Why did Aivah warn Rayno?

My buddy and I were discussing Hell's Foundations Quiver at lunch today, and the titular question arose. I seem to recall that Rayno didn't tell Clyntahn that he got the letter admitting to the gunpowder in the basement, so that letter can now be used to drive a wedge between Rayno and Clyntahn--Clyntahn thinking that he could have taken precautions against the bombing at Second Pasquale's had he only known. However, that can't be the reason Aivah let Rayno know since they couldn't have known that Rayno would conceal it from Clyntahn.

It seems to me that the fellow Murphai got out of Zion is the one who planted the explosives at Second Pasquale's, since there must have been several people who saw him leave it there. The people who got the word to him can be left in place since there had to be so many people who knew that a meeting was taking place, secretaries, executive officers, groomsmen, etc.

Planting the explosives at the first place lets us, the readers, know that Second Pasquale's could be blown up, but that's not a motive for Aivah. Warning Rayno made it more likely that the explosion at Second Pasquale's could have been averted, so why did Aivah do it?

~Tonto

I guess the reason is similar to Dialid Mab's interventions, even when he couldn't rescue the camp inmates at that time. It introduced fear and distrust among the Inquisition's supporters. As such it would give support to anti-Inquisition factions and sow doubt about the Inquisition's omnipotence.

I for one believe that the letter was an acceptance of Rayno's offer to work with Helm Cleaver. I believe that Rayno has issues with how Clyntahn is going about the jihad and wishes to use Helm Cleaver....the Fist of God against Clyntahn somehow.

Very speculative, I know, but that's one possible reason.

Tonto Silerheels wrote:My buddy and I were discussing Hell's Foundations Quiver at lunch today, and the titular question arose. I seem to recall that Rayno didn't tell Clyntahn that he got the letter admitting to the gunpowder in the basement, so that letter can now be used to drive a wedge between Rayno and Clyntahn--Clyntahn thinking that he could have taken precautions against the bombing at Second Pasquale's had he only known. However, that can't be the reason Aivah let Rayno know since they couldn't have known that Rayno would conceal it from Clyntahn.

It seems to me that the fellow Murphai got out of Zion is the one who planted the explosives at Second Pasquale's, since there must have been several people who saw him leave it there. The people who got the word to him can be left in place since there had to be so many people who knew that a meeting was taking place, secretaries, executive officers, groomsmen, etc.

Planting the explosives at the first place lets us, the readers, know that Second Pasquale's could be blown up, but that's not a motive for Aivah. Warning Rayno made it more likely that the explosion at Second Pasquale's could have been averted, so why did Aivah do it?

~Tonto

I worked under the assumption that they wanted Rayno to increase and/or change the security arrangements of himself and Clyntahn. Which would help their inquisitor spy be better placed for an attack such as Second Pasquale's, both to plot against and to vanish after the fact.

Letting Rayno find the explosives was a very simple and direct message.

"We can reach you."

The goal was to heighten tensions within the Inquisition and demonstrate that no matter how much overt force they control within Zion and its environs they can't stop the Fist of God. If Rayno (and by extension Clyntahn and his supporters in the Vicarate) over-react it will only weaken their position.

On top of that it is likely that this will begin to drive the more moderate Inquisitors to begin looking for solutions to the Clyntahn/Rayno problem. Think about how the rest of the world is going to react to the death/disappearance of Thirsk's family. People like Maik are going to start looking for ways to remove them if they are becoming a threat to the Church, which it has become apparent that they have.

Clyntahn's spleen has driven every capable leader the Church has to surrender to Charis and run rather than face Clyntah's wrath, regardless of circumstance, because he refuses to accept anything other than their death. Recall that in the Battle of Ithrya the Desnair Navy took 70%-ish casualties before surrendering and still Clyntahn kvetched that they hadn't fought hard enough? Trust me, there isn't a commander left in the Jihad who doesn't know this. They'll know that the only reason Thirsk's family "died" was because of that very characteristic. Clyntahn had ordered that they be brought to Zion. Well every Inquisitor in the Navy knows that Clyntahn was on a witchhunt for Thirsk's head. There's got to be more than a few Sailors in the Dohlaran Navy who are eyeballing their inquisitors for the exact kind of treatment as the captain of the prison ships gave his inquisitor in HFQ.

