Syrian Refugee Crisis--Symptom-Solution

T2M, their religion is not a concern to me, but it is to those fighting in the area. For many groups you don't just have to be Muslim, or even a Shia or Sunny, but of a narrow splinter of one. If not you get given a bullet, not a gun.

As to the solution, all things pass and eventually this will be history, and there will be another humanitarian crisis. Best we can do is to protect the innocent, eradicate the guilty, but ensure that we don't change our laws and become the bad guys in the process.

Daryl wrote:I've read this opinion before elsewhere and wonder at the logic. Firstly a bit sexist and ageist, why only males of a certain age?
Secondly, how are they going to fight for their country? Which of the many religious sects will they join? What if they are atheist, christian, or buddist?
If they don't fit into a mould they wouldn't last a day, and even if they did it would just make the multi sided conflict worse. A couple of young Australians (male & female) went stupidly over there a year ago, joined an islamic armed group and were dead in a week when their group were exterminated by a bigger faction over some ideology.

The USA has a military draft of able bodied males of military age. It is not currently active but even so all able bodied males of military age must register under penalty of law. And should the situation occur that the country needs to be defended the registration will be activated and those able bodied males of military age will have to fight whether they like it or not. Sooner or later (the way things are going, likely sooner). Young people (mostly male) from other countries most likely Russia, France, Jordan, the USA will be present boots on the ground fighting and dying in Syria. It is not unreasonable to expect the Syrians to do the same FOR THEIR OWN COUNTRY. That doesn't mean they just need to be dumped at the border to be slaughtered. One possibility could be the Kurds. They have a functional army. Transportation to the Kurds could be provided to as many Syrian able bodied men of military age as the Kurds are willing to accept.

biochem wrote:It is not unreasonable to expect the Syrians to do the same FOR THEIR OWN COUNTRY.

I think it's not unreasonable to guess that, considering current events, that they don't feel any loyalty to their country. Syria is a majority Sunni country ruled by an Alawite minority. Therefore it's not unexpected that that majority isn't running to the colours of the Assad regime, they don't have any stake in the system for it to be worthwhile defending it.

The same thing's happened in Iraq - the Shia dominated government isn't trusted by the Sunni majority. The Kurds are different again and also don't trust Bagdad and are likewise distrusted by the Sunni tribes.

Then add in Turkey which views the Kurds as a threat to their territorial integrity and is taking the opportunity to have a go at them. Again. Likewise Anatolian Turkey isn't trusted by the Arabs, who remember their treatment in the old Ottoman Empire. And finally you have Iran - Persian, not Arab, and Shia rather than Sunni.

It reminds me of the cliche of the "Mexican Standoff". Perhaps it should be renamed the "Middle Eastern Standoff"!!

Mike.

The E wrote:<snip extremely accurate comic>

Ha... I was so going to post that myself...

To pull the Syrians back out of Guns Guns Guns and back into their own thread...

If ISIS had not thought of inserting terrorists into the Syrian refugees, they certainly know about the idea now! Now that it has occurred to them I suspect they will try it. So how to vet refugees to pick out which ones are ISIS plants is not going to be easy.

Documentation isn't going to work. These are people fleeing from a war zone. Documentation can be faked and is being faked and there really isn't a good way of confirming documents. Even genuine refugees are faking documents. If you fled your country with nothing but the clothes on your back and then found yourselves in a situation where documents were demanded wouldn't you get a hold of fakes?

One of the most effective techniques is detailed interviews with experts trained in behavioral analysis. A well trained expert can pick up on body language and other clues that will allow them to flag suspect individuals for a more detailed look. There are two major problems with the technique however...

1. It required well trained experts who speak the same language as the refugees for maximum effectiveness. We don't have nearly as many as we need. Perhaps the Israelis will loan us some?

2. We are trusting the experts and the experts themselves need to be vetted. I don't trust the government to do this basically because of their poor performance to date. Major Nidel Hasan comes to mind as well as the more recent information that 72 employees of Homeland security are on the terrorist watch list!

Last week Senator/Pres-candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL)
said that if we admitted ten thousand Syrian refugees,
and a single one was an ISIS agent,
then we have a Problem.

Biochem says below that we need help with such problems.

Me, I know where we can find at least nine thousand nine
hundred ninety people who can help us with this problem!

Furthermore, when they have helped us with *that*,
they will still be here to help us with similar problems!

HTM, PHL
The People, YES! Trust The People!
Carl Sandburg & Tom Jefferson

biochem wrote:
If ISIS had not thought of inserting terrorists into the Syrian refugees, they certainly know about the idea now! Now that it has occurred to them I suspect they will try it. So how to vet refugees to pick out which ones are ISIS plants is not going to be easy.

