Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk

StealthSeeker wrote:
And I will repeat to you and Don what I posted a little bit earlier.

I think that Thirsk has enough moral and personal strength that he will get out of his drunken stupor by himself eventually. He, after all, is contemplating how soon he can get back on active duty, back to the "family" he does have left, his men in the navy.

After that main conversation had taken place I would broach the subject of his family being alive by saying that there was something I needed to tell him that I wish could have been the very first thing I had said to him. However, to keep a promise that had been made I was unable to divulge that information until after we had our conversation. And then I would tell him that the promise I was keeping was one made to his alive and well family, to not use them as leverage to manipulate him into being a stooge for Charis.

In that context I don't think that Thirsk would hold my actions against me. He may even respect me more because I kept my promise to his family.

I don't think I am ever going to agree with you on this. And I cannot think of any reasons which would persuade me to do so.

Peter2 wrote:
I don't think I am ever going to agree with you on this. And I cannot think of any reasons which would persuade me to do so.

I can live with that.

Thanks for the discussion and for your perspective.

PeterZ wrote:@CJK

I disagree. The Cities can demolish the Dohlaran coastal cities, but that might not be sufficient to persuade Dohlarans of Charisian invincibility. After all God had stepped in that guided the RDN to victory each time the ICN threatened Dohlar in its home waters. God has let the AoG be destroyed, all the nations that attacked Charis and launched the jihad have suffered devastating reversals except Dohlar. Yes the Army of Justice was destroyed but the Dohlaran elements survived where EVERY other invading jihadi army and navy has not only been defeated but destroyed.

What makes Dohlar so special in God's eyes? The arrival of the Haaralds will make the connection abundantly clear. God is not offended by these innovations from Charis because he would counter such blatant demonic influences if they were indeed demonic. Since He is not offended, it follows that Charis' advantage stems from a God approved set of innovations. Dohlar's blessings, then, might stem from their adoption of similar innovations.

The King Haaralds will persuade Dohlar to leave the jihad not because they show Charisian invincibility, but because they offer massive evidence that God does not disapprove of Charis. If that is true, than the jihad and the Inquisition are wrong. Loyal children of God cannot support what God himself does not.

First off there is no need to project invincibility, only that to fight Charis is to be defeated in detail. THAT the cities can do and have done versus Desnair with remarkable speed. Second there is nothing Charis could do to convince some people to surrender without a fight, the fanatical CoGA supporters or inquisitors will not give in without a fight. For that matter against a new weapon I would expect many to choose fighting over risking the ire of the inquisition. Also keep in mind that MWW has said that the KH's are not needed to win the war, the cities can do this just fine.

As for why Dohlar has survived, well we do know they have been a very secondary theater the entire time. Mainly due to the fact the REST of the opposition has been thoroughly destroyed by the main navy force, one that is much larger. NTM Dohlar had luck favor them combined with Thirsk ensuring his men were as well prepared as they could be to engage the Charisian navy.

As an aside why is it necessary for Charis to get Dohlar to surrender or leave the jihad? it is an option they could take. If they don't Charis destroys every bit of naval power they have. Merlin being in Gorath indicates Charis is considering other options but if they fail the Cities will ensure Dohlar's navy ceases to exist. IMO Dohlar will be out of the war before the KH battleships are finished. The KH's steaming into Zion will be more compelling statement if that is what the allies want.

I can't see any possible reason for Merlin to break with his moral stance and act deviously to Thirsk. He doesn't see Thirsk as an enemy in the way he does the G4. He considers him an honourable man.

I don't think Merlin's conscience would allow him to hide the safety of his family from Thirsk.

I'm sure that RFC knows the best way for Merlin to handle that conversation.

Hey people. I was off while awaiting HFQ. Just finished reading it and have a lot of catching up to do on this forum. I agree that Merlin most likely has a message from his daughters. Some private nickname, possibly, for verification. Scene I'd like to see: Certain Lord and servant, along with a certain inventor and certain crewmen from a prisoner convoy, commandeering a certain prized vessel, and hightailing it for Claw Island. But we will let DW continue at his own pace. I should retain my sanity for about another 238 days, 6 hours, 33 minutes, and 5 seconds Earth time.

CJK wrote:

PeterZ wrote:@CJK

I disagree. The Cities can demolish the Dohlaran coastal cities, but that might not be sufficient to persuade Dohlarans of Charisian invincibility. After all God had stepped in that guided the RDN to victory each time the ICN threatened Dohlar in its home waters. God has let the AoG be destroyed, all the nations that attacked Charis and launched the jihad have suffered devastating reversals except Dohlar. Yes the Army of Justice was destroyed but the Dohlaran elements survived where EVERY other invading jihadi army and navy has not only been defeated but destroyed.

What makes Dohlar so special in God's eyes? The arrival of the Haaralds will make the connection abundantly clear. God is not offended by these innovations from Charis because he would counter such blatant demonic influences if they were indeed demonic. Since He is not offended, it follows that Charis' advantage stems from a God approved set of innovations. Dohlar's blessings, then, might stem from their adoption of similar innovations.

The King Haaralds will persuade Dohlar to leave the jihad not because they show Charisian invincibility, but because they offer massive evidence that God does not disapprove of Charis. If that is true, than the jihad and the Inquisition are wrong. Loyal children of God cannot support what God himself does not.

