Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk

I think we may be overstating Thirsk's loyalty to his king & country. I remember him talking to himself saying that if it hadn't been for his family (being stuck in Dohlar) he would have accepted the offer of being 2nd in command for someone else (and I don't remember who made the offer). So, assuming he was being honest with himself, he really wouldn't be against working for someone else. Now if that someone else is Charis, that might be another question. And no doubt, he is extremely loyal to his men.

I'm thinking that maybe Thirsk bargains with Merlin: save my men from the Inquisition, and I will defect to Charis. He probably would understand that he couldn't save everybody, but to die and not save anyone isn't a great option either. In another thread I hypothesized that Thirsk could become another Nahrmann albeit a bit different. Perhaps helping with strategy and tactics etc.

From the interaction where he plays with the lighter, Thirsk IMO shows he is not particularly afraid that it is "Shan-Wei spawned", nor are all the weapons advancement etc. So to me that shows a more open mind than most. That's still no guarantee that he would respond well to the truth, but I don't think it would be a given that he would freak out either.

I think what happens with Thirsk will be a key component of the next book. And since we're all pretty sure that Charis wins, I think Thirsk will be a large part of helping Charis do that.

I have been rereading semi-carefully, and I think this may be the appropriate place to add material that might not have been considered. Here's the material:

1. Earl Hanth has been reinforced and is now approaching the Duchy of Thorast. Since Dohlar had pretty much emptied its manpower pool in order to reinforce Rychtyr, Hanth's continued success pre-reinforcement suggests that Dohlar is pretty close to losing its entire Army for at least the next year.

2. While Rychtyr destroyed the canals leading to Alyksberg, as of October canal specialists are working to finish restoring locks "before winter sets in", and the only places that would appear to matter are the Seridahn and the Alyksberg canals, the one leading to Thorast and the other to Dairwyth north of Dohlar. It would seem likely, therefore, that now or a little later Dohlar will be entirely cut off from the north and west (Harchong and the Temple Lands). Since the east is also cut off, the only way to communicate and send technology and supplies to aid the Temple is a long circuitous route through South and North Harchong; and ICN control of the western Gulf makes that very iffy.

3. The Rottweilers will be arriving shortly, if they haven't arrived already, and so even if Dohlar gets its ironclad working it can't prevent Rottweiler-led raids into the eastern Gulf, making the circle around Dohlar almost complete. This suggests that the importance of the Haaralds will turn out to be ensuring that the Church sees that technology gained from its ironclad is not enough to avoid complete ICN control of the seas.

4. Unintentionally, Clyntahn has just given Thirsk a huge prestige boost in the Church, by sending him condolences on the loss of his family. To whipsaw the Faithful by turning around now and condemning whatever he does as apostate will be very hard to swallow even by the Faithful.

5. Khapahr's "confession" very carefully took the Inquisition's attention away from two of Thirsk's aides. These are likely to support him in any move to surrender. Likewise, the Navy is likely to be split, at the very least, and very possibly supportive of Thirsk. The death toll among fanatical Dohlar Inquisitors assigned to the Navy and indications that some of them see the handwriting on the wall suggest that they cannot be depended on to keep the Navy fighting.

I would summarize by saying that imho Dohlar is now very close to being effectively neutralized and that Thirsk now has the power to spearhead a reasonable surrender or effective neutrality "with allowance for tender consciences." And there is surprisingly little Clyntahn can do about it.

Consider also the effects on the Church's monetary and supply sinews if Dohlar leaves. The Charisians can turn off the Mahrys gold spigot any time they want. Harchong revenues and supplies are what remains, at least in winter, and South Harchong's greater capacity will be close to being cut off, while North Harchong faces real problems shipping stuff to the Temple Lands now that the only way is north of Hayzor, which is almost certainly not great in winter. Duchairn was already worried about running out in 15 months, even with both Harchongs, Mahrys, and Dohlar -- now he's going to be faced with desperation much earlier -- say, around Spring.

