Direction of the story

The biggest variable is just how fast the jihadis can innovate. If they develop and adopt enough innovations, they may just hold off the ICA. Now that doesn't just mean innovating on their own, but also how much they can steal from the Allies.

The KH VIIs are going to be a big inducement for Dohlar and South Harchong to quit the jihad either voluntarily or by force. Those ships won't have nearly the same capacity to harm the Temple Lands or North Harchong. Sure with enough troop transports, the KH VIIs can sail into Temple Bay and attack Zion directly. Will that be enough to awaken the sleepers? Merlin doesn't want to bring high tech close enough to the Temple because he doesn't want to risk anything like that. Might having an enemy army or navy approaching Zion trigger an AI to awaken or the sleepers themselves to perhaps operate the OBS? Yes, it might.

So the Allies will have to balance the risk and reward of pressing any attack to Zion against the potential of awakening the Sleepers before innovating becomes more ubiquitous. If the MHoGaA and the CoGA innovate enough, the price of pressing the attack would be high and the risk of awakening the Temple high tech would be unabated. It might be better in that case to accept a cold war and have that motivate the CoGA to innovate faster in order to offset current Charisian advantages. The goal would be to make innovation and technology ubiquitous by the time the Sleepers awaken and increase the price of unleashing the OBS beyond what even megalomaniacs will be willing to pay.

If the MHoGaA do not innovate sufficiently, the cost of not attempting a coup de main to gain access for Father Payter and the Key now may be much higher casualties later on. Depending on the calculation OWL computes, attacking might well be the best option. Shattering the MHoGaA in the border lands will cause the CoGA to unravel. Using the KH VIIs to shepherd troop transports for a direct attack on Zion might be the quickest way to gain that access.

So, the biggest key I am looking for in the next book is just effective the MHoGaA against the ICA? Their ability to use or adapt the weapons they currently have and innovate new ones to defend against the Allied offensive they KNOW is coming in the summer will be key.

Alistair wrote:One loose end is Durchain plotting, Durchain has control of all of the charity/hospitals in Zion through being Treasurer.

We have seen foreshadowed that he has:

"Organized" them very well and increased there number and influence over all the poor and working class. This has mostly gone under Rayno's radar.

What could he do with this power?

Simply this if he and the priests running the all of the shelters asked, most of the poor/working class would rise up and do there bidding. Particularly if they thought they would lose the money and social services if they didn't. Which they would do because Clinton hates the wasted money so if Durchain goes so does 90% of the charity money.

Maybe its not an army but as the Lord Protector found out a mob under the control of dedicated priests should not be under estimated.

I don't think he's done any of that with an intention of putting the poor, starving, destitute people his faith calls upon him to clothe, shelter and feed into the line of fire of the Inquisition and Temple Guard. That may all be an unintended, even unknown side-effect - that they'd rise up in his defense or in his memory if push comes to shove - but I doubt it's something he's planned or intends. And it does not match well with his thinking in HFQ that his plotting doesn't have anything fast or "hard" enough to reply to immediate violent moves on Clyntahn's part: the Temple mob would be such a force, if he had it mobilized somehow. In addition, I doubt it could be organized that way that secretly.

n7axw wrote:
Hi JeffEngel,

Nice response. The possibility I see with the Duchairn plot and Helm Cleaver connecting has to do with that envelop Hauwerd Wylsyn passed Duchairn right before the purge. What was in it? Info on the Madame, perhaps? Could it be that he is aware of Nynian and she could be an interface between him and Helm Cleaver? In that case you could see a convergence... Or, could all of this have something to do with that quick trip to Zion that Nynian approached Merlin about... a trip she expected because she needed to be on the scene at the decisive moment, a moment we are still awaiting at the end of HFQ, but which hasn't happened yet?

While I can't rule that out positively, two points militate against that. First, I doubt Wylsynn would have spread danger to people associated with the Circle but not already in Clyntahn's sights and grasp. Something to point to Nynian (Ahnzhelyk, in that guise) would have been exactly that. Second, Duchairn has been deathly afraid of being found with that on his person. Something that could be used to sic the Inquisition on third parties would be something he could offer them to improve his position that way. This leads me to think it was more likely some of the Circle's (or, by some remove, the SSK's) blackmail material on some of the vicarate, so Duchairn would have some idea who cannot be trusted. What the Circle may have known about Inquisition spies or double agents may have been it too.

