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Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk

This fascinating series is a combination of historical seafaring, swashbuckling adventure, and high technological science-fiction. Join us in a discussion!
Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by Peter2   » Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:32 pm

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PeterZ wrote:No, Don. I am not over thinking this.
Clyntahn can't be irrational and climb the Inquisition's ladder of power. He must have some understanding of how to analyze and then manipulate the world around him to accomplish that climb. In OAR he is recognized by the other 3 on the G4 as very intelligent. They got bamboozled into declaring jihad and giving Clyntahn absolute power. An openly irrational Clyntahn COULDN'T have tricked consummate politicians/bureaucrats into giving up their power. He must be an intelligent and shrewd politician that recognizes reality.

If he can recognize reality and he doesn't care a fig about theology, he could have declared jihad on Charis' rebellion and copied their innovations. That he did not suggests a belief in the Proscriptions or a serious flaw in his intelligence.

[snip]


My immediate impression on reading OAR all those years ago was that the thing that got Clyntahn all riled up was that (a) Charis was getting too powerful, and (b) was too far away for the Go4 to exert immediate and effective control over it. IMO it needed both factors to push him over the edge. The guy was (and is) a brutal bully whose drug is power and control, and he kicked off because he couldn't take the fact that his "bullyee" was not within reach.

I'll accept that he's cunning but I'm not at all sure he's intelligent. He's blinkered, and I don't get the impression he can think too far ahead and assess the consequences of his actions.
.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:50 pm

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JeffEngel wrote:It depends on which way you're running the identity relationship there. I'd like to suggest that Clyntahn's interpretation of the Writ is going to flex, however it really has to, to accommodate what he wants and needs. He's going to adopt innovation, as far as he has to, but he's doing it grudgingly and with the need to have the weakening of his power base that the lax attitude to the Proscriptions this entails recovered elsewhere, in more fear of him and the Inquisition.

He really does suffer a loss of power when the Proscriptions are routinely, casually, consistently waived or at least considered not violated by any and all necessary innovations. The gatekeeper hasn't got much power when the gates are propped open for the crowd rushing through them. He'll accept that, yes, because the alternative is losing more of Safehold from the grasp of the Inquisition, but it's a high cost he'll pay if he gets enough out of it, not something he regards as trivial.


Your view assumes that Clyntahn is not nearly as smart as he had been depicted in the early books. If he sets up the Inquisition as the gatekeepers of innovation, he can "own" all forms of innovation and use them at his convenience. Think about Father Paityr and his office of patents, but instead of assigning patents to the inventors, he logs the innovations and taxes their use. The patent fees go not to the innovators but to the inquisition. Perhaps there is an additional fee paid to the innovator or some sort of tithe rebate.

That would mean he would be even more in control of the really important sources of political and economic power. So, he is again either not that smart of a true believer in the sanctity of orthodoxy.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by JeffEngel   » Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:52 pm

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Peter2 wrote:
PeterZ wrote:No, Don. I am not over thinking this.
Clyntahn can't be irrational and climb the Inquisition's ladder of power. He must have some understanding of how to analyze and then manipulate the world around him to accomplish that climb. In OAR he is recognized by the other 3 on the G4 as very intelligent. They got bamboozled into declaring jihad and giving Clyntahn absolute power. An openly irrational Clyntahn COULDN'T have tricked consummate politicians/bureaucrats into giving up their power. He must be an intelligent and shrewd politician that recognizes reality.

If he can recognize reality and he doesn't care a fig about theology, he could have declared jihad on Charis' rebellion and copied their innovations. That he did not suggests a belief in the Proscriptions or a serious flaw in his intelligence.

[snip]


My immediate impression on reading OAR all those years ago was that the thing that got Clyntahn all riled up was that (a) Charis was getting too powerful, and (b) was too far away for the Go4 to exert immediate and effective control over it. IMO it needed both factors to push him over the edge. The guy was (and is) a brutal bully whose drug is power and control, and he kicked off because he couldn't take the fact that his "bullyee" was not within reach.