Just some thoughts.

TBird50 wrote:I think we may be overstating Thirsk's loyalty to his king & country. I remember him talking to himself saying that if it hadn't been for his family (being stuck in Dohlar) he would have accepted the offer of being 2nd in command for someone else (and I don't remember who made the offer). So, assuming he was being honest with himself, he really wouldn't be against working for someone else. Now if that someone else is Charis, that might be another question. And no doubt, he is extremely loyal to his men.

I'm thinking that maybe Thirsk bargains with Merlin: save my men from the Inquisition, and I will defect to Charis. He probably would understand that he couldn't save everybody, but to die and not save anyone isn't a great option either. In another thread I hypothesized that Thirsk could become another Nahrmann albeit a bit different. Perhaps helping with strategy and tactics etc.

From the interaction where he plays with the lighter, Thirsk IMO shows he is not particularly afraid that it is "Shan-Wei spawned", nor are all the weapons advancement etc. So to me that shows a more open mind than most. That's still no guarantee that he would respond well to the truth, but I don't think it would be a given that he would freak out either.

I think what happens with Thirsk will be a key component of the next book. And since we're all pretty sure that Charis wins, I think Thirsk will be a large part of helping Charis do that.

Haven't had any time to contribute to the threads for a while - life getting in the way. I'm on the road as I write this (have been for 2 weeks), but HAD to expand on TBird50's thoughts.

How about this for a scenario: Merlin and Thirsk have a deep discussion about Thirsk, Thirsk's men, Thirsk's family, and the likely future for all of the above if Clyntahn gets his hands on them - "penalties of Schuler..." At the end of the discussion, Thirsk decides that his only real hope, his men's only real hope, his family's only real hope, and ... wait for it... Dohlar's only real hope... lies in Thirsk's very public defection. In the process of effecting that defection, Thirsk, Merlin, and Thirsk's loyal henchmen rescue all of Thirsk's injured men and those being held by the Inquisition. They kill any inquisitors in their path... Then pick up their families and abscond with the entire remaining Dohlaran fleet and make sail for Claw Island where they seek sanctuary from the Charisians.

What a thumb in Clyntahn's eye when that gets out!

WeberFan wrote:

TBird50 wrote:I think we may be overstating Thirsk's loyalty to his king & country. I remember him talking to himself saying that if it hadn't been for his family (being stuck in Dohlar) he would have accepted the offer of being 2nd in command for someone else (and I don't remember who made the offer). So, assuming he was being honest with himself, he really wouldn't be against working for someone else. Now if that someone else is Charis, that might be another question. And no doubt, he is extremely loyal to his men.

I'm thinking that maybe Thirsk bargains with Merlin: save my men from the Inquisition, and I will defect to Charis. He probably would understand that he couldn't save everybody, but to die and not save anyone isn't a great option either. In another thread I hypothesized that Thirsk could become another Nahrmann albeit a bit different. Perhaps helping with strategy and tactics etc.

From the interaction where he plays with the lighter, Thirsk IMO shows he is not particularly afraid that it is "Shan-Wei spawned", nor are all the weapons advancement etc. So to me that shows a more open mind than most. That's still no guarantee that he would respond well to the truth, but I don't think it would be a given that he would freak out either.

I think what happens with Thirsk will be a key component of the next book. And since we're all pretty sure that Charis wins, I think Thirsk will be a large part of helping Charis do that.

Haven't had any time to contribute to the threads for a while - life getting in the way. I'm on the road as I write this (have been for 2 weeks), but HAD to expand on TBird50's thoughts.