As for Thirsk, I suspect his sailors are getting a bit tired of Clyntahn's antics. They felt dirtied by what happened to Manthyr and his people. Now Clyntahn proposes to do the same thing to their own officers who found themselves on the short end of a fight where they suffered a 70% loss... and to add insult to injury, Clyntahn wants their admiral, the one who has built their navy and made what victory they have experienced possible, to accept an invitation to the same party. Can we spell mutiny, anyone? Throw the inquisitors overboard!

Or teasing out another possibility, imagine the reaction of Ahlverez's survivors should Sir Raimos get an invitation to Zion. I wonder if they could become a praetorian guard. Soldiers on land usually are in a better position to make an impact than sailors are...although, remember those naval bases in Murmansk at the onset of the October revolution in Russia...

I'm a bit more optimistic than you are about Dohlar's readiness to bail on the Jihad than you are, I think. Dohlar has already paid a heavier cost for its participation in the Jihad for its size than anyone on the TL side other than perhaps the Temple Lands. Thanks to those broadsheets, they have been getting the other point of view. A word for Dohlar could well be discouraged and war weary. So, we'll see.

Don

I'm fairly optimistic myself about Dohlar's likelihood of leaving the jihad, for these and other reasons. I just wanted to make the point that Earl Thirsk himself was just one small part of that, and to avoid too much optimism. The defections so far have been:
Charis: Defect or die, you've been essentially cast out already.
Chisholm: Defect or probably die - you're too likely to get blamed for insufficient participation against your own interests already, or to face the same treatment but alone down the road if you don't.
Emerald, Tarot: Defect or get invaded and forced to defect, and, well, you know you're suspect anyway
Zebediah: pretty much the Emerald/Tarot story, plus opportunism to play both sides in the late Grand Duke's case; nowadays, among the Zebediahan people, it's get behind the defection because they like it.
Corisande: defect willingly and be a participant or stay loyal (but suspect) and occupied
(loyal) Siddarmark: see Charis
Delferahk, Desnair: excusably fail to volunteer for more pointless slapping around without really stepping out of the Temple side

Dohlar isn't in a defect or die situation yet. They may well be able to avoid death for a long time just because there's only so much that can be brought to bear on them with Harchong on the same continent and their own population and manufacturing base. They're in a far better position to hold out than Corisande was. That may make for a brutal, slow destruction of their nation, but if they really think the Temple must win, that would still mean coming out on top. For that matter, giving the Allies a "Dohlaran ulcer" could contribute to their ultimate defeat, like Spanish resistance did for Napoleon.

They have too much going for them in terms of manufacturing and population base - and position - to be in Delferahk's or Desnair's position of being able to fall quietly out of the jihad.

So Dohlar would have to opt out of the jihad, if they do, with far more freedom not to than Siddarmark or any of the Out Islands did, and far more decisively than Desnair or Delferahk (or Fallos or the Raven Lands) have. It wouldn't be dropping out for being kicked out, or for facing that as a certain result of sheer force anyway, but because (at least in very large part) because it's just the right thing to do. (Though, granted, not being kicked around any more by the Allies would be nice, as would not having their sailors and soldiers under the de facto command of Desnairians and fanatics. It's not like moral indignation has to be the sole reason!)

JeffEngel wrote:

n7axw wrote:
Hi JeffEngel,

Nice response. The possibility I see with the Duchairn plot and Helm Cleaver connecting has to do with that envelop Hauwerd Wylsyn passed Duchairn right before the purge. What was in it? Info on the Madame, perhaps? Could it be that he is aware of Nynian and she could be an interface between him and Helm Cleaver? In that case you could see a convergence... Or, could all of this have something to do with that quick trip to Zion that Nynian approached Merlin about... a trip she expected because she needed to be on the scene at the decisive moment, a moment we are still awaiting at the end of HFQ, but which hasn't happened yet?