I'll accept that he's cunning but I'm not at all sure he's intelligent. He's blinkered, and I don't get the impression he can think too far ahead and assess the consequences of his actions.
.

The man does have epic blind spots. If you think that intelligence demands open-mindedness and a perfectly clear head, then he's definitely not going to count. At that point though, we're into a verbal dispute and if there's going to be any progress, it's got to be treated as such.

Me, I'm content to use the word 'intelligent' still to describe someone who is unwilling or psychologically powerfully opposed to considering certain things. Clyntahn doesn't think that personal fear can be trumped by other motivations: if someone's not doing what they're told, they're not frightened enough of the consequences of disobedience. He's not willing to entertain the notion that God's not on his side. It's not a matter of not having the brains to grasp alternative notions there - it's not having a brain that's willing to go down the paths to taking such alternatives seriously. Rationality isn't the same as intelligence - not as I would use either term. But the tenor of the discussion suggests that's not how others are using 'intelligent'.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:58 pm

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JeffEngel wrote:
Peter2 wrote:
My immediate impression on reading OAR all those years ago was that the thing that got Clyntahn all riled up was that (a) Charis was getting too powerful, and (b) was too far away for the Go4 to exert immediate and effective control over it. IMO it needed both factors to push him over the edge. The guy was (and is) a brutal bully whose drug is power and control, and he kicked off because he couldn't take the fact that his "bullyee" was not within reach.

I'll accept that he's cunning but I'm not at all sure he's intelligent. He's blinkered, and I don't get the impression he can think too far ahead and assess the consequences of his actions.
.

The man does have epic blind spots. If you think that intelligence demands open-mindedness and a perfectly clear head, then he's definitely not going to count. At that point though, we're into a verbal dispute and if there's going to be any progress, it's got to be treated as such.

Me, I'm content to use the word 'intelligent' still to describe someone who is unwilling or psychologically powerfully opposed to considering certain things. Clyntahn doesn't think that personal fear can be trumped by other motivations: if someone's not doing what they're told, they're not frightened enough of the consequences of disobedience. He's not willing to entertain the notion that God's not on his side. It's not a matter of not having the brains to grasp alternative notions there - it's not having a brain that's willing to go down the paths to taking such alternatives seriously. Rationality isn't the same as intelligence - not as I would use either term. But the tenor of the discussion suggests that's not how others are using 'intelligent'.


Agree with your definition.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by JeffEngel   » Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:01 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
JeffEngel wrote:It depends on which way you're running the identity relationship there. I'd like to suggest that Clyntahn's interpretation of the Writ is going to flex, however it really has to, to accommodate what he wants and needs. He's going to adopt innovation, as far as he has to, but he's doing it grudgingly and with the need to have the weakening of his power base that the lax attitude to the Proscriptions this entails recovered elsewhere, in more fear of him and the Inquisition.

He really does suffer a loss of power when the Proscriptions are routinely, casually, consistently waived or at least considered not violated by any and all necessary innovations. The gatekeeper hasn't got much power when the gates are propped open for the crowd rushing through them. He'll accept that, yes, because the alternative is losing more of Safehold from the grasp of the Inquisition, but it's a high cost he'll pay if he gets enough out of it, not something he regards as trivial.


Your view assumes that Clyntahn is not nearly as smart as he had been depicted in the early books. If he sets up the Inquisition as the gatekeepers of innovation, he can "own" all forms of innovation and use them at his convenience. Think about Father Paityr and his office of patents, but instead of assigning patents to the inventors, he logs the innovations and taxes their use. The patent fees go not to the innovators but to the inquisition. Perhaps there is an additional fee paid to the innovator or some sort of tithe rebate.

That would mean he would be even more in control of the really important sources of political and economic power. So, he is again either not that smart of a true believer in the sanctity of orthodoxy.