How about this for a scenario: Merlin and Thirsk have a deep discussion about Thirsk, Thirsk's men, Thirsk's family, and the likely future for all of the above if Clyntahn gets his hands on them - "penalties of Schuler..." At the end of the discussion, Thirsk decides that his only real hope, his men's only real hope, his family's only real hope, and ... wait for it... Dohlar's only real hope... lies in Thirsk's very public defection. In the process of effecting that defection, Thirsk, Merlin, and Thirsk's loyal henchmen rescue all of Thirsk's injured men and those being held by the Inquisition. They kill any inquisitors in their path... Then pick up their families and abscond with the entire remaining Dohlaran fleet and make sail for Claw Island where they seek sanctuary from the Charisians.

What a thumb in Clyntahn's eye when that gets out!

Sorry...but the imp in me can't resist....(thoroughly tongue in cheek) How do you seek refuge from the Charisians at Claw Island? More seriously, I know what you meant.

Don

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TBird50 wrote:I think we may be overstating Thirsk's loyalty to his king & country. I remember him talking to himself saying that if it hadn't been for his family (being stuck in Dohlar) he would have accepted the offer of being 2nd in command for someone else (and I don't remember who made the offer). So, assuming he was being honest with himself, he really wouldn't be against working for someone else. Now if that someone else is Charis, that might be another question. And no doubt, he is extremely loyal to his men.

I'm thinking that maybe Thirsk bargains with Merlin: save my men from the Inquisition, and I will defect to Charis. He probably would understand that he couldn't save everybody, but to die and not save anyone isn't a great option either. In another thread I hypothesized that Thirsk could become another Nahrmann albeit a bit different. Perhaps helping with strategy and tactics etc.

From the interaction where he plays with the lighter, Thirsk IMO shows he is not particularly afraid that it is "Shan-Wei spawned", nor are all the weapons advancement etc. So to me that shows a more open mind than most. That's still no guarantee that he would respond well to the truth, but I don't think it would be a given that he would freak out either.

I think what happens with Thirsk will be a key component of the next book. And since we're all pretty sure that Charis wins, I think Thirsk will be a large part of helping Charis do that.

I found the particulars of what I said above. In BSRA, Thirsk is talking with Hahlynd: "...Given the way Thorast and the King blame me for what happened off Armageddon Reef. I suppose I'm lucky they settled for just beaching me. ... Thorast was scarcely likely to admit Malikai's culpability, especially with someone else available to take the blame. Under the circumstances, Thirsk had actually seriously considered the invitation from Baron White Ford to stay on in Tarot as the second-in-command of the Tarotsion Navy. (P) If it hadn't been for his family, he probably would have, he admitted to himself now. His wife had been dead for years, but all three of his daughters had husbands and children of their own. Not only would he have missed them almost more than life itself, but he'd been far from certain the king wouldn't have punished them for their father's and grandfather's 'failure' if Thirsk himself had been beyond his reach. ..."

TBird50 wrote:I found the particulars of what I said above. In BSRA, Thirsk is talking with Hahlynd: "...Given the way Thorast and the King blame me for what happened off Armageddon Reef. I suppose I'm lucky they settled for just beaching me. ... Thorast was scarcely likely to admit Malikai's culpability, especially with someone else available to take the blame. Under the circumstances, Thirsk had actually seriously considered the invitation from Baron White Ford to stay on in Tarot as the second-in-command of the Tarotsion Navy. (P) If it hadn't been for his family, he probably would have, he admitted to himself now. His wife had been dead for years, but all three of his daughters had husbands and children of their own. Not only would he have missed them almost more than life itself, but he'd been far from certain the king wouldn't have punished them for their father's and grandfather's 'failure' if Thirsk himself had been beyond his reach. ..."

It's a point, and certainly Thirsk's loyalty to king and country are behind that to his family and (almost certainly) his officers and crews too.

But when White Ford made that offer, it was all a secular affair - the Knights of the Temple Lands organizing an attack by five states against a sixth, with most of those five having something thoroughly non-religious against Charis. And he'd've been defecting from one of those states to another of them (Tarot). Tarot wasn't likely to find itself at war with a nation on the far side of the planet.

