siddermark access to the Gulf of Dohlar via both Darnaith and North Desnair/South Siddermark.

If alliances during the interim period move in that sort of direction, North Harchong and the Temple Lands are hosed. The Allies can attack along the entire Coastline and bypass the fortified canal routes into the CoGA heartland.

Interesting comment about South Dohlar, Peter. I had forgotten about that. Also, following the war, I would expect the EOC to keep bases in the Gulf of Dohlar to encourage the children to behave.

Don

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Here's another likely cold war polity, the Grand Duchy of Kohlman. I can see Sharley offering this as a compromise to Protector Stohnar's demand for territory concessions from Desnair. I believe all parties will settle for the Grand Duchy of Kohlman under the old Duke (who abdicated after the ICN destroyed the IDN) as a Charisian protectorate rather than a Siddermarkan province.

thanatos wrote:

Bluestrike2 wrote:In the Safeholdian worldview, disease isn't pestilence; it's sin. Every single example of disease is a reminder of Pasquale's intervention through his "curses." Arguably, it's the single most visible reminder of the Angels. And, amusingly, it's the most easily undermined since it's more than just bullshit explanations for natural phenomena meant to head off any questioning like you see with the sections on astronomy and gravity. (SNIP)

First of all, RFC has already established that the Safeholdian belief system covers things like microbiology (germs are really tiny demons left behind from Shan-wei's rebellion). Simply looking into a microscope is insufficient to prove the Writ wrong. The same is true for astronomy as well. All the things that poked holes in the Catholic Church's view of the universe five or six centuries ago - a view that stemmed from ignorance, guesswork, mythologizing and the absence of adequate scientific tools - cannot exist on Safehold, since the Holy Writ spoon fed the population with perfectly accurate explanations for the way the natural world works. No Safeholdian believes that Safehold is the center of the universe because the Archangels told them it orbits the sun as other planetary bodies do in the system. (SNIP)

_Off Armageddon Reef_ states otherwise. There is an earlier mention in the scenes set immediately before the destruction of the Alexandria Enclave; but chapter VII for August 890 mentions that the Book of Hastings included the Ptolemaic theory of the universe, with Safehold in the middle of the crystal spheres rather than forgotten Earth.

Robert_A_Woodward wrote:

thanatos wrote:
First of all, RFC has already established that the Safeholdian belief system covers things like microbiology (germs are really tiny demons left behind from Shan-wei's rebellion). Simply looking into a microscope is insufficient to prove the Writ wrong. The same is true for astronomy as well. All the things that poked holes in the Catholic Church's view of the universe five or six centuries ago - a view that stemmed from ignorance, guesswork, mythologizing and the absence of adequate scientific tools - cannot exist on Safehold, since the Holy Writ spoon fed the population with perfectly accurate explanations for the way the natural world works. No Safeholdian believes that Safehold is the center of the universe because the Archangels told them it orbits the sun as other planetary bodies do in the system. (SNIP)

_Off Armageddon Reef_ states otherwise. There is an earlier mention in the scenes set immediately before the destruction of the Alexandria Enclave; but chapter VII for August 890 mentions that the Book of Hastings included the Ptolemaic theory of the universe, with Safehold in the middle of the crystal spheres rather than forgotten Earth.

Now that you mention it, I too remember this passage. If that is the case, if in fact the Holy Writ makes such a clearly false statement that can be tested (and falsified) with a powerful telescope, then that becomes a scientific crowbar with which the Royal Collage can pry the Writ open with. I think RFC will correct this mistake however, just as he corrected the assertion that only the Book of Chihiro was added to the Writ following the War Against the Fallen. After all, the whole point of the Holy Writ injunctions on so many things was to prevent the emergence of the sort of thinking that would question established wisdom. If established wisdom is proven to be correct every time it is tested, then people stop questioning it as true (and start to question the motives or the competence of those who espouse it). Leaving such a loose end untied seems awfully foolish of Chihiro and Schueler.

thanatos wrote:

Robert_A_Woodward wrote:
(re: statement that the Writ had Safehold in orbit about its sun)

_Off Armageddon Reef_ states otherwise. There is an earlier mention in the scenes set immediately before the destruction of the Alexandria Enclave; but chapter VII for August 890 mentions that the Book of Hastings included the Ptolemaic theory of the universe, with Safehold in the middle of the crystal spheres rather than forgotten Earth.

Now that you mention it, I too remember this passage. If that is the case, if in fact the Holy Writ makes such a clearly false statement that can be tested (and falsified) with a powerful telescope, then that becomes a scientific crowbar with which the Royal Collage can pry the Writ open with. I think RFC will correct this mistake however, just as he corrected the assertion that only the Book of Chihiro was added to the Writ following the War Against the Fallen. (snip)

It doesn't take a powerful telescope; it takes years of accurate observations and careful calculations. Not easy to do with Roman numerals and inconsistent inches.