Or that he doesn't assign a high value to the power of money relative to terror. He doesn't want to be collecting fees - he wants to be collecting obedience, as the alternative to having yourself and your loved ones tortured to death. It also supposes that he's so flexible that he's willing to abandon the idea that innovation is to be, all else being equal, discouraged. He thinks the gates should be kept closed as much as possible, and power comes from that, and opening them at need be, and terror.

If you think he cannot possibly be smart and also unwilling to make some wholesale revisions in the foundations of the Writ as he understands it, then I suspect you're loading a lot more into being smart than I would. I think someone can darned well be smart and crazy at once, and Clyntahn is. He's lacking in a lot of other virtues, intellectual and otherwise, but (blinkered) intelligence isn't one of them.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:43 pm

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JeffEngel wrote:
PeterZ wrote:
Your view assumes that Clyntahn is not nearly as smart as he had been depicted in the early books. If he sets up the Inquisition as the gatekeepers of innovation, he can "own" all forms of innovation and use them at his convenience. Think about Father Paityr and his office of patents, but instead of assigning patents to the inventors, he logs the innovations and taxes their use. The patent fees go not to the innovators but to the inquisition. Perhaps there is an additional fee paid to the innovator or some sort of tithe rebate.

That would mean he would be even more in control of the really important sources of political and economic power. So, he is again either not that smart of a true believer in the sanctity of orthodoxy.

Or that he doesn't assign a high value to the power of money relative to terror. He doesn't want to be collecting fees - he wants to be collecting obedience, as the alternative to having yourself and your loved ones tortured to death. It also supposes that he's so flexible that he's willing to abandon the idea that innovation is to be, all else being equal, discouraged. He thinks the gates should be kept closed as much as possible, and power comes from that, and opening them at need be, and terror.

If you think he cannot possibly be smart and also unwilling to make some wholesale revisions in the foundations of the Writ as he understands it, then I suspect you're loading a lot more into being smart than I would. I think someone can darned well be smart and crazy at once, and Clyntahn is. He's lacking in a lot of other virtues, intellectual and otherwise, but (blinkered) intelligence isn't one of them.


You miss my point. He can have it all; fear, obedience and power. He can have power by controlling innovation though the office of the Inquisition. He can both threaten to deny the use or ability to produce with approved innovations to compel obedience. He also has the ability to financially and economically destroy not just individuals but entire countries in addition to killing and torturing individuals.

Because he can't see these possibilities that means he is either not that intelligent or is a true believer. That he couldn't see it at first is excusable. After Father Paityr and Charis gave him the roadmap with their office of patents? Not so much. If he were smart AND did not really believe in orthodoxy, he would have adopted that source of power to augment the power he already had quick as a wink.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by n7axw   » Wed Nov 25, 2015 3:21 pm

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PeterZ wrote:No, Don. I am not over thinking this.
Clyntahn can't be irrational and climb the Inquisition's ladder of power. He must have some understanding of how to analyze and then manipulate the world around him to accomplish that climb. In OAR he is recognized by the other 3 on the G4 as very intelligent. They got bamboozled into declaring jihad and giving Clyntahn absolute power. An openly irrational Clyntahn COULDN'T have tricked consummate politicians/bureaucrats into giving up their power. He must be an intelligent and shrewd politician that recognizes reality.

If he can recognize reality and he doesn't care a fig about theology, he could have declared jihad on Charis' rebellion and copied their innovations. That he did not suggests a belief in the Proscriptions or a serious flaw in his intelligence.



Without retracting my "character reference," I am cheerfully willing to admit that the truth of the matter is more complex than I portrayed it.

I won't say he doesn't care about theology. What I will say is that he has assigned himself the role of being sole arbitrator over what it is. Sinse his personality is rigid and not prone to change, his take is "orthodox" and what adjustments he makes are only done reluctantly, particularly if its not his idea. Is he a "true believer?" In the sense I described, yes. But Peter, I have pastored people in my parishes who were believers in that sense. It's like learning the rules to chess without having any feel for the game. They can talk loudly about such things as theology and morality and be utterly certain that the entire enterprise collapses if things don't go their way. It's as though they are "defending God" ((who really doesn't need their help) when their idea of what God is like is so far out in left field that it's in the parking lot, not the stadium.

