Why did Aivah warn Rayno?

PeterZ wrote:Related question:

Why is Aivah so vehemently more vocal against Rayno relative to Clyntahn? If she believes Rayno is the driver of Clyntahn's policies, killing him will tend to erode the effectiveness of those policies. If he is a moderating influence why the repeated vitriol?

Shakespeare had it right perhaps even on Safehold...does the lady protest too much?

Condemning Clyntahn is a bit like reminding people water is wet. He's a bad, bad, BAD man. There's no need to go on. Just report what he does and it's all on the table in grotesque detail.

Rayno, by contrast, is a shadowy operator behind the Grand Fornicator. Being in control of himself and generally rational leads people to like the slimy worm. Hammering away at how he's the technocrat of genocide and political terror is a necessary reminder.

Without Rayno - and assuming no one stepped up to be the replacement Rayno - Clyntahn would get more people killed faster for less strategic benefit. That's not a particularly clear win, but it's nothing to make Rayno look good, or to obviate the need to remember that Rayno is the one making terror and blackmail work more efficiently.

A Rayno replacement would probably be less effective in many ways, else very likely that replacement would already be doing that job. But they'd also be a fresh look at the Temple's counter-espionage routine. Helm Cleaver is well-situated in the current regime, and a less competent overall fresh look may make for fewer opportunities and more risks during a critical period.

Well, I can think of 2 possibilities... actually one of them is a certainty, but still: she knows him a lot better than we do. She figures he's earned it.

The possibility is that she regards Clyntahn as entirely Rayno's fault. We know that the election that put Clyntahn into office was rigged; what's not been made clear is how well-known that info is in-universe. What we also don't really know is: on whose initiative was the vote rigged? And on whose initiative did Clyntahn run? If it was _Rayno_ who set up the whole thing - and on reflection that wouldn't surprise me - he bears at least as much blame as Clyntahn for all that's happened. From motives that you can be sure are of the lowest, at that. If Nynian has even a well-found suspicion that's the case, she wouldn't be at all forgiving.

PeterZ wrote:Related question:

Why is Aivah so vehemently more vocal against Rayno relative to Clyntahn? If she believes Rayno is the driver of Clyntahn's policies, killing him will tend to erode the effectiveness of those policies. If he is a moderating influence why the repeated vitriol?

Shakespeare had it right perhaps even on Safehold...does the lady protest too much?

Jeff and Louis,

Either of you might well be correct. I just find the uniqueness of Nynian's opinion within the story to be interesting. Almost everyone blames Clyntahn and reserves their passions for him but Nynian does not. That includes those we have met within her organization and presumable also privy to the information about Rayno's exploits in election fraud.

There is a surprise here. Now that I think of it, those two might be related. Half siblings wouldn't surprise me at all. Which may or may not support my speculation that Rayno is working with Nynian in some way.

Louis R wrote:

Well, I can think of 2 possibilities... actually one of them is a certainty, but still: she knows him a lot better than we do. She figures he's earned it.

I wonder whether Clyntahn's ouster of Rayno would allow one of Aivah's spies to move up into the position.

~Tonto

PeterZ wrote:Jeff and Louis,

Either of you might well be correct. I just find the uniqueness of Nynian's opinion within the story to be interesting. Almost everyone blames Clyntahn and reserves their passions for him but Nynian does not. That includes those we have met within her organization and presumable also privy to the information about Rayno's exploits in election fraud.

There is a surprise here. Now that I think of it, those two might be related. Half siblings wouldn't surprise me at all. Which may or may not support my speculation that Rayno is working with Nynian in some way.

He's the one actually giving the orders that get her people, and people she'd be trying to protect, killed. He's the mind on the other side; Clyntahn's just the boss giving him general direction, power, and cover.

That she just plain hates him for his role in the Temple mafia would account for the special attention she gives him. It's straightforward and would militate, strongly, against him being one of her people on the inside.

Overthinking can cause trouble.

JeffEngel wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Jeff and Louis,

Either of you might well be correct. I just find the uniqueness of Nynian's opinion within the story to be interesting. Almost everyone blames Clyntahn and reserves their passions for him but Nynian does not. That includes those we have met within her organization and presumable also privy to the information about Rayno's exploits in election fraud.

There is a surprise here. Now that I think of it, those two might be related. Half siblings wouldn't surprise me at all. Which may or may not support my speculation that Rayno is working with Nynian in some way.

He's the one actually giving the orders that get her people, and people she'd be trying to protect, killed. He's the mind on the other side; Clyntahn's just the boss giving him general direction, power, and cover.

That she just plain hates him for his role in the Temple mafia would account for the special attention she gives him. It's straightforward and would militate, strongly, against him being one of her people on the inside.

Overthinking can cause trouble.

Of course it might. On the other hand if something smells fishy, I like to find the fish. I see Nynian displaying feelings that others close to her haven't displayed. Just as I believed she was more than had been portrayed the morning after she met Ahbraim and Seafarmer(sp?)was more than he seemed to be after he arrived with Earl Coris during his interview with Rayno.

Not saying exactly what's off here, but something is off.

Actually we have text that hints that Rayno was the one to rig the election. One of the primary reasons Clyntahn is certain of his loyalty, in addition to not having the connections to replace him. The hints are in book 3 or 4 and are made by Clyntahn's opponent for the position, soon after he is killed along with the rest of the circle.

PeterZ wrote:

I for one believe that the letter was an acceptance of Rayno's offer to work with Helm Cleaver. I believe that Rayno has issues with how Clyntahn is going about the jihad and wishes to use Helm Cleaver....the Fist of God against Clyntahn somehow.

Very speculative, I know, but that's one possible reason.

I don't see it. Rayno is too visible to be left alive when the Alliance wins, and, as many others have said, may well be the reason that Clyntahn was "elected" to that position, anyway.

First, I don't see any way that any of Aivah's people could contact him directly without a real good risk of death - other than a one-way connection like the message left to him, which will be visible to others.

We also don't know what is in Aivah's files on Rayno. And if he's been one of her people for some time, then he would have had the ability to kill Clyntahn, by slow-acting poison if nothing else. I know that at this point, Clyntahn's control of the military is creating a lot more harm than good, but given the millions of people he's killed, Aivah would eliminate Clyntahn if at all possible.

One other reason for keeping Rayno around, BTW, is that he is opposed to a competent leader of the Mighty Host, who might actually train a large experienced combat force. If they don't get killed off fighting the Charisians/Siddermarkians, they would be a real risk to him and his holdings.

But I'm speculating, too...

-- Bob G

I figure it's all about mind games. You've gotta admit, she is definitely in his head after that little missive was delivered.

Maybe making the Church start reacting rather than acting inside not just the Temple Lands but Zion itself is part of it, too.

Rayno is a behind the scenes guy. A manipulator. He is sitting in the middle of the spider's web pulling the strings. He's the one that's day to day overseeing the counter terror, intel, counter intel, and covert operations for their side.

Getting shoved into the light isn't what he's used to and knowing that he's also a prime target in someone's shooting gallery- someone that has already proven that they are very good at what they do-can't help either his digestion or his sleep.

Things are unraveling in Zion almost as fast in Zion as on the battlefield.

I wonder if Rayno ever got around to informing Clyntahn about that letter... I don't remembering any textev suggesting that he did.

Don

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