Direction of the story

n7axw wrote:

PeterZ wrote:
Enter the King Haarald VIIs. What greater evidence that those life changing behemoths do not offend God than their presence attacking the CoGA forces and no divine opposition manifests? That is life changing, Don.

These ships are evidence for a Church that relies on evidence that current doctrine is erroneous. Sure the moral argument will also be used and that will persuade a good number of Safeholdians. The challenge to established doctrine that these ships represent will persuade a great many more because of the Church's reliance on evidence.

You might be right on this one. But if they were looking for this kind of evidence to prove anything, there is already lots of it laying around. God should have intervened a long time ago and he hasn't. So now what? The Haarahlds might drive the point home for the waverers, but are there enough of them?

We shall see...

Don

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I agree with you that there have been a great many circumstances that have supported the moral conclusion Irys came to believe. There have been some that would support a shift in current doctrine (whatever that doctrine might be). The few KH VIIs Dohlar will see will likely be enough to make the point there.

The rest of Safehold's leadership will likely find the production capacity argument most telling. Charis didn't need to build the behemoths to be able to destroy port city after port city with impunity. The Cities could do just fine thank you very much. Yet, Charis built these monstrosities, all those rifled breach loading artillery pieces for the navy and army, all those infantry rifles, the ammunition, the mortars, their ammo, the River class boats, the City class ships, all the shells the artillery needs and oh by the way we still have some capacity to make those convenient little tools like the lighter and Lord knows what else the fertile Charisian mind can think of.

They build those unnecessary ships from their available capacity which was already enough to swamp the Loyalists forces. That they can so extravagantly engage in unnecessary excess without harming their ability to supply their armed forces with the materials to fight their war is proof that unless God intervenes, the Loyalists are toast. Since God shows no signs of intervening, the loyalist nations had better start considering their exit strategy from the jihad quickly. Because as soon as Siddermark's industry approximates Charis' output, the jihadi nations will be like tethered steer before a Great Dragon.

Clyntahn will explain the apparent delay in divine intervention by saying that God is testing the faithful and that God Awaiting will stop waiting and act as soon as the faithful demonstrate their faith by doing everything Clyntahn says.

The only question is whether anyone will believe him.

It would be interesting to make an argument in the next Dear Grand Fornicator letter that God is not on Clyntahn's side. Obviously he will reject it consciously, and God help anything breakable within reach. But if it plants a worm of doubt in his subconscious ...

I was thinking about the comments made about how weak the government of Dohlar is, the relative power of the individual lords in their lands, and it occurred to me that there is no reason to assume the Dolhar will survive as a state. Did I remember correctly that Hanth is directly threatening Thirsk's duchy?

Not sure I want to post more on this direction until after the next book has been sent to the printer….

Expert snuggler wrote:Clyntahn will explain the apparent delay in divine intervention by saying that God is testing the faithful and that God Awaiting will stop waiting and act as soon as the faithful demonstrate their faith by doing everything Clyntahn says.

The only question is whether anyone will believe him.

It would be interesting to make an argument in the next Dear Grand Fornicator letter that God is not on Clyntahn's side. Obviously he will reject it consciously, and God help anything breakable within reach. But if it plants a worm of doubt in his subconscious ...

I know that there isn't a snowball's chance in you know where of it actually happening, but wouldn't it be bizzare if Clyntahn started questioning whose side God is on? Can't send the inquisition after God...dang!

Don

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Hildum wrote:I was thinking about the comments made about how weak the government of Dohlar is, the relative power of the individual lords in their lands, and it occurred to me that there is no reason to assume the Dolhar will survive as a state. Did I remember correctly that Hanth is directly threatening Thirsk's duchy?

Not sure I want to post more on this direction until after the next book has been sent to the printer….

Thirsk is an earl, not a duke.

Dohlar is not necessarily weak. What they are is exposed and suffering from military defeat. Once the current crisis is past, after Siddarmark they are probably in the best position to regroup and eventually prosper.

I would at minimum expect a shakeup in the royal council and possibly the crown, though.

Don

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n7axw wrote:

Hildum wrote:I was thinking about the comments made about how weak the government of Dohlar is, the relative power of the individual lords in their lands, and it occurred to me that there is no reason to assume the Dolhar will survive as a state. Did I remember correctly that Hanth is directly threatening Thirsk's duchy?

Not sure I want to post more on this direction until after the next book has been sent to the printer….

Thirsk is an earl, not a duke.

Dohlar is not necessarily weak. What they are is exposed and suffering from military defeat. Once the current crisis is past, after Siddarmark they are probably in the best position to regroup and eventually prosper.

I would at minimum expect a shakeup in the royal council and possibly the crown, though.

Don

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I think he meant Thorast, not Thirsk.

Hildum wrote:I was thinking about the comments made about how weak the government of Dohlar is, the relative power of the individual lords in their lands, and it occurred to me that there is no reason to assume the Dolhar will survive as a state. Did I remember correctly that Hanth is directly threatening Thirsk's duchy?

Not sure I want to post more on this direction until after the next book has been sent to the printer….