As for sanity, that is a matter of degree. I'm not claiming that he is so far gone and so divorced from reality that he needs to be kept in a straitjacket to avoid walking into walls or falling down stairs. What I'm saying is that he is the perfect example of someone doing the same thing over and over again and apparently expecting a different result the next time he tries it. His mindset doesn't lend itself to an approach that says "opps. I screwed that up. Maybe I need a better idea for the next round." So he rides the plan down in flames and blames others for not properly carrying out his wishes rather than admitting he screwed up with a bad idea to start with. In that sense, yes, he is divorced from reality and to the extent he is divorced from reality he is insane. But it is a matter of degree, not absolutes.

As for intelligence, we have textev describing him as brilliant. But intelligence is only one ingredient in the stew and not always the most important one. I've known brilliant people who didn't have any practical sense at all. The value of intelligence is pretty much proportional to the willingness to apply it to the situation at hand. In Clyntahn's case, his paranoia seems more important than his smarts right now.

Don

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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by n7axw   » Wed Nov 25, 2015 4:01 pm

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lyonheart wrote:Hi guys,

Sorry, this is my first post in a couple month's due to internet and computer problems besides being busier than I'd like, but such is life.

I'd like to thank the very many many excellent comments throughout this thread for their insights, but make a few points of my own.

Thirsk's primary concerns are his family, his navy, and his country, and Merlin must deal with all of them, and I believe in that order.

I agree with those who feel Merlin must tell Thirsk his family is alive first, to be as forthright from the beginning as possible [unless his daughters insisted he wait etc], then given that Merlin can't leave any physical letter or memento from Thirsk's daughters or grandchildren behind, where it would be found by the valet or someone else before Thirsk woke up, even if it was in one of his pockets, and burning it immediately after reading in the fireplace is also contraindicated; it seems far more likely Merlin will haul out a com, explain as Thirsk already knows, that the ancient or early seijins had received archangel blessed machines to communicate with each other over long distances, and its called a 'com' for short.

If Thirsk asks where Merlin's came from, he can honestly answer the same place their's did.

Showing his daughters and their families alive, talking to him in real time, moving, etc from aboard Destiny [on the way back to Claw Island] would be the best antidote to Thirsk's binge drinking and depression; though Merlin might inject some anti- alcohol agents and inhibitors to help sober him up more quickly, so he wakes up feeling a lot better than in 5days.

I suspect Merlin would offer sanctuary at either the Tellesburg palace or cathedral after the oncoming hurricane season on Claw Island, and those comments regarding it being the safest place are spot on.

Once his concern for his family has been ameliorated, preserving his navy, which he knows is doomed, will be Thirsk's second priority.

Merlin doesn't have to make mysterious hints or describe the 'City' class ironclads; Thirsk knows the Dreadnought is a 3 year old design, having probably found the ship's hull plate etc; his nightmares have probably been filled with imagining what blue water versions of the coastal ironclads the ICN has come up with since, though none will prepare him for the KHVII's.

It'll be interesting if we read anymore from his report on the Dreadnought, or discussions with Maik or Zhwaigair.

The appearance of the two replacement Rottweilers soon will encourage caution by the RDN, but I can't help wondering if a stretched Rottweiler with a pair of double expansion engines and 1-5 days of coal could be quite useful, which might result from converting the last ones on the stocks, steaming mainly for battle.

HFQ has Howsmyn thinking a couple more month's would be good timing for the KHVII's back in August, and that they could reach the Gulf of Dohlar in 24 days refueling at Port Royal, so we might see them in action before the end of October, if not then surely in November, much too soon to miss out on encouraging Dohlar to ditch Clytahn and the inquisition.

