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Why is Manticore's population so small?

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Re: Why is Manticore's population so small?
Post by Erls   » Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:36 am

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If your military is growing prolong is a wonderful thing. New commands, an increased need to career NCOs and Officers, and the ability for dedicated individuals to earn promotions and move up.

The SKM got prolong at the perfect time. Just as they were starting to drastically build up their fleet was the same time that prolong was universally available to the population.

Now, you have the ability to set 100 year plans for your officers. Have a promising JG Captain go dirt-side for 2 years as a training officer before getting his first cruiser, and then spend another 3-4 years as a staff officer for an Admiral before getting a BC. They could have officers take 5, 10, 15+ years out of active, space duty learning other aspects of the service and refining their skills without wasting a large percent of that officer's career. And, at the end of the day, an Admiral who has spent time as a training instructor, staff officer, weapons development liaison, and logistics command for 10-15 years will give them an incredibly broad view as a flag officer.

The SLN, on the other hand, got prolong when their fleet was well past any real expansion. Thus, you had connected officers continue to get promotions while serving the same function. Officers without connections, on the other hand, would top out as JG captains of destroyers or perma-XOs to better connected (and much younger) captains of cruisers. All prolong did for the SLN was worsen the nepotism - because effectively quadrupling ones effective time of service (say, 40ish years to 150+) without a corresponding increase in the fleet brought merit advance to a stop.

How this works with Manticore's population is unknown. For example, who is to say that around 1950 Elizabeth and Justin won't decide to have another child? After spending a couple decades raising children, and then 7 decades without them, maybe couples start deciding to have a second 'batch' of children. They certainly have the time (in life span) to effectively raise 2-3 'batches' of children with multiple decades off in between. The point is, we don't know - because the first generation to receive prolong is still around and the full effects have not worked themselves out yet.

Personally, I see a lot of people (with the economic means) being like Honor's parents. Say, you wait until your 50s to have your first 2 children. By your 80s, empty nest. I could see a strong pull around the 100s-110s to have another child or two for many who genuinely enjoyed raising kids. Unlike our world, where by the time the kids have grown and left and people start missing having kids to raise they are unable to have more, in HV they'll have another century plus to give it another go!

I think that birth rates (births per year) will actually decrease from what it was pre-prolong, but birth rates (births per parent) will increase as many families have a second (or even third) batch of kids. Over time, that will lead to a much larger population just due to longevity. And, a much more intelligent and useful population.
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Re: Why is Manticore's population so small?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:23 pm

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kzt wrote:You have to understand the history of the US military to understand how much of a disaster that would likely be. Up or out exists for very good reasons. Though it is hardly a perfect tool, it is better than what preceded it.
Theemile wrote:
How so? I can understand the need to move the problem children along, but with the Military's emphasis on well-educated NCOs and Warrants, I would think retention would be appreciated, especially in the segments which require specialized training?

Not arguing, mind you, just interested in the history behind your comment.
kzt wrote:You ended up with people never able to advance because they were jammed behind superannuated people who occupied the slots they could be promoted into. You have the guy who has been a mediocre (at best) major for 25 years, and multiple hard charging well qualified captains have quit in disgust over the years because they will never go anywhere as long as he is there.
Yeah, longer terms only seem work if there's either:
1) an expanding navy; so it's constantly needing additional officers of each rank; allowing the capable people to fill those new roles and then continue to advance.
B) Some other mechanism to sideline or weed out the mediocre superannuated people to free up room for the others to advance.
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Re: Why is Manticore's population so small?
Post by pnakasone   » Fri Nov 13, 2015 4:06 pm

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Well nothing like a war to cull out your officer core.

One major problem is that all too often the best war fighting officers are not the best at dealing with politics of a peace time military officer core.
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Re: Why is Manticore's population so small?
Post by kzt   » Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:09 pm

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pnakasone wrote:Well nothing like a war to cull out your officer core.

One major problem is that all too often the best war fighting officers are not the best at dealing with politics of a peace time military officer core.

There was some sort of absurd turnover of USN COs in 1942, particularly in the submarines but was significant in pretty much all areas.
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Re: Why is Manticore's population so small?
Post by saber964   » Fri Nov 13, 2015 6:26 pm

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kzt wrote:
pnakasone wrote:Well nothing like a war to cull out your officer core.

One major problem is that all too often the best war fighting officers are not the best at dealing with politics of a peace time military officer core.

There was some sort of absurd turnover of USN COs in 1942, particularly in the submarines but was significant in pretty much all areas.



Actually it was mostly the stress that was affecting CO's. IIRC the average age of a submarine commander was 38 in 1941 by mid 44 it was down to 27 years old. It was the same way in destroyers. Plus a lot of those officer were promoted to out of the way spots. Like what happened to ADM Fletcher he was promoted to CinC North Pacific in late 42 after some missteps during the Guadalcanal operation.
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Re: Why is Manticore's population so small?
Post by SharkHunter   » Mon Nov 16, 2015 6:38 am

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Disagree or no, some scientific folks think that the current "carrying population" of the world is unsustainable, that an "ideal target" is a couple of billion LESS than we have now. I would imagine that in a galactic future that ideal would have long been reached and is why the Harrington's emigrated to begin with.

Probably the best clues in "present day" is that on Beowulf, Allison was born five years later than her twin, because of a family limitation on the number of children. With Beowulf being preeminent in the biological sciences, it's likely that planet size, etc. and "what works and what doesn't" in terms of population control have been defined and set into law. Hence the need for Beowulf to have "daughter colonies" to allow for contiued population expansion vs a demographic winter.
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All my posts are YMMV, IMHO, and welcoming polite discussion, extension, and rebuttal. This is the HonorVerse, after all
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