Now, he'd be defecting from Dohlar in what the Church frames as - and forces to be - a life or death struggle, to the other side of that struggle, and able to offer nothing much but assistance in that case killing Dohlar and its navy. Or sitting on a sideline, which, while a whole lot easier, won't likely suit this man. (Unlike, say, the Desnairian leaders who defected.)

If he really doesn't think he has a good chance to do more for his men and, yes, his country generally, even the twit with the crown, by staying, then I'm sure he'd take up an offer to get out and retire quietly with his family. I just don't think that he's all that suited to that quiet retirement when so much is going on on Safehold, or that he's going to be that utterly pessimistic about what he may be able to do with Merlin's help to save Dohlar from being Clyntahn's next sacrifice.

>I think what happens with Thirsk will be a key component of the next book

+1 insightful.

He's strategic in terms of the immediate war and in terms of the long-term goal, as an example.

There are men like Thirsk in important positions all over Safehold. They are conservative in the Burkean sense. Battlefield victories will be only temporary until the loyalty of competent powerful people to the Church of Clyntahn is broken.

He is important as an indicator of enemy morale, just as was the priest who gave food and comfort to Stefyny.

When thinking about Dohlar, I keep coming back to a few facts.

Dohlar even previous to the jihad was "aping" Charis and it continues to a larger extent even while fighting Charis in the jihad.
Dohlar has been the most effective element of the jihad.
The CoGA has been impotent against any force fighting openly against the Church or Church surrogates (KotTL).
Their only success was a deceitful attack against an effective ally at the time of that attack, Siddermark.
Safehold's underlying belief that God and the Archangels actively assert their wills on Safehold.
Finally, divine intervention is believed to counter demonic intervention/intrusion.

I wonder how long it will take Dohlarans to express the conclusion that God favors Dohlar and Charis because of their innovations? If the reversals suffered by the Church are God's test, then why is His Church the epitome of impotence unless His Church employs tactics from the Dark? Why are their successes achieved against the innocent, unaware or the openly noncombatant? I suspect that soon enough more than just Dohlar will come to this conclusion.

The theological theme is simple enough....living in harmony with God's plan is not only a matter of what one does, but also WHY one does it. At times like this which truly try men's souls often why one acts is more important than the act itself.

PeterZ wrote:When thinking about Dohlar, I keep coming back to a few facts.

Dohlar even previous to the jihad was "aping" Charis and it continues to a larger extent even while fighting Charis in the jihad.
Dohlar has been the most effective element of the jihad.
The CoGA has been impotent against any force fighting openly against the Church or Church surrogates (KotTL).
Their only success was a deceitful attack against an effective ally at the time of that attack, Siddermark.
Safehold's underlying belief that God and the Archangels actively assert their wills on Safehold.
Finally, divine intervention is believed to counter demonic intervention/intrusion.

I wonder how long it will take Dohlarans to express the conclusion that God favors Dohlar and Charis because of their innovations? If the reversals suffered by the Church are God's test, then why is His Church the epitome of impotence unless His Church employs tactics from the Dark? Why are their successes achieved against the innocent, unaware or the openly noncombatant? I suspect that soon enough more than just Dohlar will come to this conclusion.

The theological theme is simple enough....living in harmony with God's plan is not only a matter of what one does, but also WHY one does it. At times like this which truly try men's souls often why one acts is more important than the act itself.

It does have the problem that (1) it runs counter to the Writ and the general conservatism of it, particularly to do with technology, and (2) it makes Shan-wei's lures of forbidden knowledge and rejecting Langhorne's teachings under the guise of benefiting oneself and one's people sound like God's plan, so the War Against the Fallen was, in effect, won by the bad guys. That's a painful lot to swallow, even in the face of reality strongly suggesting it may have a point.

But yeah, it would certainly have that much going for it, and reality can sometimes make a dent in religious belief - usually by ushering it out of the way.