Dohlar's weak government is a matter of a king who isn't all that capable and is definitely not engaged, and ministers whose authority derives solely from that king who differ with one another. It's not a matter of Dohlar being ready to fly apart, or even that the great nobles are barely subordinate to the monarchy like in (e.g.) traditional Chisholm. It's that the running of the country is currently distributed over a king who won't and ministers who can't really redirect it in any determined way.

The car isn't going to split up into a bunch of cars - it's just suffering from no hands really on the wheel.

JeffEngel wrote:

Hildum wrote:I was thinking about the comments made about how weak the government of Dohlar is, the relative power of the individual lords in their lands, and it occurred to me that there is no reason to assume the Dolhar will survive as a state. Did I remember correctly that Hanth is directly threatening Thirsk's duchy?

Not sure I want to post more on this direction until after the next book has been sent to the printer….

Dohlar's weak government is a matter of a king who isn't all that capable and is definitely not engaged, and ministers whose authority derives solely from that king who differ with one another. It's not a matter of Dohlar being ready to fly apart, or even that the great nobles are barely subordinate to the monarchy like in (e.g.) traditional Chisholm. It's that the running of the country is currently distributed over a king who won't and ministers who can't really redirect it in any determined way.

The car isn't going to split up into a bunch of cars - it's just suffering from no hands really on the wheel.

Right. A correctable problem, but it's going to take some time... The only real resolution that could happen quickly is for Rahnyld to re-engage and show some leadership, but that's not going to happen, barring an unexpected plot twist.

And those can happen. The transformation in Maigwair blows me away.

Don

n7axw wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:The car isn't going to split up into a bunch of cars - it's just suffering from no hands really on the wheel.

Right. A correctable problem, but it's going to take some time... The only real resolution that could happen quickly is for Rahnyld to re-engage and show some leadership, but that's not going to happen, barring an unexpected plot twist.

I think Gorjah had a bit of a step back from activity too, when he was caught between Church and Charis with no freedom to chart a middle course and a countdown til one or the other stepped in to deal with him more directly. It was far less lengthy and far less extreme than Rahnyld's distraction, granted, but Gorjah's leadership role was recoverable. I think he's probably a whole lot happier no longer being sovereign, but more than that, being sworn to someone who really, sincerely has his back is probably even more a source of comfort.

All of that could appeal strongly to Rahynld on a personal level. That's not a really good basis for a ruling monarch to make a decision, but it's hardly avoidable for a human being.

Sometimes - often! maybe usually - hereditary monarchies do not deliver capable, strong leaders. RFC's works don't spotlight those typical sorts much; Rahnlyd is Safehold's poster king that way. He would probably leap at the chance to have a constitutional monarchy in Dohlar that minimized his own role - 18th century Britain comes to mind, but that one came out of the experience of Parliament having had teeth for a long time to practice. And while a regency council makes an awkward, awkward device for transforming a nation's constitutional and diplomatic attitude, there's something to be said for it as an interim period during which constitutional expectations can change.

And those can happen. The transformation in Maigwair blows me away.

Don

Magwair rose to an occasion that finally called for his talents and showcased the niche he occupied. Rahnyld, well... I have to wonder how much better he could have been, when. Among the leaders of nations, no one has abandoned Mother Church while they had a choice. It's always been Mother Church casting them out, or leaving them helpless and alone at the mercy of those the Church cast out but didn't finish off. If Rahnyld hasn't seen Dohlar as cast out (and it hasn't been, yet), and it's not been left helpless before Allied mercy (and again, hasn't happened yet), then the options have been carry on or try to desert in place.

One thing about Rahnyld: he's ambitious on behalf of his country. He's vague about how to get there, he's valued symbol over substance, he's gotten them into fights he shouldn't have - but he's been a Dohlaran patriot. Dohlar has done too well fighting the jihad for him to want to simply fade out of it, and his ministers and senior military officers probably wouldn't have patience for that either. There's a feistiness in Dohlar that you don't see out of the Army or Navy of God, Desnair, Harchong, or maybe even Siddarmark.

But what Dohlar has now is a war they are likely to lose, that is likely to hurt a lot losing, that nonetheless isn't clearly over in a way that can justify suing for a separate peace, and worst, that is being fought against brave and noble enemies they can respect on behalf of a corrupt psychopath they cannot. Rahynld's not so disengaged he can't get the feeling all of that is right, but he's far, far from confident or competent enough to DO anything about it yet. And Dohlar's politics don't leave anyone else with the authority to do anything about it either.

I do think Rahnyld has a part to play getting Dohlar out of this mess. I don't think it's going to be any heroic, one man changing the direction of a nation business; I think it's going to be other people helping him to play whatever minimal role Dohlar needs him to play, with all the support and cover he needs.

I find your "ennobling" of the poor excuse for a king a bit curious. I'm assuming you found all this wonderfulness about Rahnyld in earlier books. I scrolled through the text of HFQ on a Kindle search of "Rahnyld". The best thing that came up about the guy was that he resented the demands of the Kingdom on the time he got to spend with his family.