Since Ironhill got the word about the Mohryah Lode in August of last year, the EoC's financial constraints that reduced the KHVII's to only three initially has been eliminated, so I expect several more were quickly laid down, depending more on the number of large building slips available, thus the next batch has caught up with first so I won't be surprised if instead of 3 we have 6 or even 8 BB's greeting the RDN's western fleet [half or ~30 galleons?] sooner than most expect, with another 6-8 not that far behind.

Given the new steel works we've been hearing about since HFaF at Tellesburg, Maikelberg, and Lake Lyman, that are or were as big as Delthak, the steel shortage for all of the empire's projects ought to be alleviated rather soon.

Besides these, there are the steam powered colliers and freighters, troop ships and animal transports, that can be built much more quickly while carrying several thousand tons of cargo to keep up and supply them with the coal, food, ammunition and spare parts etc they need, NTM space for POW's.

Given the inner circle's interest in preserving Thirsk's power base, coming up with a plan that demonstrates how outclassed the RDN is, along with what's left of the rest of the Go4's navies, so the admiral is compelled to surrender to spare his men, seems the most likely plan.

How RFC accomplishes this will be fascinating.
I have my own ideas, but the odds are strongly against them being the same as his.

However, once the western RDN has been removed from play, I don't believe the KHVII's will immediately steam for Gorath Bay.

Rather, the semaphore communication nexus at Dairnyth needs to be taken out first; along with all the messenger wyvernries along both shores of the Bay of Bess, and the Mahthyw Passage, to reduce the potential alternate communications, courtesy of the seijin network; they don't have to kill the cute birdie analogs, just open the cages with bolt cutters and let them fly home. ;)

Cutting the semaphore links ought to at least double the time loop for messages between Zion and GC from around 14 hours to nearer 28 [given slower night transmission rates], quite aside from cutting most of Howard from Haven, while the longest internal Dohlaran semaphore messages would be about 4, after the Dohlaran government seizes its internal semaphore lines to protect them in the face of the erupting chaos.

Clyntahn may well recognize Thirsk is a greater threat than before, but if he stays quiet, his reputation might protect him for the short time left before things come apart; though the inquisition assassins would run afoul of the 'fist of god' [FoG] who 'missed' Thirsk thanks to Owl and Nahrmahn. ;)

The sharing of lists of Dohlaran agent inquisitors is a good suggestion, since SNARC's following each inquisitor as they reveal themselves ought to be pretty easy.

Kharmych and the other intendants and inquisitors may have plans and orders to take control if things get worse, which might include having Rahnyld IV abdicate with Thorast as regent, which might go badly and the inquisition blamed for killing the king that outrages the public on top of everything else and a general reaction against the Go4.

Then again, the 'FoG' might strike at the inquisition's leadership as well as pruning its rank and file before Thirsk and friends are ready, to preempt them, as directed by Nahrmahn, Nynian and OWL to decapitate their command and control.

The FoG has yet to be reported using mines, rifles and booby-traps, ie killing at a distance where there might also be civilian casualties; so Dohlar and GC might be firsts in that respect, but there would be many external observers of all this, thinking of their own situations, particularly in the Border States.

Sorry, this is too long already!

Hopefully more later today.

L



Hi Lyonheart,

I've missed your posting and hope to see more of your posts in the future.

For my own part, I would think that giving Thirsk a com would not be a good idea. It implies knowledge for which he has not been prepared and he is at heart very devout. Best to give him a letter from his daughters whose hand writing he would recognise along with the assurance that they are safe. The basic point would be to make him understand that the fate of his family need no longer factor into his decision making.

Otherwise, how Dohlar deals with the inquisition, given how closely they seem to have their thumb on things in Dohlar is a bit of a puzzler. We've been kicking around thoughts, but I wonder if finally the way it happens if when Dohlar collapses militarily from Hanth's pressure and/or the arrival of the ICNin Gorath Bay with the Charisians cleaning out the inquisitors..