There's another theological option to consider though - Clyntahn's suicide cult reading of the Writ. On it, angelic intervention comes eventually, but Safehold will be tempted sorely before that comes. It will be tempted by the alleged sins of the Vicarate into rebellion and apostacy; it will be tempted by Shan-wei's lures, appealing to fallen man's weakness and "better nature"; it will appeal to the sheer desire to live and knuckle under to heretics triumphant on the battlefield. It may well go all the way until Safehold consists of a world of heretics marching on a small, faithful to the last holdout in Zion led by Langhorne's sole true heir, Zhaspyr Clyntahn, expecting fully that nothing but a miracle can save them... when at last the Rakurai cleanse God's world of the unbeliever, Langhorne and the Archangels return in glory, and those few - living or martyred - who never, ever let go his charge are rewarded for their absolute faith in Him.

That one is a mighty stern and demanding theology. It's not going to reveal itself in the world til the very end, but it's a fair reading of the Writ and it's one to motivate fighting on no matter what.

JeffEngel wrote:

PeterZ wrote:When thinking about Dohlar, I keep coming back to a few facts.

Dohlar even previous to the jihad was "aping" Charis and it continues to a larger extent even while fighting Charis in the jihad.
Dohlar has been the most effective element of the jihad.
The CoGA has been impotent against any force fighting openly against the Church or Church surrogates (KotTL).
Their only success was a deceitful attack against an effective ally at the time of that attack, Siddermark.
Safehold's underlying belief that God and the Archangels actively assert their wills on Safehold.
Finally, divine intervention is believed to counter demonic intervention/intrusion.

I wonder how long it will take Dohlarans to express the conclusion that God favors Dohlar and Charis because of their innovations? If the reversals suffered by the Church are God's test, then why is His Church the epitome of impotence unless His Church employs tactics from the Dark? Why are their successes achieved against the innocent, unaware or the openly noncombatant? I suspect that soon enough more than just Dohlar will come to this conclusion.

The theological theme is simple enough....living in harmony with God's plan is not only a matter of what one does, but also WHY one does it. At times like this which truly try men's souls often why one acts is more important than the act itself.

It does have the problem that (1) it runs counter to the Writ and the general conservatism of it, particularly to do with technology, and (2) it makes Shan-wei's lures of forbidden knowledge and rejecting Langhorne's teachings under the guise of benefiting oneself and one's people sound like God's plan, so the War Against the Fallen was, in effect, won by the bad guys. That's a painful lot to swallow, even in the face of reality strongly suggesting it may have a point.

But yeah, it would certainly have that much going for it, and reality can sometimes make a dent in religious belief - usually by ushering it out of the way.

There's another theological option to consider though - Clyntahn's suicide cult reading of the Writ. On it, angelic intervention comes eventually, but Safehold will be tempted sorely before that comes. It will be tempted by the alleged sins of the Vicarate into rebellion and apostacy; it will be tempted by Shan-wei's lures, appealing to fallen man's weakness and "better nature"; it will appeal to the sheer desire to live and knuckle under to heretics triumphant on the battlefield. It may well go all the way until Safehold consists of a world of heretics marching on a small, faithful to the last holdout in Zion led by Langhorne's sole true heir, Zhaspyr Clyntahn, expecting fully that nothing but a miracle can save them... when at last the Rakurai cleanse God's world of the unbeliever, Langhorne and the Archangels return in glory, and those few - living or martyred - who never, ever let go his charge are rewarded for their absolute faith in Him.

That one is a mighty stern and demanding theology. It's not going to reveal itself in the world til the very end, but it's a fair reading of the Writ and it's one to motivate fighting on no matter what.

That is a common enough theme, even in real life. The difficulty with it is that even this fails. Eventually Brother Zhaspahr will be called to accounnt. One of history's persistant themes is what to do with gods that fail which is what the TLs are confronting. The question becomes "now what?"

Don

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