Misdirection by MWW, Rainbow Waters vs Thursk, HFQ SPOILERS

I doubt Charis can risk sending a land force into Harchong, there is well over 2 million troops heading into Siddarmark next spring. IIRC there is maybe 1-1.5 million to defend and the HoGaA will have a much closer weapon parity with competent leadership.

Besides Rainbow Water gets his orders for the CoGA (Clyntahn) who will quite happily let Harchong cities burn to kill off the heretics in Siddarmark.

Not feed the Mighty Host...? Have you heard the one about the hound dog that caught the slash lizard?

CJK wrote:
[Snip]

Besides Rainbow Water gets his orders for the CoGA (Clyntahn) who will quite ahppily let Harchong cities burn to kill off the heretics in Siddarmark.

Rainbow Waters is already not obeying Clyntahn by not over extending his army as Clyntahn ordered. If Clyntahn acts against Rainbow Waters as more of his precious camps are overran, it is quite possible he'll see a revolt, and a collapse of the front. "Who ever it is will face the punishment."

No one can carry out what Clyntahn orders, which is why Rainbow Waters should get away with it. After all he is the military commander with plenty of experience in the word games required, it is unlikely he will be called on it as he is carrying out the orders as practically as possible. If the... details of exactly how those orders are carried out are glossed over that's politics.

As an aside Clyntahn should not be in a position to move against Rainbow Waters regardless. Removing him would require a replacement and they may be very hard to find. Rainbow Waters is the fifth commander of the HoGaA the rest were removed for incompetence/resistance to change. NTM Rainbow Waters being a Harchong noble must have superb connections, Earl Hennet for instance got away from the inquisition over the disaster of the army of justice.

Finally consider how Clyntahn is finally feeling fear, if the HoGaA is lost the CoGA is screwed as well. Predicting Clyntahn is near impossible but there is good reason to think that he would hesitate to weaken the last remaining allied army he has. Especially in light of how much faith he has had in Harchong in the past.

CJK wrote:No one can carry out what Clyntahn orders, which is why Rainbow Waters should get away with it. After all he is the military commander with plenty of experience in the word games required, it is unlikely he will be called on it as he is carrying out the orders as practically as possible. If the... details of exactly how those orders are carried out are glossed over that's politics.

As an aside Clyntahn should not be in a position to move against Rainbow Waters regardless. Removing him would require a replacement and they may be very hard to find. Rainbow Waters is the fifth commander of the HoGaA the rest were removed for incompetence/resistance to change. NTM Rainbow Waters being a Harchong noble must have superb connections, Earl Hennet for instance got away from the inquisition over the disaster of the army of justice.

Finally consider how Clyntahn is finally feeling fear, if the HoGaA is lost the CoGA is screwed as well. Predicting Clyntahn is near impossible but there is good reason to think that he would hesitate to weaken the last remaining allied army he has. Especially in light of how much faith he has had in Harchong in the past.

Good post, but one qualification. Clyntahn might not think of moving against Rainbow Wzaters as "weakening" the army.

Don

Clyntahn has a way of seeing the world as he thinks it should be and go, not how it actually works. He also hasn't seemed to have learned any lessons about unintended consequences.

pokermind wrote:

martin wrote:A few facts bear on this.

1) Rainbow Waters is an aristocrat, not a peasant.

2) Rayno doesn't like what he has done with 'The Mighty Host...."

3) The Mighty Host is the only Temple army with any realistic chance of standing up to Charis. If they turn to the Alliance, there's not much of story.

1) who is unpopular among the other aristocrats, and this would not be the first peasant revolt led by an aristocrat.

2) you don't think Rainbow Waters does not know this.

3) The war ends one way or another in the next book, by Weber's timetable so your point is?

Poker

1) True, it's possible

2) Of course he knows, but he is fully committed to the CoGA

3) I didn't know that.

Mr Weber is a great writer. However his track record on progressing stories on sched isn't great. We will have to wait and see. Of course, end of the war leaves the return of the Archangels and the Gbaba yet future. So maybe...

Ramhawkfan wrote:Clyntahn has a way of seeing the world as he thinks it should be and go, not how it actually works. He also hasn't seemed to have learned any lessons about unintended consequences.

Cannot argue about the insanity of Clyntahn, which is why the word games should matter more than otherwise. Also consider how the HoGaA inquisitor is backing Rainbow Water's logic, not demanding the impossible Clyntahn does.

Though if you want to talk about unintended consequences there is the Bishop Militant Bahrnabai Wyrshym and his intendant Auxiliary Bishop Ernyst Abernethy. THEY just died in the service of the jihad and their families are being given the question. I doubt this will go unnoticed by the temple guard and when it comes to conflict with inquisitors vs temple guard I expect the professional military force to win.

CJK wrote:

Ramhawkfan wrote:Clyntahn has a way of seeing the world as he thinks it should be and go, not how it actually works. He also hasn't seemed to have learned any lessons about unintended consequences.

Cannot argue about the insanity of Clyntahn, which is why the word games should matter more than otherwise. Also consider how the HoGaA inquisitor is backing Rainbow Water's logic, not demanding the impossible Clyntahn does.

Though if you want to talk about unintended consequences there is the Bishop Militant Bahrnabai Wyrshym and his intendant Auxiliary Bishop Ernyst Abernethy. THEY just died in the service of the jihad and their families are being given the question. I doubt this will go unnoticed by the temple guard and when it comes to conflict with inquisitors vs temple guard I expect the professional military force to win.

Wyrshym is probably in custody as a POW. His intendant was probably killed as an inquisitor.

Don

Yes my mistake on Bishop Militant Bahrnabai Wyrshym, he was offered surrender terms and we have no text saying he committed suicide afterwards like Kaitswyrth. My point remains that torturing and killing your general's family for disobeying what any military commander knows are impossible orders has consequences. Usually by making the next general vastly more concerned about watching his back than the enemy in front.