Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk

JustCurious wrote:The first thing that Merlin will tell Thirsk is that his family is alive and not being used to influence him. He will probably bring supporting evidence, letters from his daughters and possessions perhaps. I think Thirsk will have little difficulty believing Merlin since he has reason to believe it is within his capabilities and in character.
Thirst will stay out of loyalty to his men, especially those threatened by Clyntain, and out of loyalty to King and Country.
Charis wishes Dohlar to leave the war and Thirsk could help bring this about. It is thus in Charis' interest to see Thirsk stay.
Also when the City class and later the King Haralds arrive Thirsk would have a good enough feeling for the odds to try to keep his forces out of action avoiding a bloodbath. He knows of the Cities and realizes that his forces would loose against them. He does not know of the King Haralds yet.
Merlin might let him know that Charis is building ships that Dohlar has no chance of resisting. He would not go into details but he might drive home the fact that Dohlarian navy will soon be far more outclassed than it ever has been.

After what the Cities did to Geyra, Thirsk is already very much aware of how badly outclassed the RDA is. He doesn't need the Haarahlds to understand that.

Don

"I have a seijin's power to see visions and I can share them with you. Would you like to see your enemy's next class of warship?"

Thirsk would seem to hit bottom.
He is also isolated and has been sure that the Gof4 is looking to eliminated him. Now that his family is gone, and the Church really has no leverage on him they could just have him die in an accident- probable a drunken fall down stairs or a suicide.
Merlin- who he recognizes from that earlier contact- has just shown up inside a place he really should not be able to get to let alone be inside.
Merlin probably produce something from the family to show him they are alive.

That the Church has them listed as dead- probably by Charis attack but doesn't have any bodies. They have yet to attempt to contact with Thirsk very quietly with Church condolences to say " we kidnapped you family in secret and now you have two choices, do what we tell you or we will have you brought to The Temple and you can watch their executsion.

Merlin could offer him a couple of options. One is just to provide evidence that the family is alive and tell him that, no matter what he does from now forward, he doen't have to worry about their safety. Of course, there can be more offered which might provide something active Thirsk can do about the Church situation. Merlin and the rest of the Circle already know what Thirsk has expressed very quietly to several close subordinates.

One thing could be just to have Thirsk just vanish. That alone would be a blow to the ability of the DRN to fight with intelegent leadership.

It is just possible that he could take part of the fleet to sea (including the crews that lost the prisoners) and surrender them to Charis....and be granted parole. That would let him get a lot of his people out of the Chruch's reach. That does have the disadvantage that the Church might then go after the famlies of the men with him but they are all being backed into a corner anyway and the Inquisition really doesn't need any pretext to make examples of anyone who isn't activly obeying orders.

Thyrann wrote:With his family safe Thrisk will probably start to work in accord with his hatred against Go4. My bet is on creating a way Dohlar can leave Jihad. Probably with lots of dead inquisitors on the way. Maybe Merlin will offer help with "seijin network" providing intel.

Problem is that Dohlars population is much more Temple Loyalist minded, so even declaring neutrality will be much harder. We will see in next book.

Dohlar's priesthood has had the standard mainland shuffling to and from other mainland realms. Insofar as they're an influence on attitudes, we can expect Dohlarans to have religious views typical of mainland realms... as of now.

But as of now, they've had years soaked in reports from OWL's broadsheets - and we can guess Dohlaran literacy and urban influence are among the highest on the mainland - and the scandals and bloodshed out of Zion.

Given the suspicion Dohlaran officers get for professionalism and manufacturing skill out of Clyntahn, there's at least a little reason to suppose that Dohlaran sentiment may well have been a lot like Siddarmark's before the Sword, absent the response from so much confirmed knowledge that the Temple didn't trust or like Siddarmark. And the Dohlaran aristocracy probably owed a lot to the Church and benefited from its blessings in ways that Siddarmark's ruling class did not, but that won't necessarily make for more popular Temple Loyalist sentiment. It was exactly the reverse in Zebediah, for instance.

Dohlar isn't Charis, Zebediah, or Siddarmark, of course, but many mainlanders of all walks of life for a variety of reasons do not care for Mother Church as represented by Zion anymore. Dohlar isn't likely an exception that way, and the way the Church has been jerking around their brave and effective sailors and soldiers is a particular grievance they can lay on that account.