While I can't rule that out positively, two points militate against that. First, I doubt Wylsynn would have spread danger to people associated with the Circle but not already in Clyntahn's sights and grasp. Something to point to Nynian (Ahnzhelyk, in that guise) would have been exactly that. Second, Duchairn has been deathly afraid of being found with that on his person. Something that could be used to sic the Inquisition on third parties would be something he could offer them to improve his position that way. This leads me to think it was more likely some of the Circle's (or, by some remove, the SSK's) blackmail material on some of the vicarate, so Duchairn would have some idea who cannot be trusted. What the Circle may have known about Inquisition spies or double agents may have been it too.

As for Thirsk, I suspect his sailors are getting a bit tired of Clyntahn's antics. They felt dirtied by what happened to Manthyr and his people. Now Clyntahn proposes to do the same thing to their own officers who found themselves on the short end of a fight where they suffered a 70% loss... and to add insult to injury, Clyntahn wants their admiral, the one who has built their navy and made what victory they have experienced possible, to accept an invitation to the same party. Can we spell mutiny, anyone? Throw the inquisitors overboard!

Or teasing out another possibility, imagine the reaction of Ahlverez's survivors should Sir Raimos get an invitation to Zion. I wonder if they could become a praetorian guard. Soldiers on land usually are in a better position to make an impact than sailors are...although, remember those naval bases in Murmansk at the onset of the October revolution in Russia...

I'm a bit more optimistic than you are about Dohlar's readiness to bail on the Jihad than you are, I think. Dohlar has already paid a heavier cost for its participation in the Jihad for its size than anyone on the TL side other than perhaps the Temple Lands. Thanks to those broadsheets, they have been getting the other point of view. A word for Dohlar could well be discouraged and war weary. So, we'll see.

Don

I'm fairly optimistic myself about Dohlar's likelihood of leaving the jihad, for these and other reasons. I just wanted to make the point that Earl Thirsk himself was just one small part of that, and to avoid too much optimism. The defections so far have been:
Charis: Defect or die, you've been essentially cast out already.
Chisholm: Defect or probably die - you're too likely to get blamed for insufficient participation against your own interests already, or to face the same treatment but alone down the road if you don't.
Emerald, Tarot: Defect or get invaded and forced to defect, and, well, you know you're suspect anyway
Zebediah: pretty much the Emerald/Tarot story, plus opportunism to play both sides in the late Grand Duke's case; nowadays, among the Zebediahan people, it's get behind the defection because they like it.
Corisande: defect willingly and be a participant or stay loyal (but suspect) and occupied
(loyal) Siddarmark: see Charis
Delferahk, Desnair: excusably fail to volunteer for more pointless slapping around without really stepping out of the Temple side

Dohlar isn't in a defect or die situation yet. They may well be able to avoid death for a long time just because there's only so much that can be brought to bear on them with Harchong on the same continent and their own population and manufacturing base. They're in a far better position to hold out than Corisande was. That may make for a brutal, slow destruction of their nation, but if they really think the Temple must win, that would still mean coming out on top. For that matter, giving the Allies a "Dohlaran ulcer" could contribute to their ultimate defeat, like Spanish resistance did for Napoleon.

They have too much going for them in terms of manufacturing and population base - and position - to be in Delferahk's or Desnair's position of being able to fall quietly out of the jihad.

So Dohlar would have to opt out of the jihad, if they do, with far more freedom not to than Siddarmark or any of the Out Islands did, and far more decisively than Desnair or Delferahk (or Fallos or the Raven Lands) have. It wouldn't be dropping out for being kicked out, or for facing that as a certain result of sheer force anyway, but because (at least in very large part) because it's just the right thing to do. (Though, granted, not being kicked around any more by the Allies would be nice, as would not having their sailors and soldiers under the de facto command of Desnairians and fanatics. It's not like moral indignation has to be the sole reason!)

Don't quite agree here. Dohlar is more heavily threatened than you seem to be indicating, whether the threat comes from a reinforced Hanth or from the Cities showing up in Gorath Bay. Either of those possibilities confront Dohlar with being knocked out of the war. Dohlar's participation in the Jihad is measured in not more than a few months and there is textev to support Thirsk's knowing that.

So it happens...one way or another.

