Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk

Expert snuggler wrote:If I were Thirsk I would test Charis's intentions by demanding my family be allowed to move to some more or less safe place outside Charisian jurisdiction.

Where would you propose that be? Some mountain valley in the Raven Lands? Except for the EOC and Siddarmark, the reach of the inquisition is universal.

Best trust Cayleb to keep his word. Thirsk already believes Cayleb to be an honorable man.

Don

Demanding ANYTHING of Charis would almost be a tacit offer for a quid pro quot. You send my family to a safe neutral location and I will consider doing something. I doubt Thirsk would go that far on an initial meeting. He would only make such a demand when is ready to actually make some sort of deal with Charis.

Expert snuggler wrote:If I were Thirsk I would test Charis's intentions by demanding my family be allowed to move to some more or less safe place outside Charisian jurisdiction.

Expert snuggler wrote:If I were Thirsk I would test Charis's intentions by demanding my family be allowed to move to some more or less safe place outside Charisian jurisdiction.

After what nearly happened, and the roller-coaster ride that Thirsk's emotions must have been through over the past week or so, I doubt that he would give even half a thought to putting his family in any place other than the safest one he can think of. What he can think of is more debatable.

We know, and Merlin knows, that no place is safer than one securely within the EoC. However, we do not know what Thirsk knows. He will know that the EoC treats its prisoners well – Inquisitors excepted . He knows that the Punishments of Schueler are not carried out. He probably knows that naval officers who originally commanded in the fleets that initially opposed Charis are now serving loyally in the EoC's fleet. He may even know intellectually that the Church and Empire of Charis allows its citizens religious freedom, but he certainly won't appreciate it as a deeply held "gut" conviction like the citizens of Charis do. He may know that Daivyn (and Irys) are now ruling Corisande under the aegis of Caleb and Sharleyan. He is, however, most unlikely to know that they came to this decision of their own free will. He has no experience of what life in a truly free society is like.

Under those circumstances, there is a distinct possibility that he may not make the best possible choices for either his family or himself. The balls are still in the air, and have not yet come down.

Thirsk is the commander of the last remaining navy the CoGA has and has extra snippets from his inquisitor. Almost certain given how his family came to be on the ship in the first place he knows Charis is the safest place. Remember Thirsk fears the inquisition, not Charis heretics in regards to his family. Plus he knew enough to know that Irys and Daivyn escaped the inquisition, not kidnapped by Merlin.

Charis has been death to inquisitors, quite literally in fact and that makes it easily the safest place. Anywhere else is far more likely to have inquisitors and thus be vastly more dangerous place to be.

One thing too many posters forget is what happens after the jihad. Until quite recently Charis' ultimate survival has never been in doubt in the minds of the vast majority on Safehold. Charis and its heresy would eventually be destroyed. No matter how vicious the G4 and the Inquisition, they will survive the jihad while Charis is a smoldering ruin. Long term safety, then means someplace the Inquisition will ignore after the jihad.

That also suggests why the King Haaralds are so important. Those ships are the Charisian rendition of Gloria Gaynor's "I WILL Survive!". That assertion is not a desperate appeal to God for salvation. No! It is the dispassionate declaration of absolute fact; with these ships guarding the Empire Charis Will survive. Charis looks upon the vast forces of the CoGA and trembles....NOT!

Not only will Charis survive with the ability to produce whet the KH VIIs represents, they make a believable claim they can defeat the CoGA. Those ships enable the rank and file mainlanders to visualize a Charisian victory for the first time.

CJK wrote:Thirsk is the commander of the last remaining navy the CoGA has and has extra snippets from his inquisitor. Almost certain given how his family came to be on the ship in the first place he knows Charis is the safest place. Remember Thirsk fears the inquisition, not Charis heretics in regards to his family. Plus he knew enough to know that Irys and Daivyn escaped the inquisition, not kidnapped by Merlin.

Charis has been death to inquisitors, quite literally in fact and that makes it easily the safest place. Anywhere else is far more likely to have inquisitors and thus be vastly more dangerous place to be.

PeterZ wrote:One thing too many posters forget is what happens after the jihad. Until quite recently Charis' ultimate survival has never been in doubt in the minds of the vast majority on Safehold. Charis and its heresy would eventually be destroyed. No matter how vicious the G4 and the Inquisition, they will survive the jihad while Charis is a smoldering ruin. Long term safety, then means someplace the Inquisition will ignore after the jihad.

That also suggests why the King Haaralds are so important. Those ships are the Charisian rendition of Gloria Gaynor's "I WILL Survive!". That assertion is not a desperate appeal to God for salvation. No! It is the dispassionate declaration of absolute fact; with these ships guarding the Empire Charis Will survive. Charis looks upon the vast forces of the CoGA and trembles....NOT!

Not only will Charis survive with the ability to produce whet the KH VIIs represents, they make a believable claim they can defeat the CoGA. Those ships enable the rank and file mainlanders to visualize a Charisian victory for the first time.

CJK wrote:Thirsk is the commander of the last remaining navy the CoGA has and has extra snippets from his inquisitor. Almost certain given how his family came to be on the ship in the first place he knows Charis is the safest place. Remember Thirsk fears the inquisition, not Charis heretics in regards to his family. Plus he knew enough to know that Irys and Daivyn escaped the inquisition, not kidnapped by Merlin.