Finally, wyverns "cute bird analogs??" More like oversized hawks or eagles. Those suckers Nahrman was breeding were probably big enough to carry pakages and could snip off fingers if not hands.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by JeffEngel   » Wed Nov 25, 2015 4:20 pm

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PeterZ wrote:You miss my point. He can have it all; fear, obedience and power. He can have power by controlling innovation though the office of the Inquisition. He can both threaten to deny the use or ability to produce with approved innovations to compel obedience. He also has the ability to financially and economically destroy not just individuals but entire countries in addition to killing and torturing individuals.

Because he can't see these possibilities that means he is either not that intelligent or is a true believer. That he couldn't see it at first is excusable. After Father Paityr and Charis gave him the roadmap with their office of patents? Not so much. If he were smart AND did not really believe in orthodoxy, he would have adopted that source of power to augment the power he already had quick as a wink.

I don't think he would quite agree that he'd really have the terror value in hand if he turned the Inquisition into a licensing agency. I think he's aware that, if people are allowed to use innovations based on a Church license, they're going to be very difficult to rein in by withholding that license to "break" them. I think he sees that they would likely shrug and either evade the fees - like tithes that lose a lot of value from Harchongese corruption, to take even his favorite country - or break from the Church, or at least recognition of Inquisitional authority, in that case.

He's not seeing Paityr Wylsynn as the power behind the Charisian throne, the man with the ability to break them if they get out of line. He's looking at Wylsynn, fairly accurately, as a rubber-stamp clerk. He doesn't aspire to being a rubber-stamp clerk - not even an obscenely wealthy one - and he doesn't take it as part of God's plan that the Inquisition becomes an organization of such.

As it stands, he's grudgingly permitting these innovations, purely in the service of his jihad, so there's a kind of recognition of the Inquisition's power, but he's looking forward to the end of the jihad and the resumption of the role of the Inquisition in limiting innovation, the way the Writ intends. That's in fair measure the point of the exercise, but it means that he's got to keep the innovators afraid and he's got to be ready to prune them back afterward for victory to mean enough.

Do you want to say that that makes him less than a true believer in orthodoxy maybe?

Also, what Don said. :)
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Re: Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk (SPOILERS)
Post by JeffEngel   » Wed Nov 25, 2015 4:31 pm

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n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

I've missed your posting and hope to see more of your posts in the future.
Yeah, what Don said again!
For my own part, I would think that giving Thirsk a com would not be a good idea. It implies knowledge for which he has not been prepared and he is at heart very devout. Best to give him a letter from his daughters whose hand writing he would recognise along with the assurance that they are safe. The basic point would be to make him understand that the fate of his family need no longer factor into his decision making.
I'd had that as my first thoughts too, but then it occurred to me that Merlin gave Hahrahld the com in OAR when he really, really had to and with reluctance but still inside the "seijin Merlin has visions" approximate layer of the Safehold onion. It's a good bit more than he'd like to introduce Thirsk to, I'm sure, but there may be enough need here too for him to suck that up.

I was also concerned about it as being something to be caught with, even worse than the letter lyonheart is reasonably very concerned about. A small, concealable com - like the later ones Cayleb and Sharleyan got - would help address that concern, but they're by the same token even harder to take in as the introduction to TF/"angelic" technology.
Otherwise, how Dohlar deals with the inquisition, given how closely they seem to have their thumb on things in Dohlar is a bit of a puzzler. We've been kicking around thoughts, but I wonder if finally the way it happens if when Dohlar collapses militarily from Hanth's pressure and/or the arrival of the ICNin Gorath Bay with the Charisians cleaning out the inquisitors..
In a near-worst-case scenario, that may be it. I suppose some prep work so that certain Dohlarans are very ready to do that may be in order. In a way, that's how it worked out for Emerald: clear, overwhelming military defeat with occupation imminent, followed by arrangements to keep the Inquisition from keeping you from making the softest landing possible still. Not a bad description of Tarot's case either, or Zebediah's.

Finally, wyverns "cute bird analogs??" More like oversized hawks or eagles. Those suckers Nahrman was breeding were probably big enough to carry pakages and could snip off fingers if not hands.

Don

-

I'm sure their mothers love them. Pretty sure?

... Willing to hope?
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