Don

PeterZ wrote:The biggest variable is just how fast the jihadis can innovate. If they develop and adopt enough innovations, they may just hold off the ICA. Now that doesn't just mean innovating on their own, but also how much they can steal from the Allies.

The KH VIIs are going to be a big inducement for Dohlar and South Harchong to quit the jihad either voluntarily or by force. Those ships won't have nearly the same capacity to harm the Temple Lands or North Harchong. Sure with enough troop transports, the KH VIIs can sail into Temple Bay and attack Zion directly. Will that be enough to awaken the sleepers? Merlin doesn't want to bring high tech close enough to the Temple because he doesn't want to risk anything like that. Might having an enemy army or navy approaching Zion trigger an AI to awaken or the sleepers themselves to perhaps operate the OBS? Yes, it might.

So the Allies will have to balance the risk and reward of pressing any attack to Zion against the potential of awakening the Sleepers before innovating becomes more ubiquitous. If the MHoGaA and the CoGA innovate enough, the price of pressing the attack would be high and the risk of awakening the Temple high tech would be unabated. It might be better in that case to accept a cold war and have that motivate the CoGA to innovate faster in order to offset current Charisian advantages. The goal would be to make innovation and technology ubiquitous by the time the Sleepers awaken and increase the price of unleashing the OBS beyond what even megalomaniacs will be willing to pay.

If the MHoGaA do not innovate sufficiently, the cost of not attempting a coup de main to gain access for Father Payter and the Key now may be much higher casualties later on. Depending on the calculation OWL computes, attacking might well be the best option. Shattering the MHoGaA in the border lands will cause the CoGA to unravel. Using the KH VIIs to shepherd troop transports for a direct attack on Zion might be the quickest way to gain that access.

So, the biggest key I am looking for in the next book is just effective the MHoGaA against the ICA? Their ability to use or adapt the weapons they currently have and innovate new ones to defend against the Allied offensive they KNOW is coming in the summer will be key.

Is there any indicator to suggest that anything more primitive than TF tech would awaken the sleepers? If there is, I don't remember it.

Don

n7axw wrote:

Randomiser wrote:
Yes, but surely the 'mutineers' weren't the only Dohlahrans who thought that way? It's at least a straw in the wind.

I thought that the incident being referred to was that Desnarian galleon delivering paymemt for timber to Fallos where the captain had the guardsmen shot who had been guarding the gold to avoid a fight with the privateer that had overtaken them. But maybe that doesn't qualify as mutiny??

Don

That was most certainly a mutiny from Clyntahn's perspective!

As I recall no one knows what will trigger the Temple to activate. The concern the Key generated was what other safeguards does the Temple have in place? Text stipulates a large power source in the Temple in excess of what is required to run the known amenities. Assuming that algorithms are running and waiting to activate Terran tech systems in case of a threat to the CoGA is simply prudent. Investigating the issue more directly is more prudent still. Finding a way to have Payter Wylsyn enter and snoop come to mind.

PeterZ wrote:As I recall no one knows what will trigger the Temple to activate. The concern the Key generated was what other safeguards does the Temple have in place? Text stipulates a large power source in the Temple in excess of what is required to run the known amenities. Assuming that algorithms are running and waiting to activate Terran tech systems in case of a threat to the CoGA is simply prudent. Investigating the issue more directly is more prudent still. Finding a way to have Payter Wylsyn enter and snoop come to mind.

This is how I remember it as well. Given Father Paityr's lack of computer background, he can't really snoop. All he can really do is plug in the key at which point all those exe files go off and whatever they're supposed to do. That strikes me as a less than optimal outcome.

I suspect that the Temple is set up to respond to TF level tech which would mean that it wouldn't respond to armies that reflected tech that was pre-electric. When I think about it, from the viewpoint of what's in the basement, I doubt that it could differentiate between the Guard and the ICA. The difference in tech wouldn't be that great. I also doubt that as long as that tech threshold isn't crossed, the basement would care about who is upstairs or if there is a change of tenants.

Don

n7axw wrote:

PeterZ wrote:As I recall no one knows what will trigger the Temple to activate. The concern the Key generated was what other safeguards does the Temple have in place? Text stipulates a large power source in the Temple in excess of what is required to run the known amenities. Assuming that algorithms are running and waiting to activate Terran tech systems in case of a threat to the CoGA is simply prudent. Investigating the issue more directly is more prudent still. Finding a way to have Payter Wylsyn enter and snoop come to mind.