First off there is no need to project invincibility, only that to fight Charis is to be defeated in detail. THAT the cities can do and have done versus Desnair with remarkable speed. Second there is nothing Charis could do to convince some people to surrender without a fight, the fanatical CoGA supporters or inquisitors will not give in without a fight. For that matter against a new weapon I would expect many to choose fighting over risking the ire of the inquisition. Also keep in mind that MWW has said that the KH's are not needed to win the war, the cities can do this just fine.

As for why Dohlar has survived, well we do know they have been a very secondary theater the entire time. Mainly due to the fact the REST of the opposition has been thoroughly destroyed by the main navy force, one that is much larger. NTM Dohlar had luck favor them combined with Thirsk ensuring his men were as well prepared as they could be to engage the Charisian navy.

As an aside why is it necessary for Charis to get Dohlar to surrender or leave the jihad? it is an option they could take. If they don't Charis destroys every bit of naval power they have. Merlin being in Gorath indicates Charis is considering other options but if they fail the Cities will ensure Dohlar's navy ceases to exist. IMO Dohlar will be out of the war before the KH battleships are finished. The KH's steaming into Zion will be more compelling statement if that is what the allies want.

I just went back and checked. At the end of HFQ, the Haarahlds are very close to being ready to commission.

The basis of this statement is that the fire in Delthak was in June of 897. They were within a few weeks of being done at that time and Howsmyn estimated that the fire would delay the commissioning of the Haarahlds from 3 to 5 months. Sinse in terms of the storyline, we are now in October of 897, we should be down to no more than a few weeks of their commissioning at the end of the book.

In fact if it is decided to send the Cities to the Gulf, by the time you get orders to the Cities and they can only travel as fast as a sail powered galleon with their coal aboard, it is conceivable that the Haarahlds could arrive in about the same time frame.

Don

@CJK

You miss the point. The King Haaralds allow Dohlar to recognize that the jihad was launched in error. That point will allow other nations to also opt out. Silkiah and Delferahk anyone?

To repeat myself. The KH VIIs are so innovative that if they violate the proscriptions, they do so with direct demonic influence. That means God would have to act to counter that influence. The only divine influence anyone knows about is the return of the seijin and they serve Charis. It follows that the Charisian innovations are not influenced by demons. It further follows that those innovations do not offend God. The Inquisition's claim that Charis was in rebellion against the CoGA when they denounced the CoGA attack in the name of the KotTL was sophistry. The Church attacked Charis and Charis defended itself. The Jihad was unjustified. So leaving the jihad is not a betrayal of God, but a recognition of the inquisition's error.

Don,

If the Haaralds and Cities make the passage to the Gulf of Dohlar together, I wonder how they will be deployed? I suspect the Cities will take out the ports in South Hatching, while the Haaralds take out the Dolahran ports. I suppose it doesn't matter. Well, the Haaralds will likely be using smokeless powder and true high explosives and so would be much more effective.

I wonder if more than one city needs to receive the KH treatment before that nation offers to leave the jihad?

@ PeterZ,

The jihad was in error? now that is blatantly incorrect, Clyntahn is carrying out the plan of Langhorne to the letter. Granted the people of Safehold do not know this but it remains that the reason Clyntahn wanted Charis dead (innovation) is entirely correct. Now in regards to the morality of the CoGA it was evident from the start they had none I will quote Prince Nahrmahn as he describes it beautifully:

"The one thing in the entire world the Church simply can't afford to lose is its moral authority as God's voice, His steward among His people, Trahvys." His voice was very, very soft. "That's been the true basis for the world's unity—and the Church's power—since the Day of Creation itself. But now the Group of Four has just thrown that away, as if it were so unimportant, so trivial, that it wasn't worth so much as a second thought. Only they were wrong. It wasn't unimportant; it was the only thing that could have saved them. Now it's gone, and that, Trahvys—that—is something they will never, ever be able to get back again."(Nahrmahn BSRA)

Convincing people that the CoGA is morally bankrupt is not an issue, the CoGA/Clyntahn does that far better than Charis. If you believe that the CoGA is God's will on Safehold after all the terrible things they have done then I doubt the KH's will convince them.


(Quoting myself here)
There is nothing Charis could do to convince some people to surrender without a fight, the fanatical CoGA supporters or inquisitors will not give in without a fight.

In Delferahk the major standing against Merlin summed it up perfectly. Better to die fighting the heretics than have the inquisition charge you with heresy and the punishment. Especially when it is applied to your entire family as well. The nations who have severed their relation with the CoGA were people who got the crap kicked out of them and had no way of beating Charis. They ditched the CoGA to get the best possible terms with Charis, working quite well for Emerald and Chisholm in fact. Siddarmark is the other example, where Greghor Stohnar had no choice but to ally with Charis, the CoGA had already declared him an enemy so survival dictated he join Charis.

Then there is Desnair, who ditched the CoGA after getting their entire coastline wrecked and the total loss of their army. They are not leaving the jihad because its morally wrong, they are leaving because Charis will destroy them in any fight. PeterZ your argument ignores the fact every realm on Safehold got its army/navy destroyed before ditching the CoGA.

As for the innovation of the Kh's, I would argue they are more of a super weapon the CoGA cannot defeat. But if Charis really wants to convince the fanatical believers they in god's favor, why not build a REAL super-weapon? I am sure Owl can fabricate a battle steel tank, or jet aircraft that laughs at anything the CoGA throws at it. IMO its almost certain Clyntahn would call them Shan-Wei inspired, which is in fact true if not the way he thinks.