Documentation isn't going to work. These are people fleeing from a war zone. Documentation can be faked and is being faked and there really isn't a good way of confirming documents. Even genuine refugees are faking documents. If you fled your country with nothing but the clothes on your back and then found yourselves in a situation where documents were demanded wouldn't you get a hold of fakes?

One of the most effective techniques is detailed interviews with experts trained in behavioral analysis. A well trained expert can pick up on body language and other clues that will allow them to flag suspect individuals for a more detailed look. There are two major problems with the technique however...

1. It required well trained experts who speak the same language as the refugees for maximum effectiveness. We don't have nearly as many as we need. Perhaps the Israelis will loan us some?

2. We are trusting the experts and the experts themselves need to be vetted. I don't trust the government to do this basically because of their poor performance to date. Major Nidel Hasan comes to mind as well as the more recent information that 72 employees of Homeland security are on the terrorist watch list!

Michael, one nit-pick:
in Iraq the Sunni-Arabs are not a *majority* - they
number one/fifth of the populations.
It is the Shi-ite Arabs who have the majority, with
three/fifths, which is why they rule, democratically.
The Kurds, also Sunni, are the other fifth.

Other than that I agree with what you said,
except that Mexican Standoffs end quickly,
with both parties dead,
but a Middle-East Situation goes on and on and on ....

HTM

Michael Riddell wrote:
I think it's not unreasonable to guess that, considering current events, that they don't feel any loyalty to their country. Syria is a majority Sunni country ruled by an Alawite minority. Therefore it's not unexpected that that majority isn't running to the colours of the Assad regime, they don't have any stake in the system for it to be worthwhile defending it.

The same thing's happened in Iraq - the Shia dominated government isn't trusted by the Sunni *majority*. The Kurds are different again and also don't trust Bagdad and are likewise distrusted by the Sunni tribes.

Then add in Turkey which views the Kurds as a threat to their territorial integrity and is taking the opportunity to have a go at them. Again. Likewise Anatolian Turkey isn't trusted by the Arabs, who remember their treatment in the old Ottoman Empire. And finally you have Iran - Persian, not Arab, and Shia rather than Sunni.

It reminds me of the cliche of the "Mexican Standoff". Perhaps it should be renamed the "Middle Eastern Standoff"!!

Mike.

biochem wrote:

Daryl wrote:I've read this opinion before elsewhere and wonder at the logic. Firstly a bit sexist and ageist, why only males of a certain age?
Secondly, how are they going to fight for their country? Which of the many religious sects will they join? What if they are atheist, christian, or buddist?
If they don't fit into a mould they wouldn't last a day, and even if they did it would just make the multi sided conflict worse. A couple of young Australians (male & female) went stupidly over there a year ago, joined an islamic armed group and were dead in a week when their group were exterminated by a bigger faction over some ideology.

The USA has a military draft of able bodied males of military age. It is not currently active but even so all able bodied males of military age must register under penalty of law. And should the situation occur that the country needs to be defended the registration will be activated and those able bodied males of military age will have to fight whether they like it or not. Sooner or later (the way things are going, likely sooner). Young people (mostly male) from other countries most likely Russia, France, Jordan, the USA will be present boots on the ground fighting and dying in Syria. It is not unreasonable to expect the Syrians to do the same FOR THEIR OWN COUNTRY. That doesn't mean they just need to be dumped at the border to be slaughtered. One possibility could be the Kurds. They have a functional army. Transportation to the Kurds could be provided to as many Syrian able bodied men of military age as the Kurds are willing to accept.

What happens if the Kurds don't want any? The Kurds, uh, don't have the best relations with their neighbors. Easily understandable.



I wonder how many of you 'but COUNTRY' folks would expect such patriotism and nationalism if you hadn't been born US citizens, or into other 'free' western nations with a pretty good life being the norm. Would you be so patriotic if you grew up in the fiefdom of a despotic dictator?

Sully wrote:
[SNIP QUOTE]

What happens if the Kurds don't want any? The Kurds, uh, don't have the best relations with their neighbors. Easily understandable.



I wonder how many of you 'but COUNTRY' folks would expect such patriotism and nationalism if you hadn't been born US citizens, or into other 'free' western nations with a pretty good life being the norm. Would you be so patriotic if you grew up in the fiefdom of a despotic dictator?

Hmm things might have been peaceful if the 'Great Black Father' had not stirred the pot creating the the Arab spring.

You may have noticed that the radical Muslims don't like democracy any more than the dictators.

Poker