Direction of the story

n7axw wrote:
So...what do you do? Avoid Zion? Say that you can only get so close and no closer, leaving the Temple and its denisons untouched? Imagine Zhasphar Clyntahn still in control as the wheels come off. The allies approach and then stop. Your perspective rules out the Haarahlds escorting in the transports to land troops in Temple Bay. Now what? If there can be no threat to Zion, Father Paityr certainly isn't going to make it into the Temple basement. No way to establish what will or will not trigger the Tenple's safeguards.

(Shrug) I don't know which way the story is going to go any more than you do. But I don't believe its going to go this way.

Don

n7axw wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:I'm fairly optimistic myself about Dohlar's likelihood of leaving the jihad, for these and other reasons. I just wanted to make the point that Earl Thirsk himself was just one small part of that, and to avoid too much optimism. The defections so far have been:
Charis: Defect or die, you've been essentially cast out already.
Chisholm: Defect or probably die - you're too likely to get blamed for insufficient participation against your own interests already, or to face the same treatment but alone down the road if you don't.
Emerald, Tarot: Defect or get invaded and forced to defect, and, well, you know you're suspect anyway
Zebediah: pretty much the Emerald/Tarot story, plus opportunism to play both sides in the late Grand Duke's case; nowadays, among the Zebediahan people, it's get behind the defection because they like it.
Corisande: defect willingly and be a participant or stay loyal (but suspect) and occupied
(loyal) Siddarmark: see Charis
Delferahk, Desnair: excusably fail to volunteer for more pointless slapping around without really stepping out of the Temple side

Dohlar isn't in a defect or die situation yet. They may well be able to avoid death for a long time just because there's only so much that can be brought to bear on them with Harchong on the same continent and their own population and manufacturing base. They're in a far better position to hold out than Corisande was. That may make for a brutal, slow destruction of their nation, but if they really think the Temple must win, that would still mean coming out on top. For that matter, giving the Allies a "Dohlaran ulcer" could contribute to their ultimate defeat, like Spanish resistance did for Napoleon.

They have too much going for them in terms of manufacturing and population base - and position - to be in Delferahk's or Desnair's position of being able to fall quietly out of the jihad.

So Dohlar would have to opt out of the jihad, if they do, with far more freedom not to than Siddarmark or any of the Out Islands did, and far more decisively than Desnair or Delferahk (or Fallos or the Raven Lands) have. It wouldn't be dropping out for being kicked out, or for facing that as a certain result of sheer force anyway, but because (at least in very large part) because it's just the right thing to do. (Though, granted, not being kicked around any more by the Allies would be nice, as would not having their sailors and soldiers under the de facto command of Desnairians and fanatics. It's not like moral indignation has to be the sole reason!)

Don't quite agree here. Dohlar is more heavily threatened than you seem to be indicating, whether the threat comes from a reinforced Hanth or from the Cities showing up in Gorath Bay. Either of those possibilities confront Dohlar with being knocked out of the war. Dohlar's participation in the Jihad is measured in not more than a few months and there is textev to support Thirsk's knowing that.

So it happens...one way or another.

Don

PeterZ wrote:A Dohlaran ulcer is something to really consider both from the Dohlaran and Charisian/Allied point of view. The threat of that will encourage Charis to foster a negotiated peace with Dohlar. That same threat will encourage Dohlar to hold out for the best possible outcome, including eventual victory.

The longer Dohlar holds out and draws large amounts of troops from Allies, the more likely the GHoGaA will either survive or make headway. If Dohlar caves quickly, the GHoGaA will have less time to develop better weapons and deploy their massive strength before the allies recruit up.

The purely practical motivations suggest Dohlar holding out for as long as possible. Unless their decision is driven by impractical reasons, that is. Impractical reasons such as a theological argument supporting the moral position that the CoGA was wrong to launch the jihad and engage in the subsequent atrocities.

PeterZ wrote:All holding out entails is a continued active resistance even after a defeat. Having an organized force that would force Charis into ever harsher measures. That alone will demand a large garrison from the Allies. THAT prospect would give the Charisians leadership a real ulcer. Unlike the Corisande campaign Charis cannot focus on one enemy alone and the population is both much larger and much more densely packed.