This is how I remember it as well. Given Father Paityr's lack of computer background, he can't really snoop. All he can really do is plug in the key at which point all those exe files go off and whatever they're supposed to do. That strikes me as a less than optimal outcome.

I suspect that the Temple is set up to respond to TF level tech which would mean that it wouldn't respond to armies that reflected tech that was pre-electric. When I think about it, from the viewpoint of what's in the basement, I doubt that it could differentiate between the Guard and the ICA. The difference in tech wouldn't be that great. I also doubt that as long as that tech threshold isn't crossed, the basement would care about who is upstairs or if there is a change of tenants.

Don

That doubt is a very thin reed to hold on to when total destruction is on the line. If the good guys go in assuming Safehold tech will not trigger a response and something happens the results will be catastrophic.

The Temple was built during the War Against the Fallen as proof that God was more powerful than Shan-wei's servants. It wasn't built as of the Alexandria strike. That we know for sure. It couldn't have been built too soon after the strike since the Commodore's resistance didn't start until some time after the Alexandria strike. It appears than that the Temple was built towards the end of the War Against the Fallen and was completed by the end of the War as Cody died while visiting the Temple.

I doubt that Chihiro and Sheuler would have used the resources it would have taken to build the Temple until the War was well and truly won. That means that the temple would have been more at risk to low tech armies than to high tech demon infiltration. The Temple would have had records of all the resistance members or at least total numbers. They would have known who was left unaccounted for at the end of the hostilities. Until they were certain the risk of high tech will have been defeated, they wouldn't have devoted the resources to build the Temple. Once built, the Temple presided over a low tech society. Any threat to its inhabitants would have been of the low tech variety. Whatever high tech safeguards that were left in place would have been certain to address the most likely risks as well as the sudden resurgence of high tech.

All in all assuming that a very large and effective low tech army that threatens Zion would be ignored by the safeguards seems like one of those assumptions that will bite one's dupah. That suggests that our prudent heroes will want to be certain of what will trigger the Temple's Safeguards.

PeterZ wrote:
That doubt is a very thin reed to hold on to when total destruction is on the line. If the good guys go in assuming Safehold tech will not trigger a response and something happens the results will be catastrophic.

The Temple was built during the War Against the Fallen as proof that God was more powerful than Shan-wei's servants. It wasn't built as of the Alexandria strike. That we know for sure. It couldn't have been built too soon after the strike since the Commodore's resistance didn't start until some time after the Alexandria strike. It appears than that the Temple was built towards the end of the War Against the Fallen and was completed by the end of the War as Cody died while visiting the Temple.

I doubt that Chihiro and Sheuler would have used the resources it would have taken to build the Temple until the War was well and truly won. That means that the temple would have been more at risk to low tech armies than to high tech demon infiltration. The Temple would have had records of all the resistance members or at least total numbers. They would have known who was left unaccounted for at the end of the hostilities. Until they were certain the risk of high tech will have been defeated, they wouldn't have devoted the resources to build the Temple. Once built, the Temple presided over a low tech society. Any threat to its inhabitants would have been of the low tech variety. Whatever high tech safeguards that were left in place would have been certain to address the most likely risks as well as the sudden resurgence of high tech.

All in all assuming that a very large and effective low tech army that threatens Zion would be ignored by the safeguards seems like one of those assumptions that will bite one's dupah. That suggests that our prudent heroes will want to be certain of what will trigger the Temple's Safeguards.

So...what do you do? Avoid Zion? Say that you can only get so close and no closer, leaving the Temple and its denisons untouched? Imagine Zhasphar Clyntahn still in control as the wheels come off. The allies approach and then stop. Your perspective rules out the Haarahlds escorting in the transports to land troops in Temple Bay. Now what? If there can be no threat to Zion, Father Paityr certainly isn't going to make it into the Temple basement. No way to establish what will or will not trigger the Tenple's safeguards.

(Shrug) I don't know which way the story is going to go any more than you do. But I don't believe its going to go this way.

Don