There is also a downside for the CoGA with the proximity to Dohlar, specifically the speed at which information travels. Plus to the credit of Dohlar they do not seem to support serfdom or slavery according to the text. This means that events such as the fist of Kau-Yung's strikes in Zion and how princess Irys and prince Daivyn have been received in Corisande/Charis would be widespread. Also it is probable that they would have heard about the concentration camps too, with all the attendant horror stories.

Essentially the CoGA and especially the inquisition by this point should have precarious support from the populace. There is a long, long list of military disasters for one and I really doubt given the existing rivalry that Desnair's abandonment of the jihad with NO noticeable consequences went unnoticed. The average man in the street by now should be aware that the war is not going at all well, the inquisition has a habit of lying and neither of these things should be happening if the CoGA really were carrying out God's (Langhorne's) will.

I think that Merlin must tell Thirsk that his family are safe and well, because that will affect – and possibly drastically affect – Thirsk’s future behaviour and attitudes. He should try to convince Thirsk that Thirsk’s family’s safety is assured whatever his future decisions and consequent actions may be. I’m strongly of the opinion that Merlin should tell him that those decisions should be exclusively his own, that he (Merlin) is going to make no attempt to influence him, and that all that has happened is that Charis has removed the Church’s hold over him.

What happens then depends on which way Thirsk jumps. He may (and probably will) need time to come to a reasoned decision. I agree that as an honourable man, he is not going to want to leave his men exposed to the vindictiveness of the Inquisition and so he is likely to want to remain in a position of power and influence in Dohlar, if he can.

Possibly among the best interim outcomes for Charis are either that Thirsk is summoned to Zion and refuses to go, and is backed up by a majority of Dohlar’s power structure and fighting men, or that the Inquisition attempts to assassinate Thirsk, and fails in a manner that can be traced back them. Either one is going to cause Hell’s Foundations to do considerably more than just Quiver, in Dohlar at least.

Peter2 wrote:I think that Merlin must tell Thirsk that his family are safe and well, because that will affect – and possibly drastically affect – Thirsk’s future behaviour and attitudes. He should try to convince Thirsk that Thirsk’s family’s safety is assured whatever his future decisions and consequent actions may be. I’m strongly of the opinion that Merlin should tell him that those decisions should be exclusively his own, that he (Merlin) is going to make no attempt to influence him, and that all that has happened is that Charis has removed the Church’s hold over him.

What happens then depends on which way Thirsk jumps. He may (and probably will) need time to come to a reasoned decision. I agree that as an honourable man, he is not going to want to leave his men exposed to the vindictiveness of the Inquisition and so he is likely to want to remain in a position of power and influence in Dohlar, if he can.

Possibly among the best interim outcomes for Charis are either that Thirsk is summoned to Zion and refuses to go, and is backed up by a majority of Dohlar’s power structure and fighting men, or that the Inquisition attempts to assassinate Thirsk, and fails in a manner that can be traced back them. Either one is going to cause Hell’s Foundations to do considerably more than just Quiver, in Dohlar at least.

Agreed. One hint as to how it might work out is that Thirsk was wanting to get his family out of the line of fire prior to the current situation.

Don

TBH Merlin can quite literally say they will do nothing to influence Thirsk, as Clyntahn is already going to kill you and your men come summer. It is a win-win situation for Charis, Merlin's desire to see Thirsk's industry complex to survive is the primary logical reason why Merlin is there. Something that would be kind of hard to explain to Thirsk though, much like the industry buildup in Siddarmark.

CJK wrote:TBH Merlin can quite literally say they will do nothing to influence Thirsk, as Clyntahn is already going to kill you and your men come summer. It is a win-win situation for Charis, Merlin's desire to see Thirsk's industry complex to survive is the primary logical reason why Merlin is there. Something that would be kind of hard to explain to Thirsk though, much like the industry buildup in Siddarmark.

Merlin doesn't have specifics on Clyntahn's plans for Thirsk although he can guess in a general way which Thirsk can also do. But the discussion about what Clyntahn intends for Thirsk happened in the Temple where Merlin doesn't go with his snarcs.

Don

If I were Thirsk I would test Charis's intentions by demanding my family be allowed to move to some more or less safe place outside Charisian jurisdiction.