Charis has been death to inquisitors, quite literally in fact and that makes it easily the safest place. Anywhere else is far more likely to have inquisitors and thus be vastly more dangerous place to be.

I totally agree with you on that point, Peter. It's what Diandu can't seem to grasp when he starts in on the Harrolds as being totally unnecessary. They are being built to pointedly deliver a message to the rest of Safehold. And if they get to kick a little butt along the way, so much the better.

I would argue that HFQ has probably broke that belief, the CoGA lost most of the ground taken in the Sword of Schueler and lost every army sent into Siddarmark. Then there is the attacks in Zion discrediting the inquisition and Desnair being blasted right out of the war. This is what the majority of people on Safehold will have heard this campaign season. It is not out of the blue the emperor of Desnair is doing verbal gymnastics and denying the inquisition an interview with earl Hennet. Neither is Duke Fern's meeting about survival or Thirsk's internal monologue's of impending doom.

I consider that what's left of the CoGA secular allies are acting like rats fleeing a sinking ship, whether they acknowledge it openly like Thirsk or are more circumspect. What matters is that everyone's actions indicate that they are NOT certain the CoGA/inquisition will survive. I cannot think of a reason why Desnair would keep Hennet alive otherwise, or Fern sending that letter over Charis prisoner custody. Especially as they would know it would infuriate Clyntahn and he is neither restrained in his responses and never forgives an insult.

The more I think about it the more I believe that Merlin can not open the conversation with Thirsk by telling him that his family is safe. That's because as soon as Merlin tells him that he has his family, the family becomes an inherent took of manipulation in the conversation.

I think Merlin will have to first form a discussion based on the situation that Thirsk finds himself in. The fact that the CoGA doesn't trust him, or they wouldn't have taken his family. (for a vacation) Then continue with the fact that now that the CoGA has no lever on him his most likely going to be killed by the CoGA. He can detail for him the coming destruction of the RDN, throwing in some info about the "City" class iron side with a promise that better was coming. Try to put forth argument about how there might be possibilities to make Dholar's defeat/surrender less bloody.

Then once Thirsk has made up his mind as to what he wants to do, then he can be told that his family is safe and asked if he has any messages he would like to send to them or has any preference as to where he would like them to live. He could then let him look at any letters from them or what ever he may have to prove that they are alive. Maybe the knowledge that they are alive will make a difference in what he wants to do, maybe it wont.

I don't think Merlin will have to worry to much about Thirsk trying to tell others that Merlin was there as that would get people looking at him sideways as it were. Wondering how crazy his family situation had made him. Same goes for any naval information that may be reveled.

Agree with all you post. There is, however, a difference between being uncertain the G4 survives and being certain Charis not only survives but wins. When the King Haaralds steam into Gorath Bay, any fool will KNOW Charis will win not only against Dohlar but especially against the CoGA. Knowing Charis will win allows Dohlar to set aside the inquisition and sue for peace. Heck, they might even negotiate the survival of their Inquisitors.

CJK wrote:I would argue that HFQ has probably broke that belief, the CoGA lost most of the ground taken in the Sword of Schueler and the lost every army sent into Siddarmark. Then there is the attacks in Zion discrediting the inquisition and Desnair being blasted right out of the war. This is what the majority of people on Safehold will have heard this campaign season. It is not out of the blue the emperor of Desnair is doing verbal gymnastics and denying the inquisition an interview with earl Hennet. Neither is Duke Fern's meeting about survival or Thirsk's internal monologue's of impending doom.

I consider that what's left of the CoGA secular allies are acting like rats fleeing a sinking ship, whether they acknowledge it openly like Thirsk or are more circumspect. What matters is that everyone's actions indicate that they are NOT certain the CoGA/inquisition will survive. I cannot think of a reason why Desnair would keep Hennet alive otherwise, or Fern sending that letter over Charis prisoner custody. Especially as they would know it would infuriate Clyntahn and he is neither restrained in his responses and never forgives an insult.

@ PeterZ IMO the KH's are not needed to win the war, the Cities will do that just fine. In HFQ Thirsk already knows they are going to lose the naval war just from the Cities, plus the actions I mentioned before indicate he is not alone. The Cities battered down the capital city Desnair beyond the range of any response and any hope of sinking it dies with Thirsk's report on the ironclad galleon. Or for that matter the report on what happened at Claw Island.

As for convincing fools, well some examples of fools are Duke Harless. Nothing short of beating him into the ground would have convinced him as we found out in MTAT. Also consider that some people will fight regardless, like Clyntahn and every inquisitor for instance. Then there is earl Thirsk, he knows exactly whats going to happen, but he will fight when ordered to because its his duty and the threat of the inquisition to his family. Now that threat is gone is when he considers striking back against the inquisition. Similar thing wit the emperor of Desnair, Now he knows Charis can wreck his coastline and smash any army he has making Charis scarier than the inquisition. His response now is to avoid fighting, whereas before? quite willing to try fighting Charis over challenging the inquisition. Even if it was with just privateer ships.

Besides I expect the KH's to visit the Temple for the required pilgrimage rather than Dohlar.