Minor Nit.

Only one of the Captains (of the Prison Ships) killed his inquisitor.

The other Captain was concerned about what would happen to his inquisitor if he surrendered his ship but his inquisitor told him to save his crew and not worry about his (inquisitor's) life.

BrightSoul wrote:Letting Rayno find the explosives was a very simple and direct message.

"We can reach you."

The goal was to heighten tensions within the Inquisition and demonstrate that no matter how much overt force they control within Zion and its environs they can't stop the Fist of God. If Rayno (and by extension Clyntahn and his supporters in the Vicarate) over-react it will only weaken their position.

On top of that it is likely that this will begin to drive the more moderate Inquisitors to begin looking for solutions to the Clyntahn/Rayno problem. Think about how the rest of the world is going to react to the death/disappearance of Thirsk's family. People like Maik are going to start looking for ways to remove them if they are becoming a threat to the Church, which it has become apparent that they have.

Clyntahn's spleen has driven every capable leader the Church has to surrender to Charis and run rather than face Clyntah's wrath, regardless of circumstance, because he refuses to accept anything other than their death. Recall that in the Battle of Ithrya the Desnair Navy took 70%-ish casualties before surrendering and still Clyntahn kvetched that they hadn't fought hard enough? Trust me, there isn't a commander left in the Jihad who doesn't know this. They'll know that the only reason Thirsk's family "died" was because of that very characteristic. Clyntahn had ordered that they be brought to Zion. Well every Inquisitor in the Navy knows that Clyntahn was on a witchhunt for Thirsk's head. There's got to be more than a few Sailors in the Dohlaran Navy who are eyeballing their inquisitors for the exact kind of treatment as the captain of the prison ships gave his inquisitor in HFQ.

CJK wrote:

I worked under the assumption that they wanted Rayno to increase and/or change the security arrangements of himself and Clyntahn.

I don't entirely buy that. One of the repeated calls in these novels is that you can't protect against something you don't know about. Aivah has let Rayno know about an assassination method available to them that he wasn't protecting against. Any changes to their security methods can only make it tougher for it to work.

My buddy and I were having lunch together again today, and an alternative occurred to me during it. Recall that Aivah would like to kill Rayno, but can't because Clyntahn will devastate all of his enemies in Zion in retaliation, and that's something that will harm Aivah's ability to operate there. Recall also that the letter to Rayno claimed that they decided to leave him in place because he's incompetent. Now that many of Clyntahn's supporters have been killed in the Second Pasquale's explosion, all it would take to drive a wedge between Rayno and Clyntahn would be for that letter to come to light. If Clyntahn learns of it, then the suspicion would have to form that Rayno truly is incompetent. That opinion will be buttressed by Rayno's continuing inability to find the assassins of the vicars, and his inability to find the perpetrators of the explosion. I think we're going to see copies of that letter appear in the posters that keep springing up. Which reminds me--that's another thing Rayno isn't competent to stop.

~Tonto

Clyntahn might also conclude that Rayno is plotting against him.

Related question:

Why is Aivah so vehemently more vocal against Rayno relative to Clyntahn? If she believes Rayno is the driver of Clyntahn's policies, killing him will tend to erode the effectiveness of those policies. If he is a moderating influence why the repeated vitriol?

Shakespeare had it right perhaps even on Safehold...does the lady protest too much?

Expert snuggler wrote:Clyntahn might also conclude that Rayno is plotting against him.

Or that he's incompetent and plotting against him, or plotting against him because he can't effectively stop the Fist of Kau-yung so he's trying to work with them instead.

Really, there's a lot of trouble it can cause, in addition to encouraging a bunker mentality in both of them.